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Relative Intelligence · Biotechnology

How Moderna (MRNA) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on MRNA alone. It places MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) against 19 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where MRNA stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: MRNA's full trading record, from December 2018 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against MRNA →Chart MRNA vs. 19 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in MRNA have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in MRNA over the past 7 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of MRNA over the same span and MRNA's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Note: MRNA began trading on December 7, 2018, so the chart cannot reach back to the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs. It covers the most recent 7 years of MRNA's record, starting at the end of September 2019.

Choose a period

From the end of September 2019 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 53 of the 3,144 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of MRNA; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$5,000$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000$200,000$500,00020192020202120222023202420252026$10,000$100,0002019202120232025
  • NVDA$528,672+5,187% total · +76.3% a year
  • CLS$504,080+4,941% total · +75.1% a year
  • FIX$388,188+3,782% total · +68.7% a year
  • MU$254,900+2,449% total · +58.8% a year
  • AVGO$150,215+1,402% total · +47.3% a year
  • MRNA$120,962+1,110% total · +42.8% a year
  • EXEL$33,036+230% total · +18.6% a year
  • VRTX$30,858+209% total · +17.5% a year
  • GILD$30,462+205% total · +17.2% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$28,402+184% total · +16.1% a year
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From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 3,249 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of MRNA; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$1,000$2,000$5,000$10,000$20,000202120222023202420252026$1,000$2,000$5,000$10,000$20,000202120222023202420252026
  • VRTX$28,822+188% total · +23.6% a year
  • EXEL$27,629+176% total · +22.5% a year
  • GILD$25,496+155% total · +20.6% a year
  • AMGN$23,160+132% total · +18.3% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
  • INCY$17,643+76.4% total · +12.0% a year
  • GSK$15,444+54.4% total · +9.1% a year
  • IONS$13,313+33.1% total · +5.9% a year
  • REGN$12,649+26.5% total · +4.8% a year
  • MRNA$5,004−50.0% total · −12.9% a year
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MRNA at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

Note: MRNA began trading on December 7, 2018, so every figure here, including its worst decline, covers only the time since then. None of them reflect the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs.

The company

Market value
$97B
Industry
Biotechnology
Price history from
December 2018

Returns

Past 1 year
+789%total return
Past 3 years
+201%+44.4% a year
Past 5 years
−27.3%−6.2% a year
Best calendar year
+434%2020
Worst calendar year
−58.2%2024
Losing years
4 of 7full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
104%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
0.30return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−95.4%Aug 2021 to Nov 2025
From its all-time high
−50.0%below the peak

MRNA against the whole market

Where MRNA ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does MRNA rank among all stocks?

This section ranks MRNA on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how MRNA stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasureMRNARankStanding
1-year return+789%2 of 3,287top 1%
3-year return+201%403 of 3,017top 13%
5-year return−27.3%2,105 of 2,893bottom 28%
Volatility, 5 years104%2,803 of 2,893bottom 4%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years0.301,540 of 2,893bottom 48%

