Relative Intelligence · Pharmaceuticals

How Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on TAK alone. It places TAK (Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where TAK stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: TAK's full trading record, from March 2008 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowTAK has run far ahead of the market, rising 20.3% over the past 3 months against 3.9% for the S&P 500 and 3.2% for the Nasdaq 100. Its pharmaceutical peers were far apart over the past 3 months, from PFE (Pfizer, up 23.8%) to JNJ (Johnson & Johnson, up 4.8%). Consistency ↓
- Stock or market?More than an industry move: TAK rose 20.3% over the past 3 months, against 5.0% for the pharmaceuticals ETF IHE (iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF). The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Last month cut against the tape: TAK rose 8.6% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsOver the past year, TAK rose 48.2% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. By year ↓
- Long termTAK turned $10,000 into $13,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. TAK's 10-year return of 30.4% puts it behind 76% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashThe 2022 bear market took 14.8% off TAK, against 24.5% for the S&P 500. That was more than LLY (Eli Lilly and Company, 11.7%) but less than ABBV (AbbVie, 21.9%). Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationTAK is a real diversifier: a correlation of -0.07 with the S&P 500 over 5 years and -0.06 with the total US market, less closely than 99% of stocks worth at least $300 million. TAK moves far less with the S&P 500 than it used to, with a correlation of -0.07 over the past 5 years against 0.61 in the 5 years before. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Nearby categories and themes
- CAH (Cardinal Health, health care distribution) earned more for the risk it took than TAK over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 46.1%, against 54.4% for TAK.
- Whole market
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only 67 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TAK with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway), BRK-A (Berkshire Hathaway) and KO (Coca-Cola).
How much would $10,000 in TAK have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in TAK over the past 18 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of TAK over the same span and TAK's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
Note: TAK began trading on March 6, 2008, so the chart cannot reach back to the dot-com bust. It covers the most recent 18 years of TAK's record, starting at the end of September 2008.
- $10,000 invested in TAK at the end of September 2008 would have grown to $15,022 by September 2026, less than the $91,104 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- All eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of TAK, and LLY finished highest, at $431,739.
Choose a period
From the end of September 2008 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 1,639 of the 1,883 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TAK; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- LLY$431,739+4,217% total · +23.3% a year
- VRTX$157,291+1,473% total · +16.5% a year
- AMGN$106,552+966% total · +14.0% a year
- GILD$95,727+857% total · +13.4% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$91,104+811% total · +13.1% a year
- MRK$90,246+802% total · +13.0% a year
- XBI$82,076+721% total · +12.4% a year
- JNJ$64,773+548% total · +10.9% a year
- NVS$60,156+502% total · +10.5% a year
- TAK$15,022+50.2% total · +2.3% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 1,824 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TAK; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- LLY$52,411+424% total · +39.3% a year
- ABBV$29,134+191% total · +23.8% a year
- VRTX$28,822+188% total · +23.6% a year
- GILD$25,496+155% total · +20.6% a year
- AMGN$23,160+132% total · +18.3% a year
- MRK$22,538+125% total · +17.6% a year
- NVS$21,146+111% total · +16.2% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- JNJ$18,849+88.5% total · +13.5% a year
- TAK$13,697+37.0% total · +6.5% a year
TAK at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
Note: TAK began trading on March 6, 2008, so every figure here, including its worst decline, covers only the time since then. None of them reflect the dot-com bust.
- TAK's deepest decline since it began trading in 2008 was 54.4%, from January 2018 to March 2020. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over 17 full calendar years, TAK's best was 2017, when it returned 41.3%, and its worst was 2018, when it lost 38.8%. It lost money in nine of those years.
- TAK is 4.4% below its all-time high.
The company
- Market value
- $64B
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- Price history from
- March 2008
Returns
- Past 1 year
- +48.2%total return
- Past 3 years
- +56.1%+16.0% a year
- Past 5 years
- +75.1%+11.9% a year
- Past 10 years
- +30.4%+2.7% a year
- Best calendar year
- +41.3%2017
- Worst calendar year
- −38.8%2018
- Losing years
- 9 of 17full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 19.4%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.68return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −54.4%Jan 2018 to Mar 2020
- From its all-time high
- −4.4%below the peak
TAK against the whole market
Where TAK ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does TAK rank among all stocks?
This section ranks TAK on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how TAK stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- TAK is among the steadier stocks: its price swings rank in the top 3% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top is the calmest.
- TAK's 10-year return ranks in the bottom 24% of the 2,202 stocks worth at least $300 million with 10 years of history.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | TAK | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +48.2% | 585 of 3,287 | top 18% |
| 3-year return | +56.1% | 1,452 of 3,017 | top 48% |
| 5-year return | +75.1% | 856 of 2,893 | top 30% |
| 10-year return | +30.4% | 1,683 of 2,202 | bottom 25% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 19.4% | 78 of 2,893 | top 3% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.68 | 509 of 2,893 | top 18% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −54.4% | 640 of 2,187 | top 29% |
What has beaten TAK on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). TAK sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than TAK with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- Six stocks and 61 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than TAK over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 2% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half TAK's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 17.0% a year at 11.1% volatility, 43% less than TAK's 19.4%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against 0.68 for TAK. SDCI earned the most, 20.6% a year, while still swinging less than TAK (18.4% against 19.4%).
