# How Walmart (WMT) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/wmt
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on WMT alone. It places WMT (Walmart Inc.) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where WMT stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: WMT's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** WMT has gone against the market, falling 7.5% over the past 6 months while the S&P 500 rose 9.1%. Its discount retail peers split over the past 6 months: AMZN (Amazon.com) rose 5.8%, while BURL (Burlington Stores) fell 25.6%.
- **Stock or market?:** WMT held up far better than its industry: it rose 5.3% over the past 3 months while the discount retail ETF XRT (State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF) fell 1.2%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Last month cut against the tape: WMT rose 9.7% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** WMT lagged its discount retail peers in 2023, then moved up the pack in 2025. That said, over the past year, WMT rose 11.0% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100.
- **Long term:** WMT turned $10,000 into $60,800 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. WMT's 10-year return of 508% puts it ahead of 86% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** WMT fell less than the S&P 500 in five of seven sell-offs, but the 2015 China and oil sell-off broke the pattern: it fell 22.3%, more than the S&P 500's 12.8%.
- **Diversification:** Over 10 years WMT kept more of the market's gains than of its losses: 74% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 36% of its losses in falling ones, with a beta of 0.53. Against the S&P 500, WMT has a correlation of 0.43 over 5 years, more closely than 59% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge.
- **Better options:** Few investments have done better on both counts: only two of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than WMT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them MPLX and DXJ (WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund).

## How much would $10,000 in WMT have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in WMT over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of WMT over the same span and WMT's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in WMT at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $272,033 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of WMT, and AMZN finished highest, at $11,484,924.

## WMT at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- WMT's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 50.6%, from August to December 1987. It took 19 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, WMT's best was 1998, when it returned 107%, and its worst was 2015, when it lost 26.6%. It lost money in seven of those years.
- WMT is 12.0% below its all-time high.

- Type: Stock, Consumer Staples (Discount Stores)
- Trading since: October 17, 1986
- Market value: $938B
- Volatility (5 years): 22.6%; Sharpe ratio: 0.96
- Worst decline ever: −50.6%, from August 21, 1987 to December 3, 1987; back at its high by July 21, 1989

| Period | WMT total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +9.7% |
| 3 months | +5.3% |
| 6 months | −7.5% |
| year to date | +5.2% |
| 1 year | +11.0% |
| 3 years | +130% |
| 5 years | +158% |
| 10 years | +508% |

## WMT against the whole market

Where WMT ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does WMT rank among all stocks?

This section ranks WMT on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- WMT's worst decline of the past 10 years ranks in the top 1% of the 2,187 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top fell the least.

| Measure | WMT | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +11.0% | 1,552 of 3,287 (top 48%) |
| 3-year return | +130% | 705 of 3,017 (top 24%) |
| 5-year return | +158% | 427 of 2,893 (top 15%) |
| 10-year return | +508% | 301 of 2,202 (top 14%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 22.6% | 180 of 2,893 (top 7%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.96 | 126 of 2,893 (top 5%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −25.7% | 8 of 2,187 (top 1%) |

### What has beaten WMT on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- One stock and one ETF worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than WMT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half WMT's swings, DXJ has the best return for its risk: 26.6% a year at 19.1% volatility, 16% less than WMT's 22.6%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.34 against 0.96 for WMT.

### Is there a better investment than WMT?

The table below lists investments that beat WMT over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Few investments have done better on both counts: only two of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than WMT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them MPLX and DXJ.

The 2 strongest of 2 investments that beat WMT over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with WMT | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WMT: Walmart Inc. (this page) |  | +20.8% | 22.6% | 0.96 | −25.7% | +508% |  |  |
| [MPLX](https://easycompare.io/research/mplx): MPLX Lp | Oil & Gas Midstream | +23.5% | 18.8% | 1.22 | −75.2% | +350% | 0.38 | Higher return, lower volatility |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | International Equity | +26.6% | 19.1% | 1.34 | −39.1% | +428% | 0.24 | Higher return, lower volatility |

## WMT against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against WMT, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do WMT's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- None of the 20 popular alternatives earned more than WMT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- 14 of the 20 popular alternatives earned less than WMT over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, WMT returned 20.8% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (22.6% against 17.1%).

