Relative Intelligence · Chemicals
How EIDP (CTA-PA) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on CTA-PA alone. It places CTA-PA (EIDP, Inc.) against 18 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where CTA-PA stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: CTA-PA's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowCTA-PA has gone against the market, falling 13.1% over the past 6 months while the S&P 500 rose 9.1%. The slide is CTA-PA's own: it is 36.1% below its high, against 1.3% for the S&P 500. At a glance ↓
- Stock or market?The weakness is CTA-PA's own: it fell 11.5% over the past 3 months while the materials sector ETF XLB (State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF) rose 2.9%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Its chemical peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: NTR (Nutrien) rose 4.4%, while CTVA (Corteva) fell 85.1%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsOver the past year, CTA-PA fell 10.0% while the S&P 500 rose 15.8%. The same gap shows up over 3 years (0.2% against 89.3%). CTA-PA led its chemical peers in 2023, then fell behind ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland) and NTR (Nutrien) in 2025. By year ↓
- Long termCTA-PA turned $10,000 into $8,050 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. CTA-PA's 10-year loss of 19.5% puts it behind 86% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashCTA-PA fell less than the S&P 500 in six of seven sell-offs, but the 2022 bear market broke the pattern: it fell 27.4%, more than the S&P 500's 24.5%. Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationAgainst the S&P 500, CTA-PA has a correlation of 0.15 over 5 years, less closely than 91% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is a real diversifier. CTA-PA's link to the S&P 500 has loosened: a correlation of 0.15 over the past 5 years, down from 0.49 in the 5 years before. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Popular alternatives
- PFF (iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF), PFFD (Global X - U.S. Preferred ETF) and MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility over the past 5 years. PFF returned a loss of 0.2% a year at 10.5% volatility, against a loss of 8.1% a year at 20.3%.
- Nearby categories and themes
- LIN (Linde, chemicals) earned more for the risk it took than CTA-PA over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 32.6%, against 40.3% for CTA-PA.
- Whole market
- 786 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them VTI (Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF), VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) and BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway).
How much would $10,000 in CTA-PA have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in CTA-PA over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of CTA-PA over the same span and CTA-PA's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in CTA-PA at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $33,749 by September 2026, less than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Seven of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of CTA-PA, and DE finished highest, at $436,954.
Choose a period
From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 841 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CTA-PA; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- DE$436,954+4,270% total · +13.9% a year
- ANDE$354,030+3,440% total · +13.1% a year
- FMC$133,687+1,237% total · +9.4% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
- SMG$80,056+701% total · +7.4% a year
- ADM$78,052+681% total · +7.3% a year
- DD$46,604+366% total · +5.5% a year
- CTA-PB$34,331+243% total · +4.3% a year
- CTA-PA$33,749+237% total · +4.3% a year
- MOS$9,028−9.7% total · −0.4% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 3,038 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CTA-PA; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- UAN$39,321+293% total · +31.5% a year
- CF$22,921+129% total · +18.0% a year
- DE$21,391+114% total · +16.4% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- DD$16,760+67.6% total · +10.9% a year
- ADM$15,236+52.4% total · +8.8% a year
- PFF$10,208+2.1% total · +0.4% a year
- MOO$10,078+0.8% total · +0.2% a year
- PFFD$9,308−6.9% total · −1.4% a year
- CTA-PA$6,932−30.7% total · −7.1% a year
CTA-PA at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- CTA-PA is still 36.1% below its all-time high.
- CTA-PA's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 40.3%, from July 2021 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over 29 full calendar years, CTA-PA's best was 1997, when it returned 22.8%, and its worst was 2022, when it lost 30.9%. It lost money in eight of those years.
The company
- Market value
- $45B
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Price history from
- October 1986
Returns
- Past 1 year
- −10.0%total return
- Past 3 years
- −0.2%−0.1% a year
- Past 5 years
- −34.4%−8.1% a year
- Past 10 years
- −19.5%−2.1% a year
- Best calendar year
- +22.8%1997
- Worst calendar year
- −30.9%2022
- Losing years
- 8 of 29full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 20.3%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- -0.32return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −40.3%Jul 2021 to Oct 2023
- From its all-time high
- −36.1%below the peak
CTA-PA against the whole market
Where CTA-PA ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does CTA-PA rank among all stocks?
This section ranks CTA-PA on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how CTA-PA stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- CTA-PA is among the steadier stocks: its price swings rank in the top 3% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top is the calmest.
- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), CTA-PA ranks in the bottom 4% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | CTA-PA | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | −10.0% | 2,346 of 3,287 | bottom 30% |
| 3-year return | −0.2% | 2,334 of 3,017 | bottom 24% |
| 5-year return | −34.4% | 2,219 of 2,893 | bottom 24% |
| 10-year return | −19.5% | 1,904 of 2,202 | bottom 15% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 20.3% | 101 of 2,893 | top 3% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | -0.32 | 2,786 of 2,893 | bottom 5% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −40.3% | 159 of 2,187 | top 7% |
What has beaten CTA-PA on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). CTA-PA sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than CTA-PA with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 72 stocks and 714 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than CTA-PA over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 22% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half CTA-PA's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 17.0% a year at 11.1% volatility, 46% less than CTA-PA's 20.3%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against -0.32 for CTA-PA. DXJ earned the most, 26.6% a year, while still swinging less than CTA-PA (19.1% against 20.3%).
- Among CTA-PA's popular alternatives, MOO, PFF and PFFD are in the region. MOO earned a loss of 0.8% a year against a loss of 8.1% a year for CTA-PA, at 17.2% volatility, 15% less than CTA-PA's 20.3%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to CTA-PA; faint dots are 93 more of the 786 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
- 1 with more than 1.6× CTA-PA's volatility is in the table only
Is there a better investment than CTA-PA?
Investments that beat CTA-PA over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among CTA-PA's popular alternatives, PFF, PFFD and MOO earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility over the past 5 years. PFF returned a loss of 0.2% a year at 10.5% volatility, against a loss of 8.1% a year at 20.3%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, LIN (chemicals) earned more for the risk it took than CTA-PA over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 32.6%, against 40.3% for CTA-PA.