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to TAK; faint dots are 35 more of the 67 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
- 1 with more than 1.6× TAK's volatility is in the table only
Is there a better investment than TAK?
Investments that beat TAK over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among TAK's popular alternatives, LLY earned more for the risk it took than TAK over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 34.5%, against 54.4% for TAK.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, CAH (health care distribution) earned more for the risk it took than TAK over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 46.1%, against 54.4% for TAK.
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only 67 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TAK with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them BRK-B, BRK-A and KO.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat TAK over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks TAK's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than TAK follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than TAK's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× TAK's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than TAK's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with TAK?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| +11.9% | 19.4% | 0.68 | −54.4% | +30.4% | 1.00 | — | |||
| +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | -0.07 | 0.09% | |||
| Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against TAK. 8 of 21 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +40.7% | 32.8% | 1.21 | −34.5% | +1,807% | 0.00 | — | ||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +19.6% | 24.9% | 0.85 | −24.9% | +266% | 0.31 | — | ||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.59 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +16.3% | 24.8% | 0.74 | −43.4% | +241% | 0.19 | — | ||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +26.1% | 23.4% | 1.11 | −45.1% | +603% | 0.25 | — | ||
| Smaller losses in recent crashes | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.41 | — | ||
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 4 shownEverything else in Pharmaceuticals and the categories next to it (Biotechnology, Health Care Distribution, Life Sciences Tools, Medical Devices), plus TAK's specific themes. 4 of 104 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| On the frontierHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.14 | — | ||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +38.7% | 25.0% | 1.44 | −38.1% | +586% | 0.13 | — | ||
RPRXRoyalty Pharma plc · Pharmaceuticals | Higher return in most periods | +13.3% | 23.8% | 0.65 | −49.7% | — | 0.11 | — | |
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +24.2% | 22.8% | 1.07 | −32.4% | +406% | 0.25 | — | ||
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 257 of 3,508 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
VLUEiShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +15.9% | 18.4% | 0.90 | −39.5% | +286% | 0.05 | 0.15% | |
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.19 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.37 | — | ||
LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.40 | 0.40% | |
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +22.4% | 22.3% | 1.02 | −46.3% | +347% | 0.21 | — | ||
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity | On the frontierHigher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.09 | 0.48% | |
| Similar return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +12.1% | 13.7% | 0.90 | −36.8% | +235% | 0.18 | 0.03% | ||
| Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes | +21.3% | 25.6% | 0.89 | −30.3% | +816% | 0.16 | — | ||
What these numbers mean for TAK
- Annual return
- TAK returned 11.9% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $17,500. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- TAK's volatility over the past 5 years was 19.4%, 1.1 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TAK's return lands within 19.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- TAK's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.68, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so TAK earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- TAK's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 54.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 54.4% fall takes a 119% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, TAK's monthly returns had a correlation of -0.07 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are close to unrelated, or move in opposite directions, so it can steady a stock portfolio. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TAK instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TAK holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 67 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than TAK with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 40 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with TAK | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VLUEiShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +15.9% | 18.4% | 0.90 | −39.5% | +286% | 0.05 | 0.15% |
