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Relative Intelligence · Independent Power Producers

How Vistra (VST) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on VST alone. It places VST (Vistra Corp.) against 19 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where VST stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: VST's full trading record, from October 2016 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

Data as of October 20, 2026. Full tables and charts read best on a larger screen.

Rank the market against VST →Chart VST vs. 19 alternatives →
On this page12 sections

Key findings

How much would $10,000 in VST have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in VST over the past 9 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of VST over the same span and VST's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period. A second view covers the past 5 years, the period the better options further down the page are judged on. It shows not only where each investment ended up but also how smooth or uneven the path was.

Note: VST began trading on October 5, 2016, so the chart cannot reach back to the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs. It covers the most recent 9 years of VST's record, starting at the end of September 2017.

Choose a period

From the end of September 2017 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 110 of the 2,804 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of VST; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000$200,000$500,00020172019202120232025$10,000$100,00020172019202120232025
  • NVDA$519,069+5,091% total · +55.1% a year
  • STX$389,161+3,792% total · +50.2% a year
  • LPG$189,861+1,799% total · +38.7% a year
  • PWR$175,322+1,653% total · +37.5% a year
  • CCJ$93,092+831% total · +28.1% a year
  • VST$86,899+769% total · +27.2% a year
  • MSFT$75,717+657% total · +25.2% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$34,839+248% total · +14.9% a year
  • SO$24,273+143% total · +10.4% a year
  • AEP$23,136+131% total · +9.8% a year
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From the end of September 2021 to the end of September 2026. The scale is logarithmic, so equal steps up the chart are equal percentage gains. Hover over a fund in the key to pick out its line. 40 of the 3,628 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that traded the whole period ended ahead of VST; the chart shows 5, closest alternatives first. The other 3 lines are popular alternatives, shown for context.

$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000202120222023202420252026$10,000$20,000$50,000$100,000202120222023202420252026
  • STX$128,799+1,188% total · +66.7% a year
  • ATI$113,890+1,039% total · +62.7% a year
  • NVDA$110,811+1,008% total · +61.8% a year
  • SEI$101,108+911% total · +58.8% a year
  • LPG$96,257+863% total · +57.3% a year
  • VST$88,175+782% total · +54.6% a year
  • PWR$56,870+469% total · +41.6% a year
  • SPY (S&P 500)$19,000+90.0% total · +13.7% a year
  • MSFT$18,958+89.6% total · +13.6% a year
  • AEP$17,493+74.9% total · +11.8% a year
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VST at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout. These figures serve as the baseline for every comparison that follows.

Note: VST began trading on October 5, 2016, so every figure here, including its worst decline, covers only the time since then. None of them reflect the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs.

The company

Market value
$50B
Industry
Independent Power Producers
Price history from
October 2016

Returns

Past 1 year
−22.2%total return
Past 3 years
+383%+69.0% a year
Past 5 years
+748%+53.4% a year
Past 10 years
+1,195%+29.2% a year
Best calendar year
+262%2024
Worst calendar year
−11.9%2020
Losing years
1 of 9full calendar years

Risk

Volatility
48.6%typical yearly swing, 5 years
Sharpe ratio
1.13return per unit of risk, 5 years
Worst decline ever
−53.3%Nov 2019 to Mar 2020
From its all-time high
−30.6%below the peak

VST against the whole market

Where VST ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

How does VST rank among all stocks?

This section ranks VST on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history. Where the comparisons with its popular alternatives show how VST stacks up against its peers, these rankings show where it stands in the market as a whole.

Ranked against U.S.-listed stocks worth at least $300M that have enough history for each measure, so the count changes from row to row; smaller stocks are left out. Lower volatility and smaller declines rank higher.