- Across the whole market, 786 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them VTI, VOO and BRK-B.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat CTA-PA over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks CTA-PA's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than CTA-PA follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than CTA-PA's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× CTA-PA's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than CTA-PA's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with CTA-PA?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| CTA-PAEIDP, Inc. · this page | −8.1% | 20.3% | -0.32 | −40.3% | −19.5% | 1.00 | — | ||
 SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500 | +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | 0.15 | 0.09% | ||
| Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against CTA-PA. 12 of 18 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
PFFiShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF · Preferred Securities | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | −0.2% | 10.5% | 0.04 | −34.1% | +29.6% | 0.39 | 0.45% | |
PFFDGlobal X - U.S. Preferred ETF · Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | −2.0% | 11.1% | -0.12 | −30.9% | — | 0.45 | 0.23% | |
MOOVanEck Agribusiness ETF · Broad Market | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | −0.8% | 17.2% | 0.04 | −39.5% | +98.8% | 0.11 | 0.56% | |
 DEDeere & Company · Industrial Machinery | Higher return in most periods | +14.4% | 29.9% | 0.60 | −37.9% | +755% | -0.05 | — | |
CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. · Chemicals | Higher return in most periods | +16.7% | 38.1% | 0.60 | −60.7% | +516% | -0.07 | — | |
 ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company · Agricultural Products | Higher return in most periods | +7.4% | 28.7% | 0.40 | −54.1% | +156% | -0.10 | — | |
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Chemicals and the categories next to it (Specialty Chemicals, Industrial Machinery, Agricultural Products, Integrated Oil & Gas), plus CTA-PA's specific themes. 31 of 70 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 LINLinde plc · Chemicals | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +11.5% | 20.9% | 0.63 | −32.6% | +394% | 0.06 | — | |
 APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. · Chemicals | Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +3.2% | 26.4% | 0.25 | −31.8% | +188% | 0.15 | — | |
GGGGraco Inc. · Industrial Machinery | Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +3.5% | 22.9% | 0.26 | −30.6% | +263% | 0.10 | — | |
 ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. · Industrial Machinery | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +6.7% | 21.4% | 0.41 | −37.9% | +208% | 0.13 | — | |
FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. · Industrial Machinery | Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +4.1% | 27.1% | 0.28 | −32.0% | +193% | 0.24 | — | |
 XOMExxonmobil Holdings Corporation · Integrated Oil & Gas | Higher return in most periods | +27.1% | 26.5% | 1.04 | −61.0% | +214% | -0.04 | — | |
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 1,565 of 3,546 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bonds | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.05 | −0.2% | +25.8% | 0.22 | 0.14% | |
 BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | −0.4% | 6.1% | -0.03 | −18.6% | +13.2% | 0.41 | 0.03% | |
 VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF · Treasury Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +32.7% | 0.11 | 0.03% | |
 BSVVanguard Short-Term Bond ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +1.7% | 2.8% | 0.63 | −8.5% | +20.5% | 0.36 | 0.03% | |
FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | -0.07 | 0.15% | |
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.14 | — | |
 NVSNovartis AG · Pharmaceuticals | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.13 | — | |
 TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · Treasury Bonds | Similar return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | −7.7% | 15.7% | -0.44 | −48.4% | −20.1% | 0.44 | 0.15% | |
What these numbers mean for CTA-PA
- Annual return
- CTA-PA lost 8.1% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $6,560. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- CTA-PA's volatility over the past 5 years was 20.3%, 1.2 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CTA-PA's return lands within 20.3% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- CTA-PA's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.32, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CTA-PA earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- CTA-PA's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 40.3%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 40.3% fall takes a 67.4% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, CTA-PA's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.15 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CTA-PA instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CTA-PA holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 786 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with CTA-PA | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bonds | Whole market | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.05 | −0.2% | +25.8% | 0.22 | 0.14% |
| 2 | BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | −0.4% | 6.1% | -0.03 | −18.6% | +13.2% | 0.41 | 0.03% |
| 3 | VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF · Treasury Bonds | Whole market | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +32.7% | 0.11 | 0.03% |
| 4 | BSVVanguard Short-Term Bond ETF · Short-Term Bonds | Whole market | +1.7% | 2.8% | 0.63 | −8.5% | +20.5% | 0.36 | 0.03% |
| 5 | FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | -0.07 | 0.15% |
| 6 |  BNDXVanguard Total International Bond ETF · International Bonds | Whole market | +0.2% | 4.9% | 0.06 | −16.2% | +15.0% | 0.25 | 0.07% |
| 7 | SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF · Treasury Bonds | Whole market | +1.8% | 2.0% | 0.89 | −5.7% | +17.7% | 0.37 | 0.15% |