| 2 | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.19 | — | |
| 3 | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.37 | — | |
| 4 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.40 | 0.40% |
| 5 | Whole market | +14.7% | 16.8% | 0.91 | −37.0% | +204% | 0.37 | — | |
| 6 | Whole market | +14.7% | 17.5% | 0.87 | −34.7% | — | -0.08 | 0.26% | |
| 7 | SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +20.6% | 18.4% | 1.12 | −45.7% | — | 0.12 | 0.80% |
| 8 | EFViShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 15.9% | 0.88 | −43.2% | +157% | 0.42 | 0.31% |
| 9 | FNDXSchwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +13.5% | 14.9% | 0.93 | −37.7% | +291% | 0.12 | 0.25% |
| 10 | ATOAtmos Energy Corporation · Gas Utilities | Whole market | +14.9% | 18.4% | 0.85 | −32.9% | +194% | 0.20 | — |
| 11 | FNDFSchwab Fundamental International Large Company Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 16.3% | 0.87 | −40.2% | +194% | 0.36 | 0.25% |
| 12 | HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +12.9% | 13.0% | 1.00 | −37.0% | +172% | 0.38 | 0.08% |
| 13 | AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.9% | 17.4% | 0.84 | −43.0% | — | 0.36 | 0.36% |
| 14 | FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +13.2% | 14.6% | 0.92 | −40.2% | +253% | 0.10 | 0.15% |
| 15 | DBEFXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.1% | 13.8% | 0.96 | −32.5% | +206% | 0.15 | 0.35% |
| 16 | IOOiShares Global 100 ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +15.7% | 17.2% | 0.94 | −31.4% | +361% | -0.06 | 0.40% |
| 17 | MGCVanguard Morningstar Mega Cap ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.4% | 0.81 | −33.1% | +353% | -0.10 | 0.05% |
| 18 | FDLFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +13.9% | 14.4% | 0.98 | −41.4% | +199% | 0.35 | 0.43% |
| 19 | JQUAJPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 15.7% | 0.89 | −32.9% | — | 0.02 | 0.12% |
| 20 | EMLPFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund · Energy Infrastructure | Whole market | +14.9% | 14.5% | 1.04 | −43.6% | +150% | 0.15 | 0.95% |
| 21 | USMCPrincipal U.S. Mega-Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.1% | 16.4% | 0.89 | −30.0% | — | -0.05 | 0.12% |
| 22 | GCOWPacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF · International | Whole market | +14.1% | 13.6% | 1.04 | −37.6% | +168% | 0.51 | 0.60% |
| 23 | IDMOInvesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.3% | 18.2% | 0.78 | −31.3% | +229% | 0.22 | 0.25% |
| 24 | FTGCFirst Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy Fund · Alternatives | Whole market | +12.9% | 15.6% | 0.86 | −35.9% | +139% | 0.15 | 0.98% |
| 25 | WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.0% | 0.83 | −42.2% | +303% | 0.13 | 0.12% |
| 26 | DIVIFranklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF · International | Whole market | +13.4% | 15.5% | 0.89 | −27.7% | +184% | 0.36 | 0.09% |
| 27 | DIVBiShares Core Dividend ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +13.9% | 15.4% | 0.93 | −36.9% | — | 0.15 | 0.05% |
| 28 | PWVInvesco Large Cap Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.5% | 14.2% | 0.97 | −37.6% | +223% | 0.19 | 0.55% |
| 29 | FFLCFidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +15.7% | 16.8% | 0.95 | −19.7% | — | -0.03 | 0.38% |
| 30 | AUSFGlobal X - Adaptive U.S. Factor ETF · International | Whole market | +13.2% | 13.6% | 0.99 | −44.2% | — | 0.23 | 0.27% |
| 31 | VFMFVanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.3% | 17.6% | 0.85 | −41.3% | — | 0.11 | 0.18% |
| 32 | HLALWahed FTSE USA Shariah ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.0% | 18.0% | 0.82 | −33.6% | — | -0.11 | 0.50% |
| 33 | DTHWisdomTree International High Dividend Fund · International | Whole market | +13.0% | 15.1% | 0.89 | −40.8% | +131% | 0.45 | 0.58% |
| 34 | EWJViShares MSCI Japan Value ETF · International | Whole market | +14.9% | 18.2% | 0.86 | −30.1% | — | 0.53 | 0.15% |
| 35 | DGTState Street SPDR Global Dow ETF · International | Whole market | +13.8% | 15.1% | 0.94 | −34.4% | +261% | 0.23 | 0.50% |
| 36 | FYLDCambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +13.1% | 16.0% | 0.85 | −44.6% | +203% | 0.42 | 0.59% |
| 37 | IDOGALPS International Sector Dividend Dogs ETF · International | Whole market | +14.1% | 15.6% | 0.93 | −37.3% | +180% | 0.42 | 0.50% |
| 38 | Whole market | +16.4% | 17.1% | 0.98 | −58.1% | +178% | 0.16 | — | |
| 39 | MLPAGlobal X - MLP ETF · Energy | Whole market | +15.2% | 17.2% | 0.91 | −74.3% | +80.0% | 0.13 | 0.77% |
| 40 | TPYPTortoise North American Pipeline ETF · Energy | Whole market | +16.9% | 17.3% | 0.99 | −51.9% | +184% | 0.24 | 0.40% |
TAK against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against TAK, compared period by period and year by year.
