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Relative Intelligence · Oil & Gas

How Marathon Petroleum (MPC) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on MPC alone. It places MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) against 13 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where MPC stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: MPC's full trading record, from June 2011 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against MPC →Chart MPC vs. 13 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in MPC have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in MPC over the past 15 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of MPC over the same span and MPC's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Note: MPC began trading on June 23, 2011, so the chart cannot reach back to the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash. It covers the most recent 15 years of MPC's record, starting at the end of September 2011.

Choose a period

From the end of September 2011 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 34 of the 2,130 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of MPC; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$1,000$10,000$100,000$1M201120142017202020232026$1,000$10,000$100,000$1M2011201520192023
  • NVDA$8M+80,070% total · +56.2% a year
  • FIX$2M+22,558% total · +43.6% a year
  • TSLA$2M+21,667% total · +43.2% a year
  • AVGO$1M+14,846% total · +39.6% a year
  • TSM$545,694+5,357% total · +30.6% a year
  • MPC$445,808+4,358% total · +28.8% a year
  • VLO$399,578+3,896% total · +27.9% a year
  • CVI$155,462+1,455% total · +20.1% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$87,526+775% total · +15.6% a year
  • CLMT$47,442+374% total · +10.9% a year
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From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 55 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of MPC; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000$200,000202120222023202420252026$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000$200,000202120222023202420252026
  • FIX$236,701+2,267% total · +88.3% a year
  • MU$153,675+1,437% total · +72.7% a year
  • NVDA$110,811+1,008% total · +61.8% a year
  • LPG$96,257+863% total · +57.3% a year
  • AVGO$79,117+691% total · +51.2% a year
  • MPC$71,516+615% total · +48.2% a year
  • CLMT$66,220+562% total · +45.9% a year
  • VLO$64,131+541% total · +45.0% a year
  • CVI$43,250+333% total · +34.0% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
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MPC at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

Note: MPC began trading on June 23, 2011, so every figure here, including its worst decline, covers only the time since then. None of them reflect the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash.

The company

Market value
$133B
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Price history from
June 2011

Returns

Past 1 year
+159%total return
Past 3 years
+234%+49.5% a year
Past 5 years
+690%+51.2% a year
Past 10 years
+1,387%+31.0% a year
Best calendar year
+94.3%2012
Worst calendar year
−27.4%2020
Losing years
3 of 14full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
33.4%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
1.41return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−79.7%Oct 2018 to Mar 2020
From its all-time high
−2.0%below the peak

MPC against the whole market

Where MPC ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does MPC rank among all stocks?

This section ranks MPC on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how MPC stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasureMPCRankStanding
1-year return+159%64 of 3,287top 2%
3-year return+234%327 of 3,017top 11%
5-year return+690%43 of 2,893top 1%
10-year return+1,387%67 of 2,202top 3%
Volatility, 5 years33.4%1,025 of 2,893top 35%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years1.416 of 2,893top 1%
Worst decline, past 10 years−79.7%1,632 of 2,187bottom 26%

What has beaten MPC on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). MPC sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than MPC with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to MPC. 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than MPCMPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%FIX: +77.0% a year, volatility 46.7%PWR: +39.3% a year, volatility 37.2%LPG: +54.6% a year, volatility 43.6%MPCSPY (S&P 500)LLYFIXPWRLPG10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than MPCMPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%FIX: +77.0% a year, volatility 46.7%PWR: +39.3% a year, volatility 37.2%LPG: +54.6% a year, volatility 43.6%MPCSPY (S&P 500)LLYFIXPWRLPG
  • The whole market

Is there a better investment than MPC?

Investments that beat MPC over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat MPC over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks MPC's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than MPC's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× MPC's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than MPC's.