| 8 | SPSBState Street SPDR Portfolio Short Term Corporate Bond ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | +2.8% | 2.0% | 1.38 | −11.8% | +29.2% | 0.33 | 0.04% |
| 9 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.14 | — |
| 10 | JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds | Whole market | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.00 | 0.20% |
| 11 |  MUBiShares National Muni Bond ETF · Municipal Bonds | Whole market | +0.3% | 4.2% | 0.09 | −13.7% | +17.8% | 0.26 | 0.05% |
| 12 |  VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF · US Total Market | Whole market | +11.5% | 17.5% | 0.71 | −35.0% | +302% | 0.16 | 0.03% |
| 13 |  VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +12.8% | 16.9% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +324% | 0.15 | 0.03% |
| 14 | LMBSFirst Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF · Mortgage-Backed Securities | Whole market | +3.0% | 2.6% | 1.14 | −6.5% | +25.6% | 0.44 | 0.66% |
| 15 |  BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. · Insurance | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.05 | — |
| 16 | RAVINorthern Trust Ultra-Short Fixed Income ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.8% | 1.4% | 2.61 | −3.7% | +30.8% | 0.26 | 0.26% |
| 17 | MEARiShares Short Maturity Municipal Bond Active ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +2.4% | 1.0% | 2.37 | −2.7% | +19.3% | 0.35 | 0.26% |
| 18 | SCHPSchwab US TIPS ETF · Treasury Bonds | Whole market | +0.1% | 6.1% | 0.05 | −14.3% | +25.0% | 0.22 | 0.03% |
| 19 |  JNJJohnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals | Whole market | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.18 | — |
| 20 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.09 | 0.40% |
| 21 | BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · Crypto | Whole market | +6.3% | 3.3% | 1.85 | −4.9% | — | 0.27 | 0.69% |
| 22 | LDURPIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active Exchange-Traded Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +2.4% | 2.1% | 1.13 | −8.7% | +26.7% | 0.32 | 0.54% |
| 23 | SHMState Street SPDR Nuveen ICE Short Term Municipal Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +0.8% | 2.2% | 0.38 | −11.6% | +11.8% | 0.32 | 0.20% |
| 24 | VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | −13.1% | +40.5% | 0.15 | 0.30% |
| 25 |  GLDSPDR Gold Shares · Gold | Whole market | +17.7% | 18.9% | 0.96 | −26.4% | +213% | 0.09 | 0.40% |
| 26 |  PGThe Procter & Gamble Company · Household & Personal Products | Whole market | +5.1% | 18.3% | 0.37 | −23.8% | +145% | -0.07 | — |
| 27 |  IEFAiShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF · Developed International Equity | Whole market | +8.3% | 16.6% | 0.56 | −34.8% | +140% | 0.21 | 0.07% |
| 28 |  VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.78 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.16 | 0.04% |
| 29 | FLRTPacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF · Financials | Whole market | +6.0% | 2.3% | 2.55 | −21.0% | +58.0% | 0.03 | 0.60% |
| 30 |  SCHDSchwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.3% | 0.72 | −33.4% | +252% | 0.18 | 0.06% |
| 31 |  VTVanguard Total World Stock ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +10.3% | 16.2% | 0.69 | −34.2% | +223% | 0.19 | 0.06% |
| 32 |  EP-PCEl Paso Energy Capital Trust I PFD CV TR SECS · Preferred Stocks | Whole market | +5.2% | 8.9% | 0.61 | −25.4% | +37.8% | 0.09 | — |
| 33 |  RSGRepublic Services, Inc. · Environmental Services | Whole market | +13.9% | 18.5% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +446% | 0.06 | — |
| 34 | PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.5% | 8.6% | 1.20 | −18.2% | — | 0.20 | 0.79% |
| 35 |  WMWaste Management, Inc. · Environmental Services | Whole market | +9.3% | 19.2% | 0.56 | −30.1% | +344% | -0.03 | — |
| 36 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +11.1% | 10.5% | 1.05 | −13.6% | — | 0.15 | 0.85% |
| 37 |  PEPPepsiCo, Inc. · Food & Beverages | Whole market | −0.5% | 19.1% | 0.07 | −30.3% | +72.6% | 0.12 | — |
| 38 |  DYNFiShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF · US Multifactor Equity | Whole market | +14.7% | 17.5% | 0.87 | −34.7% | — | 0.17 | 0.26% |
| 39 |  CLColgate-Palmolive Company · Household & Personal Products | Whole market | +7.2% | 19.2% | 0.46 | −29.0% | +68.8% | 0.15 | — |
| 40 |  JEPIJPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +7.5% | 11.0% | 0.71 | −13.7% | — | 0.17 | 0.35% |
| 41 |  EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +12.0% | 18.8% | 0.70 | −30.9% | +114% | 0.13 | — |
| 42 |  XLVState Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF · Health Care Equity | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.3% | 0.60 | −28.4% | +202% | 0.23 | 0.08% |
| 43 | ATOAtmos Energy Corporation · Gas Utilities | Whole market | +14.9% | 18.4% | 0.85 | −32.9% | +194% | 0.13 | — |
| 44 | DFIVDimensional - International Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +14.8% | 16.4% | 0.93 | −25.4% | — | 0.16 | 0.27% |
| 45 | AVLVAvantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +14.0% | 16.9% | 0.86 | −19.5% | — | 0.09 | 0.15% |
| 46 | WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +7.2% | 19.0% | 0.46 | −32.3% | +159% | 0.17 | — |
| 47 | FTSFortis Inc. · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +8.4% | 16.4% | 0.58 | −34.3% | +154% | 0.19 | — |
| 48 | USMViShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · US Low-Volatility Equity | Whole market | +7.6% | 12.3% | 0.66 | −33.1% | +176% | 0.23 | 0.15% |
| 49 | SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +12.0% | 16.7% | 0.76 | −31.6% | +300% | 0.11 | 0.20% |
| 50 | USHYiShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · High Yield Bonds | Whole market | +3.6% | 7.4% | 0.52 | −22.4% | — | 0.13 | 0.08% |
| 51 | EWJiShares MSCI Japan ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +9.2% | 18.8% | 0.57 | −33.1% | +132% | 0.17 | 0.49% |
| 52 | VNLAJanus Henderson Short Duration Income ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.0% | 1.1% | 3.77 | −4.5% | — | 0.27 | 0.25% |
| 53 | FLTRVanEck IG Floating Rate ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +4.8% | 2.1% | 2.20 | −17.8% | +41.8% | 0.07 | 0.14% |