MeasureVSTRankStanding
1-year return−22.2%2,695 of 3,287bottom 19%
3-year return+383%162 of 3,017top 5%
5-year return+748%35 of 2,893top 1%
10-year return+1,195%79 of 2,202top 4%
Volatility, 5 years48.6%1,863 of 2,893bottom 37%
Sharpe ratio, 5 years1.1342 of 2,893top 1%

What has beaten VST on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer). VST sits where the dashed lines cross. Anything in the green box above and to the left earned more than VST with smaller swings, a better trade-off over this period on both counts. Past results are no promise, but a name in the box is worth a closer look.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested, and volatility the annualized swing in daily prices, both over 5 years. Labeled dots are the strongest picks from the table below and the names called out above, colored by how close they sit to VST; faint dots are 1 more of the 3 in the green region (the strongest, one per fund family). 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million were screened. Hover over a dot for its figures.

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than VSTINSW: +56.5% a year, volatility 40.5%VST: +53.4% a year, volatility 48.6%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%SEI: +55.4% a year, volatility 69.4%ATI: +61.8% a year, volatility 42.9%NVDA: +58.0% a year, volatility 51.9%LPG: +54.6% a year, volatility 43.6%STX: +57.4% a year, volatility 48.7%CLS: +101% a year, volatility 59.7%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%VSTSPY (S&P 500)SEIATINVDALPGCLSLLY0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100%120%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsMore return, less volatility than VSTINSW: +56.5% a year, volatility 40.5%VST: +53.4% a year, volatility 48.6%SPY (S&P 500): +12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%SEI: +55.4% a year, volatility 69.4%ATI: +61.8% a year, volatility 42.9%NVDA: +58.0% a year, volatility 51.9%LPG: +54.6% a year, volatility 43.6%STX: +57.4% a year, volatility 48.7%CLS: +101% a year, volatility 59.7%LLY: +40.7% a year, volatility 32.8%VSTSPY (S&P 500)SEIATILPGCLSLLY
  • Same and neighboring categories, and shared themes
  • The whole market
  • Others in the green region

Is there a better investment than VST?

Investments that beat VST over the past 5 years on return, volatility, drawdowns, consistency, crash losses or fees, from its popular alternatives out to the whole market.

How this works

The table below lists investments that beat VST over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes. It checks VST's popular alternatives first, then the rest of its own and neighboring categories, then every stock and fund worth at least $500 million, and shows the strongest few in each group. The full list of those with a higher return and lower volatility than VST follows the table.

Annual return is the annualized total return with dividends reinvested. Annual return, volatility and the Sharpe ratio cover 5 years; the worst decline covers the past 10 years. Green marks a better figure than VST's. "On the frontier" means no other option shown or tested earned more with less volatility. Funds that hold the same thing are shown once. Beyond the popular alternatives, nothing with more than 1.5× VST's volatility counts as better.

These figures cover the past 5 years. Green marks a better figure than VST's.

