Relative Intelligence · Freight & Logistics

How United Parcel Service (UPS) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on UPS alone. It places UPS (United Parcel Service, Inc.) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where UPS stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: UPS's full trading record, from November 1999 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowUPS is 46.5% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.3% below a record. UPS has gone against the market, falling 11.5% over the past 3 months while the S&P 500 rose 3.9%. At a glance ↓
- Stock or market?Not a move of its own: the freight & logistics ETF IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation ETF) fell 9.3% over the past 3 months, with ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line, down 18.6%) and XPO (XPO Logistics, down 11.3%), while the S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Its freight & logistics peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: DSGX (Descartes Systems Group) rose 22.5%, while CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide) fell 31.4%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsOver the past year, UPS rose 20.8% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. On the flip side, the last two calendar years both went the same way: UPS fell 15.9% in 2025, against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. By year ↓
- Long termUPS turned $10,000 into $13,500 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashUPS fell further than the S&P 500 in three of the last four sell-offs, including the 2022 bear market (29.8% against 24.5%). That said, in the Covid crash, UPS fell 18.5%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500, and less than freight & logistics peers such as FDX (FedEx, 44.9%). Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationAgainst the S&P 500, UPS has a correlation of 0.61 over 5 years, more closely than 92% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is more of the same, not a cushion. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Popular alternatives
- NSC (Norfolk Southern), EXPD (Expeditors International of Washington) and CNI (Canadian National Railway) earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. NSC returned 5.3% a year at 24.8% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%.
- Nearby categories and themes
- UNP (Union Pacific, railroads) and TRP (TC Energy, oil & gas midstream) earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. UNP returned 7.1% a year at 22.9% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%.
- Versus the S&P 500
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 8.6% at 28.9% for UPS.
How much would $10,000 in UPS have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in UPS over the past 26 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of UPS over the same span and UPS's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in UPS at the end of September 2000 would have grown to $35,665 by September 2026, less than the $84,332 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Seven of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of UPS, and ODFL finished highest, at $4,086,312.
Choose a period
From the end of September 2000 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 1,008 of the 1,261 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of UPS; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- ODFL$4M+40,763% total · +26.0% a year
- AMZN$1M+12,876% total · +20.6% a year
- CNI$391,125+3,811% total · +15.1% a year
- NSC$366,111+3,561% total · +14.9% a year
- KNX$257,458+2,475% total · +13.3% a year
- EXPD$211,732+2,017% total · +12.5% a year
- ARCB$105,499+955% total · +9.5% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$84,332+743% total · +8.5% a year
- UPS$35,665+257% total · +5.0% a year
- DSGX$16,336+63.4% total · +1.9% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 3,087 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of UPS; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- XPO$37,221+272% total · +30.1% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- EXPD$16,419+64.2% total · +10.4% a year
- ARCB$15,970+59.7% total · +9.8% a year
- SNDR$15,016+50.2% total · +8.5% a year
- NSC$14,343+43.4% total · +7.5% a year
- ODFL$12,474+24.7% total · +4.5% a year
- CNI$11,429+14.3% total · +2.7% a year
- DSGX$9,951−0.5% total · −0.1% a year
- UPS$6,501−35.0% total · −8.3% a year
UPS at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- UPS is still 46.5% below its all-time high.
- UPS's deepest decline since it began trading in 1999 was 57.9%, from February 2022 to September 2025. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over 26 full calendar years, UPS's best was 2020, when it returned 48.6%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 19.8%. It lost money in 11 of those years.
The company
- Market value
- $74B
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- Price history from
- November 1999
Returns
- Past 1 year
- +20.8%total return
- Past 3 years
- −23.0%−8.4% a year
- Past 5 years
- −36.1%−8.6% a year
- Past 10 years
- +35.4%+3.1% a year
- Best calendar year
- +48.6%2020
- Worst calendar year
- −19.8%2008
- Losing years
- 11 of 26full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 28.9%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- -0.17return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −57.9%Feb 2022 to Sep 2025
- From its all-time high
- −46.5%below the peak
UPS against the whole market
Where UPS ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does UPS rank among all stocks?
This section ranks UPS on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how UPS stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), UPS ranks in the bottom 9% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.
- UPS is among the steadier stocks: its price swings rank in the top 22% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top is the calmest.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | UPS | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +20.8% | 1,213 of 3,287 | top 37% |
| 3-year return | −23.0% | 2,628 of 3,017 | bottom 14% |
| 5-year return | −36.1% | 2,241 of 2,893 | bottom 24% |
| 10-year return | +35.4% | 1,651 of 2,202 | bottom 26% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 28.9% | 632 of 2,893 | top 22% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | -0.17 | 2,634 of 2,893 | bottom 10% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −57.9% | 803 of 2,187 | top 37% |
What has beaten UPS on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). UPS sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than UPS with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 475 stocks and 928 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than UPS over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 39% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half UPS's swings, CAH has the best return for its risk: 42.1% a year at 24.7% volatility, 14% less than UPS's 28.9%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.55 against -0.17 for UPS.
- Among UPS's popular alternatives, EXPD, NSC and STAG are in the region. EXPD earned 12.0% a year against a loss of 8.6% a year for UPS, at 27.1% volatility, 6% less than UPS's 28.9%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to UPS; faint dots are 94 more of the 1,403 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than UPS?
Investments that beat UPS over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among UPS's popular alternatives, NSC, EXPD and CNI earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. NSC returned 5.3% a year at 24.8% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, UNP (railroads) and TRP (oil & gas midstream) earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. UNP returned 7.1% a year at 22.9% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%.