How do TAK's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at TAK, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- Only JNJ was both more rewarding and calmer than TAK over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- 12 of the 21 popular alternatives earned less than TAK over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, TAK returned 11.8% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (19.4% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than TAK with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | +40.7% | 32.8% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | +26.1% | 23.4% |
| ARGX argenx SE | +24.1% | 39.9% |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | +22.8% | 24.9% |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | +22.6% | 29.1% |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | +19.6% | 24.9% |
| NVS Novartis AG | +17.2% | 20.7% |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | +16.3% | 24.8% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +12.7% | 17.9% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| TAK This pageTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | +11.8% | 19.4% |
| GSK GSK plc | +9.5% | 24.5% |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | +8.7% | 35.7% |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | +7.7% | 31.1% |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | +5.5% | 24.9% |
| XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | +4.6% | 32.5% |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | +2.5% | 50.9% |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | +1.3% | 34.7% |
| SNY Sanofi | +0.6% | 25.3% |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | −1.7% | 25.4% |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | −1.8% | 34.7% |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | −4.0% | 39.1% |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | −5.6% | 33.0% |
Has TAK consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares TAK with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than TAK helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- Three of the 21 popular alternatives, AMGN, LLY and MRK, outperformed TAK in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- AMGN outperformed TAK in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- LLY, ABBV and GILD earned more for the risk they took than TAK (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than TAK over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (this page) | — | +8.6% | +20.3% | +16.9% | +33.6% | +48.2% | +56.1% | +75.1% | +30.4% | 19.4% | 0.68 | −54.4% | — | $64B | — |
| AMGN QualifiedAmgen Inc. | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +11.6% | +21.2% | +27.0% | +36.7% | +48.7% | +72.2% | +145% | +266% | 24.9% | 0.85 | −24.9% | — | $237B | — |
| LLY QualifiedEli Lilly and Company | 3/5 short3/3 long | +10.2% | +12.1% | +40.0% | +19.4% | +59.7% | +124% | +451% | +1,807% | 32.8% | 1.21 | −34.5% | — | $1.2T | — |
| MRK QualifiedMerck & Co., Inc. | 3/5 short3/3 long | −0.8% | +19.9% | +28.3% | +42.2% | +76.8% | +58.3% | +113% | +241% | 24.8% | 0.74 | −43.4% | — | $366B | — |
| ABBV Drug Manufacturers - GeneralAbbVie Inc. | 2/5 short3/3 long | +9.9% | +14.8% | +43.8% | +29.8% | +28.3% | +118% | +218% | +603% | 23.4% | 1.11 | −45.1% | — | $511B | — |
| NVS Drug Manufacturers - GeneralNovartis AG | 0/5 short3/3 long | +9.0% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +13.1% | +18.8% | +75.9% | +121% | +226% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | — | $292B | — |
| GILD Drug Manufacturers - GeneralGilead Sciences, Inc. | 0/5 short3/3 long | +4.0% | +18.2% | +16.6% | +31.0% | +30.3% | +121% | +180% | +200% | 24.9% | 0.95 | −30.5% | — | $194B | — |
| JNJ Drug Manufacturers - GeneralJohnson & Johnson | 0/5 short3/3 long | −3.8% | +4.8% | +13.6% | +27.1% | +36.9% | +84.6% | +82.1% | +196% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | — | $625B | — |
| VRTX BiotechnologyVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 0/5 short2/3 long | +0.8% | +7.1% | +17.2% | +13.8% | +22.8% | +42.2% | +177% | +521% | 29.1% | 0.85 | −41.6% | — | $130B | — |
| XBI HealthcareState Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 0/5 short2/3 long | −3.2% | +1.5% | +11.3% | +26.2% | +39.7% | +130% | +25.1% | +159% | 32.5% | 0.30 | −63.9% | 0.35% | $10B | — |
| GSK Drug Manufacturers - GeneralGSK plc | 0/5 short2/3 long | −0.9% | +2.1% | −10.1% | +4.7% | +18.9% | +60.0% | +57.2% | +95.1% | 24.5% | 0.49 | −37.6% | — | $102B | — |
| ARGX Biotechnologyargenx SE | 0/5 short2/3 long | −12.0% | +2.8% | +4.2% | +3.5% | +2.4% | +83.1% | +194% | — | 39.9% | 0.74 | −38.2% | — | $54B | — |
| IQV Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchIQVIA Holdings Inc. | 2/5 short1/3 long | −0.8% | +31.4% | +51.5% | +18.8% | +26.3% | +45.3% | +6.5% | +260% | 34.7% | 0.21 | −51.5% | — | $44B | — |
| PFE Drug Manufacturers - GeneralPfizer Inc. | 1/5 short1/3 long | +8.5% | +23.8% | +13.2% | +25.7% | +30.5% | +19.2% | −8.3% | +55.0% | 25.4% | 0.06 | −58.9% | — | $172B | — |
| ALNY BiotechnologyAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0/5 short1/3 long | −5.6% | −15.4% | −25.8% | −42.3% | −53.0% | +42.6% | +13.2% | +514% | 50.9% | 0.29 | −58.2% | — | $31B | — |
| AZN Drug Manufacturers - GeneralAstraZeneca PLC | 0/5 short1/3 long | +0.4% | +3.3% | −15.3% | −7.0% | +1.8% | +38.8% | +52.1% | +257% | 35.7% | 0.41 | −28.7% | — | $262B | — |
| NVO Drug Manufacturers - GeneralNovo Nordisk A/S | 0/5 short1/3 long | −1.1% | −20.0% | −1.5% | −23.9% | −28.5% | −57.0% | −18.5% | +134% | 39.1% | 0.09 | −75.2% | — | $174B | — |
| REGN BiotechnologyRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0/5 short1/3 long | +1.2% | +20.3% | +8.0% | +4.4% | +40.7% | +0.8% | +44.9% | +120% | 31.1% | 0.40 | −59.7% | — | $83B | — |
| BMY Drug Manufacturers - GeneralBristol-Myers Squibb Company | 0/5 short1/3 long | −0.5% | +3.6% | +6.6% | +19.1% | +47.8% | +25.8% | +30.6% | +74.8% | 24.9% | 0.34 | −47.7% | — | $126B | — |
| SNY Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSanofi | 0/5 short1/3 long | −2.6% | −5.9% | −10.3% | −10.7% | −13.4% | −10.0% | +3.0% | +61.5% | 25.3% | 0.15 | −33.5% | — | $99B | — |
| BIIB Drug Manufacturers - GeneralBiogen Inc. | 5/5 short0/3 long | +11.0% | +21.6% | +32.6% | +36.7% | +65.8% | −5.6% | −8.8% | −18.9% | 34.7% | 0.11 | −72.7% | — | $36B | — |
| BMRN BiotechnologyBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −11.9% | −4.5% | +2.8% | −5.1% | +6.3% | −31.3% | −24.9% | −33.0% | 33.0% | -0.01 | −62.1% | — | $11B | — |
How did TAK do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2009, along with where TAK ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with TAK and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
Note: TAK began trading on March 6, 2008, so the table starts with 2009, its first full calendar year, and cannot show how it fared during the dot-com bust.