Screen the whole market against MPC for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 5 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years10Y returntotalCorr. with MPC?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation · this page
+51.2%33.4%1.41−79.7%+1,387%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+321%0.260.09%
The whole marketbest 4 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 4 of 3,547 passed at least one test.
LLYEli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
On the frontierSmaller losses in recent crashes+40.7%32.8%1.21−34.5%+1,807%-0.12—
FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. · Engineering & Construction
On the frontierSmaller losses in recent crashes+77.0%46.7%1.46−49.7%+5,305%0.14—
PWRQuanta Services, Inc. · Engineering & Construction
Smaller losses in recent crashes+39.3%37.2%1.08−45.5%+2,045%0.10—
LPGDorian LPG Ltd. · Oil & Gas Midstream
On the frontierSmaller losses in recent crashes+54.6%43.6%1.22−62.9%+1,821%0.30—
What these numbers mean for MPC
Annual return
MPC returned 51.2% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $79,000. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
MPC's volatility over the past 5 years was 33.4%, about twice the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MPC's return lands within 33.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
MPC's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.41, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MPC earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
MPC's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 79.7%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 79.7% fall takes a 392% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, MPC's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.26 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MPC instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MPC holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →

MPC against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against MPC, compared period by period and year by year.

How do MPC's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at MPC, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than MPC with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityMPC: 51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%VLO: 44.2% a year, volatility 36.9%CVI: 32.2% a year, volatility 52.3%CLMT: 39.4% a year, volatility 56.5%PBF: 42.9% a year, volatility 59.1%DINO: 31.8% a year, volatility 38.8%DK: 34.0% a year, volatility 52.7%PARR: 38.9% a year, volatility 50.6%DAR: −5.2% a year, volatility 40.3%DKL: 12.1% a year, volatility 31.5%PSX: 33.2% a year, volatility 32.9%MPLX: 23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%CVX: 19.5% a year, volatility 25.2%XOM: 27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%MPCSPY (S&P 500)VLOCVICLMTPBFDINODKPARRDARDKLPSXMPLXCVXXOM10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityMPC: 51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%VLO: 44.2% a year, volatility 36.9%CVI: 32.2% a year, volatility 52.3%CLMT: 39.4% a year, volatility 56.5%PBF: 42.9% a year, volatility 59.1%DINO: 31.8% a year, volatility 38.8%DK: 34.0% a year, volatility 52.7%PARR: 38.9% a year, volatility 50.6%DAR: −5.2% a year, volatility 40.3%DKL: 12.1% a year, volatility 31.5%PSX: 33.2% a year, volatility 32.9%MPLX: 23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%CVX: 19.5% a year, volatility 25.2%XOM: 27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%MPCSPY (S&P 500)VLOCVICLMTPBFDINODKPARRDARDKLPSXMPLXCVXXOM
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
MPC This pageMarathon Petroleum Corporation+51.2%33.4%
VLO Valero Energy Corporation+44.2%36.9%
PBF PBF Energy Inc.+42.9%59.1%
CLMT Calumet Inc.+39.4%56.5%
PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.+38.9%50.6%
DK Delek US Holdings, Inc.+34.0%52.7%
PSX Phillips 66+33.2%32.9%
CVI CVR Energy, Inc.+32.2%52.3%
DINO HF Sinclair Corporation+31.8%38.8%
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation+27.1%26.5%
MPLX MPLX Lp+23.5%18.8%
CVX Chevron Corporation+19.5%25.2%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP+12.1%31.5%
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.−5.2%40.3%
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Has MPC consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares MPC with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than MPC helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than MPC over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y10YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation (this page)—+18.1%+51.1%+123%+191%+159%+234%+690%+1,387%33.4%1.41−79.7%—$133B—
