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Relative Intelligence · Discount Retail

How Costco Wholesale (COST) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on COST alone. It places COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) against 19 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where COST stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: COST's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against COST →Chart COST vs. 19 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in COST have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in COST over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of COST over the same span and COST's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Choose a period

From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 57 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of COST; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$100,000$1M$10M199720022007201220172022$10,000$100,000$1M$10M19972004201120182025
  • AAPL$21M+205,249% total · +30.1% a year
  • AMZN$11M+114,749% total · +27.5% a year
  • ROST$1M+14,044% total · +18.6% a year
  • ASML$984,088+9,741% total · +17.1% a year
  • TJX$958,745+9,487% total · +17.0% a year
  • COST$727,732+7,177% total · +15.9% a year
  • BJRI$285,031+2,750% total · +12.2% a year
  • WMT$272,033+2,620% total · +12.1% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
  • PSMT$118,754+1,088% total · +8.9% a year
Change the dates or add tickers to this chart in EasyCompare

From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 695 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of COST; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000202120222023202420252026$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000202120222023202420252026
  • MPLX$30,642+206% total · +25.1% a year
  • KOF$23,968+140% total · +19.1% a year
  • WMT$23,813+138% total · +18.9% a year
  • PSMT$23,465+135% total · +18.6% a year
  • ROST$22,648+126% total · +17.8% a year
  • TJX$21,559+116% total · +16.6% a year
  • COST$21,378+114% total · +16.4% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
  • AMZN$15,169+51.7% total · +8.7% a year
  • BJRI$13,719+37.2% total · +6.5% a year
Change the dates or add tickers to this chart in EasyCompare

COST at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

The company

Market value
$441B
Industry
Discount Stores
Price history from
October 1986

Returns

Past 1 year
+6.9%total return
Past 3 years
+87.2%+23.2% a year
Past 5 years
+123%+17.4% a year
Past 10 years
+685%+22.9% a year
Best calendar year
+77.7%1997
Worst calendar year
−36.8%2002
Losing years
5 of 29full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
22.9%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
0.82return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−70.9%Jan 1992 to Jan 1995
From its all-time high
−9.0%below the peak

COST against the whole market

Where COST ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does COST rank among all stocks?

This section ranks COST on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how COST stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasureCOSTRankStanding
1-year return+6.9%1,704 of 3,287bottom 49%
3-year return+87.2%1,043 of 3,017top 35%
5-year return+123%557 of 2,893top 19%
10-year return+685%196 of 2,202top 9%
Volatility, 5 years22.9%208 of 2,893top 7%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years0.82263 of 2,893top 9%
Worst decline, past 10 years−31.4%31 of 2,187top 1%

What has beaten COST on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). COST sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than COST with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to COST; faint dots are 8 more of the 14 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%28.0%30.0%32.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than COSTMLPX: +18.6% a year, volatility 19.7%EUFN: +18.5% a year, volatility 21.8%EWP: +19.2% a year, volatility 20.3%DBJP: +20.9% a year, volatility 19.2%CRAK: +19.8% a year, volatility 20.9%ATMP: +21.2% a year, volatility 21.5%AFL: +19.0% a year, volatility 20.8%SDCI: +20.6% a year, volatility 18.4%COST: +17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%WMT: +20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%ROST: +18.1% a year, volatility 29.5%PSMT: +18.6% a year, volatility 28.2%KOF: +22.3% a year, volatility 24.7%CCEP: +19.7% a year, volatility 23.2%MPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%CM: +19.2% a year, volatility 21.6%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%SPMO: +18.7% a year, volatility 20.8%ABBV: +26.1% a year, volatility 23.4%DTM: +24.5% a year, volatility 25.2%RY: +17.3% a year, volatility 18.2%COSTSPY (S&P 500)WMTROSTPSMTKOFCCEPMPLXDXJCMCAHSPMOABBVDTMRY15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than COSTMLPX: +18.6% a year, volatility 19.7%EUFN: +18.5% a year, volatility 21.8%EWP: +19.2% a year, volatility 20.3%DBJP: +20.9% a year, volatility 19.2%CRAK: +19.8% a year, volatility 20.9%ATMP: +21.2% a year, volatility 21.5%AFL: +19.0% a year, volatility 20.8%SDCI: +20.6% a year, volatility 18.4%COST: +17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%WMT: +20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%ROST: +18.1% a year, volatility 29.5%PSMT: +18.6% a year, volatility 28.2%KOF: +22.3% a year, volatility 24.7%CCEP: +19.7% a year, volatility 23.2%MPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%CM: +19.2% a year, volatility 21.6%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%SPMO: +18.7% a year, volatility 20.8%ABBV: +26.1% a year, volatility 23.4%DTM: +24.5% a year, volatility 25.2%RY: +17.3% a year, volatility 18.2%COSTSPY (S&P 500)WMTROSTPSMTKOFCCEPMPLXDXJCAHSPMOABBVRY
  • Popular alternatives
  • Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
  • The whole market
  • Others in the green region

