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Relative Intelligence · Property & Casualty Insurance

How Progressive (PGR) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on PGR alone. It places PGR (The Progressive Corporation) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where PGR stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: PGR's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against PGR →Chart PGR vs. 24 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in PGR have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in PGR over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of PGR over the same span and PGR's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Choose a period

From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 120 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of PGR; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$100,000$1M199720022007201220172022$10,000$100,000$1M19972004201120182025
  • CPRT$1M+14,760% total · +18.8% a year
  • COR$574,137+5,641% total · +15.0% a year
  • AJG$566,042+5,560% total · +14.9% a year
  • WMB$472,016+4,620% total · +14.2% a year
  • WELL$467,035+4,570% total · +14.2% a year
  • PGR$454,424+4,444% total · +14.1% a year
  • TRV$178,972+1,690% total · +10.5% a year
  • BRK-B$166,530+1,565% total · +10.2% a year
  • AFG$153,838+1,438% total · +9.9% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
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From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 476 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of PGR; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000202120222023202420252026$0$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000202120222023202420252026
  • UNM$40,709+307% total · +32.4% a year
  • DXJ$32,976+230% total · +27.0% a year
  • WELL$31,492+215% total · +25.8% a year
  • ABBV$29,134+191% total · +23.8% a year
  • MFC$28,001+180% total · +22.9% a year
  • TRV$25,788+158% total · +20.9% a year
  • PGR$25,636+156% total · +20.7% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
  • BRK-B$18,244+82.4% total · +12.8% a year
  • AFG$15,796+58.0% total · +9.6% a year
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PGR at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

The company

Market value
$129B
Industry
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Price history from
October 1986

Returns

Past 1 year
+7.7%total return
Past 3 years
+56.8%+16.2% a year
Past 5 years
+162%+21.3% a year
Past 10 years
+816%+24.8% a year
Best calendar year
+78.3%1997
Worst calendar year
−56.6%1999
Losing years
6 of 29full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
25.6%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
0.89return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−71.0%Jan 1999 to Mar 2000
From its all-time high
−18.7%below the peak

PGR against the whole market

Where PGR ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does PGR rank among all stocks?

This section ranks PGR on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how PGR stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasurePGRRankStanding
1-year return+7.7%1,672 of 3,287bottom 50%
3-year return+56.8%1,446 of 3,017top 48%
5-year return+162%406 of 2,893top 14%
10-year return+816%150 of 2,202top 7%
Volatility, 5 years25.6%375 of 2,893top 13%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years0.89185 of 2,893top 6%
Worst decline, past 10 years−30.3%23 of 2,187top 1%

What has beaten PGR on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). PGR sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than PGR with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to PGR; faint dots are 3 more of the 8 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

16.0%18.0%20.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%28.0%30.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than PGRMPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%WMB: +24.6% a year, volatility 24.0%COR: +24.2% a year, volatility 22.8%PGR: +21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%TRV: +22.4% a year, volatility 22.3%MFC: +22.6% a year, volatility 24.0%UNM: +30.6% a year, volatility 29.3%ABBV: +26.1% a year, volatility 23.4%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%WELL: +26.0% a year, volatility 23.8%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%XOM: +27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%MCK: +38.7% a year, volatility 25.0%DTM: +24.5% a year, volatility 25.2%SDCI: +20.6% a year, volatility 18.4%PGRSPY (S&P 500)TRVMFCUNMABBVDXJCAHXOMMCKDTMSDCI15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than PGRMPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%WMB: +24.6% a year, volatility 24.0%COR: +24.2% a year, volatility 22.8%PGR: +21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%TRV: +22.4% a year, volatility 22.3%MFC: +22.6% a year, volatility 24.0%UNM: +30.6% a year, volatility 29.3%ABBV: +26.1% a year, volatility 23.4%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%WELL: +26.0% a year, volatility 23.8%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%XOM: +27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%MCK: +38.7% a year, volatility 25.0%DTM: +24.5% a year, volatility 25.2%SDCI: +20.6% a year, volatility 18.4%PGRSPY (S&P 500)TRVMFCUNMABBVDXJWELLCAHXOMMCKDTMSDCI
  • Popular alternatives
  • Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
  • The whole market
  • Others in the green region

Is there a better investment than PGR?

Investments that beat PGR over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat PGR over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks PGR's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than PGR follows the table.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than PGR's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× PGR's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than PGR's.