VLO Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingValero Energy Corporation1/5 short1/3 long+10.2%+38.9%+93.2%+166%+176%+259%+524%+1,061%36.9%1.18−71.9%—$125B—
CVI Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingCVR Energy, Inc.1/5 short0/3 long+16.4%+79.1%+106%+147%+78.5%+115%+304%+1,424%52.3%0.80−79.9%—$6.2B—
CLMT Chemicals - SpecialtyCalumet Inc.1/5 short0/3 long−3.6%+29.0%+74.8%+187%+198%+235%+427%+1,319%56.5%0.87−90.4%—$4.9B—
PBF Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingPBF Energy Inc.1/5 short0/3 long+14.5%+30.5%+122%+196%+189%+89.0%+495%+427%59.1%0.90−91.5%—$9.8B—
DINO Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingHF Sinclair Corporation0/5 short0/3 long+14.7%+39.5%+119%+174%+146%+152%+298%+649%38.8%0.91−77.3%—$22B—
DK Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingDelek US Holdings, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long+4.4%+20.5%+106%+165%+132%+226%+332%+524%52.7%0.82−84.3%—$4.8B—
DKL Oil & Gas MidstreamDelek Logistics Partners, LP0/5 short0/3 long+2.6%+5.5%+18.9%+29.4%+41.3%+80.0%+77.2%+511%31.5%0.52−82.7%—$3.3B—
PARR Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long+3.8%+9.7%+43.9%+138%+138%+161%+417%+504%50.6%0.91−76.4%—$4.3B—
PSX Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingPhillips 660/5 short0/3 long+11.2%+40.1%+89.2%+128%+130%+183%+319%+430%32.9%1.04−64.2%—$117B—
MPLX Oil & Gas MidstreamMPLX Lp0/5 short0/3 long−1.2%+4.1%+8.8%+14.7%+27.2%+105%+187%+350%18.8%1.22−75.2%—$59B—
DAR Packaged FoodsDarling Ingredients Inc.0/5 short0/3 long−6.4%−6.7%+0.2%+57.3%+86.2%+42.0%−23.4%+342%40.3%0.07−68.3%—$9.3B—
CVX Oil & Gas IntegratedChevron Corporation0/5 short0/3 long+10.8%+20.0%+25.4%+48.8%+51.9%+53.4%+144%+238%25.2%0.84−55.8%—$446B—
XOM Oil & Gas IntegratedExxonmobil Holdings Corporation0/5 short0/3 long+12.4%+20.7%+22.0%+47.9%+62.4%+76.7%+232%+214%26.5%1.04−61.0%—$731B—
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How did MPC do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2012, along with where MPC ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with MPC and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Note: MPC began trading on June 23, 2011, so the table starts with 2012, its first full calendar year, and cannot show how it fared during the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of MPC; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places MPC among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of MPC20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
MPC This pageMarathon Petroleum Corporation—+19.2%−4.0%+30.4%+86.6%+61.0%−27.4%+6.0%−8.2%+34.8%+0.7%+17.4%+0.4%+48.6%+94.3%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 6 of 147 of 147 of 143 of 144 of 144 of 146 of 1411 of 147 of 147 of 146 of 144 of 144 of 143 of 144 of 9
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF6 of 14+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%−4.6%+21.7%+12.0%+1.2%+13.5%+32.3%+16.0%
VLO Valero Energy Corporation6 of 14+37.0%−2.9%+5.9%+75.0%+40.3%−35.7%+30.3%−15.7%+40.0%+0.7%+46.8%+0.3%+65.0%+66.3%
CVI CVR Energy, Inc.8 of 14+35.8%−34.9%+11.6%+115%+93.5%−60.9%+27.6%+1.1%+63.5%−25.1%+8.0%+1.3%+20.1%+161%
CLMT Calumet Inc.5 of 14−9.8%+23.2%+5.9%+27.9%+322%−14.2%+65.2%−71.3%+92.5%−79.1%−1.6%−5.5%−7.2%+64.6%
PBF PBF Energy Inc.4 of 13+6.7%−38.0%+10.0%+216%+82.7%−77.1%+0.1%−4.9%+33.6%−20.5%+43.7%−11.5%+12.7%—
DINO HF Sinclair Corporation4 of 14+38.2%−34.4%+11.0%+62.0%+28.0%−46.5%+1.9%+2.0%+63.2%−14.1%+9.6%−19.9%+14.0%+117%
DK Delek US Holdings, Inc.6 of 14+68.7%−25.0%−0.8%+84.0%−6.7%−49.5%+6.6%−4.9%+48.8%+1.6%−7.8%−18.2%+40.5%+127%
DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP5 of 13+17.2%+8.8%+4.3%+14.4%+45.9%+14.3%+21.6%+2.2%+20.8%−12.3%+6.3%+17.7%+44.3%—
PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.5 of 13+114%−54.9%+56.4%+41.0%+17.9%−39.9%+63.9%−26.5%+32.6%−38.2%+44.9%−27.1%+85.8%—
PSX Phillips 663 of 13+17.5%−11.6%+33.1%+49.6%+8.4%−33.9%+34.0%−12.3%+20.9%+9.0%+17.1%−4.7%+48.3%—
MPLX MPLX Lp4 of 13+20.6%+41.7%+22.5%+21.1%+54.0%−1.8%−8.2%−8.4%+8.9%−6.3%−44.8%+69.0%+46.9%—
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.5 of 14+6.9%−32.4%−20.4%−9.7%+20.1%+105%+45.9%+6.1%+40.4%+22.7%−42.1%−13.0%+30.2%+20.7%
CVX Chevron Corporation4 of 14+10.1%+1.3%−13.6%+58.5%+46.2%−25.9%+15.3%−9.7%+10.6%+36.7%−16.2%−7.0%+19.3%+5.1%
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation3 of 14+16.0%+11.3%−6.3%+87.4%+57.6%−36.2%+7.2%−15.1%−3.8%+19.9%−12.8%−6.0%+20.1%+4.7%
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Risk and diversification