Screen the whole market against VST for any period in BetterThanSPYOpen these 8 in EasyCompare
InvestmentWhy it is betterPast 5 yearsDownsideLong runFit
Annual return?higher is betterVolatility?lower is calmerSharpe?return per unit of riskWorst decline?past 10 years10Y returntotalCorr. with VST?lower diversifies moreExpenseper year
VSTVistra Corp. · this page
+53.4%48.6%1.13−53.3%+1,195%1.00—
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF · S&P 500
+12.7%17.1%0.79−33.7%+321%0.490.09%
Same and neighboring categories, and shared themesbest 1 shownEverything else in Independent Power Producers and the categories next to it (Electric Utilities, Renewable Energy, Electrical Equipment), plus VST's specific themes. 1 of 46 passed at least one test.
SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. · Energy Infrastructure · Natural Gas Power theme
Higher return in most periods+55.4%69.4%0.98−79.5%—0.19—
The whole marketbest 6 shownEvery other stock and fund worth at least $500 million. 21 of 3,571 passed at least one test.
ATIATI Inc. · Metals & Mining
On the frontierHigher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+61.8%42.9%1.34−82.4%+929%0.29—
NVDANVIDIA Corporation · Semiconductors
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+58.0%51.9%1.14−66.3%+13,019%0.34—
LPGDorian LPG Ltd. · Oil & Gas Midstream
Higher return, lower volatilityHigher return in most periods+54.6%43.6%1.22−62.9%+1,821%0.10—
STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc · Computer Hardware
Higher return, similar volatilityHigher return in most periods+57.4%48.7%1.18−57.0%+2,698%0.25—
CLSCelestica Inc. · Electronics Manufacturing
On the frontierHigher return in most periods+101%59.7%1.47−80.6%+2,771%0.49—
LLYEli Lilly and Company · Pharmaceuticals
On the frontierSmaller losses in recent crashes+40.7%32.8%1.21−34.5%+1,807%0.08—
What these numbers mean for VST
Annual return
VST returned 53.4% a year over the past 5 years with dividends reinvested, against 12.7% a year for the S&P 500. At that pace, $10,000 became about $84,800. Annual return is the steady yearly rate that would produce the same total result, so investments held over the same span compare fairly. Guide: What is performance and return? →
Volatility
VST's volatility over the past 5 years was 48.6%, 2.8 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, VST's return lands within 48.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump. Guide: Understanding and measuring risk (volatility) →
Sharpe ratio
VST's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.13, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so VST earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings. Guide: Balancing reward with risk (Sharpe ratio) →
Worst decline
VST's worst fall from a peak to a low over the past 10 years was 53.3%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. Losses and gains are not symmetric: climbing back from a 53.3% fall takes a 114% gain. Guide: Market crash risk and tail risk →
Correlation
Over the past 5 years, VST's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.49 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against VST instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a VST holding. Guide: Correlation and diversification →
Show all 3 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million that earned more than VST with less volatility

Out of 3,633 tested over 5 years. Best first; funds that hold the same thing are listed once.

#InvestmentFound inAnnual returnVolatilitySharpeWorst decline10Y returnCorr. with VSTExpense
1
ATIATI Inc. · Metals & Mining
Whole market+61.8%42.9%1.34−82.4%+929%0.29—
2
LPGDorian LPG Ltd. · Oil & Gas Midstream
Whole market+54.6%43.6%1.22−62.9%+1,821%0.10—
3
INSWInternational Seaways, Inc. · Oil & Gas
Whole market+56.5%40.5%1.31−57.4%—0.05—

VST against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against VST, compared period by period and year by year.

How do VST's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings. Investments toward the upper left earned more for a smoother ride, and those toward the lower right earned less for a rougher one. The dashed lines cross at VST, which divides the map into what did better or worse on each measure.

Green points earned more than VST with less volatility; red points earned less with more. Hover over a point for its figures. Total returns with dividends reinvested, annualized.

