Relative Intelligence · Industrial Machinery

How Illinois Tool Works (ITW) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on ITW alone. It places ITW (Illinois Tool Works Inc.) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where ITW stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: ITW's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowOver the past 6 months, ITW rose 2.1% against 9.1% for the S&P 500 and 11.2% for the Nasdaq 100. Its industrial machinery peers split over the past 6 months: EMR (Emerson Electric) rose 10.1%, while DOV (Dover) fell 10.7%. Consistency ↓
- Stock or market?ITW held up far better than its industry: it rose 1.9% over the past 3 months while the industrial machinery ETF XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) fell 6.1%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Its industrial machinery peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: EMR (Emerson Electric) rose 17.9%, while ROK (Rockwell Automation) fell 6.4%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsITW has trailed the market, rising 11.7% over the past year against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (32.1% against 89.3%). The last two calendar years both went the same way: ITW fell 0.4% in 2025, against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. By year ↓
- Long termITW turned $10,000 into $30,800 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashThe Covid crash took 37.9% off ITW, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. That was more than XYL (Xylem, 35.9%) but less than PH (Parker-Hannifin, 54.7%). ITW fell further than the S&P 500 in three of the last three sell-offs, including the Covid crash (37.9% against 33.7%). Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationITW is more of the same, not a cushion: a correlation of 0.66 with the S&P 500 over 5 years and 0.67 with the total US market, more closely than 96% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Over 10 years, ITW's beta versus the S&P 500 was 1.04: in the S&P 500's rising months it gained 94% as much as the index, and in falling months it lost 1.2 times as much. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Popular alternatives
- FAST (Fastenal) earned more for the risk it took than ITW over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 30.7%, against 37.9% for ITW.
- Nearby categories and themes
- PPA (Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, aerospace & defense) earned more than ITW with less volatility over the past 5 years: 16.3% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 6.7% a year at 21.4%.
- Versus the S&P 500
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 6.7% at 21.4% for ITW.
How much would $10,000 in ITW have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in ITW over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of ITW over the same span and ITW's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in ITW at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $188,355 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Six of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of ITW, and ROK finished highest, at $1,295,740.
Choose a period
From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 311 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of ITW; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- ROK$1M+12,857% total · +18.3% a year
- AME$869,262+8,593% total · +16.6% a year
- PH$505,227+4,952% total · +14.5% a year
- FAST$485,606+4,756% total · +14.3% a year
- GWW$444,276+4,343% total · +14.0% a year
- NDSN$336,601+3,266% total · +12.9% a year
- ITW$188,355+1,784% total · +10.7% a year
- WTS$181,273+1,713% total · +10.5% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
- EMR$115,655+1,057% total · +8.8% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 1,748 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of ITW; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- PH$36,392+264% total · +29.5% a year
- GWW$33,303+233% total · +27.2% a year
- WTS$21,898+119% total · +17.0% a year
- FAST$21,648+116% total · +16.7% a year
- AME$20,638+106% total · +15.6% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- EMR$18,174+81.7% total · +12.7% a year
- ROK$16,096+61.0% total · +10.0% a year
- NDSN$14,600+46.0% total · +7.9% a year
- ITW$14,020+40.2% total · +7.0% a year
ITW at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- ITW's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 54.9%, from October 2007 to March 2009. It took 22 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, ITW's best was 1997, when it returned 51.9%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 32.7%. It lost money in ten of those years.
- ITW is 6.9% below its all-time high.
The company
- Market value
- $78B
- Industry
- Industrial - Machinery
- Price history from
- October 1986
Returns
- Past 1 year
- +11.7%total return
- Past 3 years
- +32.1%+9.7% a year
- Past 5 years
- +38.4%+6.7% a year
- Past 10 years
- +208%+11.9% a year
- Best calendar year
- +51.9%1997
- Worst calendar year
- −32.7%2008
- Losing years
- 10 of 29full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 21.4%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.41return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −54.9%Oct 2007 to Mar 2009
- From its all-time high
- −6.9%below the peak
ITW against the whole market
Where ITW ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does ITW rank among all stocks?
This section ranks ITW on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how ITW stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- ITW's worst decline of the past 10 years ranks in the top 5% of the 2,187 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top fell the least.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | ITW | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +11.7% | 1,520 of 3,287 | top 46% |
| 3-year return | +32.1% | 1,815 of 3,017 | bottom 41% |
| 5-year return | +38.4% | 1,236 of 2,893 | top 43% |
| 10-year return | +208% | 833 of 2,202 | top 38% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 21.4% | 133 of 2,893 | top 5% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.41 | 1,200 of 2,893 | top 41% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −37.9% | 99 of 2,187 | top 5% |
What has beaten ITW on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). ITW sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than ITW with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 30 stocks and 371 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than ITW over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 11% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half ITW's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 17.0% a year at 11.1% volatility, 48% less than ITW's 21.4%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against 0.41 for ITW. DXJ earned the most, 26.6% a year, while still swinging less than ITW (19.1% against 21.4%).
- None of ITW's popular alternatives made it, but PPA (aerospace & defense) did: 16.3% a year at 18.9% volatility, 12% less than ITW's 21.4%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to ITW; faint dots are 93 more of the 401 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than ITW?
Investments that beat ITW over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among ITW's popular alternatives, FAST earned more for the risk it took than ITW over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 30.7%, against 37.9% for ITW.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, PPA (aerospace & defense) earned more than ITW with less volatility over the past 5 years: 16.3% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 6.7% a year at 21.4%.
