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Relative Intelligence · Industrial Machinery

How Caterpillar (CAT) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on CAT alone. It places CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where CAT stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: CAT's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against CAT →Chart CAT vs. 20 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in CAT have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in CAT over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of CAT over the same span and CAT's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Choose a period

From the end of September 1997 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 72 of the 1,042 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CAT; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$100,000$1M$10M199720022007201220172022$10,000$100,000$1M$10M19972004201120182025
  • AAPL$21M+205,249% total · +30.1% a year
  • AMZN$11M+114,749% total · +27.5% a year
  • ESLT$2M+16,428% total · +19.3% a year
  • OSK$650,601+6,406% total · +15.5% a year
  • MU$629,766+6,198% total · +15.4% a year
  • CAT$615,591+6,056% total · +15.3% a year
  • WAB$275,358+2,654% total · +12.1% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$132,907+1,229% total · +9.3% a year
  • FCX$86,132+761% total · +7.7% a year
  • MTW$45,662+357% total · +5.4% a year
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From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 152 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of CAT; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000202120222023202420252026$0$50,000$100,000202120222023202420252026
  • HWM$73,554+636% total · +49.0% a year
  • LLY$52,411+424% total · +39.3% a year
  • MOG-A$52,115+421% total · +39.1% a year
  • GE$49,841+398% total · +37.9% a year
  • ESLT$49,131+391% total · +37.5% a year
  • CAT$46,130+361% total · +35.8% a year
  • WAB$34,242+242% total · +27.9% a year
  • URI$29,622+196% total · +24.3% a year
  • FCX$23,053+131% total · +18.2% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
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CAT at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

The company

Market value
$333B
Industry
Agricultural - Machinery
Price history from
October 1986

Returns

Past 1 year
+37.7%total return
Past 3 years
+203%+44.7% a year
Past 5 years
+288%+31.1% a year
Past 10 years
+936%+26.3% a year
Best calendar year
+86.1%2003
Worst calendar year
−36.8%2008
Losing years
6 of 29full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
31.9%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
1.01return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−73.4%Jul 2007 to Mar 2009
From its all-time high
−31.6%below the peak

CAT against the whole market

Where CAT ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does CAT rank among all stocks?

This section ranks CAT on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how CAT stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasureCATRankStanding
1-year return+37.7%785 of 3,287top 24%
3-year return+203%398 of 3,017top 13%
5-year return+288%185 of 2,893top 6%
10-year return+936%120 of 2,202top 5%
Volatility, 5 years31.9%899 of 2,893top 31%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years1.0193 of 2,893top 3%
Worst decline, past 10 years−43.4%239 of 2,187top 11%

What has beaten CAT on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). CAT sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than CAT with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to CAT; faint dots are 3 more of the 5 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than CATHSBC: +33.1% a year, volatility 25.9%MUFG: +33.2% a year, volatility 29.4%SMFG: +33.7% a year, volatility 29.4%CAT: +31.1% a year, volatility 31.9%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%ESLT: +39.8% a year, volatility 34.6%GE: +36.0% a year, volatility 31.0%MOG-A: +36.6% a year, volatility 32.0%HWM: +47.3% a year, volatility 32.5%EMBJ: +32.8% a year, volatility 45.0%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%MPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%MCK: +38.7% a year, volatility 25.0%BBVA: +38.7% a year, volatility 33.3%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%NHC: +32.0% a year, volatility 28.5%SMH: +33.4% a year, volatility 36.9%PSI: +24.3% a year, volatility 41.6%CATSPY (S&P 500)ESLTGEMOG-AHWMEMBJLLYMPCMCKBBVACAHNHCSMHPSI10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than CATHSBC: +33.1% a year, volatility 25.9%MUFG: +33.2% a year, volatility 29.4%SMFG: +33.7% a year, volatility 29.4%CAT: +31.1% a year, volatility 31.9%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%ESLT: +39.8% a year, volatility 34.6%GE: +36.0% a year, volatility 31.0%MOG-A: +36.6% a year, volatility 32.0%HWM: +47.3% a year, volatility 32.5%EMBJ: +32.8% a year, volatility 45.0%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%MPC: +51.2% a year, volatility 33.4%MCK: +38.7% a year, volatility 25.0%BBVA: +38.7% a year, volatility 33.3%CAH: +42.1% a year, volatility 24.7%NHC: +32.0% a year, volatility 28.5%SMH: +33.4% a year, volatility 36.9%PSI: +24.3% a year, volatility 41.6%CATSPY (S&P 500)ESLTGEMOG-AHWMEMBJLLYMPCMCKCAHNHCSMHPSI
  • Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
  • The whole market
  • Others in the green region

Is there a better investment than CAT?