Screen the whole market against PGR for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 12 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years10Y returntotalCorr. with PGR?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
PGRThe Progressive Corporation · this page
+21.3%25.6%0.89−30.3%+816%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+321%0.160.09%
Popular alternativesbest 1 shownThe investments people most often weigh against PGR. 1 of 24 passed at least one test.
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. · Property & Casualty Insurance
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+22.4%22.3%1.02−46.3%+347%0.60—
Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 2 shownEverything else in Property & Casualty Insurance and Insurance and the categories next to it (Life Insurance), plus PGR's specific themes. 2 of 38 passed at least one test.
MFCManulife Financial Corporation · Life Insurance
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+22.6%24.0%0.97−57.5%+373%0.25—
UNMUnum Group · Life Insurance
Higher return in most periods+30.6%29.3%1.06−81.0%+256%0.44—
The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 87 of 3,571 passed at least one test.
ABBVAbbVie Inc. · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+26.1%23.4%1.11−45.1%+603%0.36—
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+26.6%19.1%1.34−39.1%+428%0.110.48%
WELLWelltower Inc. · Healthcare REITs
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+26.0%23.8%1.09−63.3%+379%0.37—
CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
On the frontierHigher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+42.1%24.7%1.55−46.1%+349%0.33—
XOMExxonmobil Holdings Corporation · Integrated Oil & Gas
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+27.1%26.5%1.04−61.0%+214%0.18—
MCKMcKesson Corporation · Health Care Distribution
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+38.7%25.0%1.44−38.1%+586%0.38—
DTMDT Midstream, Inc. · Oil & Gas Midstream
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline+24.5%25.2%1.00−23.6%—0.38—
SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Bonds
On the frontierSimilar return, lower volatility+20.6%18.4%1.12−45.7%—0.000.80%
What these numbers mean for PGR
Annual return
PGR returned 21.3% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $26,200. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
PGR's volatility over the past 5 years was 25.6%, 1.5 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, PGR's return lands within 25.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
PGR's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.89, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so PGR earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
PGR's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 30.3%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 30.3% fall takes a 43.6% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, PGR's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.16 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against PGR instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a PGR holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 8 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than PGR with less volatility

Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. Best first; funds that hold the same thing are listed once.

#InvestmentFound inAnnual returnVolatilitySharpeWorst decline10Y returnCorr. with PGRExpense
1
ABBVAbbVie Inc. · Pharmaceuticals
Whole market+26.1%23.4%1.11−45.1%+603%0.36—
2
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity
Whole market+26.6%19.1%1.34−39.1%+428%0.110.48%
3
WELLWelltower Inc. · Healthcare REITs
Whole market+26.0%23.8%1.09−63.3%+379%0.37—
4
MFCManulife Financial Corporation · Life Insurance
Same or nearby category+22.6%24.0%0.97−57.5%+373%0.25—
5
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. · Property & Casualty Insurance
Popular alternative+22.4%22.3%1.02−46.3%+347%0.60—
6
MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream
Whole market+23.5%18.8%1.22−75.2%+350%0.48—
7
WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. · Oil & Gas Midstream
Whole market+24.6%24.0%1.04−68.1%+288%0.43—
8
CORCencora, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
Whole market+24.2%22.8%1.07−32.4%+406%0.42—

PGR against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against PGR, compared period by period and year by year.

