Relative Intelligence · Railroads

How Canadian National Railway (CNI) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on CNI alone. It places CNI (Canadian National Railway Company) against 9 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where CNI stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: CNI's full trading record, from November 1996 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowOver the past 3 months, CNI fell 3.8% while the S&P 500 rose 3.9%. At a glance ↓
- Stock or market?CNI fell 3.8% over the past 3 months, 5.5 points ahead of the railroads ETF IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation ETF), which fell 9.3%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Last month cut against the tape: CNI rose 3.2% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsCNI has outpaced the market, rising 30.2% over the past year against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. Even so, it finished behind the S&P 500 in both 2024 and 2025. By year ↓
- Long termCNI turned $10,000 into $22,400 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashIn the 2022 bear market, CNI held up better than UNP (Union Pacific), CSX and NSC; only CP (Canadian Pacific Kansas City) fell less. Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationAgainst the S&P 500, CNI has a correlation of 0.68 over 5 years, more closely than 97% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is more of the same, not a cushion. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Nearby categories and themes
- BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway, insurance) and CB (Chubb, property & casualty insurance) earned more than CNI with less volatility over the past 5 years. BRK-B returned 13.4% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 0.6% a year at 21.9%.
- Versus the S&P 500
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 0.6% at 21.9% for CNI.
- Whole market
- 686 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CNI with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them VTI (Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF), VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) and BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway).
How much would $10,000 in CNI have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in CNI over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of CNI over the same span and CNI's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in CNI at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $468,127 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of CNI, and AAPL finished highest, at $20,534,853.
Choose a period
From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 113 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CNI; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- AAPL$21M+205,249% total · +30.1% a year
- AMZN$11M+114,749% total · +27.5% a year
- JBHT$749,311+7,393% total · +16.0% a year
- MU$629,766+6,198% total · +15.4% a year
- MSFT$508,386+4,984% total · +14.5% a year
- CNI$468,127+4,581% total · +14.2% a year
- UNP$306,095+2,961% total · +12.5% a year
- WAB$275,358+2,654% total · +12.1% a year
- CSX$247,386+2,374% total · +11.7% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 2,248 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CNI; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- WAB$34,242+242% total · +27.9% a year
- GATX$20,714+107% total · +15.7% a year
- CB$20,160+102% total · +15.1% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- BRK-B$18,244+82.4% total · +12.8% a year
- CSX$16,737+67.4% total · +10.8% a year
- UNP$15,540+55.4% total · +9.2% a year
- NSC$14,343+43.4% total · +7.5% a year
- JBHT$14,029+40.3% total · +7.0% a year
- CNI$11,429+14.3% total · +2.7% a year
CNI at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- CNI's deepest decline since it began trading in 1996 was 46.7%, from May 2008 to March 2009. It took nine months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, CNI's best was 2001, when it returned 65.5%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 20.1%. It lost money in seven of those years.
- CNI is 6.6% below its all-time high.
The company
- Market value
- $73B
- Industry
- Railroads
- Price history from
- November 1996
Returns
- Past 1 year
- +30.2%total return
- Past 3 years
- +21.9%+6.8% a year
- Past 5 years
- +3.1%+0.6% a year
- Past 10 years
- +124%+8.4% a year
- Best calendar year
- +65.5%2001
- Worst calendar year
- −20.1%2008
- Losing years
- 7 of 29full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 21.9%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.14return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −46.7%May 2008 to Mar 2009
- From its all-time high
- −6.6%below the peak
CNI against the whole market
Where CNI ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does CNI rank among all stocks?
This section ranks CNI on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how CNI stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- CNI's worst decline of the past 10 years ranks in the top 1% of the 2,187 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top fell the least.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | CNI | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +30.2% | 971 of 3,287 | top 30% |
| 3-year return | +21.9% | 1,989 of 3,017 | bottom 35% |
| 5-year return | +3.1% | 1,694 of 2,893 | bottom 42% |
| 10-year return | +124% | 1,217 of 2,202 | bottom 46% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 21.9% | 146 of 2,893 | top 5% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.14 | 2,017 of 2,893 | bottom 31% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −29.1% | 15 of 2,187 | top 1% |
What has beaten CNI on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). CNI sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than CNI with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 66 stocks and 620 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than CNI over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 19% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half CNI's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 17.0% a year at 11.1% volatility, 49% less than CNI's 21.9%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against 0.14 for CNI. DXJ earned the most, 26.6% a year, while still swinging less than CNI (19.1% against 21.9%).
- None of CNI's popular alternatives made it, but AFL (life insurance) did: 19.0% a year at 20.8% volatility, 5% less than CNI's 21.9%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to CNI; faint dots are 90 more of the 686 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than CNI?