| 54 | BUFRFT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF · Buffered Equity | Whole market | +9.9% | 10.5% | 0.96 | −13.7% | — | 0.16 | 0.10% |
| 55 |  RYRoyal Bank of Canada · Banks | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.31 | — |
| 56 | DBEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.1% | 13.8% | 0.96 | −32.5% | +206% | 0.12 | 0.35% |
| 57 | BKLNInvesco Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +5.4% | 4.5% | 1.19 | −24.1% | +50.7% | 0.00 | 0.67% |
| 58 |  ELCEntergy Louisiana, LLC COLLATERAL TR MT · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | −1.1% | 12.1% | -0.03 | −21.1% | +21.9% | 0.43 | — |
| 59 | USTBVictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.6% | 2.0% | 1.73 | −5.3% | — | 0.36 | 0.34% |
| 60 | IOOiShares Global 100 ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +15.7% | 17.2% | 0.94 | −31.4% | +361% | 0.12 | 0.40% |
| 61 | XLGInvesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +13.8% | 18.9% | 0.78 | −30.5% | +379% | 0.13 | 0.20% |
| 62 | CMSCMS Energy Corporation · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +5.6% | 19.0% | 0.38 | −29.6% | +123% | 0.16 | — |
| 63 | JQUAJPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 15.7% | 0.89 | −32.9% | — | 0.17 | 0.12% |
| 64 | DIVOAmplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +11.1% | 11.9% | 0.95 | −30.0% | — | 0.13 | 0.56% |
| 65 | SRLNState Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +4.7% | 3.9% | 1.18 | −22.3% | +54.2% | 0.03 | 0.70% |
| 66 | XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF · Consumer Staples | Whole market | +7.2% | 13.8% | 0.57 | −24.5% | +121% | 0.12 | 0.08% |
| 67 | FLDRFidelity Low Duration Bond Factor ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.2% | 3.09 | −12.2% | — | 0.34 | 0.15% |
| 68 | VPLVanguard FTSE Pacific ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +9.5% | 18.6% | 0.58 | −33.9% | +141% | 0.16 | 0.07% |
| 69 | TBUXT. Rowe Price Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.1% | 1.1% | 3.85 | −1.8% | — | 0.34 | 0.17% |
| 70 | MOATVanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +9.1% | 18.4% | 0.57 | −33.3% | +276% | 0.22 | 0.46% |
| 71 | FTSLFirst Trust Senior Loan Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +5.0% | 3.4% | 1.49 | −22.7% | +52.1% | -0.03 | 0.70% |
| 72 | JAVAJPMorgan Active Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.5% | 0.82 | −16.5% | — | — | 0.44% |
| 73 | QYLDGlobal X - Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.0% | 0.62 | −24.7% | +156% | 0.20 | 0.60% |
| 74 | DFAEDimensional - Emerging Core Equity Market ETF · Emerging Markets Equity | Whole market | +8.3% | 18.8% | 0.52 | −32.2% | — | 0.16 | 0.29% |
| 75 | DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +9.8% | 12.4% | 0.82 | −20.4% | — | -0.16 | 0.85% |
| 76 | USMCPrincipal U.S. Mega-Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.1% | 16.4% | 0.89 | −30.0% | — | 0.13 | 0.12% |
| 77 | CMSACMS Energy Corporation 5.6% JRSUB NT 78 · Corporate Bonds | Whole market | −1.0% | 11.6% | -0.03 | −32.3% | — | 0.37 | — |
| 78 | IDAIDACORP, Inc. · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +8.8% | 19.2% | 0.54 | −34.3% | +141% | 0.14 | — |
| 79 | FVDFirst Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +6.1% | 12.8% | 0.53 | −35.3% | +134% | 0.20 | 0.62% |
| 80 | FTCSFirst Trust Capital Strength ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +6.2% | 13.2% | 0.52 | −31.9% | +188% | 0.18 | 0.53% |
| 81 | DUKBDuke Energy Corporation 5.625% · Junior Subordinated Debt | Whole market | +0.1% | 9.4% | 0.06 | −18.8% | — | 0.34 | — |
| 82 | EMBiShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · International Bonds | Whole market | +1.3% | 9.8% | 0.18 | −28.7% | +26.4% | 0.27 | 0.39% |
| 83 |  MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream | Whole market | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | -0.02 | — |
| 84 | SOJCThe Southern Company JR 2017B NT 77 · Junior Subordinated Debt | Whole market | −1.6% | 12.2% | -0.07 | −22.1% | — | 0.40 | — |
| 85 | IDMOInvesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.3% | 18.2% | 0.78 | −31.3% | +229% | 0.14 | 0.25% |
| 86 | FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.4% | 0.99 | −20.6% | +158% | 0.04 | 0.95% |
| 87 | AIZNAssurant, Inc. 5.25% Subordinat · Corporate Bonds | Whole market | −2.4% | 18.8% | -0.04 | −28.9% | — | 0.36 | — |
| 88 | ICVTiShares Convertible Bond ETF · Corporate Bonds | Whole market | +3.8% | 14.1% | 0.34 | −33.2% | +205% | 0.22 | 0.20% |
| 89 | OMFLInvesco Russell 1000 Dynamic Multifactor ETF · US Multifactor Equity | Whole market | +9.0% | 16.4% | 0.61 | −33.2% | — | 0.17 | 0.29% |
| 90 | PTLCPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.5% | 11.8% | 0.83 | −26.6% | +188% | 0.31 | 0.60% |
| 91 | DIVIFranklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF · International | Whole market | +13.4% | 15.5% | 0.89 | −27.7% | +184% | 0.17 | 0.09% |
| 92 | AORiShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +6.4% | 10.7% | 0.64 | −23.0% | +118% | 0.24 | 0.20% |
| 93 | SREASempra · Corporate Bonds | Whole market | −1.8% | 13.2% | -0.07 | −33.6% | — | 0.32 | — |
| 94 | XYLDGlobal X - S&P 500 Covered Call ETF · International | Whole market | +7.4% | 11.2% | 0.70 | −33.4% | +128% | 0.18 | 0.60% |
| 95 | EQWLInvesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.6% | 15.0% | 0.81 | −34.3% | +291% | 0.21 | 0.30% |
| 96 | BCIabrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +10.1% | 16.7% | 0.66 | −32.7% | — | -0.23 | 0.26% |
| 97 | FPEFirst Trust Preferred Securities and Income ETF · Preferred Securities | Whole market | +2.0% | 6.7% | 0.34 | −33.3% | +51.3% | 0.33 | 0.83% |
| 98 | FLUDFranklin Ultra Short Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.4% | 2.74 | −1.7% | — | 0.21 | 0.15% |
| 99 | ACWViShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF · International | Whole market | +6.3% | 10.3% | 0.65 | −28.8% | +116% | 0.25 | 0.20% |
| 100 | ACIOAptus Collared Income Opportunity ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.3% | 11.1% | 0.86 | −14.2% | — | 0.18 | 0.79% |
CTA-PA against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against CTA-PA, compared period by period and year by year.