15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityVST: 53.4% a year, volatility 48.6%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%CCJ: 24.9% a year, volatility 49.3%PWR: 39.3% a year, volatility 37.2%MSFT: 12.5% a year, volatility 28.2%AEP: 12.4% a year, volatility 20.2%SO: 11.3% a year, volatility 18.8%WEC: 7.2% a year, volatility 19.0%DUK: 7.5% a year, volatility 18.0%AES: −6.0% a year, volatility 37.3%PPL: 7.1% a year, volatility 18.9%D: 0.5% a year, volatility 22.7%ETR: 19.2% a year, volatility 22.4%NEE: 1.5% a year, volatility 26.8%EIX: 4.1% a year, volatility 28.5%PEG: 5.8% a year, volatility 20.6%PCG: 3.2% a year, volatility 29.3%NRG: 21.9% a year, volatility 41.8%VSTSPY (S&P 500)CCJPWRMSFTWECDUKAESDETRNEEEIXPEGNRG10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%−10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%Volatility over 5 years (annualized)Annual return over 5 yearsHigher return, lower volatilityLower return, higher volatilityVST: 53.4% a year, volatility 48.6%SPY (S&P 500): 12.7% a year, volatility 17.1%CCJ: 24.9% a year, volatility 49.3%PWR: 39.3% a year, volatility 37.2%MSFT: 12.5% a year, volatility 28.2%AEP: 12.4% a year, volatility 20.2%SO: 11.3% a year, volatility 18.8%WEC: 7.2% a year, volatility 19.0%DUK: 7.5% a year, volatility 18.0%AES: −6.0% a year, volatility 37.3%PPL: 7.1% a year, volatility 18.9%D: 0.5% a year, volatility 22.7%ETR: 19.2% a year, volatility 22.4%NEE: 1.5% a year, volatility 26.8%EIX: 4.1% a year, volatility 28.5%PEG: 5.8% a year, volatility 20.6%PCG: 3.2% a year, volatility 29.3%NRG: 21.9% a year, volatility 41.8%VSTSPY (S&P 500)CCJPWRSOWECDUKAESDETRNEEEIXNRG
All figures
InvestmentAnnual returnVolatility
VST This pageVistra Corp.+53.4%48.6%
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.+39.3%37.2%
CCJ Cameco Corporation+24.9%49.3%
NRG NRG Energy, Inc.+21.9%41.8%
ETR Entergy Corporation+19.2%22.4%
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF+12.7%17.1%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation+12.5%28.2%
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.+12.4%20.2%
SO The Southern Company+11.3%18.8%
DUK Duke Energy Corporation+7.5%18.0%
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc.+7.2%19.0%
PPL PPL Corporation+7.1%18.9%
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated+5.8%20.6%
EIX Edison International+4.1%28.5%
PCG PG&E Corporation+3.2%29.3%
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc.+1.5%26.8%
D Dominion Energy, Inc.+0.5%22.7%
AES The AES Corporation−6.0%37.3%
Open these 18 in EasyCompare

Has VST consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares VST with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years. Counting how often an alternative earned more than VST helps separate lasting outperformance from a single strong stretch.

A green cell means the alternative earned more than VST over that period. "Qualified" marks those that did so in at least 3 of 5 short-term periods and 2 of 3 long-term periods.