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 6.7% at 21.4% for ITW.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat ITW over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks ITW's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than ITW follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than ITW's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× ITW's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than ITW's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with ITW?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| +6.7% | 21.4% | 0.41 | −37.9% | +208% | 1.00 | — | |||
| +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | 0.66 | 0.09% | |||
| Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against ITW. 8 of 24 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +15.8% | 24.6% | 0.72 | −30.7% | +576% | 0.61 | — | ||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +14.4% | 22.1% | 0.72 | −42.7% | +481% | 0.71 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +26.3% | 24.9% | 1.07 | −41.6% | +654% | 0.72 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +12.7% | 27.7% | 0.57 | −50.8% | +309% | 0.56 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +7.8% | 32.3% | 0.40 | −45.1% | +335% | 0.59 | — | ||
WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc. · Industrial Machinery | Higher return in most periods | +15.3% | 28.4% | 0.65 | −44.1% | +539% | 0.72 | — | |
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Industrial Machinery and the categories next to it (Infrastructure, Electrical Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Industrial Distribution), plus ITW's specific themes. 9 of 83 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
PPAInvesco Aerospace & Defense ETF · Aerospace & Defense | Higher return, lower volatility | +16.3% | 18.9% | 0.90 | −43.9% | +344% | 0.59 | 0.58% | |
| Higher return in most periods | +25.6% | 26.2% | 1.00 | −64.1% | +264% | 0.69 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +14.4% | 29.9% | 0.60 | −37.9% | +755% | 0.64 | — | ||
MOG-AMoog Inc. · Aerospace & Defense | Higher return in most periods | +36.6% | 32.0% | 1.14 | −63.7% | +595% | 0.49 | — | |
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc. · Industrial Distribution | Higher return in most periods | +28.5% | 30.3% | 0.98 | −59.3% | +742% | 0.64 | — | |
| Higher return, similar volatility | +12.9% | 20.8% | 0.69 | −51.6% | +184% | 0.41 | — | ||
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 842 of 3,526 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.78 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.80 | 0.04% | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.59 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.48 | — | ||
LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.70 | 0.40% | |
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +11.4% | 17.0% | 0.72 | −23.1% | — | 0.75 | 0.21% | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +12.1% | 13.7% | 0.90 | −36.8% | +235% | 0.82 | 0.03% | ||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.53 | — | ||
| Similar return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +7.5% | 11.0% | 0.71 | −13.7% | — | 0.82 | 0.35% | ||
What these numbers mean for ITW
- Annual return
- ITW returned 6.7% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $13,800. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- ITW's volatility over the past 5 years was 21.4%, 1.2 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, ITW's return lands within 21.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- ITW's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.41, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so ITW earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- ITW's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 37.9%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 37.9% fall takes a 60.9% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, ITW's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.66 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against ITW instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a ITW holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 401 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than ITW with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with ITW | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whole market | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.78 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.80 | 0.04% | |
| 2 | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.59 | — | |
| 3 | Whole market | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.48 | — | |
| 4 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.70 | 0.40% |
| 5 | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.0% | 0.72 | −23.1% | — | 0.75 | 0.21% | |
| 6 | PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.5% | 8.6% | 1.20 | −18.2% | — | 0.67 | 0.79% |
| 7 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +11.1% | 10.5% | 1.05 | −13.6% | — | 0.63 | 0.85% |
| 8 | Whole market | +12.1% | 13.7% | 0.90 | −36.8% | +235% | 0.82 | 0.03% | |
| 9 | Whole market | +12.0% | 18.8% | 0.70 | −30.9% | +114% | 0.44 | — | |
| 10 | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.3% | 0.60 | −28.4% | +202% | 0.62 | 0.08% | |
| 11 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.14 | — |
| 12 | DFIVDimensional - International Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +14.8% | 16.4% | 0.93 | −25.4% | — | 0.68 | 0.27% |
| 13 | AVLVAvantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +14.0% | 16.9% | 0.86 | −19.5% | — | 0.80 | 0.15% |
| 14 | OEFiShares S&P 100 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +14.3% | 17.8% | 0.84 | −31.4% | +367% | 0.56 | 0.20% |
| 15 | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.3% | 0.72 | −33.4% | +252% | 0.79 | 0.06% | |
| 16 | SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +12.0% | 16.7% | 0.76 | −31.6% | +300% | 0.74 | 0.20% |
| 17 | BUFRFT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF · Buffered Equity | Whole market | +9.9% | 10.5% | 0.96 | −13.7% | — | 0.68 | 0.10% |
| 18 | Whole market | +13.9% | 18.5% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +446% | 0.46 | — | |
| 19 | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.54 | — | |
| 20 | BBJPJPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +9.3% | 18.6% | 0.57 | −32.7% | — | 0.58 | 0.19% |
| 21 | DBEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.1% | 13.8% | 0.96 | −32.5% | +206% | 0.71 | 0.35% |
| 22 | IOOiShares Global 100 ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +15.7% | 17.2% | 0.94 | −31.4% | +361% | 0.56 | 0.40% |
| 23 | DIVOAmplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +11.1% | 11.9% | 0.95 | −30.0% | — | 0.79 | 0.56% |
| 24 | IQLTiShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +7.8% | 16.5% | 0.54 | −32.2% | +155% | 0.70 | 0.30% |
| 25 | Whole market | +17.7% | 18.9% | 0.96 | −26.4% | +213% | 0.12 | 0.40% | |
| 26 | VDCVanguard Consumer Staples ETF · Consumer Staples Equity | Whole market | +7.8% | 13.6% | 0.62 | −25.3% | +128% | 0.73 | 0.09% |
| 27 | QYLDGlobal X - Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.0% | 0.62 | −24.7% | +156% | 0.45 | 0.60% |
| 28 | TSPAT. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.1% | 17.1% | 0.81 | −24.7% | — | 0.64 | 0.34% |
| 29 | Whole market | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | 0.60 | — | |
| 30 | FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.4% | 0.99 | −20.6% | +158% | 0.62 | 0.95% |
| 31 | PTLCPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.5% | 11.8% | 0.83 | −26.6% | +188% | 0.46 | 0.60% |
| 32 | SPUSSP Funds S&P 500 Sharia Industry Exclusions ETF · Technology | Whole market | +15.0% | 19.5% | 0.82 | −30.8% | — | 0.54 | 0.45% |
| 33 | BCIabrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +10.1% | 16.7% | 0.66 | −32.7% | — | 0.09 | 0.26% |
| 34 | ACIOAptus Collared Income Opportunity ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.3% | 11.1% | 0.86 | −14.2% | — | 0.61 | 0.79% |
| 35 | SCHYSchwab International Dividend Equity ETF · International | Whole market | +9.5% | 13.3% | 0.75 | −24.0% | — | 0.67 | 0.08% |
| 36 | Whole market | +9.3% | 19.2% | 0.56 | −30.1% | +344% | 0.50 | — | |