Investments that beat CAT over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat CAT over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks CAT's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than CAT follows the table.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than CAT's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× CAT's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than CAT's.

Screen the whole market against CAT for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 14 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years10Y returntotalCorr. with CAT?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
CATCaterpillar Inc. · this page
+31.1%31.9%1.01−43.4%+936%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+321%0.650.09%
Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 5 shownEverything else in Industrial Machinery and the categories next to it (Infrastructure, Electrical Equipment, Aerospace & Defense, Industrial Distribution), plus CAT's specific themes. 5 of 100 passed at least one test.
ESLTElbit Systems Ltd. · Aerospace & Defense
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods+39.8%34.6%1.15−35.4%+765%-0.02—
GEGE Aerospace · Aerospace & Defense
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+36.0%31.0%1.15−80.9%+139%0.54—
MOG-AMoog Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+36.6%32.0%1.14−63.7%+595%0.55—
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
On the frontierHigher return, similar volatility+47.3%32.5%1.36−68.9%+1,028%0.46—
EMBJEmbraer S.A. · Aerospace & Defense
Higher return in most periods+32.8%45.0%0.86−85.2%+283%0.39—
The whole marketbest 8 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 50 of 3,513 passed at least one test.
LLYEli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periodsSmaller losses in recent crashes+40.7%32.8%1.21−34.5%+1,807%0.15—
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation · Oil & Gas
On the frontierHigher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+51.2%33.4%1.41−79.7%+1,387%0.26—
MCKMcKesson Corporation · Health Care Distribution
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher Sharpe, smaller worst decline+38.7%25.0%1.44−38.1%+586%0.15—
BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. · Banks
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+38.7%33.3%1.16−69.6%+542%0.36—
CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatility+42.1%24.7%1.55−46.1%+349%0.38—
NHCNational HealthCare Corporation · Medical - Care Facilities
Higher Sharpe, smaller worst declineHigher return in most periods+32.0%28.5%1.12−35.3%+394%0.27—
SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF · Semiconductors
Higher return in most periods+33.4%36.9%0.97−45.3%+1,665%0.590.35%
PSIInvesco Semiconductors ETF · Technology
Higher return in most periods+24.3%41.6%0.73−44.9%+1,134%0.670.55%
What these numbers mean for CAT
Annual return
CAT returned 31.1% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $38,800. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
CAT's volatility over the past 5 years was 31.9%, 1.9 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CAT's return lands within 31.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
CAT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.01, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CAT earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
CAT's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 43.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 43.4% fall takes a 76.6% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, CAT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.65 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CAT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CAT holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 5 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than CAT with less volatility

Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. Best first; funds that hold the same thing are listed once.

#InvestmentFound inAnnual returnVolatilitySharpeWorst decline10Y returnCorr. with CATExpense
1
MCKMcKesson Corporation · Health Care Distribution
Whole market+38.7%25.0%1.44−38.1%+586%0.15—
2
CAHCardinal Health, Inc. · Health Care Distribution
Whole market+42.1%24.7%1.55−46.1%+349%0.38—
3
HSBCHSBC Holdings plc · Banks
Whole market+33.1%25.9%1.24−62.3%+319%0.21—
4
MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. · Banks
Whole market+33.2%29.4%1.13−54.9%+483%0.26—
5
SMFGSumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. · Banks
Whole market+33.7%29.4%1.14−47.6%+474%0.20—

CAT against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against CAT, compared period by period and year by year.

