Relative Intelligence · Automobiles
How Toyota Motor (TM) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives
Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on TM alone. It places TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) against 18 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where TM stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.
Period covered: TM's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.
Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.
On this page12 sections
Key findings
- Right nowTM has gone against the market, falling 7.1% over the past 6 months while the S&P 500 rose 9.1%. Its automobile peers split over the past 6 months: RACE (Ferrari) rose 8.6%, while STLA (Stellantis) fell 50.2%. Consistency ↓
- Stock or market?TM's 12.0% gain over the past 3 months far outran its industry: the consumer discretionary sector ETF XLY (State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF) rose 1.0%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Its automobile peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: HMC (Honda Motor) rose 21.6%, while TSLA (Tesla) rose 1.1%.
- Past 1 to 3 yearsOver the past year, TM rose 1.5% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (24.1% against 89.3%). TM finished behind the S&P 500 in both 2024 and 2025. By year ↓
- Long termTM turned $10,000 into $22,900 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. Growth of $10,000 ↓
- In a crashIn the 2022 bear market, TM fell 36.8%, against 24.5% for the S&P 500. That was more than HMC (Honda Motor, 29.9%) but less than TSLA (Tesla, 45.4%). Crash tests ↓
- DiversificationTM is some diversification, but not a hedge: a correlation of 0.37 with the S&P 500 over 5 years and 0.36 with the total US market, less closely than 55% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Over 10 years, TM's beta versus the S&P 500 was 0.56: 62% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 72% of its losses in falling ones. Market capture ↓
- Better options
- Popular alternatives
- GM (General Motors), BWA (BorgWarner) and ALV (Autoliv) were ahead of TM in most short and long periods.
- Nearby categories and themes
- ECL (Ecolab, specialty chemicals) earned more than TM with less volatility over the past 5 years: 6.7% a year at 24.1% volatility, against 5.0% a year at 27.0%.
- Whole market
- 741 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TM with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them VTI (Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF), VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) and BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway).
How much would $10,000 in TM have grown?
This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in TM over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of TM over the same span and TM's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.
- $10,000 invested in TM at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $55,911 by September 2026, less than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of TM, and SHW finished highest, at $512,273.
Choose a period
From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 716 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TM; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- SHW$512,273+5,023% total · +14.5% a year
- NEU$344,538+3,345% total · +13.0% a year
- ECL$316,339+3,063% total · +12.6% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
- BWA$132,696+1,227% total · +9.3% a year
- ALV$71,358+614% total · +7.0% a year
- TM$55,911+459% total · +6.1% a year
- HMC$33,757+238% total · +4.3% a year
- F$18,497+85.0% total · +2.1% a year
- GT$973−90.3% total · −7.7% a year
From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 2,155 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of TM; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.
- NEU$29,325+193% total · +24.0% a year
- RACE$19,540+95.4% total · +14.3% a year
- SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
- BWA$16,951+69.5% total · +11.1% a year
- GM$15,245+52.4% total · +8.8% a year
- ALV$15,067+50.7% total · +8.5% a year
- ECL$13,921+39.2% total · +6.8% a year
- TSLA$13,726+37.3% total · +6.5% a year
- HMC$12,319+23.2% total · +4.3% a year
- TM$11,911+19.1% total · +3.6% a year
TM at a glance
This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.
- TM's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 60.2%, from April 2000 to April 2003. It took about three years from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, TM's best was 1999, when it returned 84.4%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 36.6%. It lost money in ten of those years.
- TM is 18.2% below its all-time high.
The company
- Market value
- $234B
- Industry
- Auto - Manufacturers
- Price history from
- October 1986
Returns
- Past 1 year
- +1.5%total return
- Past 3 years
- +24.1%+7.5% a year
- Past 5 years
- +27.8%+5.0% a year
- Past 10 years
- +129%+8.6% a year
- Best calendar year
- +84.4%1999
- Worst calendar year
- −36.6%2008
- Losing years
- 10 of 29full calendar years
Risk
- Volatility
- 27.0%typical yearly swing, 5 years
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.32return per unit of risk, 5 years
- Worst decline ever
- −60.2%Apr 2000 to Apr 2003
- From its all-time high
- −18.2%below the peak
TM against the whole market
Where TM ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.
How does TM rank among all stocks?
This section ranks TM on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how TM stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.
- TM's worst decline of the past 10 years ranks in the top 4% of the 2,187 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top fell the least.
Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.
| Measure | TM | Rank | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-year return | +1.5% | 1,927 of 3,287 | bottom 42% |
| 3-year return | +24.1% | 1,950 of 3,017 | bottom 36% |
| 5-year return | +27.8% | 1,362 of 2,893 | top 47% |
| 10-year return | +129% | 1,188 of 2,202 | bottom 47% |
| Volatility, 5 years | 27.0% | 482 of 2,893 | top 17% |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.32 | 1,491 of 2,893 | bottom 49% |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −36.8% | 83 of 2,187 | top 4% |
What has beaten TM on both return and risk?
Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). TM sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than TM with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.
- 178 stocks and 563 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than TM over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 20% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half TM's swings, CAH has the best return for its risk: 42.1% a year at 24.7% volatility, 8% less than TM's 27.0%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.55 against 0.32 for TM.
- None of TM's popular alternatives made it, but ECL (specialty chemicals) did: 6.7% a year at 24.1% volatility, 11% less than TM's 27.0%.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to TM; faint dots are 93 more of the 741 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.
- Popular alternatives
- Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
- The whole market
- Others in the green region
Is there a better investment than TM?
Investments that beat TM over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.
- Among TM's popular alternatives, GM, BWA and ALV were ahead of TM in most short and long periods.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, ECL (specialty chemicals) earned more than TM with less volatility over the past 5 years: 6.7% a year at 24.1% volatility, against 5.0% a year at 27.0%.
- Across the whole market, 741 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TM with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them VTI, VOO and BRK-B.
How this works
The table below lists investments that beat TM over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks TM's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than TM follows the table.
Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than TM's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× TM's volatility counts as better.