| 37 | AVIVAvantis International Large Cap Value ETF · International | Whole market | +12.6% | 16.7% | 0.80 | −27.7% | — | 0.70 | 0.25% |
| 38 | IPACiShares Core MSCI Pacific ETF · International | Whole market | +8.2% | 16.9% | 0.55 | −31.0% | +126% | 0.63 | 0.09% |
| 39 | IHEiShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +12.6% | 16.8% | 0.80 | −29.6% | +151% | 0.56 | 0.37% |
| 40 | INFLHorizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.8% | 17.8% | 0.72 | −21.3% | — | 0.68 | 0.85% |
| 41 | TDVGT. Rowe Price Dividend Growth ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.6% | 13.8% | 0.73 | −19.2% | — | 0.81 | 0.50% |
| 42 | DBJPXtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF · International | Whole market | +20.9% | 19.2% | 1.09 | −31.3% | +348% | 0.40 | 0.45% |
| 43 | PPHVanEck Pharmaceutical ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +11.6% | 15.8% | 0.78 | −29.7% | +153% | 0.57 | 0.36% |
| 44 | PTNQPacer Trendpilot 100 ETF · Technology | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.1% | 0.73 | −28.1% | +305% | 0.31 | 0.65% |
| 45 | FTQIFirst Trust Nasdaq BuyWrite Income ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.8% | 0.82 | −19.4% | +121% | 0.52 | 0.75% |
| 46 | FTXHFirst Trust Nasdaq Pharmaceuticals ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +11.9% | 16.9% | 0.75 | −32.1% | +153% | 0.57 | 0.60% |
| 47 | FLSPFranklin Systematic Style Premia ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +8.4% | 13.4% | 0.68 | −22.9% | — | 0.15 | 0.65% |
| 48 | SIXHETC 6 Meridian Hedged Equity Index Option ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.2% | 1.00 | −11.7% | — | 0.70 | 0.31% |
| 49 | DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity | Whole market | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.40 | 0.48% |
| 50 | Whole market | +14.7% | 16.8% | 0.91 | −37.0% | +204% | 0.47 | — | |
| 51 | WTPIWisdomTree Equity Premium Income Fund · Alternatives | Whole market | +9.1% | 12.2% | 0.78 | −28.4% | +121% | 0.59 | 0.44% |
| 52 | LGHHCM Defender 500 Index ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.4% | 16.7% | 0.63 | −29.6% | — | 0.53 | 1.00% |
| 53 | QUSState Street SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.1% | 14.2% | 0.81 | −33.8% | +273% | 0.77 | 0.15% |
| 54 | Whole market | +15.8% | 20.0% | 0.84 | −42.0% | +310% | 0.50 | — | |
| 55 | EQLALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.5% | 14.5% | 0.94 | −34.2% | +387% | 0.82 | 0.19% |
| 56 | Whole market | +16.4% | 17.1% | 0.98 | −58.1% | +178% | 0.52 | — | |
| 57 | QDEFNorthern Trust Quality Dividend Defensive ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +12.7% | 13.7% | 0.94 | −35.7% | +228% | 0.77 | 0.40% |
| 58 | Whole market | +12.9% | 19.9% | 0.71 | −46.9% | +187% | 0.62 | — | |
| 59 | Whole market | +10.3% | 16.2% | 0.69 | −34.2% | +223% | 0.69 | 0.06% | |
| 60 | Whole market | +8.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | −39.0% | +211% | 0.83 | 0.20% | |
| 61 | Whole market | +11.9% | 19.4% | 0.68 | −54.4% | +30.4% | 0.20 | — | |
| 62 | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.3% | 0.71 | −34.1% | +293% | 0.72 | 0.15% | |
| 63 | Whole market | +8.2% | 19.4% | 0.51 | −45.3% | +169% | 0.80 | 0.05% | |
| 64 | SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +20.6% | 18.4% | 1.12 | −45.7% | — | 0.09 | 0.80% |
| 65 | Whole market | +11.7% | 19.4% | 0.67 | −50.8% | +255% | 0.55 | — | |
| 66 | FNDFSchwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 16.3% | 0.87 | −40.2% | +194% | 0.66 | 0.25% |
| 67 | VOEVanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap Value ETF · US Mid-Cap Equity | Whole market | +9.4% | 15.8% | 0.65 | −43.2% | +182% | 0.84 | 0.05% |
| 68 | PVALPutnam Focused Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +16.1% | 15.1% | 1.07 | −41.3% | — | 0.78 | 0.56% |
| 69 | HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +12.9% | 13.0% | 1.00 | −37.0% | +172% | 0.77 | 0.08% |
| 70 | AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.9% | 17.4% | 0.84 | −43.0% | — | 0.61 | 0.36% |
| 71 | RDVYFirst Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +11.3% | 18.8% | 0.67 | −40.6% | +322% | 0.81 | 0.47% |
| 72 | EMXCiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF · Emerging Markets Equity | Whole market | +11.1% | 19.5% | 0.64 | −42.8% | — | 0.44 | 0.25% |
| 73 | COWZPacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.7% | 0.70 | −38.7% | — | 0.74 | 0.49% |
| 74 | AMLPAlerian MLP ETF · Energy Equity | Whole market | +16.1% | 18.9% | 0.89 | −72.9% | +91.0% | 0.55 | 1.01% |
| 75 | FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +13.2% | 14.6% | 0.92 | −40.2% | +253% | 0.76 | 0.15% |
| 76 | ESGVVanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF · US ESG Equity | Whole market | +11.3% | 18.5% | 0.67 | −33.7% | — | 0.61 | 0.09% |
| 77 | JQUAJPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 15.7% | 0.89 | −32.9% | — | 0.72 | 0.12% |
| 78 | VLUEiShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +15.9% | 18.4% | 0.90 | −39.5% | +286% | 0.59 | 0.15% |
| 79 | VPLVanguard FTSE Pacific ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +9.5% | 18.6% | 0.58 | −33.9% | +141% | 0.54 | 0.07% |
| 80 | FNDESchwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Large Company Index ETF · Emerging Markets Equity | Whole market | +9.8% | 17.0% | 0.64 | −39.9% | +151% | 0.46 | 0.39% |
| 81 | MOATVanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +9.1% | 18.4% | 0.57 | −33.3% | +276% | 0.73 | 0.46% |
| 82 | PDBCInvesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · Broad Commodities | Whole market | +11.7% | 19.3% | 0.67 | −40.7% | +153% | 0.05 | 0.74% |
| 83 | GCOWPacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF · International | Whole market | +14.1% | 13.6% | 1.04 | −37.6% | +168% | 0.67 | 0.60% |
| 84 | GUNRNorthern Trust Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources ETF · Natural Resources Equity | Whole market | +10.1% | 18.8% | 0.60 | −43.0% | +173% | 0.57 | 0.47% |
| 85 | MLPXGlobal X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF · Energy | Whole market | +18.6% | 19.7% | 0.97 | −64.6% | +186% | 0.63 | 0.45% |
| 86 | NINiSource Inc · Gas Utilities | Whole market | +15.1% | 20.3% | 0.80 | −30.9% | +158% | 0.55 | — |
| 87 | OMFLInvesco Russell 1000 Dynamic Multifactor ETF · US Multifactor Equity | Whole market | +9.0% | 16.4% | 0.61 | −33.2% | — | 0.72 | 0.29% |
| 88 | WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.0% | 0.83 | −42.2% | +303% | 0.80 | 0.12% |
| 89 | DFAIDimensional - International Core Equity Market ETF · Developed International Equity | Whole market | +9.7% | 16.0% | 0.66 | −27.4% | — | 0.71 | 0.18% |
| 90 | DIVBiShares Core Dividend ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +13.9% | 15.4% | 0.93 | −36.9% | — | 0.77 | 0.05% |
| 91 | PWVInvesco Large Cap Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.5% | 14.2% | 0.97 | −37.6% | +223% | 0.81 | 0.55% |
| 92 | JMOMJPMorgan U.S. Momentum Factor ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +12.9% | 19.1% | 0.73 | −34.3% | — | 0.63 | 0.12% |
| 93 | NULVNuveen ESG Large-Cap Value · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.2% | 14.2% | 0.69 | −37.0% | — | 0.76 | 0.26% |
| 94 | DSTLDistillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.3% | 16.1% | 0.75 | −33.1% | — | 0.81 | 0.39% |
| 95 | DHSWisdomTree U.S. High Dividend Fund · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +12.0% | 13.9% | 0.89 | −37.4% | +156% | 0.78 | 0.38% |
| 96 | RODMHartford Multifactor Developed Markets (ex-US) ETF · International | Whole market | +10.6% | 13.5% | 0.82 | −36.0% | +141% | 0.70 | 0.29% |
| 97 | FSMDFidelity Small-Mid Multifactor ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +8.8% | 18.5% | 0.55 | −40.7% | — | 0.77 | 0.15% |
| 98 | FGDFirst Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund · International | Whole market | +11.6% | 14.8% | 0.82 | −44.8% | +155% | 0.62 | 0.55% |
| 99 | RLYState Street Multi-Asset Real Return ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +9.9% | 13.3% | 0.78 | −34.2% | +128% | 0.59 | 0.50% |
| 100 | RDIVInvesco S&P Ultra Dividend Revenue ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +12.2% | 17.3% | 0.75 | −50.0% | +184% | 0.72 | 0.39% |
ITW against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against ITW, compared period by period and year by year.