Investments that beat CNI over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among CNI's popular alternatives, UNP and CSX earned more than CNI over the past 5 years with similar volatility: UNP returned 7.1% a year at 22.9% volatility, against 0.6% a year at 21.9%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, BRK-B (insurance) and CB (property & casualty insurance) earned more than CNI with less volatility over the past 5 years. BRK-B returned 13.4% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 0.6% a year at 21.9%.
- Simply owning the S&P 500 would have done better over the past 5 years: 12.7% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 0.6% at 21.9% for CNI.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat CNI over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks CNI's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than CNI follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than CNI's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× CNI's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than CNI's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with CNI?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| +0.6% | 21.9% | 0.14 | −29.1% | +124% | 1.00 | — | |||
| +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | 0.68 | 0.09% | |||
| Popular alternativesbest 3 shownThe investments people most often weigh against CNI. 3 of 9 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +7.1% | 22.9% | 0.42 | −38.7% | +295% | 0.72 | — | ||
| Higher return in most periods | +25.6% | 26.2% | 1.00 | −64.1% | +264% | 0.68 | — | ||
| Higher return, similar volatility | +8.3% | 23.3% | 0.46 | −40.5% | +446% | 0.73 | — | ||
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Railroads and the categories next to it (Freight & Logistics, Industrial Machinery, Insurance, Equipment Rental), plus CNI's specific themes. 42 of 113 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.53 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +15.7% | 20.4% | 0.82 | −42.6% | +248% | 0.50 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +11.7% | 19.4% | 0.67 | −50.8% | +255% | 0.70 | — | ||
ACTEnact Holdings Inc. · Insurance | Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +20.5% | 24.3% | 0.89 | −20.2% | — | 0.40 | — | |
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +22.4% | 22.3% | 1.02 | −46.3% | +347% | 0.50 | — | ||
ERIEErie Indemnity Company · Property & Casualty Insurance | Smaller losses in recent crashes | +6.3% | 31.4% | 0.35 | −60.9% | +200% | 0.23 | — | |
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 1,203 of 3,511 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +5.1% | 18.3% | 0.37 | −23.8% | +145% | 0.38 | — | ||
| Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.26 | — | ||
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.35 | — | |
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.58 | — | ||
| On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +3.8% | 0.3% | 13.25 | −0.3% | — | -0.05 | 0.09% | ||
FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Broad Market | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes | +10.2% | 10.4% | 0.99 | −20.6% | +158% | 0.58 | 0.95% | |
| Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +26.1% | 23.4% | 1.11 | −45.1% | +603% | 0.23 | — | ||
SUBiShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF · Municipal Bonds | Similar return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +1.4% | 1.7% | 0.85 | −9.4% | +15.6% | 0.39 | 0.07% | |
What these numbers mean for CNI
- Annual return
- CNI returned 0.6% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $10,300. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- CNI's volatility over the past 5 years was 21.9%, 1.3 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CNI's return lands within 21.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- CNI's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.14, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CNI earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- CNI's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 29.1%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 29.1% fall takes a 41.1% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, CNI's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.68 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CNI instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CNI holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 686 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than CNI with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with CNI | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whole market | +5.1% | 18.3% | 0.37 | −23.8% | +145% | 0.38 | — | |
| 2 | Whole market | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.26 | — | |
| 3 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.35 | — |
| 4 | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.58 | — | |
| 5 | Whole market | +3.8% | 0.3% | 13.25 | −0.3% | — | -0.05 | 0.09% | |
| 6 | JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds | Whole market | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.10 | 0.20% |
| 7 | GSPYGotham Enhanced 500 ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.2% | 16.6% | 0.83 | −23.3% | — | 0.68 | 0.65% |