What has beaten MRNA on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). MRNA sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than MRNA with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to MRNA; faint dots are 86 more of the 2,890 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,634 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than MRNACOST: +17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%FLRT: +6.0% a year, volatility 2.3%GLD: +17.7% a year, volatility 18.9%PGR: +21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%FLOT: +4.5% a year, volatility 1.8%COR: +24.2% a year, volatility 22.8%VTIP: +2.7% a year, volatility 2.9%MNST: +17.2% a year, volatility 24.9%EP-PC: +5.2% a year, volatility 8.9%JAAA: +5.1% a year, volatility 1.7%RY: +17.3% a year, volatility 18.2%MPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%PBR-A: +51.8% a year, volatility 37.5%PJUL: +10.5% a year, volatility 8.6%NVDA: +58.0% a year, volatility 51.9%CIEN: +45.2% a year, volatility 52.6%NEAR: +3.9% a year, volatility 1.4%VCSH: +2.3% a year, volatility 2.9%CL: +7.2% a year, volatility 19.2%VNLA: +4.0% a year, volatility 1.1%HWM: +47.3% a year, volatility 32.5%NOC: +7.6% a year, volatility 26.1%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%KEYS: +13.9% a year, volatility 34.5%FLRN: +4.5% a year, volatility 1.7%FLTR: +4.8% a year, volatility 2.1%AAPL: +18.5% a year, volatility 28.0%SHY: +1.8% a year, volatility 2.0%FNV: +12.5% a year, volatility 31.3%FIX: +77.0% a year, volatility 46.7%CHT: +7.7% a year, volatility 13.3%FLDR: +3.9% a year, volatility 1.2%GOOG: +19.0% a year, volatility 32.0%KR: +12.3% a year, volatility 27.3%UI: +14.4% a year, volatility 49.2%MPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%HYGH: +6.6% a year, volatility 7.1%AVGO: +48.3% a year, volatility 44.5%RAVI: +3.8% a year, volatility 1.4%TSM: +31.5% a year, volatility 38.5%PKG: +15.4% a year, volatility 25.8%USHY: +3.6% a year, volatility 7.4%EWJ: +9.2% a year, volatility 18.8%VTI: +11.5% a year, volatility 17.5%MU: +68.1% a year, volatility 57.1%SUB: +1.4% a year, volatility 1.7%USTB: +3.6% a year, volatility 2.0%VOO: +12.8% a year, volatility 16.9%BKLN: +5.4% a year, volatility 4.5%ATI: +61.8% a year, volatility 42.9%MUSA: +26.1% a year, volatility 31.2%FN: +29.2% a year, volatility 57.1%LMBS: +3.0% a year, volatility 2.6%SRLN: +4.7% a year, volatility 3.9%XLP: +7.2% a year, volatility 13.8%CHRW: +9.9% a year, volatility 34.4%FCFS: +20.6% a year, volatility 30.5%NEU: +21.0% a year, volatility 26.8%BRK-B: +13.4% a year, volatility 17.1%AZN: +8.7% a year, volatility 35.7%META: +15.5% a year, volatility 45.4%CRS: +63.9% a year, volatility 46.5%BJ: +11.9% a year, volatility 32.5%XOM: +27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%FTSL: +5.0% a year, volatility 3.4%TRMD: +54.3% a year, volatility 45.9%FSS: +23.3% a year, volatility 31.7%AMD: +35.7% a year, volatility 57.6%PDBC: +11.7% a year, volatility 19.3%QYLD: +8.4% a year, volatility 15.0%JPM: +17.3% a year, volatility 24.3%FLTW: +21.8% a year, volatility 24.3%DVA: +9.0% a year, volatility 38.3%DBMF: +9.8% a year, volatility 12.4%TNK: +50.5% a year, volatility 45.1%DHT: +38.7% a year, volatility 39.0%SFM: +23.8% a year, volatility 40.3%NFG: +9.8% a year, volatility 22.1%CMBT: +25.2% a year, volatility 42.8%VIRT: +20.8% a year, volatility 33.8%USLM: +35.6% a year, volatility 36.1%V: +12.8% a year, volatility 22.9%PLTR: +51.4% a year, volatility 67.0%GE: +36.0% a year, volatility 31.0%FTGC: +12.9% a year, volatility 15.6%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%MRNA: −6.2% a year, volatility 104%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%GILD: +22.8% a year, volatility 24.9%AMGN: +19.6% a year, volatility 24.9%VRTX: +22.6% a year, volatility 29.1%GSK: +9.5% a year, volatility 24.5%INCY: +12.2% a year, volatility 30.1%BMRN: −5.6% a year, volatility 33.0%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%JNJ: +12.7% a year, volatility 17.9%NVS: +17.1% a year, volatility 20.7%MRK: +16.3% a year, volatility 24.8%IBRX: +0.2% a year, volatility 114%CRL: −5.6% a year, volatility 43.9%BIL: +3.7% a year, volatility 0.3%MSFT: +12.5% a year, volatility 28.2%AMZN: +9.0% a year, volatility 36.6%WMT: +20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%HSBC: +33.1% a year, volatility 25.9%VRIG: +4.7% a year, volatility 1.3%SYM: +32.0% a year, volatility 105%ZTO: −6.3% a year, volatility 38.2%CLS: +101% a year, volatility 59.7%MRNASPY (S&P 500)GILDAMGNBMRNLLYJNJIBRXCRLBILAMZNHSBCVRIGSYMCLS−50.0%0.0%50.0%100%150%−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than MRNACOST: +17.4% a year, volatility 22.9%FLRT: +6.0% a year, volatility 2.3%GLD: +17.7% a year, volatility 18.9%PGR: +21.3% a year, volatility 25.6%FLOT: +4.5% a year, volatility 1.8%COR: +24.2% a year, volatility 22.8%VTIP: +2.7% a year, volatility 2.9%MNST: +17.2% a year, volatility 24.9%EP-PC: +5.2% a year, volatility 8.9%JAAA: +5.1% a year, volatility 1.7%RY: +17.3% a year, volatility 18.2%MPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%PBR-A: +51.8% a year, volatility 37.5%PJUL: +10.5% a year, volatility 8.6%NVDA: +58.0% a year, volatility 51.9%CIEN: +45.2% a year, volatility 52.6%NEAR: +3.9% a year, volatility 1.4%VCSH: +2.3% a year, volatility 2.9%CL: +7.2% a year, volatility 19.2%VNLA: +4.0% a year, volatility 1.1%HWM: +47.3% a year, volatility 32.5%NOC: +7.6% a year, volatility 26.1%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%KEYS: +13.9% a year, volatility 34.5%FLRN: +4.5% a year, volatility 1.7%FLTR: +4.8% a year, volatility 2.1%AAPL: +18.5% a year, volatility 28.0%SHY: +1.8% a year, volatility 2.0%FNV: +12.5% a year, volatility 31.3%FIX: +77.0% a year, volatility 46.7%CHT: +7.7% a year, volatility 13.3%FLDR: +3.9% a year, volatility 1.2%GOOG: +19.0% a year, volatility 32.0%KR: +12.3% a year, volatility 27.3%UI: +14.4% a year, volatility 49.2%MPLX: +23.5% a year, volatility 18.8%HYGH: +6.6% a year, volatility 7.1%AVGO: +48.3% a year, volatility 44.5%RAVI: +3.8% a year, volatility 1.4%TSM: +31.5% a year, volatility 38.5%PKG: +15.4% a year, volatility 25.8%USHY: +3.6% a year, volatility 7.4%EWJ: +9.2% a year, volatility 18.8%VTI: +11.5% a year, volatility 17.5%MU: +68.1% a year, volatility 57.1%SUB: +1.4% a year, volatility 1.7%USTB: +3.6% a year, volatility 2.0%VOO: +12.8% a year, volatility 16.9%BKLN: +5.4% a year, volatility 4.5%ATI: +61.8% a year, volatility 42.9%MUSA: +26.1% a year, volatility 31.2%FN: +29.2% a year, volatility 57.1%LMBS: +3.0% a year, volatility 2.6%SRLN: +4.7% a year, volatility 3.9%XLP: +7.2% a year, volatility 13.8%CHRW: +9.9% a year, volatility 34.4%FCFS: +20.6% a year, volatility 30.5%NEU: +21.0% a year, volatility 26.8%BRK-B: +13.4% a year, volatility 17.1%AZN: +8.7% a year, volatility 35.7%META: +15.5% a year, volatility 45.4%CRS: +63.9% a year, volatility 46.5%BJ: +11.9% a year, volatility 32.5%XOM: +27.1% a year, volatility 26.5%FTSL: +5.0% a year, volatility 3.4%TRMD: +54.3% a year, volatility 45.9%FSS: +23.3% a year, volatility 31.7%AMD: +35.7% a year, volatility 57.6%PDBC: +11.7% a year, volatility 19.3%QYLD: +8.4% a year, volatility 15.0%JPM: +17.3% a year, volatility 24.3%FLTW: +21.8% a year, volatility 24.3%DVA: +9.0% a year, volatility 38.3%DBMF: +9.8% a year, volatility 12.4%TNK: +50.5% a year, volatility 45.1%DHT: +38.7% a year, volatility 39.0%SFM: +23.8% a year, volatility 40.3%NFG: +9.8% a year, volatility 22.1%CMBT: +25.2% a year, volatility 42.8%VIRT: +20.8% a year, volatility 33.8%USLM: +35.6% a year, volatility 36.1%V: +12.8% a year, volatility 22.9%PLTR: +51.4% a year, volatility 67.0%GE: +36.0% a year, volatility 31.0%FTGC: +12.9% a year, volatility 15.6%DXJ: +26.6% a year, volatility 19.1%MRNA: −6.2% a year, volatility 104%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%GILD: +22.8% a year, volatility 24.9%AMGN: +19.6% a year, volatility 24.9%VRTX: +22.6% a year, volatility 29.1%GSK: +9.5% a year, volatility 24.5%INCY: +12.2% a year, volatility 30.1%BMRN: −5.6% a year, volatility 33.0%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%JNJ: +12.7% a year, volatility 17.9%NVS: +17.1% a year, volatility 20.7%MRK: +16.3% a year, volatility 24.8%IBRX: +0.2% a year, volatility 114%CRL: −5.6% a year, volatility 43.9%BIL: +3.7% a year, volatility 0.3%MSFT: +12.5% a year, volatility 28.2%AMZN: +9.0% a year, volatility 36.6%WMT: +20.8% a year, volatility 22.6%HSBC: +33.1% a year, volatility 25.9%VRIG: +4.7% a year, volatility 1.3%SYM: +32.0% a year, volatility 105%ZTO: −6.3% a year, volatility 38.2%CLS: +101% a year, volatility 59.7%MRNASPY (S&P 500)GILDAMGNGSKBMRNLLYIBRXBILHSBCSYMZTOCLS
  • Popular alternatives
  • Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
  • The whole market
  • Others in the green region