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 8.6% at 28.9% for UPS.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat UPS over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks UPS's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than UPS follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than UPS's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× UPS's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than UPS's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with UPS?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| −8.6% | 28.9% | -0.17 | −57.9% | +35.4% | 1.00 | — | |||
| +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | 0.61 | 0.09% | |||
| Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against UPS. 14 of 19 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +5.3% | 24.8% | 0.33 | −44.4% | +328% | 0.53 | — | ||
EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. · Freight & Logistics | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +12.0% | 27.1% | 0.56 | −35.6% | +349% | 0.46 | — | |
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +0.6% | 21.9% | 0.14 | −29.1% | +124% | 0.68 | — | ||
SNDRSchneider National, Inc. · Freight & Logistics | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +6.2% | 31.5% | 0.35 | −44.0% | — | 0.54 | — | |
DSGXThe Descartes Systems Group Inc. · Application Software | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +1.8% | 31.8% | 0.21 | −48.7% | +324% | 0.13 | — | |
STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc. · Industrial REITs | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +0.6% | 23.5% | 0.14 | −45.1% | +145% | 0.58 | — | |
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Freight & Logistics and the categories next to it (Railroads, Oil & Gas, E-Commerce, Commercial Vehicles), plus UPS's specific themes. 67 of 106 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +7.1% | 22.9% | 0.42 | −38.7% | +295% | 0.63 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +10.8% | 21.9% | 0.58 | −41.6% | +160% | 0.32 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +8.3% | 23.3% | 0.46 | −40.5% | +446% | 0.58 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +4.0% | 24.1% | 0.28 | −33.7% | +227% | 0.61 | — | ||
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | 0.38 | — | ||
LSTRLandstar System, Inc. · Freight & Logistics | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +2.2% | 28.2% | 0.22 | −38.8% | +190% | 0.62 | — | |
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 2,156 of 3,508 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +3.8% | 0.3% | 13.25 | −0.3% | — | -0.06 | 0.09% | ||
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.43 | — | ||
FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | -0.01 | 0.15% | |
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.34 | — | ||
JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.07 | 0.20% | |
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.28 | — | |
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +18.5% | 28.0% | 0.75 | −38.5% | +1,168% | 0.39 | — | ||
| Similar return, lower volatility | −8.1% | 20.3% | -0.32 | −40.3% | −19.5% | 0.14 | — | ||
What these numbers mean for UPS
- Annual return
- UPS lost 8.6% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $6,390. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- UPS's volatility over the past 5 years was 28.9%, 1.7 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, UPS's return lands within 28.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- UPS's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.17, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so UPS earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- UPS's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 57.9%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 57.9% fall takes a 138% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, UPS's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.61 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against UPS instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a UPS holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 1,403 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than UPS with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with UPS | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whole market | +3.8% | 0.3% | 13.25 | −0.3% | — | -0.06 | 0.09% | |
| 2 | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.43 | — | |
| 3 | FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | -0.01 | 0.15% |
| 4 | Whole market | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.34 | — | |
| 5 | JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds | Whole market | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.07 | 0.20% |
| 6 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.28 | — |
| 7 | FLRNState Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.7% | 2.58 | −14.7% | +35.9% | 0.05 | 0.15% |
| 8 | Whole market | +11.5% | 17.5% | 0.71 | −35.0% | +302% | 0.62 | 0.03% | |
| 9 | Whole market | +12.8% | 16.9% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +324% | 0.61 | 0.03% | |
| 10 | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.31 | — | |