How do ITW's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at ITW, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- None of the 24 popular alternatives earned more than ITW over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Over the past 5 years, ITW returned 6.7% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (21.4% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than ITW with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | +27.4% | 28.8% |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | +26.3% | 24.9% |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | +21.8% | 36.3% |
| ETN Eaton Corporation plc | +20.4% | 32.1% |
| FAST Fastenal Company | +15.8% | 24.6% |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | +15.4% | 36.6% |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | +15.3% | 28.4% |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | +14.4% | 22.1% |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | +14.1% | 27.5% |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | +12.9% | 23.6% |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | +12.7% | 27.7% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | +8.1% | 30.4% |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | +7.8% | 32.3% |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | +7.1% | 25.2% |
| ITW This pageIllinois Tool Works Inc. | +6.7% | 21.4% |
| DOV Dover Corporation | +4.4% | 25.1% |
| GGG Graco Inc. | +3.5% | 22.9% |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | +2.7% | 24.0% |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | +1.5% | 22.8% |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | +1.2% | 25.5% |
| F Ford Motor Company | +0.6% | 39.2% |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | −2.5% | 26.5% |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | −4.7% | 34.3% |
| PNR Pentair plc | −5.2% | 29.9% |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | −9.6% | 38.3% |
Has ITW consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares ITW with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than ITW helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- Six of the 25 popular alternatives, led by FAST, EMR and NDSN, outperformed ITW in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- FAST, EMR and NDSN outperformed ITW in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- FAST earned more for the risk it took than ITW (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in its worst decline of the past 10 years.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than ITW over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. (this page) | — | +3.5% | +1.9% | +2.1% | +12.3% | +11.7% | +32.1% | +38.4% | +208% | 21.4% | 0.41 | −37.9% | — | $78B | — |
| FAST QualifiedFastenal Company | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +4.0% | +16.0% | +14.6% | +29.8% | +22.8% | +92.7% | +108% | +576% | 24.6% | 0.72 | −30.7% | — | $59B | — |
| EMR QualifiedEmerson Electric Co. | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +5.8% | +17.9% | +10.1% | +19.5% | +25.0% | +84.9% | +82.1% | +309% | 27.7% | 0.57 | −50.8% | — | $90B | — |
| NDSN QualifiedNordson Corporation | 5/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +4.0% | +15.0% | +16.2% | +36.9% | +40.5% | +57.7% | +40.9% | +262% | 25.2% | 0.40 | −44.2% | — | $18B | — |
| GWW QualifiedW.W. Grainger, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +4.6% | −2.4% | +15.3% | +33.9% | +38.7% | +98.1% | +221% | +654% | 24.9% | 1.07 | −41.6% | — | $63B | — |
| WTS QualifiedWatts Water Technologies, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +2.1% | +5.3% | +22.3% | +29.2% | +28.1% | +113% | +104% | +539% | 28.4% | 0.65 | −44.1% | — | $12B | — |
| AME QualifiedAMETEK, Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +2.5% | +5.3% | +4.8% | +18.8% | +32.8% | +78.1% | +96.1% | +481% | 22.1% | 0.72 | −42.7% | — | $57B | — |
| ROK Industrial - MachineryRockwell Automation, Inc. | 2/5 short3/3 long | +0.7% | −6.4% | +4.1% | +8.4% | +22.9% | +68.9% | +45.6% | +335% | 32.3% | 0.40 | −45.1% | — | $48B | — |
| PH Industrial - MachineryParker-Hannifin Corporation | 1/5 short3/3 long | −1.4% | −0.4% | −4.8% | +6.3% | +28.7% | +161% | +235% | +789% | 28.8% | 0.99 | −54.7% | — | $119B | — |
| ETN Electrical Equipment & PartsEaton Corporation plc | 1/5 short3/3 long | −12.3% | −4.6% | −5.8% | +17.7% | +2.3% | +104% | +153% | +657% | 32.1% | 0.74 | −44.5% | — | $148B | — |
| LECO Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 1/5 short3/3 long | +1.0% | +6.3% | +0.8% | +7.7% | +10.0% | +57.7% | +93.5% | +389% | 27.5% | 0.62 | −38.9% | — | $14B | — |
| SPXC Construction MaterialsSPX Technologies, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | −9.4% | −22.8% | −24.5% | −19.2% | −11.2% | +108% | +168% | +728% | 36.3% | 0.72 | −50.3% | — | $8.2B | — |
| DOV Industrial - MachineryDover Corporation | 2/5 short2/3 long | +5.9% | −5.7% | −10.7% | +1.5% | +17.9% | +51.3% | +24.2% | +320% | 25.1% | 0.30 | −45.2% | — | $27B | — |
| FLS Industrial - MachineryFlowserve Corporation | 2/5 short2/3 long | −6.1% | +5.1% | −15.7% | −0.3% | +38.1% | +97.4% | +104% | +94.5% | 36.6% | 0.57 | −64.8% | — | $8.9B | — |
| SNA Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnap-on Incorporated | 0/5 short2/3 long | −0.9% | −9.3% | −4.0% | +6.4% | +10.4% | +56.9% | +83.2% | +195% | 23.6% | 0.63 | −47.4% | — | $19B | — |
| SWK Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 5/5 short1/3 long | +6.1% | +8.5% | +27.7% | +26.8% | +42.0% | +36.2% | −39.7% | +2.0% | 38.3% | -0.07 | −71.3% | — | $14B | — |