These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than TM's.
| Investment | Why it is better | Past 5 years | Downside | Long run | Fit | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return?higher is better | Volatility?lower is calmer | Sharpe?return per unit of risk | Worst decline?past 10 years | 10Y returntotal | Corr. with TM?lower diversifies more | Expenseper year | |||
| TMToyota Motor Corporation · this page | +5.0% | 27.0% | 0.32 | −36.8% | +129% | 1.00 | — | ||
 SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500 | +12.7% | 17.1% | 0.79 | −33.7% | +321% | 0.37 | 0.09% | ||
| Popular alternativesbest 3 shownThe investments people most often weigh against TM. 3 of 17 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 GMGeneral Motors Company · Automobiles | Higher return in most periods | +6.9% | 36.7% | 0.36 | −59.9% | +193% | 0.48 | — | |
BWABorgWarner Inc. · Auto Parts | Higher return in most periods | +9.3% | 34.6% | 0.43 | −64.6% | +121% | 0.27 | — | |
ALVAutoliv, Inc. · Auto Parts | Higher return in most periods | +7.3% | 32.1% | 0.38 | −63.1% | +111% | 0.45 | — | |
| Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Automobiles and the categories next to it (Auto Parts, Specialty Chemicals), plus TM's specific themes. 6 of 21 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 ECLEcolab Inc. · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods | +6.7% | 24.1% | 0.39 | −43.7% | +176% | 0.32 | — | |
NEUNewMarket Corporation · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +21.0% | 26.8% | 0.85 | −40.7% | +165% | 0.28 | — | |
 SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return in most periods | +3.1% | 27.1% | 0.25 | −42.5% | +300% | 0.28 | — | |
DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return in most periods | +9.8% | 30.0% | 0.46 | −73.0% | +65.8% | 0.31 | — | |
SXTSensient Technologies Corporation · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return in most periods | +9.3% | 30.3% | 0.44 | −50.6% | +133% | 0.10 | — | |
BCPCBalchem Corp · Specialty Chemicals | Higher return in most periods | +2.7% | 24.1% | 0.23 | −36.7% | +140% | 0.22 | — | |
| The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 1,408 of 3,595 passed at least one test. | |||||||||
 BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. · Insurance | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.34 | — | |
 JNJJohnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.16 | — | |
BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · Crypto | On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +6.3% | 3.3% | 1.85 | −4.9% | — | 0.31 | 0.69% | |
 COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation · Discount Retail | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.4% | 22.9% | 0.82 | −31.4% | +685% | 0.29 | — | |
 NVSNovartis AG · Pharmaceuticals | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.22 | — | |
 GLDSPDR Gold Shares · Gold | Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes | +17.7% | 18.9% | 0.96 | −26.4% | +213% | 0.27 | 0.40% | |
 AAPLApple Inc. · Computer Hardware | Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods | +18.5% | 28.0% | 0.75 | −38.5% | +1,168% | 0.30 | — | |
JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds | On the frontierSimilar return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.20 | 0.20% | |
What these numbers mean for TM
- Annual return
- TM returned 5.0% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $12,800. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
- Volatility
- TM's volatility over the past 5 years was 27.0%, 1.6 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TM's return lands within 27.0% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
- Sharpe ratio
- TM's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.32, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so TM earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
- Worst decline
- TM's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 36.8%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 36.8% fall takes a 58.3% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
- Correlation
- Over the past 5 years, TM's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.37 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TM instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TM holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 741 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than TM with less volatility
Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.
| # | Investment | Found in | Annual return | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline | 10Y return | Corr. with TM | Expense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. · Insurance | Whole market | +13.4% | 17.1% | 0.82 | −29.6% | +274% | 0.34 | — |
| 2 | JNJJohnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals | Whole market | +12.7% | 17.9% | 0.76 | −27.4% | +196% | 0.16 | — |
| 3 | BALTInnovator Defined Wealth Shield ETF · Crypto | Whole market | +6.3% | 3.3% | 1.85 | −4.9% | — | 0.31 | 0.69% |
| 4 | COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation · Discount Retail | Whole market | +17.4% | 22.9% | 0.82 | −31.4% | +685% | 0.29 | — |
| 5 | NVSNovartis AG · Pharmaceuticals | Whole market | +17.1% | 20.7% | 0.87 | −26.8% | +226% | 0.22 | — |
| 6 |  AMGNAmgen Inc. · Biotechnology | Whole market | +19.6% | 24.9% | 0.85 | −24.9% | +266% | 0.16 | — |
| 7 |  GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. · Biotechnology | Whole market | +22.8% | 24.9% | 0.95 | −30.5% | +200% | 0.11 | — |
| 8 |  PGRThe Progressive Corporation · Property & Casualty Insurance | Whole market | +21.3% | 25.6% | 0.89 | −30.3% | +816% | 0.04 | — |
| 9 |  VIGVanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF · US Dividend Equity | Whole market | +10.4% | 14.1% | 0.78 | −31.7% | +258% | 0.35 | 0.04% |
| 10 |  MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation · Food & Beverages | Whole market | +17.2% | 24.9% | 0.77 | −30.4% | +285% | 0.17 | — |