Is there a better investment than MRNA?

Investments that beat MRNA over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat MRNA over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks MRNA's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than MRNA follows the table.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than MRNA's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× MRNA's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than MRNA's.

Screen the whole market against MRNA for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 21 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years5Y returntotalCorr. with MRNA?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
MRNAModerna, Inc. · this page
−6.2%104%0.30−95.4%−27.3%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+81.7%0.180.09%
Popular alternativesbest 6 shownThe investments people most often weigh against MRNA. 15 of 19 passed at least one test.
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. · Biotechnology
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+22.8%24.9%0.95−30.5%+180%0.26—
AMGNAmgen Inc. · Biotechnology
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+19.6%24.9%0.85−24.9%+145%0.36—
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · Biotechnology
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+22.6%29.1%0.85−41.6%+177%0.31—
GSKGSK plc · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+9.5%24.5%0.49−37.6%+57.2%0.10—
INCYIncyte Corporation · Biotechnology
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+12.2%30.1%0.53−66.5%+77.6%0.22—
BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. · Biotechnology
Similar return, lower volatilitySmaller losses in recent crashes−5.6%33.0%-0.01−62.1%−24.9%0.13—
Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 6 shownEverything else in Biotechnology and the categories next to it (Pharmaceuticals, Life Sciences Tools, Contract Research), plus MRNA's specific themes. 65 of 82 passed at least one test.
LLYEli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+40.7%32.8%1.21−34.5%+451%0.01—
JNJJohnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+12.7%17.9%0.76−27.4%+82.1%0.23—
NVSNovartis AG · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+17.1%20.7%0.87−26.8%+121%0.07—
MRKMerck & Co., Inc. · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+16.3%24.8%0.74−43.4%+113%0.30—
IBRXImmunityBio, Inc. · Biotechnology
Higher return, similar volatility+0.2%114%0.56−97.0%+1.2%0.25—
CRLCharles River Laboratories International, Inc. · Life Sciences Tools
Similar return, lower volatility−5.6%43.9%0.09−78.2%−25.1%0.45—
The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 2,927 of 3,534 passed at least one test.
BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bonds
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+3.7%0.3%14.05−0.2%+19.9%0.010.14%
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation · Software
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+12.5%28.2%0.56−37.1%+80.3%0.02—
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. · E-Commerce
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+9.0%36.6%0.42−56.1%+53.8%-0.05—
WMTWalmart Inc. · Discount Retail
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+20.8%22.6%0.96−25.7%+158%-0.08—
HSBCHSBC Holdings plc · Banks
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+33.1%25.9%1.24−62.3%+318%-0.06—
VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Bonds
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineSmaller losses in recent crashes+4.7%1.3%3.51−13.1%+25.6%0.000.30%
SYMSymbotic Inc. · Industrial Machinery
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline+32.0%105%0.73−72.5%+300%0.04—
ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. · Freight & Logistics
Similar return, lower volatilitySmaller losses in recent crashes−6.3%38.2%0.02−57.1%−27.7%-0.07—
What these numbers mean for MRNA
Annual return
MRNA lost 6.2% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $7,270. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
MRNA's volatility over the past 5 years was 104%, 6.1 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MRNA's return lands within 104% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
MRNA's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.30, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MRNA earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
MRNA's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 95.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 95.4% fall takes a 2,065% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, MRNA's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.18 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MRNA instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MRNA holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 2,890 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than MRNA with less volatility

Out of 3,634 tested over 5 years. The strongest 100 are listed, best first, with funds that hold the same thing listed once.