| GGG Industrial - MachineryGraco Inc. | 2/5 short1/3 long | +6.3% | +10.5% | −6.3% | −0.5% | −0.1% | +20.3% | +18.5% | +263% | 22.9% | 0.26 | −30.6% | — | $13B | — |
| IR Industrial - MachineryIngersoll Rand Inc. | 1/5 short1/3 long | +8.7% | −2.0% | −8.6% | −1.4% | +0.3% | +30.4% | +47.6% | — | 30.4% | 0.41 | −49.1% | — | $30B | — |
| IEX Industrial - MachineryIDEX Corporation | 5/5 short0/3 long | +5.1% | +5.7% | +14.1% | +32.0% | +41.9% | +26.1% | +14.1% | +205% | 24.0% | 0.23 | −35.5% | — | $17B | — |
| FTV Hardware, Equipment & PartsFortive Corporation | 2/5 short0/3 long | +5.9% | −4.2% | −4.1% | +5.7% | +18.9% | +11.7% | +6.3% | +98.0% | 25.5% | 0.18 | −52.6% | — | $18B | — |
| HON ConglomeratesHoneywell International Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | +3.3% | −5.4% | −10.7% | +5.2% | +6.8% | +27.0% | +7.5% | +160% | 22.8% | 0.18 | −43.0% | — | $68B | — |
| XYL Industrial - MachineryXylem Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −2.1% | −12.6% | −12.1% | −22.5% | −27.4% | +18.7% | −11.7% | +143% | 26.5% | 0.04 | −46.7% | — | $25B | — |
| F Auto - ManufacturersFord Motor Company | 0/5 short0/3 long | −7.8% | −12.2% | −3.5% | −5.9% | +6.0% | +25.9% | +3.0% | +71.8% | 39.2% | 0.21 | −64.7% | — | $48B | — |
| PNR Industrial - MachineryPentair plc | 0/5 short0/3 long | −5.2% | −14.5% | −41.3% | −49.4% | −51.0% | −12.3% | −23.3% | +57.3% | 29.9% | -0.03 | −53.2% | — | $8.4B | — |
| MIDD Industrial - MachineryThe Middleby Corporation | 0/5 short0/3 long | −0.6% | −14.7% | −5.1% | −8.9% | +2.2% | +18.8% | −21.5% | +18.7% | 34.3% | 0.03 | −69.2% | — | $5.0B | — |
| ESAB Industrial - MachineryESAB Corporation | 0/5 short0/3 long | −2.5% | −21.3% | −39.3% | −41.9% | −46.7% | +1.3% | — | — | — | — | −52.0% | — | $4.1B | — |
How did ITW do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where ITW ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with ITW and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- ITW finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 15 of its 29 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last three.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, ITW finished in the top quarter in five of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in two. In 2025, it ranked 17 of 26.
- Among its popular alternatives, IR came out ahead of ITW most often, in five of the eight years both traded.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of ITW; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places ITW among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of ITW | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW This pageIllinois Tool Works Inc. | — | −0.4% | −1.0% | +21.6% | −8.5% | +23.6% | +16.4% | +45.6% | −22.1% | +38.9% | +35.0% | +0.1% | +15.0% | +41.4% | +33.6% | −10.0% | +14.4% | +41.4% | −32.7% | +18.0% | +7.1% | −3.7% | +11.7% | +31.1% | −2.9% | +15.2% | −10.6% | +17.6% | −2.6% | +51.9% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 5 of 29 | 17 of 26 | 17 of 26 | 16 of 26 | 14 of 25 | 13 of 25 | 17 of 25 | 6 of 25 | 20 of 25 | 8 of 24 | 6 of 23 | 6 of 23 | 4 of 23 | 14 of 23 | 7 of 23 | 16 of 22 | 22 of 22 | 7 of 22 | 10 of 22 | 11 of 22 | 17 of 22 | 17 of 22 | 16 of 22 | 16 of 22 | 10 of 22 | 12 of 22 | 17 of 22 | 9 of 22 | 11 of 22 | 5 of 22 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 14 of 29 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% | +20.4% | +28.7% | +33.5% |
| FAST Fastenal Company | 16 of 29 | +14.0% | +13.5% | +41.4% | −24.4% | +34.0% | +36.6% | +45.0% | −1.6% | +17.2% | +18.6% | −11.8% | +2.3% | +3.4% | +10.1% | +48.5% | +47.6% | +22.0% | −12.3% | +14.0% | −7.1% | +28.3% | +25.0% | +34.3% | +12.6% | +20.9% | +21.9% | +2.3% | +15.0% | −16.0% |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | 10 of 29 | +8.9% | +29.7% | +3.8% | +5.7% | +18.2% | +8.6% | +31.6% | −11.9% | +29.1% | +21.0% | −19.7% | −9.6% | +36.1% | +17.3% | −16.3% | +37.8% | +20.7% | −33.6% | +31.5% | +20.7% | +9.2% | +11.0% | +31.4% | −8.3% | −25.7% | +40.8% | −3.0% | +9.2% | +19.1% |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | 16 of 29 | +17.0% | −20.2% | +12.4% | −5.9% | +28.1% | +24.5% | +37.9% | −17.6% | +31.8% | +76.8% | −16.7% | +6.0% | +18.8% | +54.8% | −9.5% | +52.0% | +93.0% | −43.5% | +17.9% | +24.9% | +3.0% | +17.7% | +42.9% | −3.8% | +5.8% | +8.0% | −4.2% | +14.1% | −26.9% |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 14 of 29 | −3.4% | +28.2% | +50.5% | +8.7% | +28.8% | +22.8% | +22.3% | +21.7% | +4.3% | +17.3% | −18.9% | +1.5% | +28.0% | +9.8% | +37.8% | +45.3% | +25.4% | −8.2% | +27.1% | −0.1% | +8.3% | +42.7% | −6.6% | +8.9% | +33.8% | −22.3% | +16.5% | −13.3% | +22.6% |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 15 of 29 | +36.8% | −1.6% | +43.6% | −24.1% | +60.6% | +23.1% | +56.2% | −14.1% | +17.9% | +32.8% | −20.8% | +3.5% | +45.4% | +27.2% | −5.3% | +20.0% | +26.0% | −14.8% | −26.6% | +37.0% | −5.1% | +46.9% | +43.1% | +6.4% | +9.8% | −3.8% | −9.5% | −40.3% | +20.0% |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | 18 of 29 | +14.7% | +10.0% | +18.8% | −4.3% | +22.3% | +22.2% | +48.3% | −5.9% | +50.0% | −8.6% | +2.5% | +0.5% | +41.0% | +34.6% | +7.9% | +54.8% | +27.6% | −35.1% | +47.9% | +13.0% | +20.0% | +48.9% | +26.4% | +21.4% | +23.7% | +37.7% | −13.6% | −16.8% | +22.4% |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 16 of 29 | +38.4% | −6.2% | +22.6% | −24.8% | +41.2% | +26.2% | +37.9% | −21.8% | +48.9% | +34.5% | −5.5% | −3.9% | +43.8% | +17.2% | +4.5% | +56.1% | +50.9% | −51.9% | +14.9% | +4.7% | +21.3% | +41.8% | +76.5% | +20.0% | −11.3% | +5.5% | +168% | −1.9% | +37.1% |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 15 of 29 | +39.5% | +39.6% | +60.8% | −6.9% | +18.3% | +34.8% | +40.7% | −24.0% | +44.3% | +47.6% | −23.1% | +2.0% | +53.9% | +13.7% | −10.1% | +62.7% | +29.4% | −42.5% | +48.6% | +18.0% | −11.8% | +28.9% | +31.2% | +2.1% | +5.7% | −12.5% | +59.3% | −27.5% | +80.2% |