- Among its popular alternatives, ARGX came out ahead of TAK most often, in seven of the eight years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, TAK finished in the top quarter in three of 17 years and in the bottom quarter in eight. In 2025, it ranked 12 of 22.
- TAK finished ahead of the S&P 500 in five of its 17 full calendar years.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of TAK; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places TAK among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of TAK | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAK This pageTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | — | +22.7% | −3.2% | −4.8% | +20.1% | −21.6% | −3.0% | +22.1% | −38.8% | +41.3% | −14.0% | +24.4% | −6.5% | +7.4% | +5.8% | −5.0% | +21.2% | −16.1% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 3 of 17 | 12 of 22 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 22 | 10 of 22 | 22 of 22 | 18 of 22 | 13 of 22 | 21 of 22 | 6 of 21 | 13 of 21 | 4 of 21 | 19 of 21 | 19 of 20 | 17 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 5 of 19 | 18 of 19 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 12 of 17 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 12 of 17 | +29.7% | −6.8% | +13.5% | +20.4% | +0.9% | −2.0% | +27.6% | +15.2% | +22.3% | −7.6% | +4.0% | +42.3% | +34.8% | +36.8% | +18.2% | −3.0% | −2.0% |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 13 of 17 | +40.3% | +33.3% | +60.9% | +34.3% | +66.1% | +31.0% | +16.2% | +40.5% | +17.8% | −10.4% | +25.4% | +39.8% | +7.3% | +24.2% | +25.2% | +3.6% | −6.2% |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 10 of 17 | +9.8% | −6.3% | +1.0% | +49.4% | +1.8% | −7.2% | +22.3% | +40.0% | −1.5% | +15.0% | −3.9% | +16.9% | +26.9% | +13.1% | +9.6% | +2.9% | +26.7% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 11 of 13 | +33.1% | +18.9% | −0.2% | +24.0% | +32.4% | +27.7% | +1.5% | −1.0% | +60.1% | +9.8% | −6.5% | +27.9% | +60.7% | — | — | — | — |
| NVS Novartis AG | 13 of 17 | +46.0% | −0.5% | +21.1% | +6.6% | −5.0% | +2.2% | +29.1% | +6.2% | +19.8% | −11.8% | −4.3% | +19.4% | +32.2% | +16.1% | +1.5% | +12.6% | +14.6% |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 11 of 17 | +36.6% | +18.7% | −2.0% | +23.6% | +29.9% | −6.7% | +7.9% | −9.9% | +3.0% | −27.6% | +8.6% | +25.5% | +105% | +79.5% | +12.9% | −16.3% | −15.4% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 10 of 17 | +47.5% | −4.8% | −8.6% | +6.0% | +11.4% | +10.8% | +16.2% | −5.1% | +24.4% | +15.3% | +1.2% | +17.3% | +34.6% | +10.8% | +9.9% | −0.6% | +11.3% |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 12 of 17 | +12.6% | −1.0% | +40.9% | +31.5% | −7.1% | +7.9% | +32.1% | +10.6% | +103% | −41.4% | +5.9% | +59.9% | +77.3% | +26.2% | −5.2% | −18.3% | +41.0% |
| XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 13 of 17 | +35.9% | +1.0% | +7.6% | −25.9% | −20.4% | +48.3% | +32.6% | −15.3% | +43.8% | −15.4% | +13.6% | +45.0% | +48.4% | +32.7% | +5.2% | +17.6% | +0.4% |
| GSK GSK plc | 9 of 17 | +51.3% | −5.2% | +9.8% | −16.8% | +27.1% | −17.7% | +29.2% | +13.8% | −3.0% | +2.1% | −0.3% | −15.7% | +28.9% | +0.6% | +22.7% | −2.1% | +19.2% |