#InvestmentFound inAnnual returnVolatilitySharpeWorst decline5Y returnCorr. with MRNAExpense
1
BILState Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF · Treasury Bonds
Whole market+3.7%0.3%14.05−0.2%+19.9%0.010.14%
2
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation · Software
Whole market+12.5%28.2%0.56−37.1%+80.3%0.02—
3
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. · E-Commerce
Whole market+9.0%36.6%0.42−56.1%+53.8%-0.05—
4
WMTWalmart Inc. · Discount Retail
Whole market+20.8%22.6%0.96−25.7%+158%-0.08—
5
HSBCHSBC Holdings plc · Banks
Whole market+33.1%25.9%1.24−62.3%+318%-0.06—
6
VRIGInvesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF · Bonds
Whole market+4.7%1.3%3.51−13.1%+25.6%0.000.30%
7
COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation · Discount Retail
Whole market+17.4%22.9%0.82−31.4%+123%0.08—
8
FLRTPacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF · Financials
Whole market+6.0%2.3%2.55−21.0%+33.9%0.040.60%
9
GLDSPDR Gold Shares · Gold
Whole market+17.7%18.9%0.96−26.4%+126%0.190.40%
10
PGRThe Progressive Corporation · Property & Casualty Insurance
Whole market+21.3%25.6%0.89−30.3%+162%-0.08—
11
FLOTiShares Floating Rate Bond ETF · Floating Rate Bonds
Whole market+4.5%1.8%2.48−13.5%+24.5%-0.020.15%
12
CORCencora, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
Whole market+24.2%22.8%1.07−32.4%+195%0.05—
13
VTIPVanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF · Treasury Bonds
Whole market+2.7%2.9%0.94−6.3%+14.0%0.070.03%
14
MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation · Food & Beverages
Whole market+17.2%24.9%0.77−30.4%+121%0.00—
15
EP-PCEl Paso Energy Capital Trust I PFD CV TR SECS · Preferred Stocks
Whole market+5.2%8.9%0.61−25.4%+28.5%-0.01—
16
JAAAJanus Henderson AAA CLO ETF · CLO Bonds
Whole market+5.1%1.7%2.98−2.6%+28.0%0.000.20%
17
RYRoyal Bank of Canada · Banks
Whole market+17.3%18.2%0.97−40.0%+122%0.02—
18
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation · Oil & Gas
Whole market+51.2%33.4%1.41−79.7%+690%0.20—
19
PBR-APetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · Integrated Oil & Gas
Whole market+51.8%37.5%1.31−71.7%+705%0.00—
20
LLYEli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
Same or nearby category+40.7%32.8%1.21−34.5%+451%0.01—
21
PJULInnovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF · Broad Market
Whole market+10.5%8.6%1.20−18.2%+64.4%0.190.79%
22
NVDANVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors
Whole market+58.0%51.9%1.14−66.3%+884%0.19—
23
CIENCiena Corporation · Communications Equipment
Whole market+45.2%52.6%0.97−49.5%+546%0.06—
24
NEARiShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF · Short-Term Bonds
Whole market+3.9%1.4%2.71−9.6%+20.9%0.000.25%
25
VCSHVanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF · Investment Grade Bonds
Whole market+2.3%2.9%0.80−12.9%+12.1%0.150.03%
26
CLColgate-Palmolive Company · Household & Personal Products
Whole market+7.2%19.2%0.46−29.0%+41.8%0.03—
27
VNLAJanus Henderson Short Duration Income ETF · Bonds
Whole market+4.0%1.1%3.77−4.5%+21.8%0.050.25%
28
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
Whole market+47.3%32.5%1.36−68.9%+594%-0.05—
29
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation · Aerospace & Defense
Whole market+7.6%26.1%0.41−37.8%+44.5%0.00—
30
CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
Whole market+42.1%24.7%1.55−46.1%+479%0.02—
31
KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. · Electronic Equipment
Whole market+13.9%34.5%0.55−42.6%+91.9%0.24—
32
FLRNState Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF · Bonds
Whole market+4.5%1.7%2.58−14.7%+24.4%0.010.15%
33
FLTRVanEck IG Floating Rate ETF · Multi-Asset
Whole market+4.8%2.1%2.20−17.8%+26.3%-0.030.14%
34
AAPLApple Inc. · Computer Hardware
Whole market+18.5%28.0%0.75−38.5%+133%0.05—
35
SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF · Treasury Bonds
Whole market+1.8%2.0%0.89−5.7%+9.3%0.100.15%
36
FNVFranco-Nevada Corporation · Gold Mining
Whole market+12.5%31.3%0.53−37.1%+79.9%0.35—
37
FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. · Engineering & Construction
Whole market+77.0%46.7%1.46−49.7%+1,636%0.05—
38
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. · Integrated Telecommunications
Whole market+7.7%13.3%0.63−23.8%+45.1%0.11—
39
FLDRFidelity Low Duration Bond Factor ETF · Bonds
Whole market+3.9%1.2%3.09−12.2%+20.9%0.080.15%
40
GOOGAlphabet Inc. · Internet Services
Whole market+19.0%32.0%0.71−44.6%+138%0.04—
41
KRThe Kroger Co. · Grocery Stores
Whole market+12.3%27.3%0.56−43.8%+78.5%0.01—
42
JNJJohnson & Johnson · Pharmaceuticals
Same or nearby category+12.7%17.9%0.76−27.4%+82.1%0.23—
43
UIUbiquiti Inc. · Communications Equipment
Whole market+14.4%49.2%0.52−72.2%+95.9%0.11—
44
MPLXMPLX Lp · Oil & Gas Midstream
Whole market+23.5%18.8%1.22−75.2%+187%0.01—
45
HYGHiShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond ETF · Bonds
Whole market+6.6%7.1%0.94−23.9%+37.6%0.131.12%
46
CLSCelestica Inc. · Electronics Manufacturing
Whole market+101%59.7%1.47−80.6%+3,143%-0.04—
47
NVSNovartis AG · Pharmaceuticals
Same or nearby category+17.1%20.7%0.87−26.8%+121%0.07—
48
AVGOBroadcom Inc. · Semiconductors
Whole market+48.3%44.5%1.11−48.3%+617%-0.08—
49
RAVINorthern Trust Ultra-Short Fixed Income ETF · Bonds
Whole market+3.8%1.4%2.61−3.7%+20.2%0.050.26%
50
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · Semiconductors