| 11 |  DFACDimensional - US Core Equity 2 ETF · US Total Market | Whole market | +11.4% | 17.0% | 0.72 | −23.1% | — | 0.35 | 0.21% |
| 12 | PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.5% | 8.6% | 1.20 | −18.2% | — | 0.37 | 0.79% |
| 13 |  WMWaste Management, Inc. · Environmental Services | Whole market | +9.3% | 19.2% | 0.56 | −30.1% | +344% | 0.18 | — |
| 14 | FJANFT Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - January · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +11.1% | 10.5% | 1.05 | −13.6% | — | 0.44 | 0.85% |
| 15 |  FASTFastenal Company · Industrial Distribution | Whole market | +15.8% | 24.6% | 0.72 | −30.7% | +576% | 0.20 | — |
| 16 |  CLColgate-Palmolive Company · Household & Personal Products | Whole market | +7.2% | 19.2% | 0.46 | −29.0% | +68.8% | 0.23 | — |
| 17 |  JEPIJPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +7.5% | 11.0% | 0.71 | −13.7% | — | 0.36 | 0.35% |
| 18 |  EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +12.0% | 18.8% | 0.70 | −30.9% | +114% | 0.03 | — |
| 19 |  XLVState Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF · Health Care Equity | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.3% | 0.60 | −28.4% | +202% | 0.25 | 0.08% |
| 20 | CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications | Whole market | +7.7% | 13.3% | 0.63 | −23.8% | +101% | 0.00 | — |
| 21 | SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF · US Momentum Equity | Whole market | +18.7% | 20.8% | 0.93 | −30.9% | +499% | 0.17 | 0.13% |
| 22 | DFIVDimensional - International Value ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +14.8% | 16.4% | 0.93 | −25.4% | — | 0.48 | 0.27% |
| 23 | AVLVAvantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +14.0% | 16.9% | 0.86 | −19.5% | — | 0.37 | 0.15% |
| 24 | HYGHiShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF · Bonds | Whole market | +6.6% | 7.1% | 0.94 | −23.9% | +74.5% | 0.34 | 1.12% |
| 25 | OEFiShares S&P 100 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity | Whole market | +14.3% | 17.8% | 0.84 | −31.4% | +367% | 0.37 | 0.20% |
| 26 | DFATDimensional - US Targeted Value ETF · US Small-Cap Equity | Whole market | +9.6% | 21.0% | 0.54 | −26.1% | — | 0.26 | 0.33% |
| 27 | SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF · US Quality Equity | Whole market | +12.0% | 16.7% | 0.76 | −31.6% | +300% | 0.34 | 0.20% |
| 28 | AEEAmeren Corporation · Electric Utilities | Whole market | +7.9% | 19.4% | 0.49 | −29.1% | +192% | 0.08 | — |
| 29 | DTMDT Midstream, Inc. · Oil & Gas Midstream | Whole market | +24.5% | 25.2% | 1.00 | −23.6% | — | 0.16 | — |
| 30 | DFAIDimensional - International Core Equity Market ETF · Developed International Equity | Whole market | +9.7% | 16.0% | 0.66 | −27.4% | — | 0.46 | 0.18% |
| 31 | BUFRFT Vest Laddered Buffer ETF · Buffered Equity | Whole market | +9.9% | 10.5% | 0.96 | −13.7% | — | 0.40 | 0.10% |
| 32 |  RYRoyal Bank of Canada · Banks | Whole market | +17.3% | 18.2% | 0.97 | −40.0% | +352% | 0.20 | — |
| 33 | IOOiShares Global 100 ETF · Global Equity | Whole market | +15.7% | 17.2% | 0.94 | −31.4% | +361% | 0.44 | 0.40% |
| 34 | DIVOAmplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +11.1% | 11.9% | 0.95 | −30.0% | — | 0.35 | 0.56% |
| 35 | XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF · Consumer Staples | Whole market | +7.2% | 13.8% | 0.57 | −24.5% | +121% | 0.33 | 0.08% |
| 36 |  CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution | Whole market | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.18 | — |
| 37 | JAVAJPMorgan Active Value ETF · US Large-Cap Value | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.5% | 0.82 | −16.5% | — | — | 0.44% |
| 38 | ACTEnact Holdings Inc. · Insurance | Whole market | +20.5% | 24.3% | 0.89 | −20.2% | — | 0.10 | — |
| 39 | GLDSPDR Gold Shares · Gold | Whole market | +17.7% | 18.9% | 0.96 | −26.4% | +213% | 0.27 | 0.40% |
| 40 | QYLDGlobal X - Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF · Equity Income | Whole market | +8.4% | 15.0% | 0.62 | −24.7% | +156% | 0.29 | 0.60% |
| 41 | DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +9.8% | 12.4% | 0.82 | −20.4% | — | -0.05 | 0.85% |
| 42 | TSPAT. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +13.1% | 17.1% | 0.81 | −24.7% | — | 0.37 | 0.34% |
| 43 | EFAViShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +7.6% | 11.9% | 0.68 | −27.6% | +97.7% | 0.41 | 0.20% |
| 44 |  MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream | Whole market | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | 0.23 | — |
| 45 | IDMOInvesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +13.3% | 18.2% | 0.78 | −31.3% | +229% | 0.45 | 0.25% |
| 46 | GARPiShares MSCI USA Quality GARP ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +17.5% | 22.5% | 0.83 | −31.4% | — | 0.33 | 0.15% |
| 47 | FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.4% | 0.99 | −20.6% | +158% | 0.42 | 0.95% |
| 48 | PTLCPacer Trendpilot US Large Cap ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.5% | 11.8% | 0.83 | −26.6% | +188% | 0.19 | 0.60% |
| 49 | SPUSSP Funds S&P 500 Sharia Industry Exclusions ETF · Technology | Whole market | +15.0% | 19.5% | 0.82 | −30.8% | — | 0.36 | 0.45% |
| 50 | DIVIFranklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF · International | Whole market | +13.4% | 15.5% | 0.89 | −27.7% | +184% | 0.44 | 0.09% |
| 51 | AORiShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF · Multi-Asset | Whole market | +6.4% | 10.7% | 0.64 | −23.0% | +118% | 0.39 | 0.20% |
| 52 | PECOPhillips Edison & Co. · Retail REITs | Whole market | +7.4% | 22.3% | 0.43 | −23.1% | — | 0.26 | — |
| 53 | ACWViShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF · International | Whole market | +6.3% | 10.3% | 0.65 | −28.8% | +116% | 0.38 | 0.20% |
| 54 | ACIOAptus Collared Income Opportunity ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.3% | 11.1% | 0.86 | −14.2% | — | 0.33 | 0.79% |
| 55 | SCHYSchwab International Dividend Equity ETF · International | Whole market | +9.5% | 13.3% | 0.75 | −24.0% | — | 0.42 | 0.08% |