InvestmentPeriods outperformed Short termLong termRisk · 5 yearsFund
1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y10YVolatilitylower is calmerSharpehigher is betterWorst declinepast 10 yearsExpenseAssetsOverlapsame sectors
VST Vistra Corp. (this page)—+6.8%−4.7%−5.5%−8.6%−22.2%+383%+748%+1,195%48.6%1.13−53.3%—$50B—
TLN Independent Power ProducersTalen Energy Corporation4/5 short1/3 long+16.5%−3.0%+0.9%−11.9%−14.1%+572%————−36.7%—$17B—
PWR Engineering & ConstructionQuanta Services, Inc.3/5 short1/3 long−7.2%−5.8%−1.5%+35.6%+35.3%+263%+425%+2,045%37.2%1.08−45.5%—$90B—
MSFT Software - InfrastructureMicrosoft Corporation4/5 short0/3 long+6.0%+32.5%+27.7%+13.2%+3.8%+66.6%+80.3%+946%28.2%0.56−37.1%—$3.9T—
AEP Regulated ElectricAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.4/5 short0/3 long+6.0%−2.2%−3.1%+12.4%+11.3%+93.3%+79.4%+185%20.2%0.68−32.9%—$69B—
SO Regulated ElectricThe Southern Company4/5 short0/3 long+6.1%−3.2%−1.4%+6.6%−4.1%+53.0%+70.9%+170%18.8%0.67−38.4%—$104B—
WEC Regulated ElectricWEC Energy Group, Inc.4/5 short0/3 long+5.1%−2.5%−3.9%+4.8%−4.3%+49.1%+41.6%+159%19.0%0.46−32.3%—$35B—
DUK Regulated ElectricDuke Energy Corporation4/5 short0/3 long+3.9%−2.7%−3.5%+6.0%−2.6%+56.1%+43.9%+132%18.0%0.50−37.4%—$95B—
AES Diversified UtilitiesThe AES Corporation4/5 short0/3 long+0.9%+2.4%+5.9%+4.8%+9.2%+25.5%−26.8%+81.5%37.3%0.02−63.4%—$11B—
PPL Regulated ElectricPPL Corporation3/5 short0/3 long+4.7%−1.5%−9.2%+0.9%−5.2%+60.8%+40.7%+59.2%18.9%0.46−48.7%—$26B—
D Regulated ElectricDominion Energy, Inc.3/5 short0/3 long0.0%−9.8%+3.0%+9.4%+6.6%+80.8%+2.7%+32.5%22.7%0.14−52.2%—$55B—
ETR Regulated ElectricEntergy Corporation2/5 short0/3 long+3.5%−5.5%−6.4%+14.1%+11.4%+149%+141%+311%22.4%0.90−42.0%—$50B—
NEE Regulated ElectricNextEra Energy, Inc.2/5 short0/3 long−1.0%−9.7%−13.0%−0.4%−4.3%+65.9%+7.5%+228%26.8%0.19−45.0%—$165B—
EIX Regulated ElectricEdison International2/5 short0/3 long+4.6%−25.6%−17.6%−2.0%+3.6%+5.2%+22.0%+21.5%28.5%0.29−43.9%—$22B—
GEV Industrial - MachineryGE Vernova Inc.2/5 short0/3 long−5.9%−17.5%−10.0%+31.3%+50.1%—————−38.3%—$237B—
CCJ UraniumCameco Corporation1/5 short0/3 long−13.6%−5.1%−34.9%−18.3%−6.1%+112%+203%+961%49.3%0.70−57.2%—$35B—
PEG Regulated ElectricPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated1/5 short0/3 long+2.2%−8.1%−10.7%−10.2%−13.6%+31.9%+32.3%+142%20.6%0.38−40.8%—$35B—
PCG Regulated ElectricPG&E Corporation1/5 short0/3 long+2.3%−24.1%−23.5%−18.2%−19.9%−16.0%+16.9%−77.2%29.3%0.26−94.7%—$35B—
CEG Independent Power ProducersConstellation Energy Corporation1/5 short0/3 long−1.2%+2.3%−9.7%−29.0%−29.7%+135%————−50.7%—$92B—
NRG Independent Power ProducersNRG Energy, Inc.0/5 short0/3 long−5.3%−24.8%−37.3%−40.5%−40.7%+155%+169%+933%41.8%0.69−48.8%—$21B—
Open these 20 in EasyCompare

How did VST do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2017, along with where VST ranked among its popular alternatives each year. Annual results reveal how consistently each one kept pace with VST and how far its good and bad years diverged, detail that multiyear averages tend to smooth over.

Note: VST began trading on October 5, 2016, so the table starts with 2017, its first full calendar year, and cannot show how it fared during the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs.

Newest year first. Green marks a year in which the fund came out ahead of VST; gray means the two finished within a fraction of a point. The rank row places VST among the alternatives that traded the full year; dark green is the top quarter and red the bottom quarter.