| 11 | Whole market | +17.3% | 24.3% | 0.78 | −43.6% | +537% | 0.33 | — | |
| 12 | Whole market | +26.1% | 23.4% | 1.11 | −45.1% | +603% | 0.27 | — | |
| 13 | Whole market | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.19 | — | |
| 14 | Whole market | +12.8% | 22.9% | 0.64 | −36.4% | +429% | 0.37 | — | |
| 15 | DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity | Whole market | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.46 | 0.48% |
| 16 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.51 | 0.40% |
| 17 | Whole market | +14.7% | 16.8% | 0.91 | −37.0% | +204% | 0.50 | — | |
| 18 | BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · Crypto | Whole market | +6.3% | 3.3% | 1.85 | −4.9% | — | 0.51 | 0.69% |
| 19 | Whole market | +17.4% | 22.9% | 0.82 | −31.4% | +685% | 0.44 | — | |
| 20 | Whole market | +8.2% | 16.4% | 0.57 | −36.0% | +140% | 0.67 | 0.05% | |
| 21 | Whole market | +14.5% | 23.0% | 0.71 | −35.1% | +553% | 0.53 | 0.18% | |
| 22 | Whole market | +12.4% | 23.8% | 0.61 | −41.0% | +541% | 0.27 | — | |
| 23 | Whole market | +21.0% | 23.4% | 0.94 | −42.9% | +242% | 0.27 | — | |
| 24 | Whole market | +16.8% | 26.1% | 0.73 | −42.0% | +374% | 0.47 | — | |
| 25 | Whole market | +38.7% | 25.0% | 1.44 | −38.1% | +586% | 0.19 | — | |
| 26 | Whole market | +16.3% | 24.8% | 0.74 | −43.4% | +241% | 0.20 | — | |
| 27 | Whole market | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.36 | — | |
| 28 | Whole market | +12.1% | 13.7% | 0.90 | −36.8% | +235% | 0.63 | 0.03% | |
| 29 | VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | −13.1% | +40.5% | 0.04 | 0.30% |
| 30 | Whole market | +18.6% | 24.3% | 0.83 | −52.0% | +317% | 0.19 | — | |
| 31 | Whole market | +19.6% | 24.9% | 0.85 | −24.9% | +266% | 0.23 | — | |
| 32 | Whole market | +22.8% | 24.9% | 0.95 | −30.5% | +200% | 0.20 | — | |
| 33 | Whole market | +9.3% | 16.9% | 0.61 | −35.8% | +153% | 0.65 | 0.03% | |
| 34 | Whole market | +15.8% | 20.0% | 0.84 | −42.0% | +310% | 0.47 | — | |
| 35 | DBAInvesco DB Agriculture Fund · Alternatives | Whole market | +10.7% | 13.8% | 0.81 | −35.3% | +62.2% | 0.06 | 0.90% |
| 36 | AOMiShares Core 40/60 Moderate Allocation ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +4.4% | 8.3% | 0.56 | −20.0% | +77.8% | 0.64 | 0.20% |
| 37 | Whole market | +5.1% | 18.3% | 0.37 | −23.8% | +145% | 0.41 | — | |
| 38 | Whole market | +11.5% | 20.9% | 0.63 | −32.6% | +394% | 0.43 | — | |
| 39 | Whole market | +18.4% | 26.0% | 0.78 | −35.1% | +779% | 0.48 | 0.09% | |
| 40 | FLRTPacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF · Financials | Whole market | +6.0% | 2.3% | 2.55 | −21.0% | +58.0% | 0.29 | 0.60% |
| 41 | Whole market | +21.3% | 25.6% | 0.89 | −30.3% | +816% | 0.18 | — | |
| 42 | FTQIFirst Trust Nasdaq BuyWrite Income ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.8% | 0.82 | −19.4% | +121% | 0.51 | 0.75% |
| 43 | Whole market | +15.7% | 20.4% | 0.82 | −42.6% | +248% | 0.36 | — | |
| 44 | Whole market | +22.7% | 24.4% | 0.97 | −50.5% | +341% | 0.42 | — | |
| 45 | Whole market | +19.2% | 21.6% | 0.93 | −47.3% | +395% | 0.51 | — | |
| 46 | Whole market | +6.8% | 17.6% | 0.47 | −39.4% | +198% | 0.64 | 0.03% | |
| 47 | Whole market | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.78 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.64 | 0.04% | |
| 48 | Whole market | +22.4% | 22.3% | 1.02 | −46.3% | +347% | 0.28 | — | |
| 49 | QAINYLI Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +4.1% | 6.8% | 0.64 | −14.9% | +44.1% | 0.65 | 0.75% |
| 50 | Whole market | +24.2% | 22.8% | 1.07 | −32.4% | +406% | 0.32 | — | |
| 51 | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.3% | 0.72 | −33.4% | +252% | 0.62 | 0.06% | |
| 52 | Whole market | +13.6% | 21.4% | 0.71 | −51.0% | +295% | 0.51 | — | |
| 53 | Whole market | −0.4% | 6.1% | -0.03 | −18.6% | +13.2% | 0.50 | 0.03% | |
| 54 | Whole market | +26.3% | 24.9% | 1.07 | −41.6% | +654% | 0.49 | — | |
| 55 | Whole market | +12.9% | 19.9% | 0.71 | −46.9% | +187% | 0.60 | — | |
| 56 | Whole market | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +32.7% | 0.36 | 0.03% | |
| 57 | Whole market | +6.2% | 20.6% | 0.40 | −42.0% | +179% | 0.61 | 0.03% | |
| 58 | Whole market | +7.1% | 27.1% | 0.39 | −43.9% | +313% | 0.49 | — | |
| 59 | Whole market | +21.0% | 26.8% | 0.85 | −50.8% | +694% | 0.47 | — | |
| 60 | Whole market | +17.2% | 24.9% | 0.77 | −30.4% | +285% | 0.41 | — | |
| 61 | Whole market | +11.1% | 24.2% | 0.56 | −36.7% | +204% | 0.16 | — | |
| 62 | Whole market | +10.3% | 16.2% | 0.69 | −34.2% | +223% | 0.67 | 0.06% | |
| 63 | Whole market | +11.3% | 18.8% | 0.67 | −38.4% | +170% | 0.25 | — | |
| 64 | Whole market | +16.5% | 23.1% | 0.78 | −48.4% | +808% | 0.36 | — | |
| 65 | Whole market | +6.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | −38.7% | +122% | 0.64 | 0.09% | |
| 66 | Whole market | +5.2% | 17.5% | 0.38 | −36.4% | +102% | 0.63 | 0.06% | |
| 67 | Whole market | +5.2% | 8.9% | 0.61 | −25.4% | +37.8% | 0.09 | — | |
| 68 | Whole market | +11.2% | 20.8% | 0.62 | −37.4% | +319% | 0.32 | — | |
| 69 | Whole market | +12.9% | 20.8% | 0.69 | −51.6% | +184% | 0.28 | — | |
| 70 | Whole market | +2.7% | 22.9% | 0.23 | −41.2% | +55.8% | 0.18 | — | |
| 71 | Whole market | +13.9% | 18.5% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +446% | 0.32 | — | |