| 56 | FHLCFidelity MSCI Health Care Index ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +7.3% | 15.4% | 0.53 | −28.8% | +199% | 0.23 | 0.08% |
| 57 | IHDGWisdomTree International Hedged Quality Dividend Growth Fund · International | Whole market | +7.6% | 14.9% | 0.57 | −29.2% | +163% | 0.45 | 0.58% |
| 58 | INFLHorizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +11.8% | 17.8% | 0.72 | −21.3% | — | 0.30 | 0.85% |
| 59 |  JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. · Banks | Whole market | +17.3% | 24.3% | 0.78 | −43.6% | +537% | 0.20 | — |
| 60 | TDVGT. Rowe Price Dividend Growth ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +9.6% | 13.8% | 0.73 | −19.2% | — | 0.35 | 0.50% |
| 61 |  ABBVAbbVie Inc. · Pharmaceuticals | Whole market | +26.1% | 23.4% | 1.11 | −45.1% | +603% | 0.06 | — |
| 62 | DBJPXtrackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity ETF · International | Whole market | +20.9% | 19.2% | 1.09 | −31.3% | +348% | 0.56 | 0.45% |
| 63 | BBMCJPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Mid Cap Equity ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +7.2% | 20.5% | 0.44 | −30.1% | — | 0.29 | 0.07% |
| 64 | PPHVanEck Pharmaceutical ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +11.6% | 15.8% | 0.78 | −29.7% | +153% | 0.37 | 0.36% |
| 65 | PTNQPacer Trendpilot 100 ETF · Technology | Whole market | +9.7% | 14.1% | 0.73 | −28.1% | +305% | 0.18 | 0.65% |
| 66 | FTQIFirst Trust Nasdaq BuyWrite Income ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +11.5% | 14.8% | 0.82 | −19.4% | +121% | 0.33 | 0.75% |
| 67 | AVESAvantis Emerging Markets Value ETF · International | Whole market | +8.0% | 17.4% | 0.53 | −27.4% | — | 0.37 | 0.36% |
| 68 | FLSPFranklin Systematic Style Premia ETF · Alternatives | Whole market | +8.4% | 13.4% | 0.68 | −22.9% | — | 0.23 | 0.65% |
| 69 | NTSXWisdomTree U.S. Efficient Core Fund · Alternatives | Whole market | +8.2% | 17.2% | 0.55 | −31.4% | — | 0.35 | 0.20% |
| 70 | SMIGBahl & Gaynor Small/Mid Cap Income Growth ETF · Dividend & Income | Whole market | +6.5% | 16.0% | 0.48 | −19.7% | — | 0.26 | 0.60% |
| 71 | SIXHETC 6 Meridian Hedged Equity Index Option ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +10.2% | 10.2% | 1.00 | −11.7% | — | 0.30 | 0.31% |
| 72 |  VVisa Inc. · Payment Processing | Whole market | +12.8% | 22.9% | 0.64 | −36.4% | +429% | 0.41 | — |
| 73 | DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity | Whole market | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.66 | 0.48% |
| 74 | LVHIFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +17.0% | 11.1% | 1.48 | −32.4% | +194% | 0.54 | 0.40% |
| 75 |  KOThe Coca-Cola Company · Food & Beverages | Whole market | +14.7% | 16.8% | 0.91 | −37.0% | +204% | 0.22 | — |
| 76 |  CVXChevron Corporation · Integrated Oil & Gas | Whole market | +19.5% | 25.2% | 0.84 | −55.8% | +238% | 0.23 | — |
| 77 |  VXUSVanguard Total International Stock ETF · International Equity | Whole market | +8.2% | 16.4% | 0.57 | −36.0% | +140% | 0.42 | 0.05% |
| 78 | CMDYiShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF · Commodities | Whole market | +9.5% | 15.7% | 0.66 | −31.2% | — | 0.19 | 0.29% |
| 79 |  QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 · US Large-Cap Growth | Whole market | +14.5% | 23.0% | 0.71 | −35.1% | +553% | 0.27 | 0.18% |
| 80 |  MAMastercard Incorporated · Payment Processing | Whole market | +12.4% | 23.8% | 0.61 | −41.0% | +541% | 0.51 | — |
| 81 |  PMPhilip Morris International Inc. · Tobacco | Whole market | +21.0% | 23.4% | 0.94 | −42.9% | +242% | 0.13 | — |
| 82 | PSTLPostal Realty Trust, Inc. · REIT - Office | Whole market | +9.2% | 23.0% | 0.50 | −29.9% | — | 0.10 | — |
| 83 | RSPHInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF · Healthcare | Whole market | +6.1% | 16.8% | 0.44 | −30.4% | +177% | 0.31 | 0.40% |
| 84 |  SHELShell plc · Integrated Oil & Gas | Whole market | +21.0% | 24.8% | 0.90 | −67.2% | +233% | 0.20 | — |
| 85 |  MCKMcKesson Corporation · Health Care Distribution | Whole market | +38.7% | 25.0% | 1.44 | −38.1% | +586% | 0.25 | — |
| 86 |  MRKMerck & Co., Inc. · Pharmaceuticals | Whole market | +16.3% | 24.8% | 0.74 | −43.4% | +241% | 0.20 | — |
| 87 | LGHHCM Defender 500 Index ETF · Broad Market | Whole market | +9.4% | 16.7% | 0.63 | −29.6% | — | 0.29 | 1.00% |
| 88 | DGICADonegal Group Inc. · Insurance - Property & Casualty | Whole market | +9.9% | 23.5% | 0.52 | −30.3% | +78.9% | -0.09 | — |
| 89 |  WELLWelltower Inc. · Healthcare REITs | Whole market | +26.0% | 23.8% | 1.09 | −63.3% | +379% | 0.18 | — |
| 90 |  RTXRTX Corporation · Aerospace & Defense | Whole market | +18.6% | 24.3% | 0.83 | −52.0% | +317% | 0.08 | — |
| 91 |  WMTWalmart Inc. · Discount Retail | Whole market | +20.8% | 22.6% | 0.96 | −25.7% | +508% | 0.21 | — |
| 92 |  TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank · Banks | Whole market | +15.8% | 20.0% | 0.84 | −42.0% | +310% | 0.15 | — |
| 93 |  LINLinde plc · Chemicals | Whole market | +11.5% | 20.9% | 0.63 | −32.6% | +394% | 0.25 | — |
| 94 |  BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c. · Tobacco | Whole market | +18.7% | 22.0% | 0.90 | −56.1% | +98.2% | 0.15 | — |
| 95 |  CBChubb Limited · Property & Casualty Insurance | Whole market | +15.7% | 20.4% | 0.82 | −42.6% | +248% | 0.19 | — |
| 96 |  MOAltria Group, Inc. · Tobacco | Whole market | +17.8% | 21.4% | 0.88 | −53.7% | +140% | 0.09 | — |
| 97 |  BNYBank of New York Mellon Corp · Banks | Whole market | +22.7% | 24.4% | 0.97 | −50.5% | +341% | 0.22 | — |
| 98 |  WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. · Oil & Gas Midstream | Whole market | +24.6% | 24.0% | 1.04 | −68.1% | +288% | 0.22 | — |
| 99 |  CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce · Banks | Whole market | +19.2% | 21.6% | 0.93 | −47.3% | +395% | 0.29 | — |
| 100 |  TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. · Property & Casualty Insurance | Whole market | +22.4% | 22.3% | 1.02 | −46.3% | +347% | 0.17 | — |
TM against its popular alternatives
The investments people most often weigh against TM, compared period by period and year by year.