How do CTA-PA's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at CTA-PA, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- PFF, MOO and PFFD were both more rewarding and calmer than CTA-PA over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, CTA-PA returned -8.1% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (20.3% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | +28.1% | 40.5% |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | +17.3% | 39.3% |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | +16.7% | 38.1% |
| DE Deere & Company | +14.4% | 29.9% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | +9.8% | 30.0% |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | +7.4% | 28.7% |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | +6.1% | 29.9% |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | +2.6% | 34.2% |
| PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | −0.2% | 10.5% |
| MOO VanEck Agribusiness ETF | −0.8% | 17.2% |
| PFFD Global X - U.S. Preferred ETF | −2.0% | 11.1% |
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | −5.2% | 37.4% |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | −7.2% | 59.2% |
| CTA-PB EIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs | −7.6% | 26.4% |
| CTA-PA This pageEIDP, Inc. | −8.1% | 20.3% |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | −13.8% | 42.2% |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | −14.4% | 47.1% |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | −21.0% | 47.6% |
| FMC FMC Corporation | −41.7% | 51.5% |
Has CTA-PA consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares CTA-PA with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than CTA-PA helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- 14 of the 18 popular alternatives, led by DE, UAN and CF, outperformed CTA-PA in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- DE, UAN and CF outperformed CTA-PA in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- DE, MOO and PFF earned more for the risk they took than CTA-PA (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than CTA-PA over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| CTA-PA EIDP, Inc. (this page) | — | −11.7% | −11.5% | −13.1% | −9.2% | −10.0% | −0.2% | −34.4% | −19.5% | 20.3% | -0.32 | −40.3% | — | $45B | — |
| DE QualifiedDeere & Company | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −7.5% | +8.1% | +6.9% | +36.5% | +38.3% | +75.4% | +96.1% | +755% | 29.9% | 0.60 | −37.9% | — | $170B | — |
| UAN QualifiedCVR Partners, LP | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −1.7% | +10.7% | +12.1% | +36.1% | +57.8% | +118% | +245% | +528% | 40.5% | 0.82 | −90.3% | — | $1.3B | — |
| CF QualifiedCF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −4.3% | −4.1% | +2.7% | +49.3% | +43.4% | +52.2% | +117% | +516% | 38.1% | 0.60 | −60.7% | — | $18B | — |
| ADM QualifiedArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −3.5% | −5.5% | +19.2% | +39.1% | +31.1% | +22.1% | +42.9% | +156% | 28.7% | 0.40 | −54.1% | — | $39B | — |
| MOO QualifiedVanEck Agribusiness ETF | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −3.5% | −1.1% | −3.2% | +10.1% | +13.3% | +19.6% | −4.1% | +98.8% | 17.2% | 0.04 | −39.5% | 0.56% | $1.1B | — |
| DD QualifiedDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +2.4% | −1.6% | −4.9% | +9.8% | +33.2% | +53.7% | +59.2% | +65.8% | 30.0% | 0.46 | −73.0% | — | $18B | — |
| PFF QualifiediShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −3.9% | −3.3% | −5.5% | −3.9% | −3.8% | +21.6% | −0.9% | +29.6% | 10.5% | 0.04 | −34.1% | 0.45% | $12B | — |
| IPI QualifiedIntrepid Potash, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −13.7% | −6.1% | −10.9% | +13.0% | +14.2% | +52.2% | −31.2% | +177% | 59.2% | 0.17 | −86.1% | — | $429M | — |
| ANDE QualifiedThe Andersons, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | −4.1% | −15.4% | −9.9% | +24.4% | +39.5% | +39.1% | +122% | +118% | 39.3% | 0.61 | −72.7% | — | $2.2B | — |
| BG QualifiedBunge Global S.A. | 3/5 short3/3 long | −8.5% | −14.0% | −14.9% | +13.2% | +8.6% | +10.6% | +34.5% | +131% | 29.9% | 0.35 | −60.5% | — | $20B | — |
| ICL QualifiedICL Group Ltd | 3/5 short3/3 long | −8.8% | −1.6% | −4.7% | −13.7% | −19.2% | +8.2% | −23.4% | +102% | 37.4% | 0.04 | −64.8% | — | $6.3B | — |
| NTR QualifiedNutrien Ltd. | 5/5 short2/3 long | −6.7% | +4.4% | −1.4% | +11.9% | +23.9% | +30.4% | +13.9% | — | 34.2% | 0.25 | −58.2% | — | $33B | — |
| PFFD QualifiedGlobal X - U.S. Preferred ETF | 5/5 short2/3 long | −4.5% | −5.5% | −6.6% | −5.8% | −5.7% | +17.9% | −9.4% | — | 11.1% | -0.12 | −30.9% | 0.23% | $2.0B | — |
| SMG QualifiedThe Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 3/5 short2/3 long | +8.6% | −18.5% | −14.1% | −3.0% | +7.1% | +36.6% | −54.1% | −12.3% | 47.1% | -0.10 | −83.5% | — | $3.3B | — |
| CTA-PB Agricultural InputsEIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs | 0/5 short3/3 long | −11.8% | −12.6% | −13.7% | −10.9% | −11.4% | +4.9% | −32.6% | −13.7% | 26.4% | -0.17 | −39.9% | — | $49B | — |
| MOS Agricultural InputsThe Mosaic Company | 0/5 short1/3 long | −25.8% | −19.6% | −24.5% | −26.7% | −37.4% | −44.6% | −52.3% | −12.6% | 42.2% | -0.14 | −80.8% | — | $5.7B | — |
| CTVA Agricultural InputsCorteva, Inc. | 1/5 short0/3 long | +8.7% | −85.1% | −83.9% | −80.8% | −79.0% | −73.5% | −69.2% | — | 47.6% | 0.04 | −87.1% | — | $8.6B | — |
| FMC Agricultural InputsFMC Corporation | 0/5 short0/3 long | −47.9% | −52.1% | −68.9% | −62.2% | −81.5% | −91.1% | −93.3% | −83.8% | 51.5% | -0.76 | −95.6% | — | $665M | — |
How did CTA-PA do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where CTA-PA ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with CTA-PA and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- CTA-PA finished ahead of the S&P 500 in eight of its 29 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last nine.