| 8 | DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity | Whole market | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.42 | 0.48% |
| 9 | Whole market | +14.7% | 16.8% | 0.91 | −37.0% | +204% | 0.47 | — | |
| 10 | Whole market | +12.1% | 13.7% | 0.90 | −36.8% | +235% | 0.70 | 0.03% | |
| 11 | Whole market | +15.8% | 20.0% | 0.84 | −42.0% | +310% | 0.51 | — | |
| 12 | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.3% | 0.72 | −33.4% | +252% | 0.62 | 0.06% | |
| 13 | Whole market | +12.9% | 19.9% | 0.71 | −46.9% | +187% | 0.59 | — | |
| 14 | FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.4% | 0.99 | −20.6% | +158% | 0.58 | 0.95% |
| 15 | BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · Crypto | Whole market | +6.3% | 3.3% | 1.85 | −4.9% | — | 0.52 | 0.69% |
| 16 | VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | −13.1% | +40.5% | 0.01 | 0.30% |
| 17 | Whole market | +13.9% | 18.5% | 0.80 | −34.0% | +446% | 0.43 | — | |
| 18 | Whole market | +11.9% | 19.4% | 0.68 | −54.4% | +30.4% | 0.14 | — | |
| 19 | FLRTPacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF · Financials | Whole market | +6.0% | 2.3% | 2.55 | −21.0% | +58.0% | 0.26 | 0.60% |
| 20 | Whole market | +7.2% | 19.2% | 0.46 | −29.0% | +68.8% | 0.35 | — | |
| 21 | SDCIUSCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +20.6% | 18.4% | 1.12 | −45.7% | — | 0.10 | 0.80% |
| 22 | Same or nearby category | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.53 | — | |
| 23 | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.3% | 0.60 | −28.4% | +202% | 0.58 | 0.08% | |
| 24 | FTQIFirst Trust Nasdaq BuyWrite Income ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.8% | 0.82 | −19.4% | +121% | 0.56 | 0.75% |
| 25 | PVALPutnam Focused Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +16.1% | 15.1% | 1.07 | −41.3% | — | 0.72 | 0.56% |
| 26 | HDViShares Core High Dividend ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +12.9% | 13.0% | 1.00 | −37.0% | +172% | 0.56 | 0.08% |
| 27 | FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | 0.00 | 0.15% |
| 28 | EMXCiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF · Emerging Markets Equity | Whole market | +11.1% | 19.5% | 0.64 | −42.8% | — | 0.53 | 0.25% |
| 29 | Whole market | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +32.7% | 0.37 | 0.03% | |
| 30 | COWZPacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.7% | 0.70 | −38.7% | — | 0.60 | 0.49% |
| 31 | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.0% | 0.72 | −23.1% | — | 0.70 | 0.21% | |
| 32 | RWLInvesco S&P 500 Revenue ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +13.7% | 14.4% | 0.97 | −36.1% | +287% | 0.74 | 0.39% |
| 33 | PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.5% | 8.6% | 1.20 | −18.2% | — | 0.68 | 0.79% |
| 34 | CDCVictoryShares US EQ Income Enhanced Volatility Wtd ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +6.0% | 12.5% | 0.53 | −21.4% | +168% | 0.53 | 0.38% |
| 35 | Same or nearby category | +15.7% | 20.4% | 0.82 | −42.6% | +248% | 0.50 | — | |
| 36 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +11.1% | 10.5% | 1.05 | −13.6% | — | 0.64 | 0.85% |
| 37 | JQUAJPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +13.6% | 15.7% | 0.89 | −32.9% | — | 0.71 | 0.12% |
| 38 | VLUEiShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +15.9% | 18.4% | 0.90 | −39.5% | +286% | 0.59 | 0.15% |
| 39 | Whole market | +1.7% | 2.8% | 0.63 | −8.5% | +20.5% | 0.34 | 0.03% | |
| 40 | Whole market | +2.3% | 2.9% | 0.80 | −12.9% | +28.6% | 0.41 | 0.03% | |
| 41 | Whole market | +7.5% | 11.0% | 0.71 | −13.7% | — | 0.71 | 0.35% | |
| 42 | PDBCInvesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · Broad Commodities | Whole market | +11.7% | 19.3% | 0.67 | −40.7% | +153% | 0.07 | 0.74% |
| 43 | VNLAJanus Henderson Short Duration Income ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.0% | 1.1% | 3.77 | −4.5% | — | 0.16 | 0.25% |
| 44 | FLTRVanEck IG Floating Rate ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +4.8% | 2.1% | 2.20 | −17.8% | +41.8% | -0.05 | 0.14% |
| 45 | USMCPrincipal U.S. Mega-Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.1% | 16.4% | 0.89 | −30.0% | — | 0.64 | 0.12% |
| 46 | FLRNState Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.5% | 1.7% | 2.58 | −14.7% | +35.9% | 0.05 | 0.15% |
| 47 | Same or nearby category | +11.7% | 19.4% | 0.67 | −50.8% | +255% | 0.70 | — | |
| 48 | DSIiShares ESG MSCI KLD 400 ETF · US ESG Equity | Whole market | +12.0% | 18.1% | 0.72 | −34.1% | +322% | 0.67 | 0.25% |
| 49 | AVLVAvantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +14.0% | 16.9% | 0.86 | −19.5% | — | 0.70 | 0.15% |
| 50 | HYGHiShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +6.6% | 7.1% | 0.94 | −23.9% | +74.5% | 0.47 | 1.12% |
| 51 | IWXiShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +12.7% | 13.8% | 0.94 | −35.8% | +221% | 0.71 | 0.20% |
| 52 | FLDRFidelity Low Duration Bond Factor ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.2% | 3.09 | −12.2% | — | 0.28 | 0.15% |
| 53 | SCHOSchwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF · Treasury Bonds | Whole market | +2.0% | 2.0% | 0.96 | −5.7% | +18.9% | 0.26 | 0.03% |