| ARGX argenx SE | 7 of 8 | +36.7% | +61.7% | +0.4% | +8.2% | +19.1% | +83.2% | +67.1% | +52.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | 7 of 12 | +14.7% | −15.1% | +12.9% | −27.4% | +57.5% | +16.0% | +33.0% | +18.7% | +28.7% | +10.8% | +16.6% | +27.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 10 of 17 | +0.6% | −2.2% | −41.3% | −10.4% | +66.7% | +3.4% | −6.7% | +25.1% | +16.1% | +4.4% | +7.3% | +5.4% | +26.5% | +20.6% | +28.8% | +0.6% | +8.1% |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 10 of 17 | +69.0% | +22.9% | −19.5% | +40.1% | +30.5% | +12.8% | +58.0% | −42.6% | +239% | −60.2% | −2.9% | +50.8% | +252% | +124% | −17.3% | −44.0% | −28.7% |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | 12 of 17 | +38.0% | −1.2% | +0.8% | +20.4% | +17.9% | +2.9% | +37.4% | +13.9% | +35.3% | −16.7% | +0.1% | +24.6% | +32.0% | +8.6% | +6.0% | +3.5% | +20.4% |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 14 of 17 | −39.2% | −15.9% | +54.8% | +22.6% | +63.5% | +23.3% | +28.7% | −11.8% | +54.3% | −36.6% | +39.3% | +16.7% | +15.3% | +44.0% | +4.1% | +79.3% | +27.2% |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 11 of 17 | +9.0% | −18.9% | +21.7% | +14.2% | +30.7% | +28.7% | +0.5% | −0.7% | +2.4% | −32.4% | +32.3% | +49.0% | +60.9% | +209% | +68.8% | +35.8% | +31.7% |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 10 of 17 | +0.1% | +15.8% | −26.1% | +19.0% | +2.9% | +0.4% | +27.7% | −12.9% | +7.7% | −13.5% | +19.3% | +14.2% | +70.0% | −3.8% | +39.4% | +8.8% | +14.8% |
| SNY Sanofi | 10 of 17 | +4.9% | +1.1% | +6.5% | +0.5% | +7.0% | +0.4% | +20.5% | +6.0% | +9.9% | −1.2% | −3.4% | −11.9% | +17.1% | +36.0% | +18.8% | −13.4% | +28.7% |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | 9 of 17 | +15.1% | −40.9% | −6.6% | +15.4% | −2.0% | −17.5% | −1.4% | −5.5% | +12.3% | −7.4% | −9.8% | +21.4% | +91.0% | +33.0% | +64.1% | +25.3% | +12.3% |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 9 of 17 | −9.6% | −31.8% | −6.8% | +17.1% | +0.8% | +3.7% | −0.7% | −4.5% | +7.6% | −20.9% | +15.9% | +28.5% | +43.0% | +43.1% | +27.7% | +43.2% | +5.7% |
Risk and diversification
How TAK has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were TAK's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents TAK's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 2008, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
Note: TAK began trading on March 6, 2008, so this list cannot include the dot-com bust. The crash tests on this page show how older funds and the S&P 500 fared through those years.
- In four of TAK's five worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: TAK fell 22.0% from March 2015 to December 2016, while the S&P 500 rose 12.5%.
- The slowest recovery came after TAK fell 46.7% from May 2008 to March 2009; it did not regain that peak until January 2013, four years later.
Green means TAK fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | TAK fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late-2018 sell-off | −54.4% | −13.1% | Jan 2018 | Mar 2020 | 2.2 years | Not yet | — |
| 2008 financial crisis | −46.7% | −50.5% | May 2008 | Mar 2009 | 10 months | Jan 2013 | 3.8 years |
| 2015 China and oil sell-off | −22.0% | +12.5% | Mar 2015 | Dec 2016 | 21 months | May 2017 | 5 months |
| No named crash | −21.7% | +28.6% | Apr 2013 | Dec 2014 | 20 months | Mar 2015 | 3 months |
| No named crash | −8.9% | +0.4% | Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 month | Apr 2013 | Under a month |
How did TAK do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far TAK, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
Note: TAK began trading on March 6, 2008, so its row reads "Not yet trading" for the dot-com bust or the 2008 financial crisis. The older alternatives and the S&P 500 show how those crashes played out.
- Among its popular alternatives, JNJ held up best, falling less than TAK in five of the eight crashes they both traded through.
- TAK began trading after the 2008 financial crisis, but 18 of its popular alternatives lived through it. The mildest fall among them was AMGN's 31.3%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500.