| ETN Eaton Corporation plc | 15 of 29 | −2.8% | +39.5% | +56.2% | −7.2% | +46.7% | +31.0% | +42.8% | −10.0% | +21.5% | +33.8% | −20.7% | −8.2% | +44.2% | +28.6% | −11.8% | +64.0% | +33.3% | −47.1% | +31.6% | +14.4% | −5.4% | +36.5% | +41.1% | +7.6% | +40.8% | +6.0% | +5.3% | −19.0% | +30.7% |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 17 of 29 | +29.6% | −12.6% | +52.6% | +5.4% | +21.9% | +23.0% | +25.4% | −12.2% | +21.4% | +50.9% | −23.3% | −1.8% | +48.6% | +26.5% | +22.1% | +24.6% | +7.8% | −27.3% | +19.3% | +54.6% | +17.2% | +42.7% | +10.2% | −3.0% | +27.9% | −1.8% | −4.5% | +17.4% | +20.6% |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | 17 of 29 | +37.5% | +44.1% | +53.9% | +10.0% | +9.4% | +7.2% | +81.7% | −10.8% | +32.3% | +154% | −56.5% | −12.4% | +43.7% | +18.0% | −14.4% | +32.8% | +37.3% | −60.0% | +70.3% | +36.1% | +16.7% | −30.1% | +57.1% | −45.3% | +26.6% | +33.9% | +20.7% | −2.9% | +78.6% |
| DOV Dover Corporation | 15 of 29 | +5.2% | +23.4% | +15.2% | −24.3% | +45.7% | +11.5% | +65.8% | −11.0% | +37.7% | +25.4% | −12.4% | −8.8% | +49.5% | +15.7% | +1.4% | +43.7% | +30.3% | −26.9% | −4.4% | +22.9% | −1.8% | +7.2% | +38.7% | −20.1% | −7.3% | −9.7% | +25.4% | +2.5% | +44.6% |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | 16 of 29 | +22.5% | +41.9% | +37.3% | +3.1% | −15.0% | −23.9% | +33.7% | −8.2% | −11.2% | +16.0% | −28.6% | −23.4% | +62.6% | +49.6% | −15.6% | +27.6% | +86.1% | −45.8% | +92.3% | +27.4% | +43.8% | +32.0% | +41.0% | −44.4% | +24.3% | +25.8% | +6.1% | −39.5% | +5.0% |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | 16 of 29 | +4.3% | +20.7% | +29.7% | +8.9% | +28.8% | +4.0% | +19.5% | −14.9% | +3.6% | +1.5% | +27.1% | +26.8% | +41.0% | +59.4% | −8.4% | +37.5% | +11.3% | −16.3% | +3.6% | +30.2% | +12.5% | +10.0% | +18.8% | −13.6% | +24.9% | +8.8% | −21.7% | −18.4% | +25.0% |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 13 of 29 | −3.2% | −15.2% | +35.5% | −58.9% | +7.3% | +9.7% | +41.2% | −28.1% | +49.2% | +9.6% | +13.4% | +21.9% | +11.8% | +12.4% | +3.6% | +32.9% | +56.6% | −27.5% | −1.5% | +7.2% | +0.5% | +32.7% | +13.5% | −23.8% | +53.0% | +7.3% | +11.8% | −39.9% | +77.9% |
| GGG Graco Inc. | 17 of 29 | −1.5% | −1.7% | +30.6% | −15.5% | +12.6% | +41.0% | +25.9% | −6.3% | +65.6% | +17.4% | −8.6% | +4.2% | +54.1% | +28.4% | +5.8% | +41.6% | +24.3% | −34.8% | −4.4% | +10.1% | −0.8% | +49.2% | +41.5% | +11.1% | +43.8% | +17.3% | +23.6% | +20.3% | +54.9% |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 5 of 8 | −12.3% | +17.1% | +48.2% | −15.4% | +35.9% | +27.0% | +92.8% | −35.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | 12 of 29 | −13.7% | −2.4% | −3.8% | −2.2% | +19.8% | +17.2% | +37.9% | −3.2% | +48.5% | +19.5% | 0.0% | +7.0% | +61.3% | +27.9% | −3.5% | +27.8% | +31.5% | −32.1% | +15.8% | +16.8% | +2.7% | +48.2% | +29.3% | −3.6% | +6.1% | +11.2% | +26.6% | −28.5% | +33.4% |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | 2 of 9 | −1.9% | +2.3% | +15.1% | −15.4% | +8.1% | +11.2% | +13.3% | −6.1% | +35.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | 14 of 29 | −6.3% | +10.2% | +0.1% | +5.0% | −0.2% | +23.1% | +36.9% | −7.5% | +35.2% | +14.3% | +4.9% | +10.6% | +45.8% | +18.5% | +3.8% | +37.8% | +21.9% | −45.9% | +37.5% | +23.1% | +6.6% | +7.3% | +41.6% | −28.0% | −27.7% | −17.2% | +31.0% | +15.1% | +16.7% |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | 6 of 14 | +18.8% | +2.6% | +4.8% | −6.6% | +18.9% | +30.9% | +19.6% | −1.0% | +39.5% | +37.6% | −2.6% | +11.6% | +29.8% | +7.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F Ford Motor Company | 6 of 29 | +42.3% | −13.1% | +15.9% | −42.2% | +137% | −3.9% | +29.7% | −34.4% | +8.8% | −8.0% | −5.4% | +3.7% | +22.4% | +22.6% | −35.9% | +68.0% | +336% | −66.0% | −10.2% | −0.3% | −45.2% | −5.9% | +78.6% | −39.0% | −30.1% | −17.7% | −9.2% | +81.2% | +50.6% |
| PNR Pentair plc | 15 of 29 | +4.5% | +40.0% | +64.1% | −37.4% | +39.2% | +17.9% | +23.7% | −18.9% | +28.6% | +16.0% | −23.8% | −13.2% | +60.7% | +50.9% | −6.9% | +15.7% | +40.1% | −30.6% | +12.9% | −7.5% | −19.7% | +93.4% | +35.2% | −3.5% | +54.4% | −35.9% | −1.7% | +12.6% | +13.3% |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | 18 of 29 | +9.8% | −8.0% | +9.9% | −31.9% | +52.6% | +17.7% | +6.6% | −23.9% | +4.8% | +19.4% | +8.8% | +24.0% | +87.0% | +36.3% | +11.4% | +72.2% | +79.9% | −64.4% | +46.5% | +20.9% | +70.6% | +26.2% | +285% | +104% | −13.3% | +8.4% | +55.2% | −53.8% | +23.1% |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | 2 of 3 | −6.5% | +38.9% | +85.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Risk and diversification
How ITW has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were ITW's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents ITW's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all four of ITW's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- The slowest recovery came after ITW fell 47.6% from August to October 1987; it did not regain that peak until February 1990, two years later.