| 54 | GNRState Street SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF · Natural Resources Equity | Whole market | +10.7% | 20.1% | 0.61 | −48.6% | +173% | 0.57 | 0.40% |
| 55 | FTGCFirst Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy Fund · Alternatives | Whole market | +12.9% | 15.6% | 0.86 | −35.9% | +139% | 0.12 | 0.98% |
| 56 | TBUXT. Rowe Price Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +4.1% | 1.1% | 3.85 | −1.8% | — | 0.13 | 0.17% |
| 57 | SPUSSP Funds S&P 500 Sharia Industry Exclusions ETF · Technology | Whole market | +15.0% | 19.5% | 0.82 | −30.8% | — | 0.61 | 0.45% |
| 58 | USHYiShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · High Yield Bonds | Whole market | +3.6% | 7.4% | 0.52 | −22.4% | — | 0.53 | 0.08% |
| 59 | RAVINorthern Trust Ultra-Short Fixed Income ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.8% | 1.4% | 2.61 | −3.7% | +30.8% | 0.05 | 0.26% |
| 60 | BUFRFT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF · Buffered Equity | Whole market | +9.9% | 10.5% | 0.96 | −13.7% | — | 0.69 | 0.10% |
| 61 | DIVBiShares Core Dividend ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +13.9% | 15.4% | 0.93 | −36.9% | — | 0.71 | 0.05% |
| 62 | PWVInvesco Large Cap Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.5% | 14.2% | 0.97 | −37.6% | +223% | 0.69 | 0.55% |
| 63 | USTBVictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.6% | 2.0% | 1.73 | −5.3% | — | 0.36 | 0.34% |
| 64 | FHLCFidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +7.3% | 15.4% | 0.53 | −28.8% | +199% | 0.60 | 0.08% |
| 65 | BKLNInvesco Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +5.4% | 4.5% | 1.19 | −24.1% | +50.7% | 0.33 | 0.67% |
| 66 | LMBSFirst Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF · Mortgage-Backed Securities | Whole market | +3.0% | 2.6% | 1.14 | −6.5% | +25.6% | 0.36 | 0.66% |
| 67 | SRLNState Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans | Whole market | +4.7% | 3.9% | 1.18 | −22.3% | +54.2% | 0.31 | 0.70% |
| 68 | DSTLDistillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.3% | 16.1% | 0.75 | −33.1% | — | 0.69 | 0.39% |
| 69 | FTSLFirst Trust Senior Loan Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +5.0% | 3.4% | 1.49 | −22.7% | +52.1% | 0.29 | 0.70% |
| 70 | VFMFVanguard U.S. Multifactor ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.3% | 17.6% | 0.85 | −41.3% | — | 0.69 | 0.18% |
| 71 | DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +9.8% | 12.4% | 0.82 | −20.4% | — | -0.07 | 0.85% |
| 72 | PPHVanEck Pharmaceutical ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +11.6% | 15.8% | 0.78 | −29.7% | +153% | 0.54 | 0.36% |
| 73 | PTNQPacer Trendpilot 100 ETF · Technology | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.1% | 0.73 | −28.1% | +305% | 0.32 | 0.65% |
| 74 | FLUDFranklin Ultra Short Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +3.9% | 1.4% | 2.74 | −1.7% | — | 0.07 | 0.15% |
| 75 | FTXHFirst Trust Nasdaq Pharmaceuticals ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +11.9% | 16.9% | 0.75 | −32.1% | +153% | 0.47 | 0.60% |
| 76 | HLALWahed FTSE USA Shariah ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +14.0% | 18.0% | 0.82 | −33.6% | — | 0.63 | 0.50% |
| 77 | JVALJPMorgan U.S. Value Factor ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +12.0% | 17.2% | 0.75 | −40.4% | — | 0.68 | 0.12% |
| 78 | IDHQInvesco S&P International Developed Quality ETF · International | Whole market | +10.0% | 17.9% | 0.63 | −33.6% | +183% | 0.71 | 0.29% |
| 79 | QQQEDirexion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +8.1% | 20.7% | 0.48 | −32.1% | +294% | 0.66 | 0.35% |
| 80 | Whole market | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | 0.40 | — | |
| 81 | DJPiPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return(SM) ETN · Commodities | Whole market | +11.2% | 18.9% | 0.66 | −38.4% | +120% | 0.14 | 0.70% |
| 82 | FYLDCambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +13.1% | 16.0% | 0.85 | −44.6% | +203% | 0.57 | 0.59% |
| 83 | EYLDCambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF · International | Whole market | +11.9% | 18.4% | 0.70 | −41.8% | +199% | 0.49 | 0.63% |
| 84 | ENFRAlerian Energy Infrastructure ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +18.4% | 19.1% | 0.98 | −62.6% | +183% | 0.51 | 0.35% |
| 85 | NXTGFirst Trust Indxx NextG ETF · Technology | Whole market | +16.2% | 19.1% | 0.89 | −33.6% | +330% | 0.55 | 0.70% |
| 86 | DJDInvesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +11.8% | 13.3% | 0.91 | −34.7% | +227% | 0.66 | 0.07% |
| 87 | AORiShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +6.4% | 10.7% | 0.64 | −23.0% | +118% | 0.69 | 0.20% |
| 88 | ACIOAptus Collared Income Opportunity ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.3% | 11.1% | 0.86 | −14.2% | — | 0.66 | 0.79% |
| 89 | RSPHInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +6.1% | 16.8% | 0.44 | −30.4% | +177% | 0.68 | 0.40% |
| 90 | BSCRInvesco BulletShares 2027 Corporate Bond ETF · Investment Grade Bonds | Whole market | +1.7% | 4.1% | 0.44 | −17.3% | — | 0.40 | 0.10% |
| 91 | SCHYSchwab International Dividend Equity ETF · International | Whole market | +9.5% | 13.3% | 0.75 | −24.0% | — | 0.64 | 0.08% |
| 92 | LGHHCM Defender 500 Index ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.4% | 16.7% | 0.63 | −29.6% | — | 0.56 | 1.00% |