InvestmentYears ahead of VST202520242023202220212020201920182017
VST This pageVistra Corp.—+17.7%+262%+70.7%+5.1%+19.5%−11.9%+2.5%+24.9%+18.2%
Rank among alternativesTop quarter in 4 of 910 of 201 of 192 of 186 of 175 of 1714 of 1714 of 173 of 176 of 17
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF4 of 9+17.7%+24.9%+26.2%−18.2%+28.7%+18.3%+31.2%−4.6%+21.7%
TLN Talen Energy Corporation1 of 2+86.1%+215%———————
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.5 of 9+33.7%+46.6%+51.7%+24.6%+59.5%+77.8%+35.8%−22.9%+12.2%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation4 of 9+15.6%+12.9%+58.2%−28.0%+52.5%+42.5%+57.6%+20.8%+40.8%
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.5 of 9+29.4%+18.2%−11.0%+10.4%+10.7%−9.0%+30.5%+5.4%+19.9%
SO The Southern Company3 of 9+9.5%+21.7%+2.2%+8.2%+16.4%+0.6%+51.6%−3.8%+2.4%
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc.2 of 9+16.0%+16.1%−7.0%−0.5%+8.6%+2.5%+37.0%+7.9%+17.1%
DUK Duke Energy Corporation2 of 9+12.7%+15.6%−1.6%+2.0%+19.1%+4.8%+10.3%+7.4%+12.9%
AES The AES Corporation5 of 9+18.3%−30.4%−30.9%+21.7%+6.0%+22.2%+42.1%+38.9%−2.7%
PPL PPL Corporation1 of 9+11.4%+24.0%−3.8%+0.4%+12.8%−16.9%+33.4%−3.0%−5.2%
D Dominion Energy, Inc.2 of 9+14.0%+20.4%−19.2%−19.1%+8.1%−5.3%+21.5%−7.6%+9.9%
ETR Entergy Corporation2 of 9+25.4%+55.9%−6.1%+3.5%+17.1%−13.7%+44.3%+10.6%+15.9%
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc.4 of 9+15.5%+21.5%−25.3%−8.5%+23.4%+30.0%+42.6%+14.3%+34.4%
EIX Edison International1 of 9−20.4%+15.3%+17.4%−2.6%+13.6%−12.8%+37.6%−6.7%−9.5%
GEV GE Vernova Inc.1 of 1+99.0%————————
CCJ Cameco Corporation4 of 9+78.4%+19.5%+90.5%+4.3%+63.2%+51.5%−21.1%+23.5%−9.0%
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated3 of 9−1.9%+42.6%+3.6%−5.1%+18.3%+2.4%+17.1%+4.7%+21.8%
PCG PG&E Corporation2 of 9−19.7%+12.2%+10.9%+33.9%−2.5%+14.5%−54.2%−47.0%−24.5%
CEG Constellation Energy Corporation1 of 3+58.8%+92.7%+37.3%——————
NRG NRG Energy, Inc.4 of 9+78.9%+78.5%+69.4%−23.5%+18.5%−2.1%+0.7%+39.6%+134%
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Risk and diversification

How VST has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

What were VST's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high. This section presents VST's five deepest drawdowns since it began trading in 2016, alongside the S&P 500's return over the same dates, and how long each took to recover. Together, these figures show how much an investor could have lost and how long it took to get back to even.

Note: VST began trading on October 5, 2016, so this list cannot include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs. The crash tests on this page show how older funds and the S&P 500 fared through those years.

Green means VST fell less than the S&P 500 over the same dates. Based on daily closing prices with dividends reinvested.

DuringVST fellS&P 500, same datesPeakLowTime to the lowBack at the peakTime to recover
Covid crash−53.3%−21.5%Nov 2019Mar 20204 monthsApr 20222.1 years
No named crash−48.8%−16.9%Jan 2025Apr 20253 monthsJun 20252 months
No named crash−38.0%+10.7%Sep 2025May 20268 monthsNot yet—
No named crash−34.9%+2.6%May 2024Jul 20242 monthsSep 20242 months
2022 bear market−22.1%−13.4%Jun 2022Sep 20223 monthsJul 202310 months

How did VST do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far VST, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000. A smaller decline means an investment held up better, and comparing results across crashes shows whether that resilience was consistent or a one-off.

Note: VST began trading on October 5, 2016, so its row reads "Not yet trading" for the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs. The older alternatives and the S&P 500 show how those crashes played out.

Newest crash first. Each figure is the fund's deepest fall within the crash window; green means a smaller fall than VST.