Whole market+31.5%38.5%0.91−56.6%+293%0.24—
51
PKGPackaging Corporation of America · Packaging
Whole market+15.4%25.8%0.69−38.2%+105%-0.03—
52
MRKMerck & Co., Inc. · Pharmaceuticals
Same or nearby category+16.3%24.8%0.74−43.4%+113%0.30—
53
USHYiShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · High Yield Bonds
Whole market+3.6%7.4%0.52−22.4%+19.2%0.180.08%
54
EWJiShares MSCI Japan ETF · International Equity
Whole market+9.2%18.8%0.57−33.1%+55.6%0.320.49%
55
VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF · US Total Market
Whole market+11.5%17.5%0.71−35.0%+72.6%0.190.03%
56
MUMicron Technology, Inc. · Semiconductors
Whole market+68.1%57.1%1.20−57.6%+1,244%0.29—
57
SUBiShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF · Municipal Bonds
Whole market+1.4%1.7%0.85−9.4%+7.3%0.160.07%
58
USTBVictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF · Bonds
Whole market+3.6%2.0%1.73−5.3%+19.1%0.130.34%
59
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF · US Large-Cap Equity
Whole market+12.8%16.9%0.80−34.0%+82.3%0.180.03%
60
BKLNInvesco Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans
Whole market+5.4%4.5%1.19−24.1%+29.8%0.100.67%
61
ATIATI Inc. · Metals & Mining
Whole market+61.8%42.9%1.34−82.4%+1,008%0.09—
62
MUSAMurphy USA Inc. · Convenience Stores
Whole market+26.1%31.2%0.90−35.5%+218%-0.23—
63
FNFabrinet · Electronics Manufacturing
Whole market+29.2%57.1%0.74−52.4%+260%0.11—
64
LMBSFirst Trust Low Duration Opportunities ETF · Mortgage-Backed Securities
Whole market+3.0%2.6%1.14−6.5%+15.8%0.090.66%
65
SRLNState Street Blackstone Senior Loan ETF · Bank Loans
Whole market+4.7%3.9%1.18−22.3%+25.6%0.070.70%
66
XLPState Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF · Consumer Staples
Whole market+7.2%13.8%0.57−24.5%+41.4%0.060.08%
67
CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · Freight & Logistics
Whole market+9.9%34.4%0.45−40.6%+60.0%0.16—
68
FCFSFirstCash Holdings, Inc · Consumer Finance
Whole market+20.6%30.5%0.77−50.2%+155%0.07—
69
NEUNewMarket Corporation · Specialty Chemicals
Whole market+21.0%26.8%0.85−40.7%+159%-0.04—
70
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. · Insurance
Whole market+13.4%17.1%0.82−29.6%+87.8%-0.03—
71
AZNAstraZeneca PLC · Pharmaceuticals
Same or nearby category+8.7%35.7%0.41−28.7%+52.1%0.11—
72
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. · Biotechnology
Popular alternative+22.8%24.9%0.95−30.5%+180%0.26—
73
METAMeta Platforms, Inc. · Internet Services
Whole market+15.5%45.4%0.55−76.7%+106%0.03—
74
CRSCarpenter Technology Corporation · Metals & Mining
Whole market+63.9%46.5%1.30−74.7%+1,082%0.04—
75
BJBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. · Discount Retail
Whole market+11.9%32.5%0.51−38.8%+75.3%-0.01—
76
XOMExxonmobil Holdings Corporation · Integrated Oil & Gas
Whole market+27.1%26.5%1.04−61.0%+232%0.11—
77
FTSLFirst Trust Senior Loan Fund · Bonds
Whole market+5.0%3.4%1.49−22.7%+27.8%0.010.70%
78
AMGNAmgen Inc. · Biotechnology
Popular alternative+19.6%24.9%0.85−24.9%+145%0.36—
79
TRMDTORM plc · Marine Shipping
Whole market+54.3%45.9%1.18−60.6%+776%0.20—
80
FSSFederal Signal Corporation · Industrial Machinery
Whole market+23.3%31.7%0.82−33.0%+185%0.16—
81
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. · Semiconductors
Whole market+35.7%57.6%0.82−65.5%+359%0.17—
82
PDBCInvesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · Broad Commodities
Whole market+11.7%19.3%0.67−40.7%+73.9%0.070.74%
83
QYLDGlobal X - Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF · Equity Income
Whole market+8.4%15.0%0.62−24.7%+49.8%0.330.60%
84
JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. · Banks
Whole market+17.3%24.3%0.78−43.6%+122%0.09—
85
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · Biotechnology
Popular alternative+22.6%29.1%0.85−41.6%+177%0.31—
86
FLTWFranklin FTSE Taiwan ETF · Technology
Whole market+21.8%24.3%0.94−38.0%+168%0.340.19%
87
DVADaVita Inc. · Health Care Facilities
Whole market+9.0%38.3%0.42−51.1%+53.7%-0.17—
88
DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Alternatives
Whole market+9.8%12.4%0.82−20.4%+59.7%0.020.85%
89
TNKTeekay Tankers Ltd. · Marine Shipping
Whole market+50.5%45.1%1.14−63.4%+673%0.14—
90
DHTDHT Holdings, Inc. · Marine Shipping
Whole market+38.7%39.0%1.04−39.7%+413%0.20—
91
SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc. · Grocery Stores
Whole market+23.8%40.3%0.74−65.2%+191%-0.11—
92
NFGNational Fuel Gas Company · Oil & Gas
Whole market+9.8%22.1%0.53−44.3%+59.3%0.05—
93
CMBTCmb.Tech N.V. · Freight & Logistics
Whole market+25.2%42.8%0.74−57.2%+208%0.25—
94
VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc. · Capital Markets
Whole market+20.8%33.8%0.73−56.2%+158%0.19—
95
USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc. · Construction Materials
Whole market+35.6%36.1%1.03−45.9%+359%0.01—
96
VVisa Inc. · Payment Processing
Whole market+12.8%22.9%0.64−36.4%+82.5%0.00—
97
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. · Enterprise Software
Whole market+51.4%67.0%0.95−84.6%+695%0.12—
98
GEGE Aerospace · Aerospace & Defense
Whole market+36.0%31.0%1.15−80.9%+366%0.08—
99
FTGCFirst Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy Fund · Alternatives
Whole market+12.9%15.6%0.86−35.9%+83.4%0.100.98%
100
DXJWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund · International Equity
Whole market+26.6%19.1%1.34−39.1%+225%0.200.48%