- Among its popular alternatives, CTVA came out ahead of CTA-PA most often, in five of the six years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, CTA-PA finished in the top quarter in six of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in five. In 2025, it ranked 13 of 19.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of CTA-PA; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places CTA-PA among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of CTA-PA | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTA-PA This pageEIDP, Inc. | — | +4.0% | +5.2% | −4.9% | −30.9% | +10.8% | +5.5% | +18.4% | −14.9% | +8.8% | +15.7% | −0.1% | +16.8% | −12.2% | +7.8% | +20.8% | +18.6% | +10.3% | +3.5% | −5.6% | +9.3% | −1.2% | +3.9% | +18.4% | +14.6% | +13.7% | +4.5% | −12.0% | +8.7% | +22.9% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 6 of 29 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 19 | 8 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 14 of 19 | 15 of 19 | 5 of 18 | 12 of 17 | 9 of 16 | 6 of 16 | 4 of 16 | 4 of 16 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 15 | 11 of 15 | 15 of 15 | 1 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 21 of 29 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% | +20.4% | +28.7% | +33.5% |
| DE Deere & Company | 19 of 29 | +11.4% | +7.6% | −5.5% | +26.6% | +28.9% | +58.0% | +18.3% | −2.9% | +54.8% | +39.0% | −11.3% | −0.5% | +8.2% | +14.3% | −5.0% | +56.3% | +44.8% | −58.1% | +98.6% | +42.3% | −6.6% | +16.3% | +44.4% | +7.1% | −2.6% | +8.1% | +34.8% | −42.3% | +46.1% |
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | 6 of 14 | +54.1% | +27.2% | −13.8% | +43.7% | +453% | −48.3% | +1.5% | +3.6% | −45.2% | −17.6% | −9.6% | −35.7% | −29.6% | +10.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 12 of 20 | −7.2% | +10.1% | −4.7% | +22.3% | +87.2% | −15.7% | +12.7% | +5.1% | +40.3% | −19.3% | −23.5% | +19.4% | +15.9% | +41.3% | +8.0% | +49.6% | +85.8% | −55.2% | +330% | +69.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 14 of 29 | +18.2% | −27.5% | −20.4% | +40.0% | +37.3% | +12.4% | +17.1% | +5.3% | −9.5% | +28.4% | −27.7% | +22.3% | +61.8% | −1.8% | −2.9% | −2.0% | +10.8% | −36.9% | +47.2% | +31.1% | +12.2% | +49.3% | +24.9% | −12.1% | +1.9% | +32.4% | −24.6% | −16.2% | +6.6% |
| MOO VanEck Agribusiness ETF | 11 of 18 | +15.6% | −12.4% | −8.6% | −8.1% | +24.0% | +14.6% | +22.4% | −6.0% | +21.8% | +12.8% | −8.9% | −0.5% | +5.3% | +14.0% | −11.3% | +23.0% | +58.8% | −51.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 16 of 29 | +28.7% | +1.0% | +14.3% | −13.3% | +15.4% | +13.3% | −14.3% | −23.7% | +26.2% | +13.9% | +15.8% | +4.9% | +40.7% | +15.4% | −14.0% | +25.4% | +88.0% | −60.2% | +1.4% | −6.5% | −9.6% | +21.8% | +44.0% | −9.4% | −5.2% | −15.6% | +50.2% | −8.0% | +33.0% |
| PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | 10 of 18 | +4.9% | +7.2% | +9.3% | −18.2% | +7.2% | +7.9% | +15.9% | −4.7% | +8.1% | +1.3% | +4.3% | +14.1% | −1.0% | +18.2% | −2.0% | +13.9% | +38.4% | −23.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 5 of 17 | +26.5% | −8.2% | −17.3% | −32.4% | +76.9% | −10.9% | +4.2% | −45.4% | +129% | −29.5% | −78.8% | −12.4% | −25.6% | −2.7% | −39.3% | +27.8% | +40.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | 19 of 29 | +33.8% | −28.8% | +67.0% | −7.8% | +61.5% | +0.8% | −13.2% | −2.1% | −29.0% | +43.8% | −39.5% | −9.9% | +110% | −0.3% | +21.6% | +42.3% | +59.0% | −62.8% | +6.3% | +97.7% | +70.6% | +62.2% | +28.6% | +29.5% | +19.1% | +8.0% | −27.2% | +32.0% | −1.1% |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | 13 of 24 | +18.6% | −20.7% | +3.8% | +9.3% | +45.9% | +18.9% | +11.8% | −18.0% | −4.8% | +8.7% | −23.5% | +12.5% | +14.7% | +29.1% | −11.4% | +4.3% | +25.1% | −55.1% | +61.8% | +29.5% | +0.3% | +75.2% | +39.0% | +5.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 10 of 20 | +18.8% | +2.6% | −27.0% | −17.1% | +97.4% | +8.2% | −11.5% | +45.1% | +1.8% | +5.9% | −41.6% | −1.1% | −16.6% | +46.0% | −21.9% | +48.6% | +127% | −35.5% | +122% | +63.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | 3 of 7 | +43.3% | −17.0% | −20.2% | −0.6% | +60.8% | +5.6% | +5.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PFFD Global X - U.S. Preferred ETF | 5 of 8 | +3.2% | +7.1% | +6.8% | −20.2% | +5.1% | +8.9% | +17.4% | −3.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 18 of 29 | −8.0% | +8.3% | +36.9% | −68.8% | −18.0% | +96.2% | +77.0% | −41.0% | +14.5% | +51.9% | +6.5% | +5.9% | +45.5% | −2.9% | −6.0% | +31.3% | +34.0% | −19.2% | −14.8% | +15.4% | +23.8% | +24.2% | +20.6% | +3.1% | +28.8% | −8.2% | +4.7% | +27.0% | +52.3% |
| CTA-PB EIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs | 11 of 29 | +2.0% | +8.6% | −5.9% | −25.0% | −2.3% | +9.1% | +18.6% | −7.1% | +11.8% | +6.8% | −2.6% | +27.7% | −12.6% | +3.5% | +17.1% | +14.5% | +28.5% | −2.1% | −6.2% | +10.1% | −5.3% | +3.1% | +15.3% | +20.9% | +13.4% | +3.6% | −13.5% | +10.7% | +24.2% |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | 10 of 29 | +1.1% | −29.1% | −16.5% | +12.8% | +72.2% | +7.6% | −25.3% | +14.2% | −10.4% | +10.7% | −38.0% | −1.4% | −15.0% | +13.7% | −33.8% | +28.3% | +73.4% | −63.3% | +342% | +46.0% | −10.4% | +64.4% | −6.2% | −17.4% | −16.1% | −2.8% | −22.0% | −33.9% | −15.5% |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | 5 of 6 | +18.9% | +20.2% | −17.5% | +25.6% | +23.5% | +33.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FMC FMC Corporation | 17 of 29 | −70.0% | −19.7% | −48.0% | +15.7% | −2.6% | +17.3% | +58.8% | −21.0% | +68.8% | +46.6% | −30.4% | −23.7% | +30.0% | +37.0% | +8.5% | +44.3% | +25.9% | −17.4% | +43.8% | +45.5% | +10.2% | +41.4% | +24.9% | +842% | −17.1% | +25.0% | +2.4% | −16.7% | −4.0% |
Risk and diversification
How CTA-PA has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were CTA-PA's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents CTA-PA's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all four of CTA-PA's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: CTA-PA fell 40.3% from July 2021 to October 2023, while the S&P 500 slipped only 1.5%.