InvestmentHeld up better2023 regional bank crisisMar 20232022 bear marketJan 2022Covid crashFeb 2020Late-2018 sell-offSep 2018February 2018 volatility shockFeb 20182015 China and oil sell-offAug 20152011 euro debt crisisJul 20112010 flash crashMay 20102008 financial crisisOct 2007Dot-com bustMar 2000
VST This pageVistra Corp.—−7.1%−22.1%−45.7%−17.3%−8.8%Not yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet tradingNot yet trading
SPY S&P 500State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF3 of 5−3.4%−24.5%−33.7%−19.3%−6.5%−12.8%−17.9%−1.5%−55.2%−47.5%
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.3 of 5−4.0%−21.7%−40.8%−22.1%−7.1%−35.4%−21.6%−1.7%−69.6%−97.1%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation3 of 5−2.0%−31.0%−27.7%−18.2%−7.4%−14.4%−14.1%−2.6%−57.9%−62.9%
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.4 of 5−2.0%−22.3%−32.4%−8.5%−5.5%−10.6%−9.3%−0.8%−48.0%−62.8%
SO The Southern Company4 of 5−1.2%−23.3%−38.1%−9.6%−1.9%−9.4%−5.2%0.0%−30.4%−19.0%
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc.4 of 5−1.9%−23.6%−32.3%−9.8%−4.0%−9.6%−12.0%−0.6%−24.4%−21.3%
DUK Duke Energy Corporation4 of 5−1.9%−24.1%−37.4%−7.7%−2.9%−13.7%−8.8%0.0%−38.9%−63.5%
AES The AES Corporation1 of 5−7.4%−27.3%−54.3%−13.7%−9.5%−34.0%−26.7%−7.6%−78.2%−98.4%
PPL PPL Corporation3 of 5−1.9%−21.8%−47.1%−13.1%−5.3%−11.7%−11.5%0.0%−53.5%−55.4%
D Dominion Energy, Inc.4 of 5−3.2%−28.0%−33.3%−7.5%−3.1%−13.3%−7.7%0.0%−41.4%−44.4%
ETR Entergy Corporation4 of 5−3.0%−21.9%−41.3%−8.0%−4.1%−13.2%−13.4%−1.1%−49.4%−28.4%
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc.4 of 5−1.7%−24.0%−35.6%−8.2%−6.9%−12.9%−12.8%0.0%−47.9%−32.2%
EIX Edison International3 of 5−3.0%−22.0%−42.7%−33.1%−5.7%−11.3%−15.2%0.0%−57.7%−69.5%
CCJ Cameco Corporation4 of 5−3.5%−34.8%−40.3%−14.9%−7.9%−26.4%−38.7%−0.3%−76.9%−47.3%
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated4 of 5−3.6%−27.3%−38.0%−10.8%−6.6%−14.8%−13.4%−1.0%−51.0%−48.3%
PCG PG&E Corporation2 of 5−3.4%−24.9%−59.7%−63.8%−7.7%−12.5%−8.8%−0.3%−36.9%−78.8%
CEG Constellation Energy Corporation1 of 1−2.0%—————————
NRG NRG Energy, Inc.2 of 5−9.0%−24.0%−44.2%−15.1%−8.4%−57.3%−21.6%−0.5%−67.6%—
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How closely does VST move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell. An investment that captures more of the gains than the losses has compounded ahead of the market over time. This section compares VST with its popular alternatives on both measures, and on beta (how strongly each has moved with the market), over the past 5 years.

Monthly total returns over the past 5 years, measured against SPY. 100% capture or a beta of 1.00 means moving in line with the S&P 500. Green marks a better figure than VST's: more upside, less downside or a higher capture ratio. Sorted by capture ratio.

InvestmentUpside captureDownside captureCapture ratioBeta
VST This pageVistra Corp.187%61%3.061.37
ETR Entergy Corporation64%8%8.210.46
PWR Quanta Services, Inc.146%46%3.201.26
SO The Southern Company44%21%2.070.31
CCJ Cameco Corporation137%71%1.931.18
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.55%31%1.770.48
NRG NRG Energy, Inc.119%92%1.301.17
DUK Duke Energy Corporation43%36%1.210.36
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc.47%47%0.980.45
MSFT Microsoft Corporation115%126%0.911.10
PPL PPL Corporation60%66%0.900.57
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated48%55%0.880.50
EIX Edison International43%54%0.790.63
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc.63%102%0.620.65
D Dominion Energy, Inc.53%92%0.580.64
AES The AES Corporation70%153%0.460.98
PCG PG&E Corporation17%-2%—0.28
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What diversifies VST?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions). This section lists large ETFs and stocks whose returns have had a low correlation with VST's. Because such investments tend not to fall at the same time, pairing VST with them can reduce a portfolio's overall swings.