How do PGR's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at PGR, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than PGR with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%−15.0%−10.0%−5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityPGR: 21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%TRV: 22.4% a year, volatility 22.3%ALL: 17.0% a year, volatility 26.2%MCY: 17.0% a year, volatility 34.3%CINF: 10.2% a year, volatility 25.7%ROOT: −11.4% a year, volatility 101%LMND: −7.1% a year, volatility 82.9%SIGI: 4.4% a year, volatility 27.4%CCC: −7.7% a year, volatility 38.2%KMPR: −12.3% a year, volatility 37.3%AIG: 9.0% a year, volatility 25.9%CPRT: −5.7% a year, volatility 27.5%AFG: 9.8% a year, volatility 22.6%BRK-B: 13.4% a year, volatility 17.1%THG: 14.4% a year, volatility 22.9%WRB: 18.9% a year, volatility 22.9%CB: 15.7% a year, volatility 20.4%HIG: 15.6% a year, volatility 22.0%ORI: 17.0% a year, volatility 22.2%RLI: 8.1% a year, volatility 23.9%ACGL: 20.1% a year, volatility 24.5%AJG: 10.9% a year, volatility 24.2%CNA: 9.2% a year, volatility 21.6%MKL: 7.3% a year, volatility 22.4%AON: −0.3% a year, volatility 23.8%PGRSPY (S&P 500)TRVALLMCYCINFROOTLMNDSIGICCCKMPRAIGCPRTBRK-BTHGWRBCBRLIACGLAJGCNAMKLAON0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityPGR: 21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%TRV: 22.4% a year, volatility 22.3%ALL: 17.0% a year, volatility 26.2%MCY: 17.0% a year, volatility 34.3%CINF: 10.2% a year, volatility 25.7%ROOT: −11.4% a year, volatility 101%LMND: −7.1% a year, volatility 82.9%SIGI: 4.4% a year, volatility 27.4%CCC: −7.7% a year, volatility 38.2%KMPR: −12.3% a year, volatility 37.3%AIG: 9.0% a year, volatility 25.9%CPRT: −5.7% a year, volatility 27.5%AFG: 9.8% a year, volatility 22.6%BRK-B: 13.4% a year, volatility 17.1%THG: 14.4% a year, volatility 22.9%WRB: 18.9% a year, volatility 22.9%CB: 15.7% a year, volatility 20.4%HIG: 15.6% a year, volatility 22.0%ORI: 17.0% a year, volatility 22.2%RLI: 8.1% a year, volatility 23.9%ACGL: 20.1% a year, volatility 24.5%AJG: 10.9% a year, volatility 24.2%CNA: 9.2% a year, volatility 21.6%MKL: 7.3% a year, volatility 22.4%AON: −0.3% a year, volatility 23.8%PGRSPY (S&P 500)TRVALLCINFROOTLMNDSIGICCCKMPRAIGCPRTBRK-BWRBCBMKLAON
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.+22.4%22.3%
PGR This pageThe Progressive Corporation+21.3%25.6%
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.+20.1%24.5%
WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation+18.9%22.9%
ORI Old Republic International Corporation+17.0%22.2%
ALL The Allstate Corporation+17.0%26.2%
MCY Mercury General Corporation+17.0%34.3%
CB Chubb Limited+15.7%20.4%
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.+15.6%22.0%
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.+14.4%22.9%
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.+13.4%17.1%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.+10.9%24.2%
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation+10.2%25.7%
AFG American Financial Group, Inc.+9.8%22.6%
CNA CNA Financial Corporation+9.2%21.6%
AIG American International Group, Inc.+9.0%25.9%
RLI RLI Corp.+8.1%23.9%
MKL Markel Corporation+7.3%22.4%
SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc.+4.4%27.4%
AON Aon plc−0.3%23.8%
CPRT Copart, Inc.−5.7%27.5%
LMND Lemonade, Inc.−7.1%82.9%
CCC CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.−7.7%38.2%
ROOT Root, Inc.−11.4%101%
KMPR Kemper Corporation−12.3%37.3%
Open these 26 in EasyCompare