How do CAT's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at CAT, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than CAT with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%−10.0%−5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityCAT: 31.1% a year, volatility 31.9%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%URI: 24.3% a year, volatility 39.1%FCX: 13.7% a year, volatility 44.9%MTW: 1.6% a year, volatility 51.1%WNC: −2.6% a year, volatility 49.0%CNH: −5.4% a year, volatility 37.4%LNN: −6.7% a year, volatility 32.8%HRI: −6.0% a year, volatility 52.4%OSK: 6.4% a year, volatility 34.7%AGCO: −1.6% a year, volatility 35.8%TEX: 4.0% a year, volatility 44.3%TRN: 0.5% a year, volatility 35.7%GBX: −2.0% a year, volatility 42.2%ASTE: −4.6% a year, volatility 42.7%WAB: 25.6% a year, volatility 26.2%DE: 14.4% a year, volatility 29.9%PCAR: 17.9% a year, volatility 26.1%MLM: 6.5% a year, volatility 27.1%VMC: 8.0% a year, volatility 26.6%ALG: 0.9% a year, volatility 29.6%CMI: 19.9% a year, volatility 29.0%CATSPY (S&P 500)URIFCXMTWWNCCNHLNNHRIOSKAGCOTEXTRNGBXASTEWABDEPCARMLMVMCALGCMI10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityCAT: 31.1% a year, volatility 31.9%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%URI: 24.3% a year, volatility 39.1%FCX: 13.7% a year, volatility 44.9%MTW: 1.6% a year, volatility 51.1%WNC: −2.6% a year, volatility 49.0%CNH: −5.4% a year, volatility 37.4%LNN: −6.7% a year, volatility 32.8%HRI: −6.0% a year, volatility 52.4%OSK: 6.4% a year, volatility 34.7%AGCO: −1.6% a year, volatility 35.8%TEX: 4.0% a year, volatility 44.3%TRN: 0.5% a year, volatility 35.7%GBX: −2.0% a year, volatility 42.2%ASTE: −4.6% a year, volatility 42.7%WAB: 25.6% a year, volatility 26.2%DE: 14.4% a year, volatility 29.9%PCAR: 17.9% a year, volatility 26.1%MLM: 6.5% a year, volatility 27.1%VMC: 8.0% a year, volatility 26.6%ALG: 0.9% a year, volatility 29.6%CMI: 19.9% a year, volatility 29.0%CATSPY (S&P 500)URIFCXMTWWNCCNHLNNHRIOSKAGCOTEXTRNGBXASTEWABPCARMLMVMCALG
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
CAT This pageCaterpillar Inc.+31.1%31.9%
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation+25.6%26.2%
URI United Rentals, Inc.+24.3%39.1%
CMI Cummins Inc.+19.9%29.0%
PCAR PACCAR Inc+17.9%26.1%
DE Deere & Company+14.4%29.9%
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.+13.7%44.9%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
VMC Vulcan Materials Company+8.0%26.6%
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.+6.5%27.1%
OSK Oshkosh Corp+6.4%34.7%
TEX Terex Corporation+4.0%44.3%
MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc.+1.6%51.1%
ALG Alamo Group Inc.+0.9%29.6%
TRN Trinity Industries, Inc.+0.5%35.7%
AGCO AGCO Corporation−1.6%35.8%
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.−2.0%42.2%
WNC Wabash National Corporation−2.6%49.0%
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc.−4.6%42.7%
CNH CNH Industrial N.V.−5.4%37.4%
HRI Herc Holdings Inc.−6.0%52.4%
LNN Lindsay Corporation−6.7%32.8%
Open these 22 in EasyCompare