Is there a better investment than COST?

Investments that beat COST over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat COST over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks COST's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than COST follows the table.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than COST's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× COST's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than COST's.

Screen the whole market against COST for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 14 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years10Y returntotalCorr. with COST?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation · this page
+17.4%22.9%0.82−31.4%+685%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+321%0.590.09%
Popular alternativesbest 3 shownThe investments people most often weigh against COST. 3 of 19 passed at least one test.
WMTWalmart Inc. · Discount Retail
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline+20.8%22.6%0.96−25.7%+508%0.63—
ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. · Specialty Retail
Higher return in most periods+18.1%29.5%0.71−51.4%+312%0.43—
PSMTPriceSmart, Inc. · Discount Retail
Higher return in most periods+18.6%28.2%0.75−53.2%+124%0.41—
Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 2 shownEverything else in Discount Retail and the categories next to it (Specialty Retail, Grocery Stores, E-Commerce, Food & Beverages), plus COST's specific themes. 2 of 58 passed at least one test.
KOFCoca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. · Food & Beverages
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+22.3%24.7%0.94−55.1%+119%0.20—
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC · Food & Beverages
Higher return in most periods+19.7%23.2%0.90−48.8%+292%0.26—
The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 134 of 3,556 passed at least one test.
MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+23.5%18.8%1.22−75.2%+350%0.38—
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+26.6%19.1%1.34−39.1%+428%0.280.48%
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce · Banks
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+19.2%21.6%0.93−47.3%+395%0.42—
CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
On the frontierHigher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+42.1%24.7%1.55−46.1%+349%0.22—
SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF · US Momentum Equity
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+18.7%20.8%0.93−30.9%+499%0.410.13%
ABBVAbbVie Inc. · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+26.1%23.4%1.11−45.1%+603%0.14—
DTMDT Midstream, Inc. · Oil & Gas Midstream
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline+24.5%25.2%1.00−23.6%—0.29—
RYRoyal Bank of Canada · Banks
On the frontierSimilar return, lower volatility+17.3%18.2%0.97−40.0%+352%0.30—
What these numbers mean for COST
Annual return
COST returned 17.4% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $22,300. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
COST's volatility over the past 5 years was 22.9%, 1.3 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, COST's return lands within 22.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
COST's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.82, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so COST earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
COST's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 31.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 31.4% fall takes a 45.8% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, COST's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.59 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against COST instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a COST holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 14 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than COST with less volatility

Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 12 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.