How MPC has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were MPC's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents MPC's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 2011, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Note: MPC began trading on June 23, 2011, so this list cannot include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash. The crash tests on this page show how older funds and the S&P 500 fared through those years.

Green means MPC fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringMPC fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
Late-2018 sell-off−79.7%−21.2%Oct 2018Mar 202017 monthsFeb 202223 months
2015 China and oil sell-off−48.2%−11.5%Dec 2015Feb 20162 monthsAug 201718 months
No named crash−44.8%−3.0%Apr 2024Apr 202512 monthsMar 202611 months
2011 euro debt crisis−39.5%−11.7%Aug 2011Sep 20111 monthFeb 20125 months
No named crash−31.2%+7.4%Mar 2013Oct 20137 monthsDec 20132 months

How did MPC do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far MPC, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Note: MPC began trading on June 23, 2011, so its row reads "Not yet trading" for the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash. The older alternatives and the S&P 500 show how those crashes played out.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than MPC.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
MPC This pageMarathon Petroleum Corporation—−3.7%−30.2%−72.4%−36.7%−6.9%−48.2%−39.5%Not yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet trading
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF5 of 7−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
VLO Valero Energy Corporation3 of 7−3.5%−31.9%−61.3%−42.0%−6.9%−24.2%−35.6%−4.3%−80.7%−54.1%
CVI CVR Energy, Inc.5 of 7−10.2%−34.8%−55.0%−27.7%−4.8%−45.9%−31.9%−2.5%——
CLMT Calumet Inc.2 of 7−7.0%−48.5%−77.7%−69.6%−4.3%−52.2%−30.9%0.0%−84.4%—
PBF PBF Energy Inc.1 of 6−9.2%−39.6%−78.8%−44.0%−6.5%−34.0%————
DINO HF Sinclair Corporation6 of 7−7.2%−26.0%−56.6%−34.1%−4.5%−43.6%−32.6%−2.5%−83.0%−40.3%
DK Delek US Holdings, Inc.4 of 7−8.9%−35.8%−68.1%−33.6%−6.2%−63.6%−37.0%−2.0%−84.7%—
DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP5 of 60.0%−24.6%−81.4%−18.3%−2.4%−39.9%————
PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.4 of 6−7.5%−33.1%−70.3%−32.7%−0.8%−22.7%————
PSX Phillips 664 of 6−5.6%−32.0%−53.3%−33.2%−4.7%−21.1%————
MPLX MPLX Lp5 of 6−1.2%−18.4%−64.6%−17.9%−4.5%−66.8%————
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.5 of 7−7.6%−34.8%−51.0%−18.8%−5.6%−43.0%−36.4%−4.9%−83.0%−85.7%
CVX Chevron Corporation7 of 7−2.6%−24.9%−51.0%−19.6%−5.3%−18.5%−17.2%−0.1%−43.8%−29.5%
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation6 of 7−3.1%−20.5%−47.9%−23.6%−10.0%−15.0%−19.6%−0.3%−33.7%−33.6%
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How closely does MPC move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares MPC with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than MPC's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
MPC This pageMarathon Petroleum Corporation138%95%1.451.29
CLMT Calumet Inc.127%81%1.561.67
VLO Valero Energy Corporation142%114%1.241.31
MPLX MPLX Lp87%76%1.141.16
CVI CVR Energy, Inc.169%150%1.121.37
DINO HF Sinclair Corporation135%140%0.971.21
DK Delek US Holdings, Inc.130%136%0.961.31
PSX Phillips 66116%122%0.951.16
PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.142%150%0.941.64
XOM Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation78%83%0.940.76
DAR Darling Ingredients Inc.118%127%0.921.05
CVX Chevron Corporation86%94%0.910.89
DKL Delek Logistics Partners, LP131%146%0.901.67
PBF PBF Energy Inc.137%164%0.831.44
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What diversifies MPC?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with MPC's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing MPC with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which MPC lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% MPC and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20242020201880/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation (this page)1.00+690%1.41−4.0%−27.4%−8.2%32.4%+48.2%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.41+119%1.48+15.9%−9.0%−5.2%26.7%+42.3%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.23+225%1.34+29.8%+3.9%−19.8%26.6%+44.8%
EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund0.48+101%1.04+33.4%−13.4%−8.7%27.4%+41.9%
SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF0.07+323%0.97+39.1%+55.5%−9.1%27.3%+48.2%
DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF0.30+85.0%0.96+13.4%+2.1%−9.5%26.7%+41.6%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares-0.01+126%0.96+26.7%+24.8%−1.9%26.1%+43.2%
SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF0.16+136%0.93+45.8%+28.2%−0.9%26.9%+43.8%
DFIV InternationalDimensional - International Value ETF0.40+99.4%0.93+7.2%——27.3%+42.0%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20242020201880/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation (this page)1.00+690%1.41−4.0%−27.4%−8.2%32.4%+48.2%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.18+479%1.55+19.0%+10.1%−24.5%27.4%+47.6%
CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc.0.16+3,143%1.47+215%−2.4%−16.3%30.1%+63.2%
FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc.0.14+1,636%1.46+107%+6.7%+0.8%28.6%+58.4%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.30+413%1.44+23.7%+27.1%−28.4%27.8%+46.7%
HWM Aerospace & DefenseHowmet Aerospace Inc.0.20+594%1.36+103%−7.2%−37.5%28.1%+50.3%
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Common questions

What was MPC's worst drawdown?

MPC's deepest decline since it began trading in 2011 was 79.7%, from October 2018 to March 2020. It took 23 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because MPC launched in June 2011, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash.

What were MPC's best and worst years?

Over 14 full calendar years, MPC's best year was 2012, when it returned 94.3%. Its worst was 2020, with a return of -27.4%.

Is there a better investment than MPC?

Nothing in the whole market did better on both counts: none of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MPC with less volatility over the past 5 years.

Is MPC more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. MPC's volatility over the past 5 years was 33.4%, about twice the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MPC's return lands within 33.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is MPC's Sharpe ratio?

MPC's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.41, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MPC earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is MPC with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, MPC's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.26 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MPC instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MPC holding.

What are the best alternatives to MPC?

None of the 13 popular alternatives we compared outperformed MPC in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about MPC's strength than about its alternatives.

Did MPC outperform the S&P 500?

MPC finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in eight of 14 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +19.2%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did MPC do in stock market crashes?

MPC fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in none of the seven major crashes it has traded through, and further in five. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MPC fell 72.4% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

What diversifies MPC?

These had a low correlation with MPC over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.41), DXJ (correlation 0.23) and EMLP (correlation 0.48); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.18), CLS (correlation 0.16) and FIX (correlation 0.14). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

How we measure

More research

Popular alternatives to MPC

Other stocks and ETFs