| 72 | Whole market | +9.0% | 22.9% | 0.49 | −40.8% | +320% | 0.31 | — | |
| 73 | Whole market | +5.5% | 21.5% | 0.36 | −30.1% | +89.8% | 0.39 | — | |
| 74 | PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.5% | 8.6% | 1.20 | −18.2% | — | 0.63 | 0.79% |
| 75 | Whole market | +8.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | −39.0% | +211% | 0.66 | 0.20% | |
| 76 | Whole market | +15.9% | 23.4% | 0.75 | −42.0% | +393% | 0.10 | — | |
| 77 | Whole market | +14.8% | 23.6% | 0.71 | −32.8% | +625% | 0.42 | — | |
| 78 | CDCVictoryShares US EQ Income Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +6.0% | 12.5% | 0.53 | −21.4% | +168% | 0.54 | 0.38% |
| 79 | Whole market | +9.3% | 19.2% | 0.56 | −30.1% | +344% | 0.28 | — | |
| 80 | Whole market | +11.8% | 22.6% | 0.61 | −39.2% | +118% | 0.55 | — | |
| 81 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +11.1% | 10.5% | 1.05 | −13.6% | — | 0.57 | 0.85% |
| 82 | Whole market | +5.5% | 24.9% | 0.34 | −47.7% | +74.8% | 0.32 | — | |
| 83 | Whole market | +19.7% | 23.2% | 0.90 | −48.8% | +292% | 0.33 | — | |
| 84 | Whole market | +7.5% | 18.0% | 0.50 | −37.4% | +132% | 0.36 | — | |
| 85 | Whole market | +12.4% | 20.2% | 0.68 | −32.9% | +185% | 0.45 | — | |
| 86 | Whole market | +17.0% | 26.2% | 0.73 | −41.4% | +356% | 0.07 | — | |
| 87 | Whole market | +1.7% | 2.8% | 0.63 | −8.5% | +20.5% | 0.32 | 0.03% | |
| 88 | Whole market | +15.8% | 24.6% | 0.72 | −30.7% | +576% | 0.22 | — | |
| 89 | Whole market | −1.7% | 23.1% | 0.04 | −39.6% | +204% | 0.32 | — | |
| 90 | Whole market | +13.1% | 22.4% | 0.67 | −34.5% | +451% | 0.51 | 0.04% | |
| 91 | Whole market | +14.4% | 22.1% | 0.72 | −42.7% | +481% | 0.60 | — | |
| 92 | Whole market | +14.7% | 17.5% | 0.87 | −34.7% | — | 0.60 | 0.26% | |
| 93 | Whole market | +0.7% | 25.6% | 0.16 | −39.8% | +293% | 0.40 | — | |
| 94 | Whole market | +10.9% | 24.2% | 0.55 | −44.4% | +516% | 0.21 | — | |
| 95 | Whole market | +7.2% | 19.2% | 0.46 | −29.0% | +68.8% | 0.40 | — | |
| 96 | Whole market | +5.4% | 21.8% | 0.35 | −34.3% | +240% | 0.37 | — | |
| 97 | Whole market | +4.9% | 22.4% | 0.33 | −41.7% | +194% | 0.57 | 0.05% | |
| 98 | Whole market | +6.7% | 21.4% | 0.41 | −37.9% | +208% | 0.53 | — | |
| 99 | Whole market | +6.7% | 24.1% | 0.39 | −43.7% | +176% | 0.48 | — | |
| 100 | Whole market | +4.4% | 20.9% | 0.31 | −35.8% | +245% | 0.41 | — |
UPS against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against UPS, compared period by period and year by year.
How do UPS's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at UPS, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- Four of the 19 popular alternatives, led by EXPD, NSC and CNI, were both more rewarding and calmer than UPS over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, UPS returned -8.6% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (28.9% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than UPS with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | +30.5% | 47.0% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | +12.0% | 27.1% |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | +12.0% | 32.8% |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | +9.9% | 34.4% |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | +9.3% | 49.5% |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | +9.0% | 36.6% |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | +6.2% | 31.5% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | +5.3% | 24.8% |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | +4.6% | 51.8% |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | +4.3% | 36.9% |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | +4.3% | 33.9% |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | +4.0% | 32.8% |
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | +1.8% | 31.8% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | +1.0% | 37.7% |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | +0.6% | 21.9% |
| STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | +0.6% | 23.5% |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | −6.3% | 35.9% |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | −6.9% | 31.7% |
| UPS This pageUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | −8.6% | 28.9% |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | −10.9% | 42.2% |
Has UPS consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares UPS with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than UPS helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- 11 of the 20 popular alternatives, led by EXPD, NSC and DSGX, outperformed UPS in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- EXPD, NSC and DSGX outperformed UPS in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- EXPD, CHRW and AMZN earned more for the risk they took than UPS (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than UPS over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. (this page) | — | +4.0% | −11.5% | −5.0% | +2.2% | +20.8% | −23.0% | −36.1% | +35.4% | 28.9% | -0.17 | −57.9% | — | $74B | — |
| EXPD QualifiedExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +3.3% | +11.9% | +33.6% | +31.3% | +66.5% | +78.4% | +76.6% | +349% | 27.1% | 0.56 | −35.6% | — | $26B | — |