#InvestmentFound inAnnual returnVolatilitySharpeWorst decline10Y returnCorr. with COSTExpense
1
MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream
Whole market+23.5%18.8%1.22−75.2%+350%0.38—
2
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity
Whole market+26.6%19.1%1.34−39.1%+428%0.280.48%
3
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce · Banks
Whole market+19.2%21.6%0.93−47.3%+395%0.42—
4
SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF · US Momentum Equity
Whole market+18.7%20.8%0.93−30.9%+499%0.410.13%
5
MLPXGlobal X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF · Energy
Whole market+18.6%19.7%0.97−64.6%+186%0.390.45%
6
EUFNiShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF · Financial Sector Equity
Whole market+18.5%21.8%0.89−53.2%+233%0.270.49%
7
EWPiShares MSCI Spain ETF · Broad Market
Whole market+19.2%20.3%0.97−46.4%+196%0.190.50%
8
DBJPXtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF · International
Whole market+20.9%19.2%1.09−31.3%+348%0.360.45%
9
CRAKVanEck Oil Refiners ETF · Energy
Whole market+19.8%20.9%0.97−58.8%+336%0.180.61%
10
ATMPBarclays ETN+ Select MLP ETN · Broad Market
Whole market+21.2%21.5%1.01−70.3%+172%0.350.95%
11
AFLAflac Incorporated · Life Insurance
Whole market+19.0%20.8%0.95−54.9%+335%0.31—
12
SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Bonds
Whole market+20.6%18.4%1.12−45.7%—-0.020.80%

See everything that outperformed COST →

COST against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against COST, compared period by period and year by year.

How do COST's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at COST, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than COST with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%−15.0%−10.0%−5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityCOST: 17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%WMT: 20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%BJRI: 10.8% a year, volatility 46.3%AMZN: 9.0% a year, volatility 36.6%TJX: 19.9% a year, volatility 22.3%BURL: −1.3% a year, volatility 44.4%TGT: −6.5% a year, volatility 36.1%GO: −10.8% a year, volatility 49.4%DG: −7.4% a year, volatility 37.0%DLTR: 4.3% a year, volatility 40.1%BJ: 11.9% a year, volatility 32.5%FIVE: 3.6% a year, volatility 47.7%OLLI: 6.8% a year, volatility 44.4%KR: 12.3% a year, volatility 27.3%SYY: 3.5% a year, volatility 23.6%ACI: −6.7% a year, volatility 30.4%ROST: 18.1% a year, volatility 29.5%PSMT: 18.6% a year, volatility 28.2%PG: 5.1% a year, volatility 18.3%PEP: −0.5% a year, volatility 19.1%COSTSPY (S&P 500)WMTBJRIAMZNTJXBURLTGTGODLTRBJFIVEOLLIKRSYYACIROSTPSMTPGPEP10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityCOST: 17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%WMT: 20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%BJRI: 10.8% a year, volatility 46.3%AMZN: 9.0% a year, volatility 36.6%TJX: 19.9% a year, volatility 22.3%BURL: −1.3% a year, volatility 44.4%TGT: −6.5% a year, volatility 36.1%GO: −10.8% a year, volatility 49.4%DG: −7.4% a year, volatility 37.0%DLTR: 4.3% a year, volatility 40.1%BJ: 11.9% a year, volatility 32.5%FIVE: 3.6% a year, volatility 47.7%OLLI: 6.8% a year, volatility 44.4%KR: 12.3% a year, volatility 27.3%SYY: 3.5% a year, volatility 23.6%ACI: −6.7% a year, volatility 30.4%ROST: 18.1% a year, volatility 29.5%PSMT: 18.6% a year, volatility 28.2%PG: 5.1% a year, volatility 18.3%PEP: −0.5% a year, volatility 19.1%COSTSPY (S&P 500)WMTBJRIAMZNTJXBURLTGTGODGDLTRBJOLLISYYACIROSTPGPEP
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
WMT Walmart Inc.+20.8%22.6%
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc.+19.9%22.3%
PSMT PriceSmart, Inc.+18.6%28.2%
ROST Ross Stores, Inc.+18.1%29.5%
COST This pageCostco Wholesale Corporation+17.4%22.9%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
KR The Kroger Co.+12.3%27.3%
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.+11.9%32.5%
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc.+10.8%46.3%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.+9.0%36.6%
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.+6.8%44.4%
PG The Procter & Gamble Company+5.1%18.3%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc.+4.3%40.1%
FIVE Five Below, Inc.+3.6%47.7%
SYY Sysco Corporation+3.5%23.6%
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.−0.5%19.1%
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc.−1.3%44.4%
TGT Target Corporation−6.5%36.1%
ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc.−6.7%30.4%
DG Dollar General Corporation−7.4%37.0%
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.−10.8%49.4%
Open these 21 in EasyCompare