Has CAT consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares CAT with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than CAT helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than CAT over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y10YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
CAT Caterpillar Inc. (this page)—−11.2%−15.9%−8.8%+22.2%+37.7%+203%+288%+936%31.9%1.01−43.4%—$333B—
URI Rental & Leasing ServicesUnited Rentals, Inc.4/5 short1/3 long+1.4%+3.3%+29.0%+24.3%+5.2%+164%+196%+1,270%39.1%0.75−63.3%—$65B—
FCX CopperFreeport-McMoRan Inc.5/5 short0/3 long−4.3%+17.4%−1.4%+33.9%+64.8%+111%+89.6%+650%44.9%0.51−72.6%—$99B—
WAB RailroadsWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation5/5 short0/3 long+0.1%+10.1%+7.6%+31.6%+45.3%+189%+212%+264%26.2%1.00−64.1%—$48B—
MTW Industrial - MachineryThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.5/5 short0/3 long−2.4%+73.7%+72.4%+82.0%+98.2%+69.4%+8.4%+28.0%51.1%0.28−83.4%—$801M—
WNC Agricultural - MachineryWabash National Corporation5/5 short0/3 long+8.6%−3.5%+34.9%+46.7%+45.3%−34.4%−12.4%+15.8%49.0%0.19−76.4%—$519M—
DE Agricultural - MachineryDeere & Company4/5 short0/3 long−7.5%+8.1%+6.9%+36.5%+38.3%+75.4%+96.1%+755%29.9%0.60−37.9%—$170B—
CNH Agricultural - MachineryCNH Industrial N.V.3/5 short0/3 long−14.4%+11.7%+7.4%+24.6%+10.9%+10.3%−24.3%+78.9%37.4%0.04−65.8%—$14B—
LNN Agricultural - MachineryLindsay Corporation3/5 short0/3 long−7.1%−5.1%−0.6%−11.0%−16.2%−4.3%−29.2%+56.3%32.8%-0.05−41.1%—$1.1B—
HRI Rental & Leasing ServicesHerc Holdings Inc.2/5 short0/3 long−10.9%−14.5%+13.9%−16.5%−0.4%+23.5%−26.7%+365%52.4%0.14−82.2%—$4.2B—
PCAR Industrial - MachineryPACCAR Inc2/5 short0/3 long−4.1%−11.2%−13.7%−0.5%+15.7%+50.2%+128%+314%26.1%0.76−37.9%—$58B—
MLM Construction MaterialsMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.2/5 short0/3 long+1.6%−8.2%−18.8%−19.7%−18.6%+26.0%+37.1%+206%27.1%0.37−48.3%—$30B—
OSK Agricultural - MachineryOshkosh Corp2/5 short0/3 long−7.3%−6.1%−11.7%+1.7%+0.1%+57.3%+36.2%+192%34.7%0.35−48.7%—$8.2B—
VMC Construction MaterialsVulcan Materials Company2/5 short0/3 long+6.4%−6.5%−10.8%−10.0%−10.7%+32.9%+46.8%+159%26.6%0.42−49.2%—$34B—
ALG Industrial - MachineryAlamo Group Inc.2/5 short0/3 long−9.5%−6.8%−13.5%−11.9%−18.1%−7.4%+4.3%+141%29.6%0.18−42.5%—$1.8B—
CMI Industrial - MachineryCummins Inc.1/5 short0/3 long+0.3%−15.8%−15.2%+3.8%+31.4%+160%+148%+444%29.0%0.77−44.0%—$74B—
AGCO Agricultural - MachineryAGCO Corporation1/5 short0/3 long−12.7%−6.6%−12.5%−0.4%−2.0%−2.5%−7.5%+155%35.8%0.14−54.1%—$7.3B—
TEX Industrial - MachineryTerex Corporation1/5 short0/3 long−10.7%−16.1%−14.8%−3.6%−3.4%+14.8%+21.6%+141%44.3%0.31−74.1%—$6.0B—
TRN RailroadsTrinity Industries, Inc.1/5 short0/3 long−9.9%−31.1%−20.6%−4.1%−8.8%+29.7%+2.5%+107%35.7%0.19−45.2%—$2.0B—