| 93 | LDURPIMCO Enhanced Low Duration Active Exchange-Traded Fund · Bonds | Whole market | +2.4% | 2.1% | 1.13 | −8.7% | +26.7% | 0.14 | 0.54% |
| 94 | XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF · Consumer Staples | Whole market | +7.2% | 13.8% | 0.57 | −24.5% | +121% | 0.59 | 0.08% |
| 95 | JPIBJPMorgan International Bond Opportunities ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +2.5% | 4.2% | 0.62 | −13.1% | — | 0.52 | 0.50% |
| 96 | INFLHorizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.8% | 17.8% | 0.72 | −21.3% | — | 0.60 | 0.85% |
| 97 | PREFPrincipal Spectrum Preferred Securities Active ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +2.5% | 4.9% | 0.52 | −23.0% | — | 0.46 | 0.55% |
| 98 | TDVGT. Rowe Price Dividend Growth ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.6% | 13.8% | 0.73 | −19.2% | — | 0.76 | 0.50% |
| 99 | FLSPFranklin Systematic Style Premia ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +8.4% | 13.4% | 0.68 | −22.9% | — | 0.01 | 0.65% |
| 100 | SMIGBahl & Gaynor Small/Mid Cap Income Growth ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +6.5% | 16.0% | 0.48 | −19.7% | — | 0.64 | 0.60% |
CNI against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against CNI, compared period by period and year by year.
How do CNI's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at CNI, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- None of the nine popular alternatives earned more than CNI over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Over the past 5 years, CNI returned 0.6% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (21.9% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than CNI with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | +25.6% | 26.2% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| GATX GATX Corporation | +12.4% | 25.1% |
| CSX CSX Corporation | +8.3% | 23.3% |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | +7.1% | 22.9% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | +5.3% | 24.8% |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | +4.0% | 24.1% |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | +4.0% | 32.8% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | +1.0% | 37.7% |
| CNI This pageCanadian National Railway Company | +0.6% | 21.9% |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | +0.5% | 35.7% |
Has CNI consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares CNI with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than CNI helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- Three of the nine popular alternatives, UNP, CSX and WAB, outperformed CNI in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- UNP outperformed CNI in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- CP outperformed CNI over all three long-term periods but in none of the five short-term ones, so CNI has had the better of it lately.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than CNI over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company (this page) | — | +3.2% | −3.8% | +10.2% | +23.0% | +30.2% | +21.9% | +3.1% | +124% | 21.9% | 0.14 | −29.1% | — | $73B | — |
| UNP QualifiedUnion Pacific Corporation | 4/5 short3/3 longAll-weather | +6.7% | −2.5% | +15.2% | +25.9% | +29.2% | +45.4% | +41.2% | +295% | 22.9% | 0.42 | −38.7% | — | $171B | — |
| CSX QualifiedCSX Corporation | 3/5 short3/3 long | +4.5% | −3.8% | +10.6% | +33.7% | +32.8% | +63.0% | +49.3% | +446% | 23.3% | 0.46 | −40.5% | — | $89B | — |
| WAB QualifiedWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 3/5 short3/3 long | +0.1% | +10.1% | +7.6% | +31.6% | +45.3% | +189% | +212% | +264% | 26.2% | 1.00 | −64.1% | — | $48B | — |
| NSC RailroadsNorfolk Southern Corporation | 2/5 short3/3 long | +5.3% | −2.4% | +7.9% | +14.6% | +13.8% | +72.0% | +29.5% | +328% | 24.8% | 0.33 | −44.4% | — | $73B | — |
| JBHT Integrated Freight & LogisticsJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 1/5 short3/3 long | −4.1% | −22.0% | −9.7% | +15.7% | +37.9% | +32.2% | +21.6% | +220% | 32.8% | 0.28 | −42.4% | — | $21B | — |
| GATX Rental & Leasing ServicesGATX Corporation | 0/5 short3/3 long | −10.4% | −8.9% | −18.9% | −4.3% | −5.1% | +59.5% | +79.2% | +329% | 25.1% | 0.59 | −38.3% | — | $5.7B | — |
| CP RailroadsCanadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 0/5 short3/3 long | +0.8% | −4.5% | +7.4% | +18.1% | +15.1% | +25.6% | +21.6% | +227% | 24.1% | 0.28 | −33.7% | — | $77B | — |
| TFII TruckingTFI International Inc. | 0/5 short2/3 long | −10.9% | −26.1% | −17.4% | +5.8% | +17.6% | −1.6% | +5.2% | +537% | 37.7% | 0.22 | −53.8% | — | $9.2B | — |
| TRN RailroadsTrinity Industries, Inc. | 0/5 short1/3 long | −9.9% | −31.1% | −20.6% | −4.1% | −8.8% | +29.7% | +2.5% | +107% | 35.7% | 0.19 | −45.2% | — | $2.0B | — |
How did CNI do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where CNI ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with CNI and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- CNI finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 17 of its 29 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last three.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, CNI finished in the top quarter in eight of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in two. In 2025, it ranked 8 of 10.