- The slowest recovery came after CTA-PA fell 30.1% from August 1998 to January 2000; it did not regain that peak until July 2002, two years later.
Green means CTA-PA fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | CTA-PA fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 bear market | −40.3% | −1.5% | Jul 2021 | Oct 2023 | 2.3 years | Not yet | — |
| No named crash | −30.1% | +53.4% | Aug 1998 | Jan 2000 | 17 months | Jul 2002 | 2.5 years |
| No named crash | −27.3% | — | Mar 1987 | Apr 1989 | 2.1 years | Jul 1991 | 2.3 years |
| No named crash | −22.8% | +2.6% | Nov 1993 | Jan 1995 | 14 months | Oct 1995 | 9 months |
| No named crash | −22.3% | +12.4% | Jun 2013 | Nov 2013 | 5 months | Mar 2015 | 16 months |
How did CTA-PA do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far CTA-PA, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- CTA-PA fell less than the S&P 500 in nine of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when CTA-PA fell 6.2% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
- None of its popular alternatives fell less than CTA-PA in most of the crashes they both traded through.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than CTA-PA.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTA-PA This pageEIDP, Inc. | — | −1.5% | −27.4% | −14.8% | −6.8% | −3.5% | −9.6% | −2.7% | 0.0% | −16.3% | −6.2% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| DE Deere & Company | 0 of 10 | −6.7% | −33.8% | −37.4% | −17.5% | −6.9% | −24.9% | −24.2% | 0.0% | −73.3% | −37.3% |
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | 0 of 7 | −7.9% | −49.2% | −77.3% | −24.2% | −10.2% | −58.7% | −25.1% | — | — | — |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 1 of 9 | −10.7% | −26.4% | −46.4% | −28.0% | −6.1% | −56.0% | −36.3% | −1.2% | −76.8% | — |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 2 of 10 | −4.1% | −26.7% | −33.7% | −22.9% | −2.0% | −35.5% | −24.4% | 0.0% | −68.0% | −31.0% |
| MOO VanEck Agribusiness ETF | 1 of 9 | −5.4% | −25.5% | −33.8% | −17.0% | −5.2% | −20.3% | −26.3% | 0.0% | −69.5% | — |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −4.0% | −40.2% | −46.4% | −29.2% | −5.1% | −27.0% | −39.8% | −4.5% | −85.7% | −40.6% |
| PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | 3 of 9 | −7.0% | −18.1% | −33.9% | −8.2% | −0.7% | −6.8% | −14.4% | 0.0% | −64.7% | — |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 0 of 8 | −12.9% | −69.2% | −64.0% | −39.4% | −6.8% | −78.9% | −32.4% | −1.7% | — | — |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −10.0% | −48.8% | −29.6% | −28.0% | −6.2% | −37.3% | −29.6% | −3.7% | −78.0% | −22.8% |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | 0 of 9 | −5.6% | −34.7% | −44.0% | −25.8% | −3.1% | −39.5% | −23.7% | 0.0% | −77.3% | — |
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 0 of 9 | −8.3% | −32.7% | −26.8% | −19.4% | −4.7% | −42.6% | −34.9% | 0.0% | −79.9% | — |
| NTR Nutrien Ltd. | 0 of 5 | −8.9% | −36.9% | −41.9% | −24.8% | −10.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| PFFD Global X - U.S. Preferred ETF | 2 of 5 | −7.6% | −19.0% | −30.7% | −7.3% | −0.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 1 of 10 | −6.8% | −75.1% | −38.0% | −25.2% | −2.7% | −11.1% | −21.0% | −0.9% | −62.7% | −31.2% |
| CTA-PB EIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs | 5 of 10 | −4.4% | −19.2% | −26.9% | −5.5% | −2.5% | −3.5% | −6.1% | −1.7% | −15.7% | −7.0% |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | 0 of 10 | −12.4% | −44.0% | −63.8% | −25.2% | −7.3% | −50.4% | −35.6% | 0.0% | −86.1% | −52.7% |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | 1 of 3 | −5.8% | −19.4% | −34.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FMC FMC Corporation | 0 of 10 | −6.3% | −27.9% | −44.8% | −23.8% | −5.7% | −32.8% | −28.3% | −1.8% | −62.2% | −44.0% |
How closely does CTA-PA move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares CTA-PA with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Over the past 10 years, CTA-PA captured 19% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 51% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.23. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
- 14 of the 15 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than CTA-PA's 0.38, led by DE, CF and UAN.