Only ETFs with at least $1.0B in assets and stocks worth at least $10B, with a correlation below 0.5 over the past 5 years and a positive return, are included, ranked by Sharpe ratio; funds that hold the same thing are shown once. The year columns are the years in which VST lost money. The last two columns show a portfolio that is 80% VST and 20% the other investment, rebalanced monthly.

ETFs

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe202080/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
VST Vistra Corp. (this page)1.00+748%1.13−11.9%43.6%+54.5%
LVHI InternationalFranklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF0.28+119%1.48−9.0%35.4%+48.0%
DXJ InternationalWisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund0.25+225%1.34+3.9%35.6%+50.4%
EMLP Broad MarketFirst Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund0.48+101%1.04−13.4%36.3%+47.4%
HDV Dividend & IncomeiShares Core High Dividend ETF0.27+83.3%1.00−6.5%35.7%+46.8%
SMH TechnologyVanEck Semiconductor ETF0.35+323%0.97+55.5%37.9%+53.1%
DBEF InternationalXtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF0.40+85.0%0.96+2.1%35.8%+47.0%
GLD CommoditiesSPDR Gold Shares0.10+126%0.96+24.8%35.4%+48.7%
XLE EnergyState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF0.16+177%0.93−32.7%36.1%+50.0%

Stocks

InvestmentCorrelation5Y returnSharpe202080/20 mix volatility80/20 mix annual return
VST Vistra Corp. (this page)1.00+748%1.13−11.9%43.6%+54.5%
CAH Medical - DistributionCardinal Health, Inc.0.13+479%1.55+10.1%35.9%+53.4%
CLS Hardware, Equipment & PartsCelestica Inc.0.49+3,143%1.47−2.4%41.9%+67.3%
MCK Medical - DistributionMcKesson Corporation0.19+413%1.44+27.1%36.1%+52.5%
MPC Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingMarathon Petroleum Corporation0.14+690%1.41−27.4%36.4%+56.0%
ATI Manufacturing - Metal FabricationATI Inc.0.29+1,008%1.34−18.8%38.7%+59.3%
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Common questions

What was VST's worst drawdown?

VST's deepest decline since it began trading in 2016 was 53.3%, from November 2019 to March 2020. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because VST launched in October 2016, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs.

What were VST's best and worst years?

Over nine full calendar years, VST's best year was 2024, when it returned 262%. Its worst was 2020, with a return of -11.9%.

Is there a better investment than VST?

Looking beyond its popular alternatives, SEI (natural gas power theme) was ahead of VST in most short and long periods, though with much bigger swings (69.4% volatility against 48.6%). Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VST with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them ATI, INSW and LPG.

Is VST more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. VST's volatility over the past 5 years was 48.6%, 2.8 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, VST's return lands within 48.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

What is VST's Sharpe ratio?

VST's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.13, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so VST earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

How correlated is VST with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, VST's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.49 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against VST instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a VST holding.

What are the best alternatives to VST?

None of the 19 popular alternatives we compared outperformed VST in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about VST's strength than about its alternatives.

Did VST outperform the S&P 500?

VST finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in four of nine full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +17.7%, against +17.7% for the index.

How did VST do in stock market crashes?

VST fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of the five major crashes it has traded through, and further in three. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when VST fell 45.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

What diversifies VST?

These had a low correlation with VST over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.28), DXJ (correlation 0.25) and EMLP (correlation 0.48); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.13), CLS (correlation 0.49) and MCK (correlation 0.19). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

How we measure

More research

Popular alternatives to VST

Other stocks and ETFs