How do TM's risk and return compare with its alternatives?
This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at TM, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.
- None of the 17 popular alternatives earned more than TM over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- 11 of the 17 popular alternatives earned less than TM over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, TM returned 5.0% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (27.0% against 17.1%).
Green points earned more than TM with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.
All figures
| Investment | Annual return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | +13.3% | 30.0% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +12.7% | 17.1% |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | +9.3% | 34.6% |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | +7.3% | 32.1% |
| GM General Motors Company | +6.9% | 36.7% |
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | +6.1% | 27.5% |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +5.3% | 60.0% |
| TM This pageToyota Motor Corporation | +5.0% | 27.0% |
| F Ford Motor Company | +0.6% | 39.2% |
| LEA Lear Corporation | −5.0% | 34.3% |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | −17.5% | 62.1% |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | −21.2% | 42.6% |
| VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | −21.7% | 147% |
| APTV Aptiv PLC | −23.2% | 41.4% |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. | −25.4% | 77.8% |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | −26.5% | 51.5% |
| NIO NIO Inc. | −38.8% | 70.9% |
| LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | −57.7% | 84.2% |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | −58.4% | 81.8% |
Has TM consistently beaten its popular alternatives?
This section compares TM with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than TM helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.
- Three of the 18 popular alternatives, GM, BWA and ALV, outperformed TM in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- TSLA outperformed TM over all three long-term periods but in only one of the five short-term ones, so TM has had the better of it lately.
A green cell means the alternative earned more than TM over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.
| Investment | Periods outperformed | Short term | Long term | Risk · 5 years | Fund | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | Volatilitylower is calmer | Sharpehigher is better | Worst declinepast 10 years | Expense | Assets | Overlapsame sectors | ||
| TM Toyota Motor Corporation (this page) | — | +3.8% | +12.0% | −7.1% | −6.8% | +1.5% | +24.1% | +27.8% | +129% | 27.0% | 0.32 | −36.8% | — | $234B | — |
| GM QualifiedGeneral Motors Company | 3/5 short3/3 long | −8.2% | +1.9% | −3.9% | −4.2% | +34.0% | +168% | +39.5% | +193% | 36.7% | 0.36 | −59.9% | — | $68B | — |
| BWA QualifiedBorgWarner Inc. | 3/5 short2/3 long | −7.5% | −4.7% | +5.6% | +26.6% | +37.9% | +57.7% | +55.9% | +121% | 34.6% | 0.43 | −64.6% | — | $12B | — |
| ALV QualifiedAutoliv, Inc. | 3/5 short2/3 long | −0.4% | +0.8% | −1.9% | −1.7% | +2.7% | +32.1% | +42.4% | +111% | 32.1% | 0.38 | −63.1% | — | $8.6B | — |
| RACE Auto - ManufacturersFerrari N.V. | 2/5 short3/3 long | −3.8% | +7.7% | +8.6% | +8.9% | +1.6% | +36.1% | +86.6% | +711% | 30.0% | 0.57 | −39.2% | — | $70B | — |
| TSLA Auto - ManufacturersTesla, Inc. | 1/5 short3/3 long | −0.4% | +1.1% | −4.8% | −14.7% | −16.5% | +76.3% | +29.5% | +2,716% | 60.0% | 0.39 | −73.6% | — | $1.5T | — |
| HMC Auto - ManufacturersHonda Motor Co., Ltd. | 5/5 short1/3 long | +5.3% | +21.6% | +35.1% | +17.4% | +12.4% | +17.7% | +34.5% | +63.3% | 27.5% | 0.35 | −42.0% | — | $44B | — |
| F Auto - ManufacturersFord Motor Company | 3/5 short1/3 long | −7.8% | −12.2% | −3.5% | −5.9% | +6.0% | +25.9% | +3.0% | +71.8% | 39.2% | 0.21 | −64.7% | — | $48B | — |
| LEA Auto - PartsLear Corporation | 3/5 short0/3 long | −0.2% | −13.9% | −5.8% | +3.0% | +24.2% | −1.9% | −22.5% | +26.2% | 34.3% | 0.02 | −64.5% | — | $5.9B | — |
| STLA Auto - ManufacturersStellantis N.V. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −10.0% | −24.7% | −50.2% | −62.1% | −59.5% | −73.3% | −69.7% | +39.2% | 42.6% | -0.35 | −83.1% | — | $13B | — |
| APTV Auto - PartsAptiv PLC | 0/5 short0/3 long | +3.4% | −21.4% | −25.9% | −42.6% | −46.0% | −51.0% | −73.3% | −10.6% | 41.4% | -0.43 | −75.8% | — | $9.4B | — |
| GT Auto - PartsThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 0/5 short0/3 long | −15.5% | −41.4% | −41.3% | −52.5% | −39.8% | −65.5% | −78.5% | −85.4% | 51.5% | -0.34 | −87.8% | — | $1.2B | — |
| LCID Auto - ManufacturersLucid Group, Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −24.0% | −54.0% | −51.6% | −70.7% | −83.6% | −92.4% | −98.7% | — | 84.2% | -0.62 | −99.5% | — | $1.0B | — |
| LI Auto - ManufacturersLi Auto Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | +3.6% | −3.6% | −36.2% | −30.8% | −47.0% | −62.6% | −61.8% | — | 62.1% | 0.00 | −77.1% | — | $12B | — |
| NIO Auto - ManufacturersNIO Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −6.5% | −28.7% | −48.5% | −33.3% | −51.4% | −54.7% | −91.4% | — | 70.9% | -0.34 | −95.0% | — | $8.3B | — |
| PSNY Auto - ManufacturersPolestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | 0/5 short0/3 long | −51.7% | −75.7% | −80.1% | −81.0% | −85.1% | −94.7% | −98.8% | — | 81.8% | -0.67 | −99.3% | — | $616M | — |
| RIVN Auto - ManufacturersRivian Automotive, Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −19.1% | −27.9% | −26.5% | −36.0% | −5.0% | −25.7% | — | — | — | — | −95.1% | — | $18B | — |
| VFS Auto - ManufacturersVinFast Auto Ltd. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −15.1% | −8.0% | −34.0% | −15.1% | −12.5% | −46.7% | −70.6% | — | 147% | 0.26 | −97.1% | — | $6.7B | — |
| XPEV Auto - ManufacturersXPeng Inc. | 0/5 short0/3 long | −5.3% | −24.9% | −44.3% | −51.5% | −53.8% | −26.2% | −76.9% | — | 77.8% | 0.00 | −91.1% | — | $9.4B | — |
How did TM do year by year?