GBX RailroadsThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.1/5 short0/3 long−10.4%−24.1%−23.3%−18.8%−15.7%−0.7%−9.4%+38.6%42.2%0.16−78.7%—$1.2B—
ASTE Industrial - MachineryAstec Industries, Inc.1/5 short0/3 long−5.8%−26.9%−32.7%−11.3%−16.1%−3.3%−21.1%−26.1%42.7%0.11−62.5%—$903M—
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How did CAT do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where CAT ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with CAT and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of CAT; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places CAT among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of CAT20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000199919981997
CAT This pageCaterpillar Inc.—+60.3%+24.7%+25.9%+18.6%+16.0%+27.0%+19.5%−17.6%+75.0%+42.1%−23.0%+3.5%+3.4%+1.6%−1.5%+68.5%+33.2%−36.8%+20.5%+7.8%+20.7%+19.7%+86.1%−9.8%+13.7%+4.1%+4.7%−3.0%+31.2%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 9 of 291 of 216 of 2110 of 213 of 2117 of 219 of 2113 of 215 of 211 of 2110 of 2113 of 2110 of 2121 of 2119 of 216 of 216 of 219 of 216 of 2110 of 2117 of 2011 of 2010 of 206 of 2010 of 205 of 208 of 209 of 209 of 2012 of 19
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF12 of 29+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%−4.6%+21.7%+12.0%+1.2%+13.5%+32.3%+16.0%+1.9%+15.1%+26.4%−36.8%+5.1%+15.9%+4.8%+10.7%+28.2%−21.6%−11.7%−9.8%+20.4%+28.7%+33.5%
URI United Rentals, Inc.14 of 28+15.9%+24.0%+63.6%+7.0%+43.3%+39.1%+62.6%−40.4%+62.8%+45.6%−28.9%+30.9%+71.3%+54.0%+29.9%+132%+7.5%−50.3%−27.8%+8.7%+23.8%−1.9%+79.0%−52.6%+68.9%−21.5%−48.3%+71.5%—
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.13 of 29+35.4%−9.4%+13.7%−7.3%+61.4%+99.1%+29.6%−45.1%+43.8%+94.9%−70.2%−35.8%+19.9%−4.0%−36.9%+52.7%+228%−75.5%+86.9%+11.6%+49.1%−6.6%+154%+25.5%+56.5%−59.5%+102%−32.9%−45.6%
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation15 of 29+13.2%+50.1%+28.0%+9.1%+26.5%−5.2%+11.5%−13.3%−1.4%+17.3%−17.9%+17.3%+70.1%+25.4%+32.4%+29.7%+2.8%+15.6%+13.5%+13.1%+26.5%+25.4%+21.8%+14.6%+4.9%−33.5%−27.2%−4.5%+104%
MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc.11 of 29+31.3%−45.3%+82.2%−50.7%+39.7%−23.9%+18.5%−62.5%+64.5%+72.1%−30.2%−4.8%+49.3%+71.6%−29.4%+32.5%+17.2%−82.2%+64.7%+138%+34.1%+21.5%+23.8%−17.2%+8.3%−13.7%+15.5%+37.9%+22.2%
WNC Wabash National Corporation7 of 29−48.1%−32.2%+14.9%+18.2%+15.5%+20.3%+15.5%−38.8%+38.8%+33.8%−4.3%+0.1%+37.7%+14.4%−33.9%+527%−57.9%−40.6%−48.3%−19.9%−28.7%−8.1%+250%+7.5%−8.6%−41.6%−25.5%−28.1%+55.6%
DE Deere & Company14 of 29+11.4%+7.6%−5.5%+26.6%+28.9%+58.0%+18.3%−2.9%+54.8%+39.0%−11.3%−0.5%+8.2%+14.3%−5.0%+56.3%+44.8%−58.1%+98.6%+42.3%−6.6%+16.3%+44.4%+7.1%−2.6%+8.1%+34.8%−42.3%+46.1%