Has PGR consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares PGR with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than PGR helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than PGR over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y10YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
PGR The Progressive Corporation (this page)—+4.6%+4.6%+9.0%+4.8%+7.7%+56.8%+162%+816%25.6%0.89−30.3%—$129B—
TRV QualifiedThe Travelers Companies, Inc.5/5 short2/3 long+6.6%+7.8%+32.6%+40.3%+51.5%+158%+174%+347%22.3%1.02−46.3%—$83B—
AFG Insurance - Property & CasualtyAmerican Financial Group, Inc.5/5 short1/3 long+6.4%+5.6%+16.3%+15.0%+20.4%+66.9%+59.7%+321%22.6%0.53−59.0%—$12B—
BRK-B Insurance - DiversifiedBerkshire Hathaway Inc.5/5 short1/3 long+7.5%+9.9%+14.3%+8.6%+9.3%+60.7%+87.8%+274%17.1%0.82−29.6%—$1.2T—
THG Insurance - Property & CasualtyThe Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.4/5 short1/3 long+3.9%+8.7%+30.1%+31.4%+37.7%+115%+95.9%+291%22.9%0.70−40.1%—$8.1B—
WRB Insurance - Property & CasualtyW. R. Berkley Corporation3/5 short1/3 long+6.3%+0.7%+11.7%+6.7%+2.3%+87.3%+138%+443%22.9%0.87−45.3%—$27B—
ALL Insurance - Property & CasualtyThe Allstate Corporation3/5 short1/3 long+2.9%−1.1%+17.3%+24.4%+31.5%+116%+119%+356%26.2%0.73−41.4%—$63B—
CB Insurance - Property & CasualtyChubb Limited3/5 short1/3 long+6.1%+1.8%+9.1%+16.4%+35.0%+78.9%+107%+248%20.4%0.82−42.6%—$138B—
MCY Insurance - Property & CasualtyMercury General Corporation3/5 short1/3 long+4.7%−0.9%+11.4%+15.6%+33.9%+268%+119%+198%34.3%0.63−55.3%—$5.8B—
CINF Insurance - Property & CasualtyCincinnati Financial Corporation2/5 short1/3 long+3.7%−4.1%+4.8%+8.4%+13.6%+87.6%+62.7%+203%25.7%0.51−58.1%—$26B—
HIG Insurance - DiversifiedThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.1/5 short1/3 long+4.3%−2.5%−0.9%+0.8%+12.1%+105%+106%+294%22.0%0.77−57.6%—$37B—
ROOT Insurance - Property & CasualtyRoot, Inc.1/5 short1/3 long+5.5%−12.6%−5.6%−25.9%−32.4%+470%−45.4%—101%0.35−99.3%—$719M—
ORI Insurance - Property & CasualtyOld Republic International Corporation0/5 short1/3 long+1.2%−5.3%−5.2%−6.1%+3.6%+81.5%+119%+349%22.2%0.82−47.8%—$9.6B—
LMND Insurance - Property & CasualtyLemonade, Inc.0/5 short1/3 long−5.1%−32.7%−33.9%−40.2%−9.0%+287%−30.9%—82.9%0.31−94.2%—$3.5B—
RLI Insurance - Property & CasualtyRLI Corp.4/5 short0/3 long+6.2%+1.9%+13.5%+5.4%+14.2%+8.4%+47.7%+206%23.9%0.45−43.5%—$5.8B—
ACGL Insurance - DiversifiedArch Capital Group Ltd.3/5 short0/3 long+5.8%−0.5%+3.9%+7.9%+16.5%+28.7%+150%+309%24.5%0.87−53.8%—$35B—
SIGI Insurance - Property & CasualtySelective Insurance Group, Inc.3/5 short0/3 long+1.9%−7.1%+10.3%+8.6%+9.1%−9.1%+24.1%+160%27.4%0.30−48.4%—$5.3B—
CCC Software - ApplicationCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.3/5 short0/3 long+17.4%+21.9%+35.0%−3.0%−13.7%−38.1%−33.1%—38.2%-0.02−71.3%—$4.5B—
AJG Insurance - BrokersArthur J. Gallagher & Co.2/5 short0/3 long+9.6%+2.5%+16.9%+2.2%−6.1%+17.3%+68.0%+516%24.2%0.55−44.4%—$66B—
CNA Insurance - Property & CasualtyCNA Financial Corporation2/5 short0/3 long+1.3%−7.7%+3.6%+10.9%+15.2%+56.4%+55.2%+183%21.6%0.52−45.9%—$13B—
KMPR Insurance - Property & CasualtyKemper Corporation2/5 short0/3 long+12.1%+6.1%−9.3%−22.2%−37.4%−24.1%−48.0%−3.1%37.3%-0.16−70.3%—$1.8B—