| NSC QualifiedNorfolk Southern Corporation | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +5.3% | −2.4% | +7.9% | +14.6% | +13.8% | +72.0% | +29.5% | +328% | 24.8% | 0.33 | −44.4% | — | $73B | — |
| DSGX QualifiedThe Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +13.7% | +22.5% | +17.3% | +6.0% | −5.9% | +24.5% | +9.2% | +324% | 31.8% | 0.21 | −48.7% | — | $7.7B | — |
| CNI QualifiedCanadian National Railway Company | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +3.2% | −3.8% | +10.2% | +23.0% | +30.2% | +21.9% | +3.1% | +124% | 21.9% | 0.14 | −29.1% | — | $73B | — |
| XPO QualifiedXPO Logistics, Inc. | 3/5 short3/3 long | +7.1% | −11.3% | −18.2% | +34.6% | +39.6% | +159% | +278% | +1,467% | 47.0% | 0.80 | −64.5% | — | $22B | — |
| ODFL QualifiedOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 3/5 short3/3 long | +7.4% | −18.6% | −15.5% | +18.8% | +34.7% | −2.5% | +23.4% | +747% | 36.9% | 0.30 | −45.2% | — | $39B | — |
| ARCB QualifiedArcBest Corp | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.2% | −17.8% | +9.3% | +69.0% | +73.5% | +39.6% | +56.1% | +633% | 49.5% | 0.43 | −67.8% | — | $2.9B | — |
| AMZN QualifiedAmazon.com, Inc. | 3/5 short3/3 long | +1.6% | +5.1% | +5.8% | +16.0% | +21.3% | +110% | +53.8% | +548% | 36.6% | 0.42 | −56.1% | — | $2.8T | — |
| KNX QualifiedKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 3/5 short3/3 long | −5.1% | −16.1% | −3.0% | +22.2% | +34.6% | +28.2% | +23.3% | +156% | 33.9% | 0.29 | −51.6% | — | $10B | — |
| FDX QualifiedFedEx Corporation | 3/5 short3/3 long | +1.0% | −2.1% | −5.4% | +27.6% | +56.7% | +63.1% | +76.6% | +156% | 32.8% | 0.52 | −66.0% | — | $71B | — |
| SNDR QualifiedSchneider National, Inc. | 3/5 short2/3 long | −4.5% | −17.4% | +3.4% | +15.5% | +32.6% | +20.9% | +35.1% | — | 31.5% | 0.35 | −44.0% | — | $5.4B | — |
| JBHT Integrated Freight & LogisticsJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 2/5 short3/3 long | −4.1% | −22.0% | −9.7% | +15.7% | +37.9% | +32.2% | +21.6% | +220% | 32.8% | 0.28 | −42.4% | — | $21B | — |
| TFII TruckingTFI International Inc. | 1/5 short3/3 long | −10.9% | −26.1% | −17.4% | +5.8% | +17.6% | −1.6% | +5.2% | +537% | 37.7% | 0.22 | −53.8% | — | $9.2B | — |
| SAIA TruckingSaia, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | −4.1% | −22.0% | −25.2% | −1.0% | +7.5% | −12.9% | +25.2% | +1,050% | 51.8% | 0.35 | −60.9% | — | $8.9B | — |
| CHRW Integrated Freight & LogisticsC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | −8.0% | −31.4% | −23.0% | −13.2% | +12.0% | +76.2% | +60.0% | +157% | 34.4% | 0.45 | −40.6% | — | $16B | — |
| STAG REIT - IndustrialSTAG Industrial, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | −1.4% | −11.6% | −6.4% | +2.3% | −1.7% | +27.0% | +2.9% | +145% | 23.5% | 0.14 | −45.1% | — | $7.1B | — |
| WERN TruckingWerner Enterprises, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | −14.6% | −35.4% | −10.4% | −1.1% | +7.2% | −17.2% | −29.9% | +66.8% | 31.7% | -0.07 | −51.1% | — | $1.8B | — |
| HUBG Integrated Freight & LogisticsHub Group, Inc. | 0/5 short2/3 long | −17.7% | −48.0% | −39.7% | −38.4% | −28.8% | −29.8% | −27.6% | +38.4% | 35.9% | 0.00 | −50.6% | — | $1.6B | — |
| RXO TruckingRXO, Inc. | 5/5 short1/3 long | +45.4% | −0.7% | +46.6% | +123% | +58.0% | +52.3% | — | — | — | — | −67.2% | — | $4.7B | — |
| GXO Integrated Freight & LogisticsGXO Logistics, Inc. | 2/5 short1/3 long | +5.9% | −8.9% | −18.8% | −11.4% | −12.3% | −8.0% | −43.8% | — | 42.2% | -0.06 | −69.6% | — | $5.5B | — |
How did UPS do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2000, along with where UPS ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with UPS and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- UPS finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 11 of its 26 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last three.
- Among its popular alternatives, ODFL came out ahead of UPS most often, in 21 of the 26 years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, UPS finished in the top quarter in one of 26 years and in the bottom quarter in seven. In 2025, it ranked 16 of 21.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of UPS; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places UPS among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of UPS | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS This pageUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | — | −15.9% | −15.9% | −6.0% | −16.2% | +30.0% | +48.6% | +24.2% | −15.5% | +7.1% | +22.7% | −10.9% | +8.7% | +46.5% | +3.9% | +3.8% | +30.3% | +7.8% | −19.8% | −3.5% | +1.8% | −10.5% | +16.4% | +19.9% | +17.3% | −6.0% | −13.8% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 1 of 26 | 16 of 21 | 18 of 21 | 21 of 21 | 11 of 20 | 12 of 19 | 8 of 19 | 13 of 19 | 11 of 19 | 17 of 18 | 13 of 18 | 4 of 18 | 15 of 18 | 8 of 18 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 17 | 8 of 17 | 14 of 17 | 11 of 17 | 10 of 17 | 10 of 17 | 14 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 15 | 5 of 14 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 14 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 15 of 26 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 14 of 26 | +36.2% | −11.9% | +23.8% | −21.7% | +42.5% | +23.5% | +16.2% | +6.5% | +22.9% | +19.3% | +2.6% | +2.2% | +13.5% | −2.0% | −24.1% | +58.5% | +5.7% | −24.9% | +11.0% | +20.6% | +21.4% | +49.0% | +15.9% | +15.1% | +6.5% | +22.9% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 18 of 26 | +25.7% | +1.6% | −1.6% | −15.6% | +27.3% | +24.8% | +32.4% | +5.2% | +36.8% | +31.5% | −20.3% | +20.8% | +54.2% | −12.7% | +18.8% | +22.8% | +15.2% | −4.8% | +2.2% | +13.8% | +25.6% | +55.3% | +20.2% | +10.4% | +39.5% | −31.8% |