This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where TM ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with TM and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.
- Among its popular alternatives, RACE came out ahead of TM most often, in eight of the ten years both traded.
- TM finished ahead of the S&P 500 in ten of its 29 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last two.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, TM finished in the top quarter in seven of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in five. In 2025, it ranked 10 of 19.
Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of TM; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places TM among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.
| Investment | Years ahead of TM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM This pageToyota Motor Corporation | — | +13.8% | +8.8% | +38.2% | −24.4% | +23.2% | +13.6% | +24.9% | −5.8% | +12.1% | −1.5% | +0.9% | +5.9% | +33.7% | +43.6% | −14.5% | −5.3% | +30.8% | −36.6% | −19.4% | +30.6% | +29.9% | +20.6% | +31.4% | +5.0% | −18.5% | −35.0% | +84.4% | −6.6% | +0.4% |
| Rank among alternatives | Top quarter in 7 of 29 | 10 of 19 | 4 of 19 | 9 of 19 | 7 of 19 | 7 of 16 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 13 | 3 of 12 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 17 of 29 | +17.7% | +24.9% | +26.2% | −18.2% | +28.7% | +18.3% | +31.2% | −4.6% | +21.7% | +12.0% | +1.2% | +13.5% | +32.3% | +16.0% | +1.9% | +15.1% | +26.4% | −36.8% | +5.1% | +15.9% | +4.8% | +10.7% | +28.2% | −21.6% | −11.7% | −9.8% | +20.4% | +28.7% | +33.5% |
| GM General Motors Company | 8 of 15 | +54.2% | +49.8% | +8.0% | −42.4% | +40.8% | +15.2% | +14.0% | −15.0% | +22.5% | +7.4% | +1.5% | −11.6% | +41.8% | +42.2% | −45.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | 15 of 29 | +43.9% | −10.2% | +2.6% | −9.2% | +18.4% | −9.2% | +27.1% | −31.0% | +31.2% | −7.3% | −20.5% | −0.8% | +56.9% | +12.4% | −11.9% | +118% | +53.7% | −54.5% | +65.5% | −1.6% | +13.2% | +28.5% | +70.9% | −2.5% | +31.7% | +0.6% | −26.6% | +8.4% | +37.2% |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | 15 of 28 | +30.3% | −12.7% | +48.0% | −23.5% | +14.5% | +11.2% | +24.3% | −21.6% | +14.8% | −7.3% | +19.9% | +18.1% | +39.7% | +30.1% | −30.4% | +83.9% | +104% | −57.5% | −10.3% | +36.1% | −3.5% | +30.6% | +83.4% | +5.2% | +30.6% | −44.6% | −20.4% | +15.0% | — |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | 8 of 10 | −12.3% | +26.3% | +59.1% | −16.7% | +13.3% | +39.7% | +67.9% | −4.5% | +80.3% | +22.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 10 of 15 | +11.4% | +62.5% | +102% | −65.0% | +49.8% | +743% | +25.7% | +6.9% | +45.7% | −10.9% | +7.9% | +47.9% | +344% | +18.9% | +6.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 12 of 29 | +7.7% | −3.8% | +39.8% | −16.6% | +4.0% | +2.9% | +11.0% | −19.8% | +20.2% | −5.8% | +9.5% | −27.3% | +15.8% | +23.9% | −20.8% | +18.5% | +59.8% | −34.4% | −14.4% | +39.2% | +12.5% | +17.0% | +25.6% | −10.8% | +10.9% | −3.0% | +15.2% | −9.2% | +30.7% |
| F Ford Motor Company | 10 of 29 | +42.3% | −13.1% | +15.9% | −42.2% | +137% | −3.9% | +29.7% | −34.4% | +8.8% | −8.0% | −5.4% | +3.7% | +22.4% | +22.6% | −35.9% | +68.0% | +336% | −66.0% | −10.2% | −0.3% | −45.2% | −5.9% | +78.6% | −39.0% | −30.1% | −17.7% | −9.2% | +81.2% | +50.6% |
| LEA Lear Corporation | 8 of 16 | +24.9% | −31.2% | +16.4% | −30.7% | +16.2% | +16.9% | +14.4% | −29.3% | +35.2% | +8.9% | +26.4% | +22.2% | +74.7% | +19.3% | −18.5% | +45.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | 9 of 16 | −9.2% | −40.2% | +79.0% | −18.2% | +21.9% | +35.0% | +17.8% | −18.9% | +95.3% | −0.4% | +20.8% | +42.7% | +60.5% | +12.5% | −49.5% | +36.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| APTV Aptiv PLC | 9 of 14 | +25.8% | −32.6% | −3.7% | −43.5% | +26.6% | +37.5% | +55.9% | −27.1% | +57.6% | −20.1% | +19.3% | +22.7% | +59.4% | +77.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 12 of 29 | −2.7% | −37.1% | +41.1% | −52.4% | +95.4% | −29.1% | −20.8% | −35.4% | +6.1% | −4.5% | +15.3% | +20.9% | +73.1% | −2.5% | +19.6% | −16.0% | +136% | −78.8% | +34.4% | +20.8% | +18.5% | +86.6% | +15.3% | −70.3% | +8.0% | −13.4% | −43.0% | −19.1% | +26.3% |
| LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | 1 of 5 | −65.0% | −28.3% | −38.4% | −82.0% | +280% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | 1 of 5 | −29.4% | −35.9% | +83.5% | −36.4% | +11.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIO NIO Inc. | 2 of 7 | +17.0% | −51.9% | −7.0% | −69.2% | −35.0% | +1,112% | −36.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | 0 of 4 | −32.2% | −53.5% | −57.4% | −54.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | 1 of 4 | +48.2% | −43.3% | +27.3% | −82.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | 1 of 4 | −17.1% | −51.8% | −16.3% | +3.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. | 2 of 5 | +71.6% | −19.0% | +46.8% | −80.3% | +17.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Risk and diversification
How TM has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.