Has COST consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares COST with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than COST helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than COST over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y10YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (this page)—+10.7%+6.5%0.0%+16.9%+6.9%+87.2%+123%+685%22.9%0.82−31.4%—$441B—
ROST QualifiedRoss Stores, Inc.3/5 short2/3 long+2.6%+0.8%+4.3%+30.6%+51.9%+111%+129%+312%29.5%0.71−51.4%—$76B—
PSMT QualifiedPriceSmart, Inc.3/5 short2/3 long+1.6%−3.6%+9.3%+41.7%+43.2%+153%+135%+124%28.2%0.75−53.2%—$5.3B—
WMT Discount StoresWalmart Inc.1/5 short2/3 long+9.7%+5.3%−7.5%+5.2%+11.0%+130%+158%+508%22.6%0.96−25.7%—$938B—
BJRI RestaurantsBJ's Restaurants, Inc.3/5 short1/3 long−3.3%−14.2%+50.6%+43.8%+89.9%+146%+67.1%+76.2%46.3%0.45−91.2%—$1.3B—
AMZN Specialty RetailAmazon.com, Inc.2/5 short1/3 long+1.6%+5.1%+5.8%+16.0%+21.3%+110%+53.8%+548%36.6%0.42−56.1%—$2.8T—
TJX Apparel - RetailThe TJX Companies, Inc.1/5 short1/3 long+12.3%−5.3%−7.3%−3.8%+3.8%+71.6%+147%+361%22.3%0.93−42.5%—$162B—
BURL Apparel - RetailBurlington Stores, Inc.0/5 short1/3 long+2.8%−26.5%−25.6%−13.2%−3.1%+112%−6.2%+240%44.4%0.19−68.9%—$16B—
TGT Discount StoresTarget Corporation4/5 short0/3 long−2.4%+11.2%+20.3%+57.4%+75.1%+58.0%−28.5%+207%36.1%0.00−64.4%—$70B—
GO Grocery StoresGrocery Outlet Holding Corp.4/5 short0/3 long+15.9%+40.3%+66.7%+28.0%−17.4%−52.8%−43.5%—49.4%0.01−87.6%—$1.3B—
PG Household & Personal ProductsThe Procter & Gamble Company3/5 short0/3 long+9.1%+7.7%+12.0%+14.9%+8.0%+15.8%+28.3%+145%18.3%0.37−23.8%—$370B—
DG Discount StoresDollar General Corporation3/5 short0/3 long+10.6%+8.1%+7.2%0.0%+28.5%+24.2%−32.0%+127%37.0%-0.01−72.6%—$30B—
DLTR Discount StoresDollar Tree, Inc.3/5 short0/3 long+11.2%−1.1%+16.5%−2.1%+26.2%+13.1%+23.3%+64.7%40.1%0.31−64.8%—$23B—
BJ Discount StoresBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.3/5 short0/3 long+10.9%+9.0%+9.4%+11.3%+9.0%+47.7%+75.3%—32.5%0.51−38.8%—$13B—
FIVE Specialty RetailFive Below, Inc.2/5 short0/3 long−5.2%+9.6%−9.7%+15.7%+43.3%+27.2%+19.6%+493%47.7%0.32−76.4%—$12B—
OLLI Discount StoresOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.2/5 short0/3 long+16.3%+37.4%−1.1%−16.8%−23.3%+23.8%+38.9%+238%44.4%0.37−66.2%—$5.5B—
KR Grocery StoresThe Kroger Co.1/5 short0/3 long+5.5%+8.7%−6.1%+1.8%−6.9%+52.6%+78.5%+151%27.3%0.56−43.8%—$37B—
SYY Food DistributionSysco Corporation1/5 short0/3 long+6.4%+3.3%+10.2%+16.6%+6.7%+37.6%+18.7%+126%23.6%0.27−63.4%—$41B—