CNH CNH Industrial N.V.10 of 29−17.1%−3.2%−22.0%−15.8%+52.6%+16.8%+21.5%−30.3%+56.1%+29.4%−12.9%−27.3%+7.7%+12.2%−24.7%+91.1%+59.9%−76.3%+141%+47.1%−4.3%+16.7%−12.5%−37.6%−29.5%−35.2%−2.7%+159%−74.7%
LNN Lindsay Corporation12 of 29+0.8%−7.3%−19.9%+8.1%+19.3%+35.5%+1.2%+10.6%+19.9%+4.7%−14.4%+4.9%+3.9%+46.9%−7.1%+50.3%+26.4%−54.8%+118%+71.2%−24.8%+3.3%+18.9%+11.3%−13.8%+24.9%+24.1%−48.5%+39.8%
HRI Herc Holdings Inc.7 of 19−20.1%+29.4%+15.5%−14.4%+136%+35.7%+88.3%−58.5%+55.9%−5.9%−42.9%−12.9%+75.9%+38.9%−19.1%+21.6%+135%−68.1%−8.6%——————————
PCAR PACCAR Inc15 of 29+8.0%+10.8%+54.5%+17.0%+5.6%+11.8%+45.1%−15.3%+14.9%+37.1%−27.1%+18.3%+34.9%+22.9%−32.5%+60.3%+28.9%−46.4%+29.8%+46.9%−10.4%+47.3%+89.8%+9.4%+36.5%+17.1%+13.4%−17.5%+57.5%
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.14 of 29+21.3%+4.1%+48.6%−22.7%+56.1%+2.6%+64.2%−21.5%+0.6%+63.7%+25.1%+11.8%+7.7%+27.6%−16.5%+5.2%−6.1%−25.7%+28.8%+36.9%+44.9%+16.1%+56.3%−33.1%+11.6%+4.5%−33.4%+72.1%+59.8%
OSK Oshkosh Corp15 of 29+34.5%−10.8%+25.2%−20.5%+32.5%−7.5%+56.6%−31.6%+42.3%+68.4%−18.5%−2.2%+70.4%+38.7%−39.3%−4.8%+321%−80.7%−1.7%+9.5%+31.3%+34.6%+66.7%+27.5%+11.7%+51.7%+34.2%+88.0%+75.6%
VMC Vulcan Materials Company13 of 29+11.7%+14.1%+30.8%−14.9%+41.1%+4.1%+47.1%−22.3%+3.2%+32.7%+45.1%+11.0%+14.2%+32.5%−9.5%−13.7%−21.7%−9.1%−10.3%+35.1%+26.4%+17.4%+30.2%−20.0%+2.1%+22.2%−7.3%+31.2%+71.8%
ALG Alamo Group Inc.10 of 29−9.1%−11.1%+49.2%−3.3%+7.1%+10.4%+63.2%−31.2%+49.0%+47.0%+8.2%−19.7%+87.3%+22.2%−2.3%+64.1%+16.8%−16.4%−22.0%+15.7%−23.7%+80.5%+27.0%−12.5%+11.1%+29.9%−6.9%−45.8%+29.5%
CMI Cummins Inc.13 of 29+49.4%+48.9%+1.7%+14.1%−1.7%+30.5%+38.0%−22.1%+32.7%+60.7%−37.2%+4.3%+32.5%+25.2%−18.9%+143%+75.2%−57.4%+118%+33.2%+8.7%+74.5%+78.5%−24.6%+4.7%−18.6%+39.0%−38.3%+30.5%
AGCO AGCO Corporation12 of 29+12.8%−20.5%−7.9%+25.0%+16.2%+34.8%+40.0%−21.3%+24.2%+28.9%+1.4%−22.9%+21.3%+14.3%−15.2%+56.7%+37.1%−65.3%+120%+86.8%−24.3%+8.7%−8.9%+40.1%+30.3%−9.4%+71.0%−72.9%+2.3%
TEX Terex Corporation11 of 29+17.2%−18.6%+36.1%−1.5%+27.2%+17.8%+9.7%−42.2%+54.3%+72.8%−33.0%−33.2%+49.6%+108%−56.5%+56.7%+14.4%−73.6%+1.5%+118%+24.7%+67.3%+155%−36.4%+8.4%−41.7%−2.8%+21.6%+132%
TRN Trinity Industries, Inc.8 of 29−21.5%+37.2%−6.2%+1.5%+17.9%+23.8%+11.1%−22.4%+37.1%+18.0%−12.9%+3.7%+54.1%+20.9%+14.2%+55.1%+13.3%−42.6%−20.6%+20.6%+30.2%+11.5%+64.6%−29.0%+12.2%−9.0%−24.7%−12.2%+21.4%
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.12 of 29−21.3%+41.3%+36.3%−24.8%+29.4%+17.7%−15.5%−24.3%+30.8%+31.9%−38.4%+64.4%+103%−33.4%+15.6%+102%+51.8%−68.3%−24.9%+6.7%−15.3%+103%+135%−1.6%−8.8%−0.2%−36.6%−17.1%+69.8%
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc.13 of 29+30.6%−8.4%−7.3%−40.6%+20.5%+39.4%+40.9%−47.9%−12.6%+67.0%+4.6%+2.8%+16.8%+7.5%−0.6%+20.3%−14.0%−15.8%+6.0%+7.5%+89.7%+40.0%+23.9%−31.4%+9.6%−29.8%−32.4%+232%+76.6%
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Risk and diversification