MRNA against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against MRNA, compared period by period and year by year.

How do MRNA's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at MRNA, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than MRNA with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%−40.0%−30.0%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityMRNA: −6.2% a year, volatility 104%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%EXEL: 24.4% a year, volatility 35.8%GILD: 22.8% a year, volatility 24.9%VRTX: 22.6% a year, volatility 29.1%AMGN: 19.6% a year, volatility 24.9%INCY: 12.2% a year, volatility 30.1%GSK: 9.5% a year, volatility 24.5%IONS: 8.3% a year, volatility 43.9%REGN: 7.7% a year, volatility 31.1%TMO: 2.9% a year, volatility 27.8%ALNY: 2.5% a year, volatility 50.9%SNY: 0.6% a year, volatility 25.3%PFE: −1.7% a year, volatility 25.4%BIIB: −1.8% a year, volatility 34.7%DHR: −3.8% a year, volatility 29.1%BMRN: −5.6% a year, volatility 33.0%NVAX: −39.1% a year, volatility 105%BNTX: −19.3% a year, volatility 52.6%SRPT: −24.8% a year, volatility 70.3%OCGN: −37.9% a year, volatility 89.4%MRNASPY (S&P 500)EXELGILDAMGNGSKIONSREGNTMOALNYSNYPFEBIIBBMRNNVAXBNTXSRPTOCGN0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%−40.0%−20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityMRNA: −6.2% a year, volatility 104%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%EXEL: 24.4% a year, volatility 35.8%GILD: 22.8% a year, volatility 24.9%VRTX: 22.6% a year, volatility 29.1%AMGN: 19.6% a year, volatility 24.9%INCY: 12.2% a year, volatility 30.1%GSK: 9.5% a year, volatility 24.5%IONS: 8.3% a year, volatility 43.9%REGN: 7.7% a year, volatility 31.1%TMO: 2.9% a year, volatility 27.8%ALNY: 2.5% a year, volatility 50.9%SNY: 0.6% a year, volatility 25.3%PFE: −1.7% a year, volatility 25.4%BIIB: −1.8% a year, volatility 34.7%DHR: −3.8% a year, volatility 29.1%BMRN: −5.6% a year, volatility 33.0%NVAX: −39.1% a year, volatility 105%BNTX: −19.3% a year, volatility 52.6%SRPT: −24.8% a year, volatility 70.3%OCGN: −37.9% a year, volatility 89.4%MRNASPY (S&P 500)EXELGILDAMGNIONSREGNTMOALNYSNYPFEBIIBDHRBMRNNVAXBNTXSRPTOCGN
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
EXEL Exelixis, Inc.+24.4%35.8%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.+22.8%24.9%
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated+22.6%29.1%
AMGN Amgen Inc.+19.6%24.9%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
INCY Incyte Corporation+12.2%30.1%
GSK GSK plc+9.5%24.5%
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.+8.3%43.9%
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.+7.7%31.1%
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.+2.9%27.8%
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.+2.5%50.9%
SNY Sanofi+0.6%25.3%
PFE Pfizer Inc.−1.7%25.4%
BIIB Biogen Inc.−1.8%34.7%
DHR Danaher Corporation−3.8%29.1%
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.−5.6%33.0%
MRNA This pageModerna, Inc.−6.2%104%
BNTX BioNTech SE−19.3%52.6%
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.−24.8%70.3%
OCGN Ocugen, Inc.−37.9%89.4%
NVAX Novavax, Inc.−39.1%105%
Open these 21 in EasyCompare

Has MRNA consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares MRNA with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over seven periods from one month to five years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than MRNA helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than MRNA over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 2 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
MRNA Moderna, Inc. (this page)—+40.0%+307%+343%+684%+789%+201%−27.3%104%0.30−95.4%—$97B—
EXEL BiotechnologyExelixis, Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+12.5%+16.0%+47.6%+47.8%+86.4%+205%+198%35.8%0.79−57.2%—$16B—
GILD Drug Manufacturers - GeneralGilead Sciences, Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+4.0%+18.2%+16.6%+31.0%+30.3%+121%+180%24.9%0.95−30.5%—$194B—
VRTX BiotechnologyVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated0/5 short1/2 long+0.8%+7.1%+17.2%+13.8%+22.8%+42.2%+177%29.1%0.85−41.6%—$130B—
AMGN Drug Manufacturers - GeneralAmgen Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+11.6%+21.2%+27.0%+36.7%+48.7%+72.2%+145%24.9%0.85−24.9%—$237B—
INCY BiotechnologyIncyte Corporation0/5 short1/2 long−6.4%+0.8%+20.3%+15.0%+35.3%+112%+77.6%30.1%0.53−66.5%—$24B—
GSK Drug Manufacturers - GeneralGSK plc0/5 short1/2 long−0.9%+2.1%−10.1%+4.7%+18.9%+60.0%+57.2%24.5%0.49−37.6%—$102B—
IONS BiotechnologyIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+1.1%−14.3%−39.4%−43.0%−38.3%−1.6%+48.8%43.9%0.40−70.4%—$7.5B—
REGN BiotechnologyRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+1.2%+20.3%+8.0%+4.4%+40.7%+0.8%+44.9%31.1%0.40−59.7%—$83B—
TMO Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+4.3%+30.7%+30.9%+16.3%+26.8%+49.5%+15.1%27.8%0.24−40.9%—$254B—
ALNY BiotechnologyAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.0/5 short1/2 long−5.6%−15.4%−25.8%−42.3%−53.0%+42.6%+13.2%50.9%0.29−58.2%—$31B—
SNY Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSanofi0/5 short1/2 long−2.6%−5.9%−10.3%−10.7%−13.4%−10.0%+3.0%25.3%0.15−33.5%—$99B—
PFE Drug Manufacturers - GeneralPfizer Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+8.5%+23.8%+13.2%+25.7%+30.5%+19.2%−8.3%25.4%0.06−58.9%—$172B—
BIIB Drug Manufacturers - GeneralBiogen Inc.0/5 short1/2 long+11.0%+21.6%+32.6%+36.7%+65.8%−5.6%−8.8%34.7%0.11−72.7%—$36B—
DHR Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchDanaher Corporation0/5 short1/2 long+4.0%+11.6%+15.0%−2.2%+8.3%+10.8%−17.6%29.1%0.01−43.8%—$157B—
BMRN BiotechnologyBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.0/5 short1/2 long−11.9%−4.5%+2.8%−5.1%+6.3%−31.3%−24.9%33.0%-0.01−62.1%—$11B—
BNTX BiotechnologyBioNTech SE0/5 short0/2 long−7.0%−1.1%−13.3%−5.7%−15.5%+0.3%−65.7%52.6%-0.15−82.3%—$23B—
SRPT BiotechnologySarepta Therapeutics, Inc.0/5 short0/2 long−4.8%+13.9%−10.5%−10.0%−16.8%−82.8%−76.0%70.3%-0.03−93.3%—$2.0B—
OCGN BiotechnologyOcugen, Inc.0/5 short0/2 long−21.1%−38.9%−56.1%−41.1%−49.8%+103%−90.7%89.4%-0.09−99.9%—$276M—
NVAX BiotechnologyNovavax, Inc.0/5 short0/2 long+9.8%+45.1%+31.8%+60.3%+30.0%+77.8%−91.6%105%0.01−98.8%—$1.9B—
Open these 20 in EasyCompare