PEP Beverages - Non-AlcoholicPepsiCo, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long+3.4%0.0%−12.8%−2.9%−9.2%−6.7%−2.3%+72.6%19.1%0.07−30.3%—$183B—
ACI Grocery StoresAlbertsons Companies, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long+11.1%−8.6%−17.0%−19.5%−28.6%−33.6%−29.2%—30.4%-0.07−54.7%—$6.5B—
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How did COST do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where COST ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with COST and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of COST; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places COST among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of COST20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997
COST This pageCostco Wholesale Corporation—−5.4%+39.6%+49.0%−19.1%+51.8%+32.7%+45.7%+10.6%+22.4%+0.3%+18.9%+20.5%+21.9%+28.4%+16.7%+23.7%+14.3%−24.0%+33.2%+7.9%+3.2%+31.1%+32.5%−36.8%+11.1%−12.5%+26.4%+61.8%+77.7%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 10 of 2916 of 205 of 203 of 2016 of 203 of 206 of 192 of 188 of 179 of 1714 of 173 of 167 of 1611 of 153 of 147 of 148 of 149 of 137 of 133 of 137 of 138 of 132 of 133 of 1313 of 136 of 138 of 136 of 136 of 131 of 11
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF9 of 29+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%−4.6%+21.7%+12.0%+1.2%+13.5%+32.3%+16.0%+1.9%+15.1%+26.4%−36.8%+5.1%+15.9%+4.8%+10.7%+28.2%−21.6%−11.7%−9.8%+20.4%+28.7%+33.5%
ROST Ross Stores, Inc.13 of 29+20.4%+10.4%+20.6%+2.9%−6.0%+5.8%+41.3%+4.8%+23.5%+23.0%+15.3%+27.0%+39.9%+14.9%+52.0%+49.7%+45.3%+17.8%−12.0%+2.4%+0.9%+9.4%+25.5%+32.9%+91.0%−5.7%−8.3%+9.7%+47.9%
PSMT PriceSmart, Inc.11 of 28+34.8%+25.0%+26.2%−15.8%−19.1%+29.6%+21.6%−30.8%+3.5%+1.5%−8.3%−20.4%+50.6%+12.0%+85.5%+90.2%+1.8%−29.9%+69.4%+114%+10.5%+20.9%−72.7%−34.6%+6.5%−16.1%+124%+2.2%—
WMT Walmart Inc.9 of 29+24.5%+74.0%+12.9%−0.5%+1.9%+23.4%+30.1%−3.4%+46.6%+16.1%−26.6%+11.8%+18.2%+17.1%+13.8%+3.1%−2.5%+20.0%+4.9%+0.2%−10.2%+0.6%+5.6%−11.8%+8.9%−22.7%+70.5%+107%+74.6%
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc.11 of 29+12.1%−2.4%+36.5%−23.6%−10.2%+1.8%−24.1%+40.0%−7.0%−9.6%−13.4%+61.7%−5.6%−27.4%+27.9%+88.1%+74.8%−33.8%−19.5%−11.6%+63.3%−6.2%+116%+32.9%+71.2%+161%−13.7%−10.3%−70.0%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.18 of 28+5.2%+44.4%+80.9%−49.6%+2.4%+76.3%+23.0%+28.4%+56.0%+10.9%+118%−22.2%+59.0%+45.0%−3.9%+33.7%+163%−44.7%+135%−16.5%+6.8%−16.0%+178%+74.6%−30.5%−79.6%+42.2%+968%—