How CAT has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were CAT's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents CAT's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 1986, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Green means CAT fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringCAT fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
2008 financial crisis−73.4%−52.9%Jul 2007Mar 200920 monthsSep 201018 months
Dot-com bust−52.3%+1.5%Apr 1999Oct 200018 monthsJul 20032.8 years
No named crash−44.7%—Oct 1987Oct 19903 yearsApr 19932.5 years
2015 China and oil sell-off−44.6%−2.3%Jul 2014Jan 201618 monthsApr 201715 months
Late-2018 sell-off−43.4%−17.6%Jan 2018Mar 20202.2 yearsOct 20207 months

How did CAT do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far CAT, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than CAT.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
CAT This pageCaterpillar Inc.—−9.7%−30.1%−33.1%−28.5%−7.3%−26.0%−33.2%−2.2%−73.3%−42.5%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF8 of 10−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
URI United Rentals, Inc.1 of 10−14.5%−35.4%−55.3%−43.3%−6.7%−45.7%−50.5%−3.6%−91.2%−77.3%
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.1 of 10−7.2%−51.3%−56.1%−32.8%−8.4%−72.2%−46.7%−2.1%−86.4%−51.4%
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation6 of 10−6.4%−18.9%−48.3%−37.9%−2.9%−40.5%−26.1%−2.4%−60.8%−33.7%
MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc.0 of 10−14.7%−60.8%−33.7%−47.6%−8.2%−28.7%−62.4%−5.7%−95.2%−47.7%
WNC Wabash National Corporation1 of 10−9.7%−41.9%−43.5%−36.4%−10.2%−26.1%−49.1%−0.6%−92.7%−78.8%
DE Deere & Company6 of 10−6.7%−33.8%−37.4%−17.5%−6.9%−24.9%−24.2%0.0%−73.3%−37.3%
CNH CNH Industrial N.V.0 of 10−9.6%−34.7%−46.5%−32.7%−11.1%−38.6%−43.2%−2.5%−91.3%−80.9%
LNN Lindsay Corporation7 of 10−5.6%−24.3%−32.6%−18.6%−1.5%−25.0%−32.5%−1.9%−82.8%−36.0%
HRI Herc Holdings Inc.0 of 9−21.3%−49.9%−71.3%−52.0%−12.2%−64.2%−48.3%−3.0%−93.8%—
PCAR PACCAR Inc5 of 10−6.0%−17.4%−34.0%−23.9%−7.8%−27.9%−35.0%−3.0%−62.5%−40.9%
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.6 of 10−8.1%−32.7%−44.1%−20.2%−4.8%−33.6%−21.8%0.0%−56.3%−45.3%
OSK Oshkosh Corp3 of 10−9.1%−42.9%−42.4%−30.5%−4.8%−30.4%−52.5%−2.2%−93.5%−34.6%
VMC Vulcan Materials Company7 of 10−7.2%−32.5%−43.4%−27.1%−7.3%−22.8%−26.4%−1.3%−61.0%−39.7%
ALG Alamo Group Inc.7 of 10−5.9%−31.1%−41.7%−22.6%−1.8%−15.5%−17.2%−4.8%−62.9%−28.8%
CMI Cummins Inc.4 of 10−7.9%−20.7%−38.6%−17.7%−11.0%−35.1%−27.6%−2.9%−75.7%−60.2%
AGCO AGCO Corporation3 of 10−9.7%−36.9%−46.1%−19.2%−8.0%−24.1%−36.6%−0.6%−78.7%−44.1%
TEX Terex Corporation0 of 10−13.7%−41.1%−50.2%−38.7%−8.3%−45.9%−60.4%−8.6%−91.6%−45.3%
TRN Trinity Industries, Inc.1 of 10−11.7%−38.5%−34.4%−30.8%−5.4%−32.8%−43.3%−4.6%−83.9%−45.9%
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.1 of 10−12.0%−53.9%−50.1%−41.2%−5.9%−53.6%−51.5%−8.0%−93.5%−56.9%
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc.4 of 10−11.5%−56.1%−38.7%−46.1%−5.3%−20.9%−29.4%−4.2%−67.7%−71.7%
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How closely does CAT move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares CAT with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 10 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 10 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than CAT's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
CAT This pageCaterpillar Inc.148%122%1.211.27
DE Deere & Company110%66%1.670.98
URI United Rentals, Inc.177%165%1.071.90
CMI Cummins Inc.118%118%1.001.15
PCAR PACCAR Inc103%108%0.950.97
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.164%181%0.901.74
MLM Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.83%93%0.900.88
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation111%127%0.871.28
LNN Lindsay Corporation43%50%0.860.53
VMC Vulcan Materials Company75%91%0.830.83
ALG Alamo Group Inc.80%97%0.831.05
AGCO AGCO Corporation99%121%0.811.22
HRI Herc Holdings Inc.196%272%0.722.46
OSK Oshkosh Corp127%178%0.711.41
CNH CNH Industrial N.V.113%168%0.671.48
TEX Terex Corporation133%199%0.671.60
TRN Trinity Industries, Inc.110%165%0.671.38
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.124%211%0.591.50
MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc.153%279%0.552.07
WNC Wabash National Corporation115%217%0.531.64
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc.69%155%0.451.35
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What diversifies CAT?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with CAT's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing CAT with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which CAT lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% CAT and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20182015201120082002199880/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
CAT Caterpillar Inc. (this page)1.00+288%1.01−17.6%−23.0%−1.5%−36.8%−9.8%−3.0%37.9%+35.8%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.46+119%1.48−5.2%—————31.2%+32.9%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.46+225%1.34−19.8%+7.7%−16.1%−20.8%——31.5%+35.1%
FDL Dividend & IncomeFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund0.49+91.8%0.98−6.0%+2.6%+14.5%−31.1%——32.0%+32.1%
EWP Broad MarketiShares MSCI Spain ETF0.44+140%0.97−15.3%−15.6%−9.8%−36.8%−13.6%+50.5%32.1%+33.8%
MLPX EnergyGlobal X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF0.48+135%0.97−15.5%−35.3%————32.3%+33.6%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares0.00+126%0.96−1.9%−10.7%+9.6%+4.9%——30.5%+33.8%
XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF0.37+177%0.93−18.2%−21.5%+2.8%−39.0%−14.8%—32.6%+34.5%
AMLP EnergyAlerian MLP ETF0.39+111%0.89−12.6%−25.7%+10.2%———31.9%+33.3%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe20182015201120082002199880/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
CAT Caterpillar Inc. (this page)1.00+288%1.01−17.6%−23.0%−1.5%−36.8%−9.8%−3.0%37.9%+35.8%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.38+479%1.55−24.5%+12.6%+8.1%−39.6%−8.3%+51.7%32.7%+37.6%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.15+413%1.44−28.4%−4.5%+11.8%−40.4%−27.2%+46.9%31.4%+37.4%
MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation0.26+690%1.41−8.2%+17.4%————32.6%+40.1%
HWM Aerospace & DefenseHowmet Aerospace Inc.0.46+594%1.36−37.5%−36.3%−42.9%−67.4%−33.1%+7.0%34.0%+39.8%
ATI Manufacturing - Metal FabricationATI Inc.0.41+1,008%1.34−9.8%−66.7%−12.2%−70.0%−60.8%—35.2%+43.0%
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Common questions