MKL Insurance - Property & CasualtyMarkel Corporation1/5 short0/3 long+6.2%−4.8%−4.1%−11.6%−1.2%+29.8%+42.3%+110%22.4%0.43−44.7%—$23B—
AIG Insurance - DiversifiedAmerican International Group, Inc.1/5 short0/3 long+9.8%+3.3%+5.6%−1.0%+8.0%+47.1%+54.1%+75.5%25.9%0.47−69.6%—$43B—
CPRT Specialty Business ServicesCopart, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long−3.7%+1.2%−17.6%−26.3%−37.8%−36.3%−25.5%+312%27.5%-0.08−58.9%—$26B—
AON Insurance - BrokersAon plc0/5 short0/3 long+2.0%−18.0%−10.2%−13.2%−13.0%−3.1%−1.6%+195%23.8%0.11−38.7%—$63B—
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How did PGR do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where PGR ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with PGR and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of PGR; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places PGR among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of PGR20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997
PGR This pageThe Progressive Corporation—−3.0%+51.4%+23.2%+26.8%+10.8%+41.5%+25.1%+9.4%+61.6%+14.9%+21.1%+5.3%+30.9%+15.5%+0.2%+17.2%+21.5%−22.1%−13.2%−16.9%+37.8%+1.7%+68.5%0.0%+44.3%+42.2%−56.6%+41.6%+78.3%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 13 of 2919 of 254 of 255 of 253 of 2518 of 251 of 2213 of 226 of 221 of 2215 of 226 of 2214 of 2219 of 2212 of 2216 of 2210 of 225 of 2213 of 2215 of 2222 of 224 of 2219 of 222 of 229 of 223 of 2210 of 2222 of 223 of 223 of 22
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF13 of 29+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%−4.6%+21.7%+12.0%+1.2%+13.5%+32.3%+16.0%+1.9%+15.1%+26.4%−36.8%+5.1%+15.9%+4.8%+10.7%+28.2%−21.6%−11.7%−9.8%+20.4%+28.7%+33.5%
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.10 of 29+22.4%+28.8%+3.9%+22.4%+14.0%+5.3%+17.0%−9.7%+13.4%+11.0%+9.1%+19.6%+29.1%+24.8%+9.3%+14.8%+13.5%−13.8%+2.4%+22.9%+23.2%−3.6%+20.3%−20.1%−16.9%+65.7%0.0%−12.9%+43.6%
AFG American Financial Group, Inc.13 of 29+5.4%+23.8%−7.6%+10.9%+93.8%−16.2%+27.1%−13.0%+29.2%+25.8%+22.2%+8.7%+51.2%+9.9%+16.5%+32.2%+11.7%−19.1%−18.6%+42.4%+24.4%+20.2%+17.4%−4.1%−3.8%+5.0%−38.0%+11.6%+9.5%
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.12 of 29+10.9%+27.1%+15.5%+3.3%+28.9%+2.4%+10.9%+3.0%+21.6%+23.4%−12.1%+26.6%+32.2%+17.6%−4.8%+21.9%+2.2%−32.1%+29.2%+24.9%0.0%+4.3%+16.2%−4.0%+7.3%+28.6%−22.1%+52.7%+38.4%
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.12 of 29+20.7%+30.6%−7.6%+5.4%+14.5%−12.3%+26.7%+10.1%+21.4%+14.4%+16.6%+22.4%+58.3%+14.4%−23.0%+7.6%+5.2%−5.0%−5.2%+17.5%+28.1%+6.7%+205%−77.3%−38.1%+30.8%−3.4%+16.3%+49.8%
WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation14 of 29+23.0%+27.9%+0.3%+33.9%+27.4%−3.1%+43.8%+5.7%+9.9%+23.7%+7.8%+21.8%+16.1%+13.6%+27.1%+12.3%−19.9%+5.2%−13.1%+9.2%+52.6%+36.1%+33.2%+10.8%+15.2%+131%−37.4%−21.1%+32.0%
ALL The Allstate Corporation11 of 29+10.1%+40.6%+6.4%+18.4%+9.9%−0.1%+38.8%−19.5%+43.6%+21.7%−9.9%+31.2%+38.6%+50.2%−11.4%+9.1%−5.1%−34.5%−17.6%+23.4%+6.9%+23.1%+19.4%+12.3%−21.0%+85.6%−36.4%−13.8%+58.5%
CB Chubb Limited14 of 29+14.5%+23.9%+4.2%+16.0%+27.9%+1.4%+22.9%−9.6%+12.8%+15.6%+5.3%+14.4%+31.9%+17.6%+14.5%+26.4%−1.8%−13.0%+3.8%+15.4%+27.5%+5.3%+44.3%−25.4%−3.7%+159%−50.6%+7.8%+62.3%