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 14 of 26 | −22.8% | +35.1% | +20.7% | −15.8% | +41.4% | +36.9% | +61.5% | −6.8% | +32.7% | +6.6% | +35.5% | +10.7% | +44.0% | +29.9% | +1.7% | +18.7% | +98.3% | −28.8% | +13.8% | +17.5% | +57.0% | −29.1% | −9.0% | −58.4% | −69.0% | +11.6% |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 16 of 26 | −0.1% | −17.5% | +7.8% | −1.4% | +13.7% | +23.6% | +24.3% | −8.6% | +24.4% | +22.8% | −17.6% | +22.6% | +27.3% | +17.9% | +20.3% | +24.4% | +51.4% | −20.1% | +10.9% | +9.2% | +32.6% | +47.4% | +55.3% | −12.3% | +65.5% | +14.8% |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | 14 of 22 | +3.6% | +49.7% | +163% | −27.7% | +11.6% | +49.5% | +39.7% | −37.7% | +112% | +58.4% | −33.4% | +55.5% | +51.2% | +40.8% | +20.6% | +100% | +11.3% | −6.5% | −3.4% | +441% | −54.6% | +8.8% | — | — | — | — |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 21 of 26 | −10.5% | −12.5% | +43.5% | −20.5% | +84.2% | +54.8% | +54.3% | −5.8% | +53.9% | +45.3% | −23.9% | +46.5% | +54.6% | +26.9% | +26.6% | +56.2% | +7.9% | +23.5% | −4.4% | −10.5% | +16.1% | +53.7% | +78.3% | +125% | +33.5% | −11.6% |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 14 of 26 | −20.0% | −22.1% | +72.4% | −41.3% | +182% | +56.5% | −18.6% | −3.4% | +30.9% | +31.5% | −53.5% | +38.3% | +256% | −50.0% | −29.4% | −6.3% | +0.1% | +39.8% | −38.0% | −16.4% | −1.2% | +44.9% | +22.5% | −9.8% | +57.4% | +52.5% |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 15 of 26 | +5.2% | +44.4% | +80.9% | −49.6% | +2.4% | +76.3% | +23.0% | +28.4% | +56.0% | +10.9% | +118% | −22.2% | +59.0% | +45.0% | −3.9% | +33.7% | +163% | −44.7% | +135% | −16.5% | +6.8% | −16.0% | +178% | +74.6% | −30.5% | −79.6% |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 16 of 26 | +0.1% | −6.9% | +11.1% | −13.2% | +46.8% | +17.6% | +44.0% | −42.3% | +33.4% | +38.0% | −27.3% | +85.4% | +27.2% | −5.1% | −16.4% | −0.3% | +21.1% | +9.7% | −12.5% | −17.3% | +25.9% | +45.1% | +22.1% | +11.8% | +120% | +12.1% |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | 16 of 26 | +5.1% | +13.5% | +49.1% | −31.6% | +0.7% | +74.3% | −4.8% | −34.7% | +35.2% | +26.1% | −13.7% | +21.4% | +57.6% | +10.5% | −9.7% | +12.1% | +31.1% | −27.7% | −17.6% | +5.4% | +5.3% | +46.4% | +24.9% | +4.8% | +61.0% | −2.4% |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | 5 of 8 | −8.0% | +16.8% | +10.2% | −11.8% | +31.5% | +4.9% | +18.2% | −34.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 20 of 26 | +15.2% | −13.8% | +15.6% | −13.9% | +50.6% | +18.1% | +26.8% | −18.4% | +19.6% | +33.8% | −12.0% | +10.1% | +30.2% | +34.2% | +11.8% | +28.2% | +24.8% | −3.4% | +34.4% | −6.9% | +2.1% | +66.5% | +84.3% | +26.4% | +38.0% | +21.6% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 13 of 20 | −21.9% | +0.5% | +37.2% | −9.5% | +120% | +56.2% | +33.5% | +6.7% | −2.3% | +55.8% | −30.8% | +10.7% | +21.1% | +59.6% | +5.2% | +65.0% | +150% | −61.4% | −19.5% | −21.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 16 of 23 | −28.3% | +4.0% | +109% | −37.8% | +86.4% | +94.2% | +66.8% | −21.1% | +60.3% | +98.4% | −59.8% | +72.7% | +108% | +85.2% | −24.8% | +11.9% | +36.5% | −18.4% | −42.7% | +9.2% | −9.0% | +32.9% | +77.3% | — | — | — |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 16 of 26 | +59.0% | +22.9% | −3.1% | −13.1% | +17.2% | +23.0% | −4.7% | −3.6% | +24.6% | +21.0% | −15.1% | +31.3% | −5.4% | −7.4% | −11.5% | +39.4% | +8.8% | +3.5% | +34.3% | +11.8% | +34.9% | +48.0% | +22.6% | +8.7% | −7.2% | +59.2% |
| STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | 10 of 14 | +13.3% | −10.3% | +26.6% | −29.6% | +59.1% | +4.1% | +33.2% | −3.8% | +20.6% | +38.3% | −19.6% | +27.0% | +20.2% | +68.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 14 of 26 | −14.9% | −14.2% | +6.6% | −14.4% | +22.7% | +9.0% | +39.6% | −22.8% | +44.6% | +16.4% | −24.3% | +27.1% | +15.2% | −3.0% | +10.0% | +24.3% | +23.3% | +15.5% | −1.6% | −10.5% | −12.3% | +16.9% | +13.8% | +18.6% | +43.7% | +21.7% |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | 15 of 26 | −3.1% | −2.0% | +15.7% | −5.7% | +47.8% | +11.1% | +38.4% | −22.6% | +9.5% | +32.7% | −13.4% | −4.5% | +18.7% | +3.6% | −7.8% | +31.2% | +0.9% | −0.1% | −3.6% | +55.9% | +35.3% | +143% | +349% | −54.4% | +16.5% | −54.8% |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | 2 of 3 | −47.0% | +2.5% | +35.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | 2 of 4 | +21.0% | −28.9% | +43.3% | −53.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Risk and diversification
How UPS has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were UPS's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents UPS's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1999, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all five of UPS's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: UPS fell 57.9% from February 2022 to September 2025, while the S&P 500 rose 51.7%.