How did MRNA do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2019, along with where MRNA ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with MRNA and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Note: MRNA began trading on December 7, 2018, so the table starts with 2019, its first full calendar year, and cannot show how it fared during the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of MRNA; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places MRNA among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of MRNA2025202420232022202120202019
MRNA This pageModerna, Inc.—−29.1%−58.2%−44.6%−29.3%+143%+434%+28.1%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 2 of 719 of 2020 of 2018 of 2017 of 203 of 202 of 207 of 19
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF5 of 7+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%
EXEL Exelixis, Inc.4 of 7+31.6%+38.8%+49.6%−12.3%−8.9%+13.9%−10.4%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.4 of 7+36.6%+18.7%−2.0%+23.6%+29.9%−6.7%+7.9%
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated5 of 7+12.6%−1.0%+40.9%+31.5%−7.1%+7.9%+32.1%
AMGN Amgen Inc.4 of 7+29.7%−6.8%+13.5%+20.4%+0.9%−2.0%+27.6%
INCY Incyte Corporation5 of 7+43.0%+10.0%−21.8%+9.4%−15.6%−0.4%+37.3%
GSK GSK plc5 of 7+51.3%−5.2%+9.8%−16.8%+27.1%−17.7%+29.2%
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.4 of 7+126%−30.9%+33.9%+24.1%−46.2%−6.4%+11.8%
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.4 of 7+9.0%−18.9%+21.7%+14.2%+30.7%+28.7%+0.5%
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.5 of 7+11.8%−1.7%−3.4%−17.3%+43.5%+43.7%+45.6%
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.5 of 7+69.0%+22.9%−19.5%+40.1%+30.5%+12.8%+58.0%
SNY Sanofi4 of 7+4.9%+1.1%+6.5%+0.5%+7.0%+0.4%+20.5%
PFE Pfizer Inc.4 of 7+0.6%−2.2%−41.3%−10.4%+66.7%+3.4%−6.7%
BIIB Biogen Inc.4 of 7+15.1%−40.9%−6.6%+15.4%−2.0%−17.5%−1.4%
DHR Danaher Corporation5 of 7+0.4%−0.4%−1.2%−19.0%+48.6%+45.4%+49.5%
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.4 of 7−9.6%−31.8%−6.8%+17.1%+0.8%+3.7%−0.7%
BNTX BioNTech SE4 of 6−16.4%+8.0%−29.7%−41.0%+216%+141%—
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.3 of 7−82.3%+26.1%−25.6%+43.9%−47.2%+32.1%+18.2%
OCGN Ocugen, Inc.3 of 7+67.7%+40.0%−55.8%−71.4%+149%+252%−90.1%
NVAX Novavax, Inc.3 of 7−16.4%+67.5%−53.3%−92.8%+28.3%+2,702%−89.2%
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Risk and diversification

How MRNA has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were MRNA's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents MRNA's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 2018, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Note: MRNA began trading on December 7, 2018, so this list cannot include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs. The crash tests on this page show how older funds and the S&P 500 fared through those years.

Green means MRNA fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringMRNA fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
2022 bear market−95.4%+56.6%Aug 2021Nov 20254.3 yearsNot yet—
No named crash−56.7%−2.1%May 2019Aug 20193 monthsFeb 20206 months
No named crash−42.7%+3.6%Jul 2020Sep 20202 monthsNov 20202 months
No named crash−38.5%+1.4%Dec 2020Dec 2020Under a monthJan 20211 month
No named crash−36.3%+1.4%Feb 2021Mar 20211 monthMay 20212 months