MCY Mercury General Corporation13 of 29+44.1%+82.2%+13.6%−32.6%+6.2%+13.5%−1.2%+1.7%−7.2%+35.2%−13.8%+19.8%+32.6%−7.8%+12.6%+15.9%−8.1%−3.0%−1.8%−6.1%+0.1%+32.4%+27.8%−11.5%+1.6%+104%−47.8%−19.6%+114%
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation14 of 29+16.3%+42.5%+4.0%−7.9%+33.3%−14.1%+38.9%+6.3%+1.0%+31.5%+19.0%+2.6%+38.4%+34.2%+1.5%+27.5%−3.6%−22.8%−9.8%+4.4%+9.1%+14.2%+14.0%+0.7%−1.4%+29.5%−13.2%−20.7%+121%
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.12 of 29+28.1%+38.5%+8.6%+12.3%+44.3%−17.0%+39.8%−19.2%+20.3%+11.8%+6.1%+17.1%+64.1%+40.9%−37.5%+14.8%+43.8%−79.8%−4.6%+10.8%+25.8%+19.5%+33.0%−26.3%−9.6%+51.9%−12.1%+19.3%+41.5%
ROOT Root, Inc.3 of 5−0.5%+593%+133%−92.0%−80.3%————————————————————————
ORI Old Republic International Corporation12 of 29+37.4%+27.2%+26.4%+6.7%+44.9%−7.6%+17.7%+4.9%+17.0%+6.3%+33.4%−11.2%+70.5%+23.5%−27.3%+43.3%−10.2%−18.2%−31.5%+13.9%+10.4%+1.9%+42.5%+1.9%−10.1%+141%−37.0%−8.1%+41.1%
LMND Lemonade, Inc.2 of 5+94.1%+127%+17.9%−67.5%−65.6%————————————————————————
RLI RLI Corp.12 of 29−19.1%+27.6%+3.8%+24.8%+10.7%+18.1%+33.2%+16.7%+0.4%+6.8%+31.1%+9.6%+57.9%−2.7%+52.1%+13.7%−11.0%+9.6%+2.2%+14.5%+21.8%+12.5%+36.0%+24.6%+2.5%+33.8%+4.1%−15.2%+50.0%
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.16 of 29+3.9%+30.8%+18.3%+41.2%+23.2%−15.9%+60.5%−11.7%+5.2%+23.7%+18.1%−1.0%+35.6%+18.2%+26.9%+23.0%+2.0%−0.3%+4.1%+23.5%+41.3%−2.9%+28.0%+21.0%+72.2%+18.8%−42.2%−2.1%+14.6%
SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc.11 of 29−8.8%−4.6%+13.7%+9.7%+24.0%+4.5%+8.2%+5.1%+38.2%+30.3%+26.0%+2.7%+43.6%+12.0%+0.7%+14.0%−25.7%+2.1%−18.1%+9.7%+22.0%+39.1%+31.8%+18.7%−8.0%+45.7%−11.9%−23.7%+45.4%
CCC CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.1 of 5−32.2%+3.0%+30.9%−23.6%−14.2%————————————————————————
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.12 of 29−8.0%+27.4%+20.5%+12.4%+39.0%+32.1%+31.8%+19.2%+25.1%+31.1%−10.1%+3.5%+40.0%+7.6%+20.3%+35.6%−7.8%+12.7%−14.3%−0.1%−1.2%+3.3%+13.4%−13.1%+10.4%+100%+51.8%+32.5%+15.3%
CNA CNA Financial Corporation8 of 29+7.0%+24.0%+7.1%+3.8%+19.0%−5.4%+9.5%−11.1%+37.1%+30.0%−2.3%−5.3%+56.5%+6.9%+0.3%+12.7%+45.9%−50.4%−15.8%+23.2%+22.4%+11.0%−5.9%−12.2%−24.7%−0.5%−3.3%−5.5%+19.4%
KMPR Kemper Corporation8 of 29−37.5%+39.2%+1.5%−14.2%−22.1%+0.8%+18.3%−2.3%+58.7%+22.6%+5.8%−9.3%+42.5%+4.3%+23.2%+15.2%+48.2%−64.4%−0.3%+15.7%+2.7%+14.1%+50.1%−22.5%+9.2%+13.5%+9.4%+15.5%+21.2%
MKL Markel Corporation11 of 29+24.5%+21.6%+7.8%+6.8%+19.4%−9.6%+10.1%−8.9%+25.9%+2.4%+29.4%+17.7%+33.9%+4.5%+9.7%+11.2%+13.7%−39.1%+2.3%+51.4%−12.9%+43.6%+23.4%+14.4%−0.8%+16.8%−14.4%+15.9%+73.5%
AIG American International Group, Inc.9 of 29+20.0%+9.8%+9.8%+13.8%+53.9%−23.1%+33.6%−32.1%−6.9%+7.8%+12.1%+10.7%+45.2%+52.1%−43.6%+92.2%−4.6%−97.2%−17.6%+6.2%+5.0%−0.5%+15.1%−26.9%−19.3%+37.0%+40.2%+33.7%+51.2%
CPRT Copart, Inc.14 of 29−31.8%+17.1%+60.9%−19.7%+19.1%+39.9%+90.3%+10.7%+55.9%+45.9%+4.2%−0.4%+24.1%+23.4%+28.3%+1.8%+34.7%−36.1%+41.5%+30.6%−12.7%+58.7%+40.5%−51.3%+69.7%−1.1%+169%+81.1%+36.2%
AON Aon plc15 of 29−0.9%+24.4%−2.3%+0.6%+43.4%+2.4%+44.7%+9.9%+21.1%+22.5%−1.6%+14.3%+52.4%+20.3%+2.9%+21.8%−14.8%−2.9%+37.0%−0.1%+54.3%+2.2%+30.3%−45.2%+6.3%−11.9%+10.7%−3.8%+44.6%
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Risk and diversification