- The slowest recovery came after UPS fell 34.2% from November 1999 to September 2001; it did not regain that peak until October 2003, two years later.
Green means UPS fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | UPS fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 bear market | −57.9% | +51.7% | Feb 2022 | Sep 2025 | 3.6 years | Not yet | — |
| 2008 financial crisis | −51.7% | −38.0% | Dec 2004 | Mar 2009 | 4.3 years | Feb 2011 | 23 months |
| Dot-com bust | −34.2% | −25.0% | Nov 1999 | Sep 2001 | 22 months | Oct 2003 | 2.1 years |
| Late-2018 sell-off | −30.8% | −14.1% | Jan 2018 | Dec 2018 | 11 months | Jul 2020 | 19 months |
| 2015 China and oil sell-off | −20.1% | −8.1% | Jan 2015 | Jan 2016 | 12 months | Jul 2016 | 6 months |
How did UPS do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far UPS, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- None of its popular alternatives fell less than UPS in most of the crashes they both traded through.
- UPS fell less than the S&P 500 in five of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when UPS fell 26.5% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than UPS.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS This pageUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | — | −1.5% | −29.8% | −18.5% | −23.7% | −8.7% | −16.4% | −16.4% | −1.6% | −47.9% | −26.5% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 4 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 3 of 10 | −3.1% | −32.9% | −27.9% | −17.9% | −5.1% | −17.7% | −22.3% | −1.0% | −54.4% | −33.7% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 2 of 10 | −4.0% | −28.4% | −43.6% | −23.8% | −5.6% | −31.7% | −21.1% | −2.1% | −62.9% | −39.9% |
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 2 of 10 | −2.4% | −27.9% | −37.0% | −28.0% | −8.4% | −24.7% | −19.9% | 0.0% | −55.6% | −97.7% |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 5 of 10 | −1.3% | −21.0% | −27.3% | −22.1% | −5.1% | −23.9% | −19.3% | −0.5% | −46.7% | −30.6% |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | 0 of 9 | −9.2% | −46.0% | −59.0% | −61.2% | −9.4% | −52.2% | −58.3% | −3.4% | −52.8% | — |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −6.0% | −34.5% | −28.6% | −28.4% | −10.3% | −31.0% | −26.2% | −3.6% | −50.7% | −33.3% |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 0 of 10 | −8.0% | −42.0% | −33.2% | −33.6% | −10.9% | −47.3% | −41.6% | −3.8% | −63.6% | −40.2% |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −3.4% | −39.6% | −22.7% | −33.2% | −7.1% | −30.6% | −20.7% | −2.9% | −65.3% | −91.8% |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 3 of 10 | −8.7% | −28.3% | −27.9% | −31.8% | −2.8% | −25.1% | −21.6% | −2.0% | −40.8% | −36.7% |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | 1 of 10 | −5.3% | −45.3% | −44.9% | −38.1% | −8.0% | −27.0% | −29.7% | −3.3% | −67.8% | −30.0% |
| SNDR Schneider National, Inc. | 1 of 5 | −6.0% | −24.8% | −24.0% | −29.9% | −8.4% | — | — | — | — | — |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 2 of 10 | −5.5% | −28.8% | −31.5% | −26.6% | −3.0% | −18.8% | −24.8% | −2.4% | −53.1% | −50.9% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 1 of 9 | −5.7% | −34.4% | −52.5% | −32.9% | −4.1% | −30.9% | −39.4% | −2.5% | −81.3% | — |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 0 of 9 | −6.6% | −46.3% | −36.9% | −32.7% | −9.2% | −54.5% | −43.1% | −1.7% | −64.5% | — |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 4 of 10 | −2.0% | −20.9% | −19.1% | −18.8% | −3.5% | −16.9% | −22.5% | −2.2% | −42.3% | −29.3% |
| STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | 1 of 7 | −6.2% | −40.1% | −43.6% | −15.6% | −8.6% | −26.9% | −22.3% | — | — | — |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 3 of 10 | −6.2% | −23.6% | −23.6% | −18.5% | −9.1% | −25.6% | −18.9% | −2.1% | −46.1% | −45.1% |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −6.3% | −28.8% | −33.1% | −28.9% | −8.6% | −32.1% | −31.1% | −4.8% | −62.1% | −74.9% |
| RXO RXO, Inc. | 0 of 1 | −5.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | 0 of 2 | −11.4% | −62.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
How closely does UPS move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares UPS with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- 17 of the 17 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than UPS's 0.57, led by ODFL, DSGX and SAIA.
- DSGX took just 79% of the S&P 500's losses, against 149% for UPS, while still keeping 86% of its gains.