How did MRNA do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far MRNA, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Note: MRNA began trading on December 7, 2018, so its row reads "Not yet trading" for the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or five other sell-offs. The older alternatives and the S&P 500 show how those crashes played out.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than MRNA.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
MRNA This pageModerna, Inc.—−3.3%−49.9%−28.7%Not yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet trading
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF1 of 3−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
EXEL Exelixis, Inc.2 of 30.0%−35.4%−33.7%−24.9%−8.7%−36.4%−43.7%−5.4%−80.0%—
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.3 of 3−1.6%−20.0%−13.7%−22.7%−5.5%−28.7%−18.2%−2.1%−34.3%−53.6%
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated3 of 30.0%−19.2%−19.4%−21.2%−8.8%−43.7%−23.9%−2.7%−59.9%−86.7%
AMGN Amgen Inc.3 of 3−1.2%−11.9%−18.3%−14.3%−7.4%−22.1%−12.6%−0.5%−31.3%−60.2%
INCY Incyte Corporation3 of 3−2.4%−20.4%−23.7%−16.4%−4.8%−50.2%−32.9%−4.5%−83.5%−97.1%
GSK GSK plc3 of 3−0.3%−37.6%−26.5%−11.5%−4.3%−15.7%−12.4%−2.0%−46.6%−45.1%
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.1 of 3−5.8%−26.3%−32.6%−18.1%−8.5%−48.8%−25.7%−2.1%−45.6%−74.6%
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.3 of 3−0.2%−25.8%−12.7%−17.3%−7.3%−37.7%−23.2%−7.2%−49.9%−71.6%
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.3 of 3−2.4%−19.8%−24.8%−17.2%−8.7%−14.7%−24.4%−3.6%−53.9%−41.8%
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.1 of 3−4.1%−28.9%−30.0%−33.7%−6.9%−48.9%−39.3%−1.5%−58.6%—
SNY Sanofi3 of 3−0.5%−33.5%−25.2%−9.0%−9.8%−30.2%−20.7%−2.8%−46.6%—
PFE Pfizer Inc.3 of 3−1.8%−24.6%−21.8%−12.3%−8.1%−18.2%−16.1%−1.8%−49.8%−46.0%
BIIB Biogen Inc.3 of 3−2.5%−22.4%−21.2%−21.7%−9.3%−24.6%−19.4%−0.6%−52.7%−59.8%
DHR Danaher Corporation2 of 3−3.2%−22.8%−25.9%−13.4%−9.8%−14.0%−21.8%−0.6%−45.7%−33.7%
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.2 of 3−4.5%−22.9%−26.3%−24.4%−11.6%−53.6%−23.1%−4.1%−74.9%−89.7%
BNTX BioNTech SE2 of 3−1.2%−45.7%−49.5%———————
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.1 of 3−6.7%−29.7%−33.6%−39.7%−12.6%−74.3%−39.5%−5.0%−84.4%−87.3%
OCGN Ocugen, Inc.0 of 3−4.9%−64.0%−51.8%−87.0%−12.3%−67.1%————
NVAX Novavax, Inc.0 of 3−5.4%−88.2%−56.8%−30.2%−6.0%−68.0%−44.6%−3.7%−86.7%−87.6%
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How closely does MRNA move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares MRNA with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 5 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 5 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than MRNA's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
MRNA This pageModerna, Inc.49%172%0.281.09
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated77%8%9.210.28
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc.73%17%4.430.32
AMGN Amgen Inc.76%34%2.260.41
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.29%20%1.460.27
GSK GSK plc51%39%1.310.36
INCY Incyte Corporation85%83%1.020.73
IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.57%69%0.830.38
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.49%61%0.810.16
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.102%160%0.640.88
SNY Sanofi45%76%0.590.34
DHR Danaher Corporation61%132%0.470.77
PFE Pfizer Inc.34%79%0.420.32
BIIB Biogen Inc.19%63%0.300.09
BNTX BioNTech SE51%213%0.241.24
OCGN Ocugen, Inc.76%359%0.212.26
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.5%41%0.120.22
NVAX Novavax, Inc.47%424%0.112.44
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.-26%152%-0.170.38
EXEL Exelixis, Inc.61%-17%—0.47
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What diversifies MRNA?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with MRNA's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing MRNA with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which MRNA lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% MRNA and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe202520242023202280/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
MRNA Moderna, Inc. (this page)1.00−27.3%0.30−29.1%−58.2%−44.6%−29.3%93.9%−12.9%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.08+119%1.48+27.1%+15.9%+17.4%+3.8%75.3%−3.6%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.20+225%1.34+32.8%+29.8%+42.0%+6.0%75.6%−2.1%
EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund0.06+101%1.04+9.7%+33.4%+8.0%+10.4%75.3%−3.8%
HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF0.18+83.3%1.00+11.9%+14.1%+1.8%+7.1%75.7%−4.5%
SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF0.28+323%0.97+49.2%+39.1%+73.4%−33.5%77.3%−0.9%
DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF0.24+85.0%0.96+23.1%+13.4%+20.1%−5.1%75.6%−4.4%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares0.19+126%0.96+63.7%+26.7%+12.7%−0.8%75.8%−3.4%
SPMO Broad MarketInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF0.20+136%0.93+26.6%+45.8%+17.6%−10.4%76.0%−3.0%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe202520242023202280/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
MRNA Moderna, Inc. (this page)1.00−27.3%0.30−29.1%−58.2%−44.6%−29.3%93.9%−12.9%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.02+479%1.55+76.3%+19.0%+34.1%+54.1%75.4%+0.3%
CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc.-0.04+3,143%1.47+220%+215%+160%+1.3%75.6%+11.3%
FIX Engineering & ConstructionComfort Systems USA, Inc.0.05+1,636%1.46+121%+107%+79.6%+17.0%76.0%+7.3%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.01+413%1.44+44.5%+23.7%+24.1%+51.8%75.3%−0.3%
MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation0.20+690%1.41+19.2%−4.0%+30.4%+86.6%76.7%+1.6%
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Common questions

What was MRNA's worst drawdown?

MRNA's deepest decline since it began trading in 2018 was 95.4%, from August 2021 to November 2025. It has not yet climbed back to that peak. Because MRNA launched in December 2018, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs.

What were MRNA's best and worst years?

Over seven full calendar years, MRNA's best year was 2020, when it returned 434%. Its worst was 2024, with a return of -58.2%.

Is there a better investment than MRNA?

Among MRNA's popular alternatives, GILD, AMGN and VRTX earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. GILD returned 22.8% a year at 24.9% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, LLY (pharmaceuticals) and JNJ (pharmaceuticals) earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. LLY returned 40.7% a year at 32.8% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.

Is MRNA more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. MRNA's volatility over the past 5 years was 104%, 6.1 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MRNA's return lands within 104% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is MRNA's Sharpe ratio?

MRNA's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.30, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MRNA earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is MRNA with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, MRNA's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.18 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MRNA instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MRNA holding.

What are the best alternatives to MRNA?

None of the 19 popular alternatives we compared outperformed MRNA in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 2 long-term timeframes, which says more about MRNA's strength than about its alternatives.

Did MRNA outperform the S&P 500?

MRNA finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of seven full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -29.1%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did MRNA do in stock market crashes?

MRNA fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in one of the three major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MRNA fell 28.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

What diversifies MRNA?

These had a low correlation with MRNA over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.08), DXJ (correlation 0.20) and EMLP (correlation 0.06); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.02), CLS (correlation -0.04) and FIX (correlation 0.05). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

How we measure

More research

Popular alternatives to MRNA

Other stocks and ETFs