What were TM's worst declines?
A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents TM's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.
- In all four of TM's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: TM fell 36.3% from October 1997 to September 1998, while the S&P 500 rose 9.3%.
- The slowest recovery came after TM fell 56.1% from January 2007 to March 2009; it did not regain that peak until May 2013, four years later.
Green means TM fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.
| During | TM fell | S&P 500, same dates | Peak | Low | Time to the low | Back at the peak | Time to recover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dot-com bust | −60.2% | −37.5% | Apr 2000 | Apr 2003 | 3 years | Dec 2005 | 2.7 years |
| 2008 financial crisis | −56.1% | −49.9% | Jan 2007 | Mar 2009 | 2.2 years | May 2013 | 4.2 years |
| No named crash | −54.6% | — | Jul 1988 | Mar 1992 | 3.7 years | May 1994 | 2.2 years |
| 2022 bear market | −36.8% | −22.2% | Jan 2022 | Sep 2022 | 8 months | Jan 2024 | 16 months |
| No named crash | −36.3% | +9.3% | Oct 1997 | Sep 1998 | 11 months | Jun 1999 | 9 months |
How did TM do in stock market crashes?
This section measures how far TM, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.
- Among its popular alternatives, VFS held up best, falling less than TM in all two crashes they both traded through.
- TM fell less than the S&P 500 in six of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when TM fell 22.0% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.
Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than TM.
| Investment | Held up better | 2023 regional bank crisisMar 2023 | 2022 bear marketJan 2022 | Covid crashFeb 2020 | Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018 | February 2018 volatility shockFeb 2018 | 2015 China and oil sell-offAug 2015 | 2011 euro debt crisisJul 2011 | 2010 flash crashMay 2010 | 2008 financial crisisOct 2007 | Dot-com bustMar 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM This pageToyota Motor Corporation | — | −1.9% | −36.8% | −22.0% | −11.1% | −3.4% | −18.7% | −21.2% | −0.3% | −48.9% | −56.4% |
| SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 4 of 10 | −3.4% | −24.5% | −33.7% | −19.3% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −17.9% | −1.5% | −55.2% | −47.5% |
| GM General Motors Company | 0 of 7 | −10.1% | −53.0% | −51.8% | −14.9% | −3.9% | −25.5% | −34.4% | — | — | — |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | 2 of 10 | −7.4% | −36.2% | −43.6% | −26.3% | −5.5% | −41.3% | −29.7% | −6.3% | −72.1% | −42.2% |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | 1 of 10 | −6.0% | −37.0% | −47.6% | −24.7% | −4.7% | −25.0% | −32.7% | −4.0% | −79.8% | −52.3% |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | 0 of 5 | −3.6% | −36.9% | −27.8% | −31.8% | −5.9% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 0 of 7 | −5.0% | −45.4% | −60.6% | −21.6% | −10.0% | −45.6% | −25.1% | — | — | — |
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 2 of 10 | −3.1% | −29.9% | −27.3% | −16.8% | −4.9% | −29.4% | −29.7% | −0.9% | −50.5% | −40.4% |
| F Ford Motor Company | 0 of 10 | −7.3% | −55.6% | −50.0% | −21.1% | −4.5% | −25.7% | −29.6% | −2.4% | −86.3% | −75.5% |
| LEA Lear Corporation | 0 of 8 | −5.3% | −37.0% | −43.5% | −26.2% | −4.0% | −24.7% | −24.9% | −2.2% | — | — |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | 0 of 8 | −6.2% | −42.6% | −52.2% | −22.4% | −5.8% | −45.9% | −52.2% | — | −86.9% | — |
| APTV Aptiv PLC | 0 of 6 | −5.7% | −55.1% | −63.2% | −33.4% | −6.0% | −35.7% | — | — | — | — |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 0 of 10 | −10.9% | −58.2% | −60.1% | −20.9% | −12.7% | −24.6% | −47.6% | −5.2% | −88.7% | −76.7% |
| LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | 0 of 2 | −6.0% | −72.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LI Li Auto Inc. | 0 of 2 | −4.1% | −53.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIO NIO Inc. | 0 of 4 | −7.3% | −59.9% | −46.1% | −31.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | 0 of 2 | −11.2% | −61.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | 0 of 2 | −9.3% | −79.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | 2 of 2 | −0.3% | −1.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XPEV XPeng Inc. | 0 of 2 | −3.1% | −81.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
How closely does TM move with the S&P 500?
Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares TM with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.
- Over the past 10 years, TM captured 62% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 72% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.56. Its share of the market's losses was slightly larger than its share of the gains.
- Only RACE and TSLA had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than TM's 0.86, out of 11 popular alternatives with the same record.
- RACE took just 56% of the S&P 500's losses, against 72% for TM, while still keeping 101% of its gains.
Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than TM's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.
| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Capture ratio | Beta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM This pageToyota Motor Corporation | 62% | 72% | 0.86 | 0.56 |
| RACE Ferrari N.V. | 101% | 56% | 1.79 | 0.92 |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | 182% | 129% | 1.40 | 1.91 |
| GM General Motors Company | 107% | 135% | 0.79 | 1.31 |
| HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 51% | 71% | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| BWA BorgWarner Inc. | 109% | 157% | 0.70 | 1.31 |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | 109% | 169% | 0.65 | 1.60 |
| F Ford Motor Company | 105% | 167% | 0.63 | 1.51 |
| STLA Stellantis N.V. | 124% | 215% | 0.58 | 1.61 |
| LEA Lear Corporation | 91% | 165% | 0.55 | 1.40 |
| APTV Aptiv PLC | 106% | 219% | 0.48 | 1.80 |
| GT The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 77% | 263% | 0.29 | 1.63 |
What diversifies TM?
Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with TM's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing TM with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.