Green means ITW fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | ITW fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 financial crisis | −54.9% | −54.7% | Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | 17 months | Jan 2011 | 22 months |
| No named crash | −47.6% | — | Aug 1987 | Oct 1987 | 2 months | Feb 1990 | 2.3 years |
| Dot-com bust | −38.3% | −27.2% | Jun 1999 | Sep 2001 | 2.3 years | Nov 2003 | 2.2 years |
| Covid crash | −37.9% | −33.4% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 month | Jul 2020 | 4 months |
| No named crash | −36.7% | −8.6% | May 1998 | Sep 1998 | 4 months | Feb 1999 | 5 months |
How did ITW do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far ITW, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- Among its popular alternatives, FAST held up best, falling less than ITW in seven of the ten crashes they both traded through.
- ITW fell further than the S&P 500 in five of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2011 euro debt crisis, when ITW fell 29.0% and the S&P 500 fell 17.9%.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than ITW.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW This pageIllinois Tool Works Inc. | — | −2.9% | −28.0% | −37.9% | −19.3% | −8.4% | −14.0% | −29.0% | −1.1% | −54.9% | −30.8% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 5 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| FAST Fastenal Company | 7 of 10 | −2.7% | −25.5% | −27.8% | −17.4% | −2.7% | −12.7% | −14.0% | −2.1% | −51.8% | −36.4% |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | 4 of 10 | −4.3% | −25.4% | −47.2% | −28.8% | −5.9% | −15.9% | −25.8% | 0.0% | −56.1% | −43.6% |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | 2 of 10 | −4.4% | −21.5% | −42.1% | −23.8% | −5.7% | −28.4% | −33.9% | −2.9% | −73.6% | −34.8% |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 5 of 10 | −3.6% | −16.9% | −32.5% | −25.2% | −2.1% | −20.6% | −18.5% | −1.5% | −35.3% | −55.6% |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 2 of 10 | −6.9% | −39.4% | −32.0% | −26.1% | −9.1% | −24.6% | −31.1% | −3.4% | −49.9% | −35.1% |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | 3 of 10 | −3.7% | −26.4% | −42.0% | −22.1% | −6.7% | −21.9% | −30.3% | −1.2% | −53.3% | −34.9% |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −5.4% | −43.8% | −42.4% | −27.5% | −7.9% | −23.6% | −37.5% | −1.4% | −74.7% | −42.0% |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 1 of 10 | −8.4% | −27.3% | −54.7% | −25.6% | −8.1% | −23.7% | −30.4% | −3.5% | −66.9% | −36.5% |
| ETN Eaton Corporation plc | 2 of 10 | −4.5% | −26.3% | −44.5% | −26.0% | −6.7% | −22.3% | −34.6% | −1.4% | −68.5% | −31.6% |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 3 of 10 | −3.6% | −16.9% | −33.2% | −25.0% | −9.1% | −25.2% | −28.1% | −1.4% | −68.9% | −45.9% |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −6.9% | −29.3% | −47.3% | −26.6% | −5.3% | −53.8% | −49.2% | −3.9% | −81.1% | −57.2% |
| DOV Dover Corporation | 1 of 10 | −5.9% | −35.6% | −45.0% | −25.1% | −6.8% | −20.9% | −32.8% | −1.5% | −58.2% | −54.1% |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | 0 of 10 | −7.1% | −33.4% | −58.5% | −35.3% | −9.4% | −26.6% | −36.7% | −3.6% | −73.1% | −76.8% |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | 2 of 10 | −3.9% | −15.3% | −40.3% | −27.4% | −6.7% | −22.2% | −29.5% | −2.5% | −65.8% | −37.5% |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −4.5% | −60.7% | −55.3% | −29.7% | −6.7% | −18.2% | −31.3% | −4.0% | −58.9% | −41.3% |
| GGG Graco Inc. | 4 of 10 | −3.9% | −27.4% | −30.6% | −20.1% | −8.6% | −16.5% | −35.8% | 0.0% | −64.7% | −24.8% |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 1 of 5 | −8.0% | −34.3% | −49.1% | −34.4% | −7.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | 4 of 10 | −2.0% | −26.1% | −34.3% | −23.8% | −7.9% | −13.1% | −33.3% | −3.3% | −58.3% | −33.9% |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | 1 of 5 | −4.7% | −27.4% | −45.3% | −26.8% | −8.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | 4 of 10 | −1.4% | −22.7% | −42.2% | −22.1% | −6.8% | −14.4% | −25.3% | −1.8% | −62.2% | −65.8% |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | 3 of 6 | −3.8% | −37.9% | −35.9% | −24.2% | −7.2% | −12.9% | — | — | — | — |
| F Ford Motor Company | 1 of 10 | −7.3% | −55.6% | −50.0% | −21.1% | −4.5% | −25.7% | −29.6% | −2.4% | −86.3% | −75.5% |
| PNR Pentair plc | 2 of 10 | −6.4% | −42.9% | −48.7% | −19.9% | −6.4% | −30.9% | −25.8% | −2.9% | −54.8% | −51.7% |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | 2 of 10 | −7.4% | −38.1% | −62.0% | −24.3% | −3.4% | −35.0% | −25.4% | −2.3% | −73.1% | −48.9% |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | 0 of 1 | −3.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
How closely does ITW move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares ITW with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- 13 of the 23 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than ITW's 0.81, led by ETN, WTS and FAST.