How PGR has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were PGR's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents PGR's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Green means PGR fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringPGR fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
Dot-com bust−71.0%+10.7%Jan 1999Mar 200014 monthsApr 20022.1 years
2008 financial crisis−64.6%−42.6%Dec 2005Mar 20093.3 yearsFeb 20133.9 years
No named crash−37.9%−17.7%Jul 1998Oct 19983 monthsDec 19982 months
No named crash−37.5%—Oct 1986Dec 19882.2 yearsAug 19898 months
No named crash−36.1%−3.8%Oct 1993Mar 19945 monthsSep 199518 months

How did PGR do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far PGR, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than PGR.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
PGR This pageThe Progressive Corporation—−2.9%−10.5%−18.3%−22.3%−4.3%−12.3%−16.6%−1.2%−52.9%−36.2%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF1 of 10−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.3 of 10−2.6%−18.9%−39.2%−15.7%−8.8%−11.4%−18.1%−1.1%−43.7%−55.1%
AFG American Financial Group, Inc.3 of 10−7.4%−16.2%−58.2%−23.5%−6.6%−11.8%−13.8%−0.5%−58.7%−38.0%
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.4 of 10−2.7%−26.6%−29.3%−16.1%−8.5%−13.5%−14.3%−0.2%−53.9%−23.3%
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.5 of 10−5.2%−18.6%−38.8%−14.2%−7.3%−10.7%−15.9%0.0%−42.9%−90.1%
WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation4 of 10−7.5%−14.7%−45.3%−12.2%−7.5%−17.6%−15.5%−0.9%−42.0%−25.9%
ALL The Allstate Corporation2 of 10−6.7%−20.3%−40.8%−23.7%−8.0%−10.8%−20.3%−0.8%−74.8%−30.6%
CB Chubb Limited5 of 10−5.6%−19.1%−42.2%−13.6%−8.4%−9.7%−13.7%−0.2%−51.2%−52.4%
MCY Mercury General Corporation3 of 10−6.2%−48.3%−32.2%−19.6%−13.6%−20.2%−12.5%−0.9%−62.9%−26.1%
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation4 of 10−7.0%−35.8%−40.5%−12.1%−7.9%−11.3%−15.4%−1.5%−57.1%−29.8%
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.1 of 10−9.0%−18.6%−54.5%−19.4%−8.1%−23.3%−37.2%−2.9%−96.0%−51.5%
ROOT Root, Inc.0 of 2−23.6%−86.2%————————
ORI Old Republic International Corporation3 of 10−5.3%−20.4%−46.3%−14.0%−7.7%−10.7%−21.9%−3.0%−60.0%−27.9%
LMND Lemonade, Inc.0 of 2−7.2%−57.8%————————
RLI RLI Corp.5 of 10−4.3%−15.7%−27.0%−16.9%−6.1%−8.2%−14.7%−2.2%−34.8%−21.3%
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.5 of 10−7.3%−16.6%−51.7%−17.9%−5.5%−16.4%−12.6%−0.6%−43.9%−21.9%
SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc.2 of 10−5.7%−17.4%−38.4%−14.9%−5.5%−20.3%−25.4%−4.0%−61.3%−34.8%
CCC CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.0 of 2−3.2%−33.0%————————
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.3 of 10−4.8%−18.8%−37.0%−11.5%−6.1%−23.1%−13.4%−1.1%−46.0%−41.2%
CNA CNA Financial Corporation1 of 10−8.7%−25.7%−43.3%−12.3%−8.9%−24.6%−22.7%−1.8%−83.9%−46.2%
KMPR Kemper Corporation1 of 10−9.1%−34.3%−28.9%−23.6%−10.1%−42.0%−21.8%−3.4%−82.5%−32.5%
MKL Markel Corporation4 of 10−6.2%−28.9%−44.7%−21.5%−5.3%−13.3%−13.3%0.0%−61.3%−19.1%
AIG American International Group, Inc.1 of 10−12.7%−25.5%−61.8%−32.5%−7.6%−21.1%−30.6%0.0%−99.5%−50.5%
CPRT Copart, Inc.2 of 10−4.6%−29.6%−43.7%−14.8%−6.2%−16.7%−19.2%−1.4%−51.8%−61.7%
AON Aon plc3 of 10−2.4%−25.4%−38.7%−17.0%−5.3%−17.4%−20.7%0.0%−30.3%−66.5%
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How closely does PGR move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares PGR with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than PGR's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
PGR This pageThe Progressive Corporation72%-5%—0.36
WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation68%26%2.580.55
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.80%46%1.740.61
THG The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.64%37%1.720.60
ALL The Allstate Corporation68%41%1.660.49
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc.70%48%1.480.59
ORI Old Republic International Corporation82%61%1.340.70
CB Chubb Limited63%48%1.320.54
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.74%57%1.280.57
CNA CNA Financial Corporation57%45%1.260.54
AFG American Financial Group, Inc.84%75%1.120.78
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc.78%69%1.120.74
SIGI Selective Insurance Group, Inc.56%51%1.100.56
MCY Mercury General Corporation63%59%1.070.65
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.83%77%1.070.78
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation66%63%1.050.60
RLI RLI Corp.57%54%1.050.39
CPRT Copart, Inc.108%115%0.931.06
AON Aon plc79%89%0.890.78
MKL Markel Corporation65%88%0.750.68
AIG American International Group, Inc.64%93%0.680.91
KMPR Kemper Corporation80%171%0.470.93
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What diversifies PGR?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with PGR's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing PGR with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which PGR lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% PGR and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20252008200720062002199980/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
PGR The Progressive Corporation (this page)1.00+162%0.89−3.0%−22.1%−13.2%−16.9%0.0%−56.6%24.0%+20.7%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.28+119%1.48+27.1%—————19.8%+20.4%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.11+225%1.34+32.8%−20.8%−7.4%———19.6%+22.6%
EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund0.45+101%1.04+9.7%—————20.7%+20.1%
HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF0.45+83.3%1.00+11.9%—————20.6%+19.4%
SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF-0.06+323%0.97+49.2%−44.7%+6.0%−6.7%−47.0%—20.0%+25.7%
DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF0.25+85.0%0.96+23.1%—————19.9%+19.8%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares0.02+126%0.96+63.7%+4.9%+30.4%+22.6%——19.6%+21.0%
SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF0.22+136%0.93+26.6%—————20.5%+21.6%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20252008200720062002199980/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
PGR The Progressive Corporation (this page)1.00+162%0.89−3.0%−22.1%−13.2%−16.9%0.0%−56.6%24.0%+20.7%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.33+479%1.55+76.3%−39.6%−9.8%−5.8%−8.3%−36.8%21.5%+24.8%
CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc.-0.16+3,143%1.47+220%−20.5%−25.7%−26.0%−65.1%+350%20.8%+39.3%
FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc.0.08+1,636%1.46+121%−15.2%+2.1%+38.9%−9.4%−58.7%21.8%+34.4%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.38+413%1.44+44.5%−40.4%+29.7%−1.2%−27.2%−71.3%21.6%+24.1%
MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation0.26+690%1.41+19.2%—————21.8%+27.0%
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Common questions