- CTA-PB took just 42% of the S&P 500's losses, against 51% for CTA-PA, while still keeping 19% of its gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than CTA-PA's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTA-PA This pageEIDP, Inc. | 19% | 51% | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| DE Deere & Company | 110% | 66% | 1.67 | 0.98 |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 102% | 78% | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| UAN CVR Partners, LP | 114% | 103% | 1.11 | 1.03 |
| ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | 54% | 54% | 1.01 | 0.65 |
| BG Bunge Global S.A. | 67% | 72% | 0.92 | 0.66 |
| ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 72% | 79% | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| MOO VanEck Agribusiness ETF | 73% | 98% | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| IPI Intrepid Potash, Inc. | 142% | 202% | 0.70 | 1.71 |
| ICL ICL Group Ltd | 88% | 126% | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| PFF iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF | 39% | 59% | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 96% | 151% | 0.63 | 1.28 |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | 82% | 154% | 0.53 | 1.32 |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | 90% | 185% | 0.48 | 1.52 |
| CTA-PB EIDP, Inc. USD 4.50 Cum Pfd Registered Shs | 19% | 42% | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| FMC FMC Corporation | 35% | 157% | 0.22 | 0.71 |
What diversifies CTA-PA?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with CTA-PA's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing CTA-PA with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in CTA-PA into DXJ would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 20% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (-7.1% for CTA-PA alone, -0.7% for the mix).
- FIX made money in seven of the eight calendar years in which CTA-PA lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of CTA-PA over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.09 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which CTA-PA lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% CTA-PA and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2023 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2013 | 2007 | 2005 | 1999 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTA-PA EIDP, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | −34.4% | -0.32 | −4.9% | −30.9% | −14.9% | −0.1% | −12.2% | −5.6% | −1.2% | −12.0% | 15.3% | −7.1% |
| LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.09 | +119% | 1.48 | +17.4% | +3.8% | −5.2% | — | — | — | — | — | 12.6% | −2.4% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | -0.07 | +225% | 1.34 | +42.0% | +6.0% | −19.8% | +7.7% | +41.3% | −7.4% | — | — | 12.3% | −0.7% |
| EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.04 | +101% | 1.04 | +8.0% | +10.4% | −8.7% | −25.3% | +16.6% | — | — | — | 12.7% | −2.6% |
| HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.16 | +83.3% | 1.00 | +1.8% | +7.1% | −3.0% | −0.3% | +23.8% | — | — | — | 13.0% | −3.2% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.05 | +323% | 0.97 | +73.4% | −33.5% | −9.1% | −0.3% | +33.4% | +6.0% | +10.8% | — | 14.4% | +1.7% |
| DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.12 | +85.0% | 0.96 | +20.1% | −5.1% | −9.5% | +4.1% | +26.4% | — | — | — | 12.7% | −3.0% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.09 | +126% | 0.96 | +12.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | −10.7% | −28.3% | +30.4% | +17.8% | — | 13.0% | −2.1% |
| SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.08 | +136% | 0.93 | +17.6% | −10.4% | −0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | 13.3% | −1.4% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2023 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2013 | 2007 | 2005 | 1999 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTA-PA EIDP, Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | −34.4% | -0.32 | −4.9% | −30.9% | −14.9% | −0.1% | −12.2% | −5.6% | −1.2% | −12.0% | 15.3% | −7.1% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | -0.06 | +479% | 1.55 | +34.1% | +54.1% | −24.5% | +12.6% | +66.0% | −9.8% | +18.7% | −36.8% | 13.0% | +1.4% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.00 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +160% | +1.3% | −16.3% | −6.0% | +27.6% | −25.7% | −25.2% | +350% | 16.9% | +12.7% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.01 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +79.6% | +17.0% | +0.8% | +67.7% | +61.7% | +2.1% | +20.1% | −58.7% | 15.3% | +9.1% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | -0.14 | +413% | 1.44 | +24.1% | +51.8% | −28.4% | −4.5% | +67.7% | +29.7% | +64.9% | −71.3% | 12.6% | +0.9% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | -0.12 | +690% | 1.41 | +30.4% | +86.6% | −8.2% | +17.4% | +48.6% | — | — | — | 13.1% | +3.3% |
Common questions
What was CTA-PA's worst drawdown?
CTA-PA's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 40.3%, from July 2021 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
What were CTA-PA's best and worst years?
Over 29 full calendar years, CTA-PA's best year was 1997, when it returned 22.8%. Its worst was 2022, with a return of -30.9%.
Is there a better investment than CTA-PA?
Among CTA-PA's popular alternatives, PFF, PFFD and MOO earned more than CTA-PA with less volatility over the past 5 years. PFF returned a loss of 0.2% a year at 10.5% volatility, against a loss of 8.1% a year at 20.3%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, LIN (chemicals) earned more for the risk it took than CTA-PA over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 32.6%, against 40.3% for CTA-PA.
Is CTA-PA more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. CTA-PA's volatility over the past 5 years was 20.3%, 1.2 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CTA-PA's return lands within 20.3% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is CTA-PA's Sharpe ratio?
CTA-PA's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.32, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CTA-PA earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is CTA-PA with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, CTA-PA's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.15 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CTA-PA instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CTA-PA holding.
What are the best alternatives to CTA-PA?
Of the 18 popular alternatives we compared, 14 outperformed CTA-PA in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: DE, UAN and CF.
Did CTA-PA outperform the S&P 500?
CTA-PA finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in eight of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +4.1%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did CTA-PA do in stock market crashes?
CTA-PA fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in nine of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when CTA-PA fell 6.2% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
What diversifies CTA-PA?
These had a low correlation with CTA-PA over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.09), DXJ (correlation -0.07) and EMLP (correlation 0.04); among large stocks, CAH (correlation -0.06), CLS (correlation -0.00) and FIX (correlation 0.01). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than CTA-PA's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of CTA-PA's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.
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