- WTS took just 80% of the S&P 500's losses, against 116% for ITW, while still keeping 102% of its gains.
- Over the past 10 years, ITW captured 94% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 116% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.04. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than ITW's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW This pageIllinois Tool Works Inc. | 94% | 116% | 0.81 | 1.04 |
| ETN Eaton Corporation plc | 114% | 80% | 1.43 | 1.16 |
| WTS Watts Water Technologies, Inc. | 102% | 80% | 1.28 | 1.02 |
| FAST Fastenal Company | 106% | 87% | 1.23 | 0.98 |
| GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 113% | 95% | 1.19 | 1.12 |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | 141% | 126% | 1.11 | 1.43 |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | 111% | 101% | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | 141% | 130% | 1.09 | 1.33 |
| GGG Graco Inc. | 90% | 92% | 0.98 | 0.78 |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 118% | 122% | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | 86% | 93% | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| NDSN Nordson Corporation | 102% | 112% | 0.91 | 0.98 |
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 122% | 138% | 0.88 | 1.46 |
| DOV Dover Corporation | 114% | 133% | 0.85 | 1.27 |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | 124% | 153% | 0.81 | 1.39 |
| IEX IDEX Corporation | 97% | 121% | 0.80 | 1.03 |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | 90% | 118% | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| XYL Xylem Inc. | 90% | 123% | 0.73 | 1.03 |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | 88% | 133% | 0.66 | 1.10 |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | 119% | 188% | 0.63 | 1.49 |
| F Ford Motor Company | 105% | 167% | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| PNR Pentair plc | 89% | 148% | 0.60 | 1.11 |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | 100% | 190% | 0.53 | 1.52 |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 101% | 198% | 0.51 | 1.30 |
What diversifies ITW?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with ITW's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing ITW with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in ITW into GLD would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 17% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+7.0% for ITW alone, +9.8% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, DXJ, SMH and GLD have moved largely independently of ITW over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.40 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- MCK made money in seven of the ten calendar years in which ITW lost money.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which ITW lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% ITW and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2022 | 2018 | 2011 | 2008 | 2005 | 2002 | 2000 | 1998 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | +38.4% | 0.41 | −0.4% | −1.0% | −8.5% | −22.1% | −10.0% | −32.7% | −3.7% | −2.9% | −10.6% | −2.6% | 22.8% | +7.0% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.40 | +225% | 1.34 | +32.8% | +29.8% | +6.0% | −19.8% | −16.1% | −20.8% | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | +11.1% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.34 | +323% | 0.97 | +49.2% | +39.1% | −33.5% | −9.1% | +6.8% | −44.7% | +10.8% | −47.0% | — | — | 21.6% | +13.5% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.12 | +126% | 0.96 | +63.7% | +26.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | +9.6% | +4.9% | +17.8% | — | — | — | 19.0% | +9.8% |
| SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.48 | +136% | 0.93 | +26.6% | +45.8% | −10.4% | −0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.5% | +10.2% |
| XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.49 | +177% | 0.93 | +7.9% | +5.6% | +64.4% | −18.2% | +2.8% | −39.0% | +40.1% | −14.8% | +24.4% | — | 21.3% | +10.5% |
| EWT TechnologyiShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | 0.29 | +153% | 0.89 | +28.4% | +16.1% | −28.9% | −9.9% | −21.8% | −45.3% | +4.7% | −24.4% | — | — | 20.3% | +10.5% |
| EDIV InternationalState Street SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF | 0.46 | +69.9% | 0.84 | +16.4% | +12.8% | −15.3% | −6.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | +8.2% |
| PTLC Broad MarketPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF | 0.46 | +57.4% | 0.83 | +5.1% | +24.3% | −8.6% | +1.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | +8.0% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2022 | 2018 | 2011 | 2008 | 2005 | 2002 | 2000 | 1998 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. (this page) | 1.00 | +38.4% | 0.41 | −0.4% | −1.0% | −8.5% | −22.1% | −10.0% | −32.7% | −3.7% | −2.9% | −10.6% | −2.6% | 22.8% | +7.0% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.37 | +479% | 1.55 | +76.3% | +19.0% | +54.1% | −24.5% | +8.1% | −39.6% | +18.7% | −8.3% | +108% | +51.7% | 20.8% | +13.3% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.20 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +220% | +215% | +1.3% | −16.3% | −24.4% | −20.5% | −25.2% | −65.1% | −2.3% | — | 23.5% | +25.7% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.48 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +121% | +107% | +17.0% | +0.8% | −17.0% | −15.2% | +20.1% | −9.4% | −71.1% | −9.5% | 23.9% | +21.3% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.32 | +413% | 1.44 | +44.5% | +23.7% | +51.8% | −28.4% | +11.8% | −40.4% | +64.9% | −27.2% | +61.2% | +46.9% | 20.4% | +12.7% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.36 | +690% | 1.41 | +19.2% | −4.0% | +86.6% | −8.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.4% | +15.2% |
Common questions
What was ITW's worst drawdown?
ITW's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 54.9%, from October 2007 to March 2009. It took 22 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
What were ITW's best and worst years?
Over 29 full calendar years, ITW's best year was 1997, when it returned 51.9%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -32.7%.
Is there a better investment than ITW?
Among ITW's popular alternatives, FAST earned more for the risk it took than ITW over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 30.7%, against 37.9% for ITW. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, PPA (aerospace & defense) earned more than ITW with less volatility over the past 5 years: 16.3% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 6.7% a year at 21.4%.
Is ITW more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. ITW's volatility over the past 5 years was 21.4%, 1.2 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, ITW's return lands within 21.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is ITW's Sharpe ratio?
ITW's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.41, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so ITW earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is ITW with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, ITW's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.66 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against ITW instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a ITW holding.
What are the best alternatives to ITW?
Of the 25 popular alternatives we compared, six outperformed ITW in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: FAST, EMR and NDSN.
Did ITW outperform the S&P 500?
ITW finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 15 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -0.4%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did ITW do in stock market crashes?
ITW fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in one of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in five. The clearest case was the 2011 euro debt crisis, when ITW fell 29.0% and the S&P 500 fell 17.9%.
What diversifies ITW?
These had a low correlation with ITW over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, DXJ (correlation 0.40), SMH (correlation 0.34) and GLD (correlation 0.12); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.37), CLS (correlation 0.20) and FIX (correlation 0.48). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than ITW's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of ITW's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.
More research
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