- Among its popular alternatives, JBHT came out ahead of CNI most often, in 18 of the 29 years both traded.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of CNI; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places CNI among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of CNI | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI This pageCanadian National Railway Company | — | −0.1% | −17.5% | +7.8% | −1.4% | +13.7% | +23.6% | +24.3% | −8.6% | +24.4% | +22.8% | −17.6% | +22.6% | +27.3% | +17.9% | +20.3% | +24.4% | +51.4% | −20.1% | +10.9% | +9.2% | +32.6% | +47.4% | +55.3% | −12.3% | +65.5% | +14.8% | +4.3% | +11.6% | +26.8% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 8 of 29 | 8 of 10 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 10 | 4 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 10 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 9 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 9 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 9 | 2 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 12 of 29 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% | +20.4% | +28.7% | +33.5% |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 16 of 29 | +3.9% | −5.1% | +21.6% | −15.9% | +23.3% | +17.6% | +33.7% | +5.3% | +32.3% | +36.0% | −32.9% | +44.5% | +36.3% | +21.2% | +16.7% | +47.6% | +36.6% | −22.7% | +38.3% | +15.8% | +21.8% | −1.3% | +17.9% | +6.5% | +14.0% | +18.7% | −1.5% | −26.8% | +7.0% |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 15 of 29 | +14.2% | −5.6% | +13.5% | −16.6% | +25.7% | +27.1% | +18.0% | +14.5% | +55.5% | +42.1% | −26.7% | +28.4% | +49.3% | −3.9% | −0.2% | +35.7% | +53.2% | −24.9% | +29.6% | +37.0% | +27.9% | +12.4% | +30.5% | −18.6% | +38.2% | −12.8% | −22.5% | −21.1% | +30.6% |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 14 of 29 | +13.2% | +50.1% | +28.0% | +9.1% | +26.5% | −5.2% | +11.5% | −13.3% | −1.4% | +17.3% | −17.9% | +17.3% | +70.1% | +25.4% | +32.4% | +29.7% | +2.8% | +15.6% | +13.5% | +13.1% | +26.5% | +25.4% | +21.8% | +14.6% | +4.9% | −33.5% | −27.2% | −4.5% | +104% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 13 of 29 | +25.7% | +1.6% | −1.6% | −15.6% | +27.3% | +24.8% | +32.4% | +5.2% | +36.8% | +31.5% | −20.3% | +20.8% | +54.2% | −12.7% | +18.8% | +22.8% | +15.2% | −4.8% | +2.2% | +13.8% | +25.6% | +55.3% | +20.2% | +10.4% | +39.5% | −31.8% | −33.5% | +6.6% | +6.6% |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 18 of 29 | +15.2% | −13.8% | +15.6% | −13.9% | +50.6% | +18.1% | +26.8% | −18.4% | +19.6% | +33.8% | −12.0% | +10.1% | +30.2% | +34.2% | +11.8% | +28.2% | +24.8% | −3.4% | +34.4% | −6.9% | +2.1% | +66.5% | +84.3% | +26.4% | +38.0% | +21.6% | −38.9% | +23.8% | +35.7% |
| GATX GATX Corporation | 13 of 29 | +11.1% | +31.1% | +15.2% | +4.2% | +27.9% | +3.2% | +19.7% | +16.6% | +3.8% | +49.8% | −23.8% | +12.7% | +23.6% | +2.0% | +27.7% | +27.4% | −3.0% | −13.1% | −13.4% | +22.7% | +24.9% | +8.9% | +31.0% | −26.5% | −32.6% | +52.6% | −8.1% | +7.3% | +54.3% |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 16 of 29 | +2.6% | −7.8% | +6.8% | +4.5% | +4.7% | +37.4% | +45.1% | −1.8% | +29.4% | +13.0% | −33.3% | +28.3% | +50.5% | +52.7% | +6.5% | +22.2% | +64.1% | −47.1% | +24.2% | +27.5% | +23.9% | +24.6% | +45.2% | +3.5% | +40.6% | +35.6% | +17.3% | −29.0% | +4.1% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 10 of 20 | −21.9% | +0.5% | +37.2% | −9.5% | +120% | +56.2% | +33.5% | +6.7% | −2.3% | +55.8% | −30.8% | +10.7% | +21.1% | +59.6% | +5.2% | +65.0% | +150% | −61.4% | −19.5% | −21.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 10 of 29 | −21.5% | +37.2% | −6.2% | +1.5% | +17.9% | +23.8% | +11.1% | −22.4% | +37.1% | +18.0% | −12.9% | +3.7% | +54.1% | +20.9% | +14.2% | +55.1% | +13.3% | −42.6% | −20.6% | +20.6% | +30.2% | +11.5% | +64.6% | −29.0% | +12.2% | −9.0% | −24.7% | −12.2% | +21.4% |
Risk and diversification
How CNI has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were CNI's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents CNI's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1996, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: CNI fell 35.5% from July 1999 to February 2000, while the S&P 500 slipped only 4.5%.