What was CAT's worst drawdown?

CAT's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 73.4%, from July 2007 to March 2009. It took 18 months from the low to climb back to its old high.

What were CAT's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, CAT's best year was 2003, when it returned 86.1%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -36.8%.

Is there a better investment than CAT?

Looking beyond its popular alternatives, ESLT (aerospace & defense) earned more for the risk it took than CAT over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 35.4%, against 43.4% for CAT. Few investments have done better on both counts: only five of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CAT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them HSBC, MUFG and MCK.

Is CAT more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. CAT's volatility over the past 5 years was 31.9%, 1.9 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CAT's return lands within 31.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is CAT's Sharpe ratio?

CAT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.01, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CAT earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is CAT with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, CAT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.65 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CAT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CAT holding.

What are the best alternatives to CAT?

None of the 20 popular alternatives we compared outperformed CAT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about CAT's strength than about its alternatives.

Did CAT outperform the S&P 500?

CAT finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 14 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +60.3%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did CAT do in stock market crashes?

CAT fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in eight. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when CAT fell 73.3% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.

What diversifies CAT?

These had a low correlation with CAT over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.46), DXJ (correlation 0.46) and FDL (correlation 0.49); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.38), MCK (correlation 0.15) and MPC (correlation 0.26). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

How we measure

More research

Popular alternatives to CAT

Other stocks and ETFs