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc.13 of 29+28.7%+30.6%+19.7%+6.7%+12.8%+12.3%+38.8%+18.9%+3.5%+7.4%+4.6%+8.8%+51.7%+33.0%+47.6%+22.9%+81.0%−27.4%+1.8%+24.0%−6.8%+15.0%+13.8%−1.6%+44.3%+37.1%−29.5%+70.3%+44.9%
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc.6 of 12+1.3%+46.6%−4.1%−30.4%+11.5%+14.7%+40.2%+32.2%+45.2%+97.5%−9.2%+47.7%—————————————————
TGT Target Corporation12 of 29−24.5%−2.3%−1.4%−34.2%+32.9%+40.5%+100%+4.7%−5.8%+2.7%−1.6%+23.8%+9.5%+18.2%−13.0%+26.3%+42.4%−30.0%−11.6%+4.7%+6.6%+36.1%+29.0%−26.5%+28.0%−11.5%+36.2%+62.2%+74.2%
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.1 of 6−35.3%−42.1%−7.6%+3.2%−28.0%+21.0%———————————————————————
PG The Procter & Gamble Company7 of 29−12.3%+17.3%−0.9%−5.1%+20.5%+14.2%+39.7%+3.6%+12.7%+9.3%−10.0%+15.4%+23.6%+5.2%+7.0%+9.3%+1.2%−13.8%+16.7%+13.4%+7.2%+12.4%+18.5%+11.4%+3.1%−27.1%+21.6%+16.0%+50.5%
DG Dollar General Corporation9 of 16+79.6%−43.1%−44.1%+5.6%+13.0%+35.9%+45.7%+17.6%+26.9%+4.3%+2.9%+17.2%+36.8%+7.1%+34.2%+36.7%—————————————
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc.12 of 29+64.1%−47.2%+0.4%+0.7%+30.1%+14.9%+4.1%−15.8%+39.0%−0.1%+9.7%+24.7%+39.1%−2.4%+48.2%+74.2%+15.8%+60.9%−13.9%+25.7%−16.8%−4.3%+22.3%−20.5%+26.1%−24.1%+10.8%+58.4%+62.2%
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.4 of 7+0.8%+34.0%+0.8%−1.2%+79.6%+63.9%+2.6%——————————————————————
FIVE Five Below, Inc.7 of 13+79.5%−50.8%+20.5%−14.5%+18.2%+36.9%+25.0%+54.3%+66.0%+24.5%−21.4%−5.5%+34.8%————————————————
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.7 of 10−0.1%+44.6%+62.0%−8.5%−37.4%+25.2%−1.8%+24.9%+87.2%+67.3%———————————————————
KR The Kroger Co.11 of 29+4.2%+36.9%+5.0%+0.4%+45.4%+11.9%+7.9%+2.1%−19.0%−16.4%+31.8%+64.8%+54.5%+9.6%+10.5%+10.7%−20.9%0.0%+17.0%+23.4%+7.6%−5.3%+20.0%−26.1%−22.8%+43.4%−37.6%+64.7%+58.1%
SYY Sysco Corporation8 of 29−1.0%+7.4%−1.7%−0.3%+8.3%−10.4%+39.6%+5.5%+12.5%+38.8%+5.8%+13.4%+18.9%+11.9%+3.5%+8.0%+26.7%−23.5%−13.2%+21.0%−17.3%+3.7%+26.8%+15.6%−11.7%+53.5%+45.6%+22.1%+41.8%
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.7 of 29−1.8%−7.6%−3.3%+6.8%+20.5%+11.7%+27.4%−4.8%+17.8%+7.8%+8.8%+17.3%+24.6%+6.4%+4.8%+10.7%+14.6%−26.0%+23.8%+7.9%+15.3%+13.8%+12.1%−12.2%−0.6%+42.6%−12.4%+14.3%+25.7%
ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc.2 of 5−10.0%−12.5%+13.4%−6.8%+75.2%————————————————————————
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Risk and diversification