- In three of CNI's five worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- The longest climb back to a previous high took 13 months, after CNI fell 35.1% from September 2014 to January 2016.
Green means CNI fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | CNI fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 financial crisis | −46.7% | −51.5% | May 2008 | Mar 2009 | 10 months | Dec 2009 | 9 months |
| No named crash | −37.1% | −14.0% | Apr 1998 | Oct 1998 | 6 months | May 1999 | 7 months |
| No named crash | −35.5% | −4.5% | Jul 1999 | Feb 2000 | 7 months | Jan 2001 | 11 months |
| 2015 China and oil sell-off | −35.1% | −5.1% | Sep 2014 | Jan 2016 | 16 months | Feb 2017 | 13 months |
| Dot-com bust | −30.6% | −31.4% | Mar 2002 | Oct 2002 | 7 months | Jun 2003 | 8 months |
How did CNI do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far CNI, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- CNI fell less than the S&P 500 in seven of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when CNI fell 30.6% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
- None of its popular alternatives fell less than CNI in most of the crashes they both traded through.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than CNI.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI This pageCanadian National Railway Company | — | −1.3% | −21.0% | −27.3% | −22.1% | −5.1% | −23.9% | −19.3% | −0.5% | −46.7% | −30.6% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 3 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 1 of 10 | −4.2% | −29.8% | −37.5% | −21.9% | −4.8% | −28.7% | −23.4% | −1.5% | −59.5% | −25.6% |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 1 of 10 | −4.0% | −29.4% | −40.5% | −21.4% | −8.7% | −26.5% | −27.4% | −0.9% | −69.2% | −37.5% |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 2 of 10 | −6.4% | −18.9% | −48.3% | −37.9% | −2.9% | −40.5% | −26.1% | −2.4% | −60.8% | −33.7% |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 0 of 10 | −4.0% | −28.4% | −43.6% | −23.8% | −5.6% | −31.7% | −21.1% | −2.1% | −62.9% | −39.9% |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 2 of 10 | −5.5% | −28.8% | −31.5% | −26.6% | −3.0% | −18.8% | −24.8% | −2.4% | −53.1% | −50.9% |
| GATX GATX Corporation | 0 of 10 | −5.8% | −31.9% | −31.7% | −22.7% | −5.1% | −29.1% | −24.0% | −2.3% | −72.1% | −64.7% |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 2 of 10 | −3.0% | −19.9% | −32.9% | −24.4% | −4.3% | −35.1% | −29.8% | −0.4% | −65.4% | −35.7% |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 1 of 9 | −5.7% | −34.4% | −52.5% | −32.9% | −4.1% | −30.9% | −39.4% | −2.5% | −81.3% | — |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 0 of 10 | −11.7% | −38.5% | −34.4% | −30.8% | −5.4% | −32.8% | −43.3% | −4.6% | −83.9% | −45.9% |
How closely does CNI move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares CNI with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Eight of the nine popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than CNI's 0.77, led by GATX, CSX and TFII.
- Over the past 10 years, CNI captured 80% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 105% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.89. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than CNI's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI This pageCanadian National Railway Company | 80% | 105% | 0.77 | 0.89 |
| GATX GATX Corporation | 109% | 107% | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 118% | 117% | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| TFII TFI International Inc. | 150% | 159% | 0.94 | 1.58 |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 104% | 119% | 0.87 | 1.05 |
| WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 111% | 127% | 0.87 | 1.28 |
| CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. | 96% | 113% | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Corporation | 123% | 147% | 0.84 | 1.30 |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 109% | 137% | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | 110% | 165% | 0.67 | 1.38 |
What diversifies CNI?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with CNI's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing CNI with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in CNI into GLD would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 16% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+2.7% for CNI alone, +6.2% for the mix).