- Over the past 10 years, UPS captured 85% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 149% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.08. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than UPS's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS This pageUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | 85% | 149% | 0.57 | 1.08 |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | 127% | 107% | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| DSGX The Descartes Systems Group Inc. | 86% | 79% | 1.09 | 0.86 |
| SAIA Saia, Inc. | 169% | 162% | 1.04 | 1.73 |
| XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | 190% | 185% | 1.03 | 2.03 |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 134% | 139% | 0.96 | 1.31 |
| ARCB ArcBest Corp | 155% | 166% | 0.94 | 1.68 |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 150% | 159% | 0.94 | 1.58 |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 118% | 135% | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 123% | 147% | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 87% | 106% | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 109% | 137% | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company | 80% | 105% | 0.77 | 0.89 |
| STAG STAG Industrial, Inc. | 85% | 110% | 0.77 | 0.94 |
| KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | 111% | 156% | 0.72 | 1.25 |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | 116% | 166% | 0.70 | 1.29 |
| WERN Werner Enterprises, Inc. | 99% | 151% | 0.66 | 1.06 |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | 100% | 167% | 0.60 | 1.13 |
What diversifies UPS?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with UPS's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing UPS with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in UPS into GLD would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 16% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (-8.2% for UPS alone, -2.8% for the mix).
- FIX made money in nine of the 11 calendar years in which UPS lost money.
- Among large ETFs, DXJ, MLPX and SMH have moved largely independently of UPS over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.49 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which UPS lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% UPS and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2008 | 2007 | 2005 | 2001 | 2000 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | −36.1% | -0.17 | −15.9% | −15.9% | −6.0% | −16.2% | −15.5% | −10.9% | −19.8% | −3.5% | −10.5% | −6.0% | −13.8% | 27.4% | −8.3% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.46 | +225% | 1.34 | +32.8% | +29.8% | +42.0% | +6.0% | −19.8% | +7.7% | −20.8% | −7.4% | — | — | — | 23.2% | −1.6% |
| MLPX EnergyGlobal X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | 0.43 | +135% | 0.97 | +4.9% | +42.9% | +15.8% | +21.5% | −15.5% | −35.3% | — | — | — | — | — | 23.7% | −2.6% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.49 | +323% | 0.97 | +49.2% | +39.1% | +73.4% | −33.5% | −9.1% | −0.3% | −44.7% | +6.0% | +10.8% | −14.6% | — | 26.0% | +0.4% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.27 | +126% | 0.96 | +63.7% | +26.7% | +12.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | −10.7% | +4.9% | +30.4% | +17.8% | — | — | 23.1% | −2.8% |
| SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.42 | +136% | 0.93 | +26.6% | +45.8% | +17.6% | −10.4% | −0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.9% | −2.3% |
| XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.31 | +177% | 0.93 | +7.9% | +5.6% | −0.6% | +64.4% | −18.2% | −21.5% | −39.0% | +36.8% | +40.1% | −18.2% | +24.4% | 24.0% | −1.9% |
| EUFN InternationaliShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF | 0.44 | +133% | 0.89 | +65.8% | +17.2% | +26.1% | −8.8% | −23.1% | −4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 23.9% | −2.5% |
| AMLP EnergyAlerian MLP ETF | 0.34 | +111% | 0.89 | +5.8% | +22.8% | +21.4% | +25.5% | −12.6% | −25.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | −2.8% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2008 | 2007 | 2005 | 2001 | 2000 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | −36.1% | -0.17 | −15.9% | −15.9% | −6.0% | −16.2% | −15.5% | −10.9% | −19.8% | −3.5% | −10.5% | −6.0% | −13.8% | 27.4% | −8.3% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.34 | +479% | 1.55 | +76.3% | +19.0% | +34.1% | +54.1% | −24.5% | +12.6% | −39.6% | −9.8% | +18.7% | −2.5% | +108% | 24.2% | +0.4% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.19 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +220% | +215% | +160% | +1.3% | −16.3% | −6.0% | −20.5% | −25.7% | −25.2% | −25.6% | −2.3% | 26.7% | +11.5% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.33 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +121% | +107% | +79.6% | +17.0% | +0.8% | +67.7% | −15.2% | +2.1% | +20.1% | +73.7% | −71.1% | 26.3% | +7.8% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.19 | +413% | 1.44 | +44.5% | +23.7% | +24.1% | +51.8% | −28.4% | −4.5% | −40.4% | +29.7% | +64.9% | +4.9% | +61.2% | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.17 | +690% | 1.41 | +19.2% | −4.0% | +30.4% | +86.6% | −8.2% | +17.4% | — | — | — | — | — | 23.8% | +2.4% |
Common questions
What was UPS's worst drawdown?
UPS's deepest decline since it began trading in 1999 was 57.9%, from February 2022 to September 2025. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
What were UPS's best and worst years?
Over 26 full calendar years, UPS's best year was 2020, when it returned 48.6%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -19.8%.
Is there a better investment than UPS?
Among UPS's popular alternatives, NSC, EXPD and CNI earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. NSC returned 5.3% a year at 24.8% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, UNP (railroads) and TRP (oil & gas midstream) earned more than UPS with less volatility over the past 5 years. UNP returned 7.1% a year at 22.9% volatility, against a loss of 8.6% a year at 28.9%.
Is UPS more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. UPS's volatility over the past 5 years was 28.9%, 1.7 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, UPS's return lands within 28.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is UPS's Sharpe ratio?
UPS's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.17, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so UPS earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is UPS with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, UPS's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.61 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against UPS instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a UPS holding.
What are the best alternatives to UPS?
Of the 20 popular alternatives we compared, 11 outperformed UPS in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: EXPD, NSC and DSGX.
Did UPS outperform the S&P 500?
UPS finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 11 of 26 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -15.9%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did UPS do in stock market crashes?
UPS fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in five of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in four. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when UPS fell 26.5% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
What diversifies UPS?
These had a low correlation with UPS over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, DXJ (correlation 0.46), MLPX (correlation 0.43) and SMH (correlation 0.49); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.34), CLS (correlation 0.19) and FIX (correlation 0.33). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than UPS's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of UPS's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.