- TAK fell less than the S&P 500 in four of the eight crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2011 euro debt crisis, when TAK fell 5.6% and the S&P 500 fell 17.9%.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than TAK.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAK This pageTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | — | −0.6% | −14.8% | −31.5% | −27.9% | −6.5% | −17.0% | −5.6% | −3.7% | Not yet trading | Not yet trading |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 3 of 8 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 4 of 8 | −1.2% | −11.9% | −18.3% | −14.3% | −7.4% | −22.1% | −12.6% | −0.5% | −31.3% | −60.2% |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 4 of 8 | −0.6% | −11.7% | −16.9% | −10.2% | −8.6% | −19.6% | −10.9% | 0.0% | −50.0% | −54.3% |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 4 of 8 | −2.4% | −10.8% | −19.3% | −9.7% | −6.6% | −18.2% | −17.4% | −2.3% | −63.3% | −57.5% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 2 of 6 | −1.5% | −21.9% | −32.1% | −18.1% | −5.8% | −29.8% | — | — | — | — |
| NVS Novartis AG | 3 of 8 | −1.1% | −20.4% | −25.5% | −9.9% | −6.6% | −30.1% | −14.5% | −2.6% | −41.7% | −25.7% |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 4 of 8 | −1.6% | −20.0% | −13.7% | −22.7% | −5.5% | −28.7% | −18.2% | −2.1% | −34.3% | −53.6% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 5 of 8 | −1.1% | −12.7% | −25.4% | −16.9% | −8.2% | −9.0% | −9.8% | −0.1% | −34.4% | −35.9% |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 4 of 8 | 0.0% | −19.2% | −19.4% | −21.2% | −8.8% | −43.7% | −23.9% | −2.7% | −59.9% | −86.7% |
| XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 1 of 8 | −6.9% | −43.6% | −32.9% | −32.5% | −5.5% | −42.6% | −26.7% | −4.1% | −37.5% | — |
| GSK GSK plc | 5 of 8 | −0.3% | −37.6% | −26.5% | −11.5% | −4.3% | −15.7% | −12.4% | −2.0% | −46.6% | −45.1% |
| ARGX argenx SE | 3 of 5 | 0.0% | −26.0% | −32.8% | −19.8% | −1.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | 2 of 6 | −6.8% | −35.9% | −48.9% | −19.2% | −5.3% | −28.7% | — | — | — | — |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 3 of 8 | −1.8% | −24.6% | −21.8% | −12.3% | −8.1% | −18.2% | −16.1% | −1.8% | −49.8% | −46.0% |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2 of 8 | −4.1% | −28.9% | −30.0% | −33.7% | −6.9% | −48.9% | −39.3% | −1.5% | −58.6% | — |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | 3 of 8 | −0.5% | −25.7% | −22.6% | −11.4% | −6.4% | −18.0% | −16.4% | −1.1% | −37.4% | −43.5% |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 4 of 8 | −1.1% | −21.4% | −23.7% | −13.8% | −3.9% | −20.8% | −23.1% | −1.7% | −40.9% | −51.0% |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 2 of 8 | −0.2% | −25.8% | −12.7% | −17.3% | −7.3% | −37.7% | −23.2% | −7.2% | −49.9% | −71.6% |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 5 of 8 | −2.3% | −16.0% | −29.4% | −22.9% | −4.1% | −16.3% | −10.5% | 0.0% | −39.2% | −69.5% |
| SNY Sanofi | 3 of 8 | −0.5% | −33.5% | −25.2% | −9.0% | −9.8% | −30.2% | −20.7% | −2.8% | −46.6% | — |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | 3 of 8 | −2.5% | −22.4% | −21.2% | −21.7% | −9.3% | −24.6% | −19.4% | −0.6% | −52.7% | −59.8% |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 2 of 8 | −4.5% | −22.9% | −26.3% | −24.4% | −11.6% | −53.6% | −23.1% | −4.1% | −74.9% | −89.7% |
How closely does TAK move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares TAK with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Over the past 10 years, TAK captured 34% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 58% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.44. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
- 18 of the 20 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than TAK's 0.58, led by LLY, VRTX and ABBV.
- LLY took just 6% of the S&P 500's losses, against 58% for TAK, while still keeping 101% of its gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than TAK's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAK This pageTakeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | 34% | 58% | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 101% | 6% | 15.73 | 0.37 |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 87% | 50% | 1.75 | 0.46 |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 92% | 57% | 1.62 | 0.54 |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | 60% | 39% | 1.52 | 0.39 |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 52% | 36% | 1.44 | 0.35 |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 64% | 46% | 1.39 | 0.30 |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 64% | 53% | 1.20 | 0.46 |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 74% | 64% | 1.16 | 0.54 |
| NVS Novartis AG | 69% | 64% | 1.08 | 0.49 |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 92% | 93% | 0.99 | 0.73 |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 55% | 66% | 0.84 | 0.19 |
| GSK GSK plc | 51% | 61% | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 75% | 94% | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. | 128% | 167% | 0.77 | 1.31 |
| XBI State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | 93% | 122% | 0.76 | 1.01 |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 55% | 75% | 0.73 | 0.41 |
| SNY Sanofi | 53% | 74% | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 52% | 81% | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| BIIB Biogen Inc. | 35% | 91% | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 20% | 70% | 0.29 | 0.38 |
What diversifies TAK?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with TAK's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing TAK with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in TAK into SPMO would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 21% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+6.5% for TAK alone, +10.2% for the mix).