- FIX made money in five of the seven calendar years in which CNI lost money.
- Among large ETFs, DXJ, SMH and GLD have moved largely independently of CNI over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.42 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which CNI lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% CNI and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2008 | 2002 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company (this page) | 1.00 | +3.1% | 0.14 | −0.1% | −17.5% | −1.4% | −8.6% | −17.6% | −20.1% | −12.3% | 22.2% | +2.7% |
| DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.42 | +225% | 1.34 | +32.8% | +29.8% | +6.0% | −19.8% | +7.7% | −20.8% | — | 18.9% | +7.5% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.42 | +323% | 0.97 | +49.2% | +39.1% | −33.5% | −9.1% | −0.3% | −44.7% | −47.0% | 21.6% | +9.8% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.17 | +126% | 0.96 | +63.7% | +26.7% | −0.8% | −1.9% | −10.7% | +4.9% | — | 18.6% | +6.2% |
| XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.34 | +177% | 0.93 | +7.9% | +5.6% | +64.4% | −18.2% | −21.5% | −39.0% | −14.8% | 20.1% | +7.1% |
| EWT TechnologyiShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | 0.42 | +153% | 0.89 | +28.4% | +16.1% | −28.9% | −9.9% | −12.9% | −45.3% | −24.4% | 20.4% | +6.8% |
| AMLP EnergyAlerian MLP ETF | 0.39 | +111% | 0.89 | +5.8% | +22.8% | +25.5% | −12.6% | −25.7% | — | — | 19.5% | +6.1% |
| EDIV InternationalState Street SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend ETF | 0.46 | +69.9% | 0.84 | +16.4% | +12.8% | −15.3% | −6.2% | −27.4% | — | — | 19.1% | +4.7% |
| PTLC Broad MarketPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF | 0.48 | +57.4% | 0.83 | +5.1% | +24.3% | −8.6% | +1.5% | — | — | — | 18.9% | +4.5% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2025 | 2024 | 2022 | 2018 | 2015 | 2008 | 2002 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNI Canadian National Railway Company (this page) | 1.00 | +3.1% | 0.14 | −0.1% | −17.5% | −1.4% | −8.6% | −17.6% | −20.1% | −12.3% | 22.2% | +2.7% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.31 | +479% | 1.55 | +76.3% | +19.0% | +54.1% | −24.5% | +12.6% | −39.6% | −8.3% | 20.0% | +9.7% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.19 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +220% | +215% | +1.3% | −16.3% | −6.0% | −20.5% | −65.1% | 23.0% | +21.7% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.44 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +121% | +107% | +17.0% | +0.8% | +67.7% | −15.2% | −9.4% | 23.1% | +17.6% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.30 | +413% | 1.44 | +44.5% | +23.7% | +51.8% | −28.4% | −4.5% | −40.4% | −27.2% | 19.8% | +9.1% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.29 | +690% | 1.41 | +19.2% | −4.0% | +86.6% | −8.2% | +17.4% | — | — | 20.6% | +11.6% |
Common questions
What was CNI's worst drawdown?
CNI's deepest decline since it began trading in 1996 was 46.7%, from May 2008 to March 2009. It took nine months from the low to climb back to its old high.
What were CNI's best and worst years?
Over 29 full calendar years, CNI's best year was 2001, when it returned 65.5%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -20.1%.
Is there a better investment than CNI?
Among CNI's popular alternatives, UNP and CSX earned more than CNI over the past 5 years with similar volatility: UNP returned 7.1% a year at 22.9% volatility, against 0.6% a year at 21.9%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, BRK-B (insurance) and CB (property & casualty insurance) earned more than CNI with less volatility over the past 5 years. BRK-B returned 13.4% a year at 17.1% volatility, against 0.6% a year at 21.9%.
Is CNI more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. CNI's volatility over the past 5 years was 21.9%, 1.3 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CNI's return lands within 21.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is CNI's Sharpe ratio?
CNI's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.14, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CNI earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is CNI with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, CNI's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.68 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CNI instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CNI holding.
What are the best alternatives to CNI?
Of the nine popular alternatives we compared, three outperformed CNI in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: UNP, CSX and WAB.
Did CNI outperform the S&P 500?
CNI finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 17 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -0.1%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did CNI do in stock market crashes?
CNI fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in seven of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in three. The clearest case was the dot-com bust, when CNI fell 30.6% and the S&P 500 fell 47.5%.
What diversifies CNI?
These had a low correlation with CNI over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, DXJ (correlation 0.42), SMH (correlation 0.42) and GLD (correlation 0.17); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.31), CLS (correlation 0.19) and FIX (correlation 0.44). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than CNI's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of CNI's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.
More research
Popular alternatives to CNI
UNPUnion Pacific
CSXCSX
WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies
NSCNorfolk Southern
CPCanadian Pacific Kansas City