- Moving a fifth of the money in TM into EMLP would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 17% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+3.6% for TM alone, +6.4% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, EMLP, HDV and SMH have moved largely independently of TM over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.34 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- MCK made money in seven of the ten calendar years in which TM lost money.
Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which TM lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% TM and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.
ETFs
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2022 | 2018 | 2016 | 2011 | 2010 | 2008 | 2007 | 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM Toyota Motor Corporation (this page) | 1.00 | +27.8% | 0.32 | −24.4% | −5.8% | −1.5% | −14.5% | −5.3% | −36.6% | −19.4% | −18.5% | −35.0% | −6.6% | 25.3% | +3.6% |
| EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.20 | +101% | 1.04 | +10.4% | −8.7% | +29.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.0% | +6.4% |
| HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.34 | +83.3% | 1.00 | +7.1% | −3.0% | +15.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | +5.7% |
| SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.20 | +323% | 0.97 | −33.5% | −9.1% | +35.6% | +6.8% | +19.0% | −44.7% | +6.0% | −14.6% | — | — | 22.6% | +10.9% |
| GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares | 0.27 | +126% | 0.96 | −0.8% | −1.9% | +8.0% | +9.6% | +29.3% | +4.9% | +30.4% | — | — | — | 21.4% | +6.9% |
| SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.17 | +136% | 0.93 | −10.4% | −0.9% | +7.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | +7.7% |
| XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.26 | +177% | 0.93 | +64.4% | −18.2% | +28.0% | +2.8% | +21.9% | −39.0% | +36.8% | −18.2% | +24.4% | — | 22.1% | +8.0% |
| DFIV InternationalDimensional - International Value ETF | 0.48 | +99.4% | 0.93 | −3.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.9% | +6.3% |
| VTV Broad MarketVanguard Morningstar Value ETF | 0.32 | +76.6% | 0.90 | −2.1% | −5.5% | +17.1% | +1.1% | +14.5% | −35.9% | −0.1% | — | — | — | 21.3% | +5.8% |
Stocks
| Investment | Correlation | 5Y return | Sharpe | 2022 | 2018 | 2016 | 2011 | 2010 | 2008 | 2007 | 2001 | 2000 | 1998 | 80/20 mix volatility | 80/20 mix annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TM Toyota Motor Corporation (this page) | 1.00 | +27.8% | 0.32 | −24.4% | −5.8% | −1.5% | −14.5% | −5.3% | −36.6% | −19.4% | −18.5% | −35.0% | −6.6% | 25.3% | +3.6% |
| CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc. | 0.18 | +479% | 1.55 | +54.1% | −24.5% | −17.5% | +8.1% | +21.4% | −39.6% | −9.8% | −2.5% | +108% | +51.7% | 21.8% | +10.6% |
| CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc. | 0.19 | +3,143% | 1.47 | +1.3% | −16.3% | +7.4% | −24.4% | +2.8% | −20.5% | −25.7% | −25.6% | −2.3% | — | 25.2% | +22.6% |
| FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.21 | +1,636% | 1.46 | +17.0% | +0.8% | +18.3% | −17.0% | +8.7% | −15.2% | +2.1% | +73.7% | −71.1% | −9.5% | 23.8% | +18.8% |
| MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation | 0.25 | +413% | 1.44 | +51.8% | −28.4% | −28.3% | +11.8% | +13.8% | −40.4% | +29.7% | +4.9% | +61.2% | +46.9% | 22.1% | +9.9% |
| MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 0.23 | +690% | 1.41 | +86.6% | −8.2% | +0.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | +12.5% |
Common questions
What was TM's worst drawdown?
TM's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 60.2%, from April 2000 to April 2003. It took about three years from the low to climb back to its old high.
What were TM's best and worst years?
Over 29 full calendar years, TM's best year was 1999, when it returned 84.4%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -36.6%.
Is there a better investment than TM?
Among TM's popular alternatives, GM, BWA and ALV were ahead of TM in most short and long periods. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, ECL (specialty chemicals) earned more than TM with less volatility over the past 5 years: 6.7% a year at 24.1% volatility, against 5.0% a year at 27.0%.
Is TM more volatile than the S&P 500?
Yes. TM's volatility over the past 5 years was 27.0%, 1.6 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TM's return lands within 27.0% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.
What is TM's Sharpe ratio?
TM's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.32, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so TM earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.
How correlated is TM with the S&P 500?
Over the past 5 years, TM's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.37 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TM instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TM holding.
What are the best alternatives to TM?
Of the 18 popular alternatives we compared, three outperformed TM in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: GM, BWA and ALV.
Did TM outperform the S&P 500?
TM finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in ten of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +13.8%, against +17.7% for the index.
How did TM do in stock market crashes?
TM fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in six of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in four. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when TM fell 22.0% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.
What diversifies TM?
These had a low correlation with TM over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, EMLP (correlation 0.20), HDV (correlation 0.34) and SMH (correlation 0.20); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.18), CLS (correlation 0.19) and FIX (correlation 0.21). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.
How we measure
- Short-term periods are 1M, 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y; long-term periods are 3Y, 5Y, 10Y. An investment outperformed in a period when its total return, with dividends reinvested, was higher than TM's. Returns within 0.5 points or 3% of TM's, whichever is larger, count as a tie.
- "Qualified" means outperforming in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods. "All-weather" means outperforming in every long-term period and all but one short-term period.
- Popular alternatives are the funds and stocks most often compared with this one. We include only those that trade today, are not leveraged or inverse, and hold at least $200 million.
- Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns over 5 years, a measure of how much the price typically swings in a year. The Sharpe ratio is the return above cash for each unit of that volatility.
- A decline, or drawdown, runs from a peak to the lowest close before the next high. The worst decline ever uses all the price history we have; comparisons between funds use the past 10 years so that younger funds are judged on the same stretch.
- Sector overlap is the share of assets two funds hold in the same sectors. Correlation and the mixed-portfolio figures use monthly returns.
- Upside and downside capture follow Morningstar's definition: the compound monthly return in the months the S&P 500 rose (or fell), divided by the S&P 500's compound return in those months. Beta measures how strongly monthly returns have moved with the S&P 500. All three use the same window for every investment.
- Figures are computed from daily adjusted prices and update after each trading day. Past performance does not predict future results.
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