What was PGR's worst drawdown?

PGR's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 71.0%, from January 1999 to March 2000. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high.

What were PGR's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, PGR's best year was 1997, when it returned 78.3%. Its worst was 1999, with a return of -56.6%.

Is there a better investment than PGR?

Among PGR's popular alternatives, TRV earned more than PGR with less volatility over the past 5 years: 22.4% a year at 22.3% volatility, against 21.3% a year at 25.6%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, MFC (life insurance) earned more than PGR with less volatility over the past 5 years: 22.6% a year at 24.0% volatility, against 21.3% a year at 25.6%.

Is PGR more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. PGR's volatility over the past 5 years was 25.6%, 1.5 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, PGR's return lands within 25.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is PGR's Sharpe ratio?

PGR's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.89, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so PGR earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is PGR with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, PGR's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.16 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against PGR instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a PGR holding.

What are the best alternatives to PGR?

Of the 24 popular alternatives we compared, one outperformed PGR in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: TRV.

Did PGR outperform the S&P 500?

PGR finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 16 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -3.0%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did PGR do in stock market crashes?

PGR fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in six of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when PGR fell 18.3% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

What diversifies PGR?

These had a low correlation with PGR over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.28), DXJ (correlation 0.11) and EMLP (correlation 0.45); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.33), CLS (correlation -0.16) and FIX (correlation 0.08). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

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