How COST has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were COST's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents COST's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Green means COST fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringCOST fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
No named crash−70.9%—Jan 1992Jan 19953 yearsNov 19972.8 years
No named crash−62.4%—Mar 1987Oct 19877 monthsJul 19889 months
Dot-com bust−53.4%−37.0%May 2000Dec 20022.6 yearsJul 20063.6 years
2008 financial crisis−48.0%−45.7%Jul 2008Mar 20098 monthsDec 201021 months
No named crash−36.5%—Jul 1990Sep 19902 monthsDec 19903 months

How did COST do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far COST, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than COST.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
COST This pageCostco Wholesale Corporation—−3.1%−31.4%−13.7%−20.8%−6.5%−15.2%−13.5%−1.2%−48.0%−50.1%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF4 of 10−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
ROST Ross Stores, Inc.4 of 10−4.9%−37.5%−51.4%−26.0%−5.1%−20.5%−12.4%−2.6%−46.5%−45.8%
PSMT PriceSmart, Inc.1 of 10−2.6%−34.1%−29.7%−34.1%−4.4%−27.9%−22.1%−2.6%−66.5%−60.0%
WMT Walmart Inc.8 of 10−0.8%−25.7%−13.1%−18.3%−4.9%−22.3%−10.5%−1.5%−26.2%−31.8%
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc.2 of 10−8.8%−43.3%−85.0%−31.7%−4.1%−16.7%−18.7%−1.4%−66.9%−40.9%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.0 of 10−3.4%−39.6%−22.7%−33.2%−7.1%−30.6%−20.7%−2.9%−65.3%−91.8%
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc.4 of 10−4.7%−27.7%−42.5%−25.6%−5.3%−16.1%−9.7%−2.1%−49.9%−32.6%
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc.2 of 6−4.8%−61.5%−51.4%−15.6%−3.7%−26.8%————
TGT Target Corporation3 of 10−3.4%−43.9%−21.7%−30.3%−3.0%−15.8%−10.4%−1.3%−60.6%−42.6%
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.3 of 3−1.8%−28.7%−13.1%———————
PG The Procter & Gamble Company8 of 10−0.7%−23.8%−22.9%−9.6%−5.1%−10.9%−8.9%−0.7%−39.0%−27.1%
DG Dollar General Corporation5 of 8−0.7%−27.6%−18.4%−15.9%−4.4%−25.2%−8.4%−2.6%——
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc.4 of 10−1.5%−26.5%−30.2%−7.2%−6.7%−24.1%−11.3%−1.9%−49.1%−67.1%
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.1 of 4−3.3%−25.4%−20.3%−32.0%——————
FIVE Five Below, Inc.2 of 6−2.5%−44.6%−55.8%−31.1%−2.7%−28.9%————
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.2 of 6−6.2%−27.7%−40.0%−36.1%−3.9%−23.3%————
KR The Kroger Co.6 of 10−1.3%−29.6%−13.0%−14.9%−6.0%−14.3%−13.7%−2.2%−35.3%−58.3%
SYY Sysco Corporation6 of 10−2.3%−20.8%−59.5%−17.8%−6.8%−6.4%−17.9%−1.5%−43.1%−27.2%
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.8 of 10−0.8%−11.9%−28.3%−12.3%−7.2%−10.2%−8.3%−0.2%−40.4%−33.0%
ACI Albertsons Companies, Inc.1 of 2−2.4%−31.9%————————
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How closely does COST move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares COST with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than COST's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
COST This pageCostco Wholesale Corporation93%50%1.850.77
WMT Walmart Inc.74%36%2.080.53
KR The Kroger Co.49%36%1.340.40
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc.81%65%1.250.78
PG The Procter & Gamble Company46%41%1.130.41
FIVE Five Below, Inc.111%102%1.091.13
ROST Ross Stores, Inc.93%89%1.050.93
DG Dollar General Corporation46%46%1.000.37
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.134%139%0.961.31
TGT Target Corporation83%87%0.951.00
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.92%100%0.920.83
PSMT PriceSmart, Inc.68%79%0.860.80
BURL Burlington Stores, Inc.103%121%0.851.22
SYY Sysco Corporation76%100%0.761.02
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.48%65%0.750.48
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc.52%79%0.660.75
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc.99%158%0.631.77
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What diversifies COST?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with COST's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing COST with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which COST lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% COST and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe2025202220082002200080/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (this page)1.00+123%0.82−5.4%−19.1%−24.0%−36.8%−12.5%23.3%+16.4%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.39+119%1.48+27.1%+3.8%———19.5%+16.9%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.28+225%1.34+32.8%+6.0%−20.8%——19.5%+18.9%
FJAN Multi-AssetFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January0.48+69.0%1.05+12.7%−4.0%———19.7%+15.8%
EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund0.49+101%1.04+9.7%+10.4%———20.3%+16.6%
SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF0.39+323%0.97+49.2%−33.5%−44.7%−47.0%—22.3%+21.4%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares0.15+126%0.96+63.7%−0.8%+4.9%——19.5%+17.4%
SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF0.41+136%0.93+26.6%−10.4%———20.7%+17.9%
XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF0.14+177%0.93+7.9%+64.4%−39.0%−14.8%+24.4%20.0%+18.7%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe2025202220082002200080/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation (this page)1.00+123%0.82−5.4%−19.1%−24.0%−36.8%−12.5%23.3%+16.4%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.22+479%1.55+76.3%+54.1%−39.6%−8.3%+108%20.5%+21.3%
CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc.0.26+3,143%1.47+220%+1.3%−20.5%−65.1%−2.3%24.4%+34.2%
FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc.0.36+1,636%1.46+121%+17.0%−15.2%−9.4%−71.1%23.4%+30.0%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.34+413%1.44+44.5%+51.8%−40.4%−27.2%+61.2%20.9%+20.5%
MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation0.14+690%1.41+19.2%+86.6%———20.6%+23.5%
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Common questions