- SMH made money in eight of the nine calendar years in which TAK lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of TAK over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.40 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which TAK lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% TAK and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 | 2020 | 2018 | 2016 | 2014 | 2011 | 2009 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (this page) | 1.00 | +75.1% | 0.68 | −3.2% | −4.8% | −21.6% | −3.0% | −38.8% | −14.0% | −6.5% | −5.0% | −16.1% | 19.7% | +6.5% |
| LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.40 | +119% | 1.48 | +15.9% | +17.4% | +17.8% | −9.0% | −5.2% | — | — | — | — | 16.6% | +8.8% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.09 | +225% | 1.34 | +29.8% | +42.0% | +18.0% | +3.9% | −19.8% | +1.1% | +8.1% | −16.1% | +2.0% | 16.2% | +10.8% |
| EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.15 | +101% | 1.04 | +33.4% | +8.0% | +23.1% | −13.4% | −8.7% | +29.8% | +23.8% | — | — | 16.4% | +8.7% |
| HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.38 | +83.3% | 1.00 | +14.1% | +1.8% | +19.6% | −6.5% | −3.0% | +15.9% | +12.6% | — | — | 17.0% | +7.9% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | -0.13 | +323% | 0.97 | +39.1% | +73.4% | +42.1% | +55.5% | −9.1% | +35.6% | +30.2% | +6.8% | +60.5% | 16.4% | +13.7% |
| DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.15 | +85.0% | 0.96 | +13.4% | +20.1% | +19.6% | +2.1% | −9.5% | +6.3% | +3.4% | — | — | 16.2% | +8.3% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.30 | +126% | 0.96 | +26.7% | +12.7% | −4.2% | +24.8% | −1.9% | +8.0% | −2.2% | +9.6% | +24.0% | 17.1% | +9.2% |
| SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | -0.16 | +136% | 0.93 | +45.8% | +17.6% | +22.7% | +28.2% | −0.9% | +7.4% | — | — | — | 15.6% | +10.2% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 | 2020 | 2018 | 2016 | 2014 | 2011 | 2009 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (this page) | 1.00 | +75.1% | 0.68 | −3.2% | −4.8% | −21.6% | −3.0% | −38.8% | −14.0% | −6.5% | −5.0% | −16.1% | 19.7% | +6.5% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.14 | +479% | 1.55 | +19.0% | +34.1% | −0.4% | +10.1% | −24.5% | −17.5% | +23.0% | +8.1% | −4.4% | 17.3% | +13.0% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | -0.33 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +215% | +160% | +37.9% | −2.4% | −16.3% | +7.4% | +12.9% | −24.4% | +105% | 16.2% | +26.3% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | -0.28 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +107% | +79.6% | +89.0% | +6.7% | +0.8% | +18.3% | −10.4% | −17.0% | +17.8% | 15.8% | +22.1% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.13 | +413% | 1.44 | +23.7% | +24.1% | +44.2% | +27.1% | −28.4% | −28.3% | +29.3% | +11.8% | +62.9% | 17.1% | +12.4% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.18 | +690% | 1.41 | −4.0% | +30.4% | +61.0% | −27.4% | −8.2% | +0.7% | +0.4% | — | — | 18.1% | +14.9% |
Common questions
What was TAK's worst drawdown?
TAK's deepest decline since it began trading in 2008 was 54.4%, from January 2018 to March 2020. It has not yet climbed back to that peak. Because TAK launched in March 2008, that record does not include the dot-com bust.
What were TAK's best and worst years?
Over 17 full calendar years, TAK's best year was 2017, when it returned 41.3%. Its worst was 2018, with a return of -38.8%.
Is there a better investment than TAK?
Among TAK's popular alternatives, LLY earned more for the risk it took than TAK over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 34.5%, against 54.4% for TAK. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, CAH (health care distribution) earned more for the risk it took than TAK over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 46.1%, against 54.4% for TAK.
Is TAK more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. TAK's volatility over the past 5 years was 19.4%, 1.1 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TAK's return lands within 19.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is TAK's Sharpe ratio?
TAK's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.68, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so TAK earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is TAK with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, TAK's monthly returns had a correlation of -0.07 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are close to unrelated, or move in opposite directions, so it can steady a stock portfolio. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TAK instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TAK holding.
What are the best alternatives to TAK?
Of the 21 popular alternatives we compared, three outperformed TAK in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: AMGN, LLY and MRK.
Did TAK outperform the S&P 500?
TAK finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in five of 17 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +22.7%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did TAK do in stock market crashes?
TAK fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in four of the eight major crashes it has traded through, and further in three. The clearest case was the 2011 euro debt crisis, when TAK fell 5.6% and the S&P 500 fell 17.9%.
What diversifies TAK?
These had a low correlation with TAK over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.40), DXJ (correlation 0.09) and EMLP (correlation 0.15); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.14), CLS (correlation -0.33) and FIX (correlation -0.28). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than TAK's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of TAK's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.