What was COST's worst drawdown?

COST's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 70.9%, from January 1992 to January 1995. It took about three years from the low to climb back to its old high.

What were COST's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, COST's best year was 1997, when it returned 77.7%. Its worst was 2002, with a return of -36.8%.

Is there a better investment than COST?

Among COST's popular alternatives, WMT earned more for the risk it took than COST over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 25.7%, against 31.4% for COST. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, KOF (food & beverages) earned more than COST over the past 5 years with similar volatility: 22.3% a year at 24.7% volatility, against 17.4% a year at 22.9%.

Is COST more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. COST's volatility over the past 5 years was 22.9%, 1.3 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, COST's return lands within 22.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is COST's Sharpe ratio?

COST's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.82, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so COST earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is COST with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, COST's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.59 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against COST instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a COST holding.

What are the best alternatives to COST?

Of the 19 popular alternatives we compared, two outperformed COST in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: ROST and PSMT.

Did COST outperform the S&P 500?

COST finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 20 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -5.4%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did COST do in stock market crashes?

COST fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in three of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in four. The clearest case was the 2022 bear market, when COST fell 31.4% and the S&P 500 fell 24.5%.

What diversifies COST?

These had a low correlation with COST over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.39), DXJ (correlation 0.28) and FJAN (correlation 0.48); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.22), CLS (correlation 0.26) and FIX (correlation 0.36). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

How we measure

More research

Popular alternatives to COST

Other stocks and ETFs