### Has WMT consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares WMT with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- None of the 20 popular alternatives outperformed WMT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was COST.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of WMT | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WMT: Walmart Inc. (this page) | +11.0% | +130% | +158% | +508% |  |  | 0.96 |
| [COST](https://easycompare.io/research/cost): Costco Wholesale Corporation | +6.9% | +87.2% | +123% | +685% | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.82 |
| [AMZN](https://easycompare.io/research/amzn): Amazon.com, Inc. | +21.3% | +110% | +53.8% | +548% | 3/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.42 |
| PSMT: PriceSmart, Inc. | +43.2% | +153% | +135% | +124% | 3/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.75 |
| SFM: Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | −41.4% | +52.7% | +191% | +202% | 0/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.74 |
| [TGT](https://easycompare.io/research/tgt): Target Corporation | +75.1% | +58.0% | −28.5% | +207% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.00 |
| [KO](https://easycompare.io/research/ko): The Coca-Cola Company | +40.2% | +86.8% | +98.2% | +204% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| DG: Dollar General Corporation | +28.5% | +24.2% | −32.0% | +127% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.01 |
| BJ: BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | +9.0% | +47.7% | +75.3% | — | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.51 |
| GO: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | −17.4% | −52.8% | −43.5% | — | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.01 |
| [ROST](https://easycompare.io/research/rost): Ross Stores, Inc. | +51.9% | +111% | +129% | +312% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.71 |
| OLLI: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | −23.3% | +23.8% | +38.9% | +238% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.37 |
| [PG](https://easycompare.io/research/pg): The Procter & Gamble Company | +8.0% | +15.8% | +28.3% | +145% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.37 |
| [MDLZ](https://easycompare.io/research/mdlz): Mondelez International, Inc. | +5.5% | +9.2% | +21.5% | +93.4% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.29 |
| DLTR: Dollar Tree, Inc. | +26.2% | +13.1% | +23.3% | +64.7% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.31 |
| [KR](https://easycompare.io/research/kr): The Kroger Co. | −6.9% | +52.6% | +78.5% | +151% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.56 |
| [UPS](https://easycompare.io/research/ups): United Parcel Service, Inc. | +20.8% | −23.0% | −36.1% | +35.4% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.17 |
| [TJX](https://easycompare.io/research/tjx): The TJX Companies, Inc. | +3.8% | +71.6% | +147% | +361% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.93 |
| ACI: Albertsons Companies, Inc. | −28.6% | −33.6% | −29.2% | — | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.07 |
| BURL: Burlington Stores, Inc. | −3.1% | +112% | −6.2% | +240% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.19 |
| [PEP](https://easycompare.io/research/pep): PepsiCo, Inc. | −9.2% | −6.7% | −2.3% | +72.6% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.07 |

### How did WMT do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where WMT ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- WMT finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 15 of its 29 full calendar years, and ahead of it in each of the last two.
- Among its popular alternatives, COST came out ahead of WMT most often, in 20 of the 29 years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, WMT finished in the top quarter in eight of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in seven. In 2025, it ranked 5 of 21.

| Year | WMT | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +24.5% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | +74.0% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +12.9% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −0.5% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +1.9% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +23.4% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +30.1% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −3.4% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +46.6% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +16.1% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How WMT has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were WMT's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all three of WMT's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: WMT fell 42.4% from March 1993 to January 1996, while the S&P 500 rose 44.6%.
- The slowest recovery came after WMT fell 37.7% from December 1999 to October 2000; it did not regain that peak until November 2011, 11 years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −50.6% | August 21, 1987 | December 3, 1987 | July 21, 1989 | — |  |
| −42.4% | March 18, 1993 | January 18, 1996 | June 17, 1997 | +44.6% |  |
| −37.7% | December 28, 1999 | October 27, 2000 | November 8, 2011 | −4.0% | dot-com bust |
| −36.4% | January 8, 2015 | November 13, 2015 | October 10, 2017 | −0.2% | 2015 China and oil sell-off |
| −31.1% | July 16, 1990 | October 17, 1990 | February 11, 1991 | — |  |

### How did WMT do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far WMT, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- WMT fell less than the S&P 500 in seven of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when WMT fell 26.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
- Among its popular alternatives, KO held up best, falling less than WMT in six of the ten crashes they both traded through.

| Crash | Dates | WMT fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | −31.8% | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | −26.2% | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | −1.5% | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | −10.5% | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −22.3% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −4.9% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −18.3% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −13.1% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −25.7% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −0.8% | −3.4% |

### How closely does WMT move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- None of the 17 popular alternatives with the same record had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than WMT's 2.08.
- Over the past 10 years, WMT captured 74% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 36% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.53. That is a defensive profile: it gave up some of the market's upside in exchange for smaller losses.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WMT: Walmart Inc. (this page) | 74.0% | 36.0% | 0.53 |
| [COST](https://easycompare.io/research/cost): Costco Wholesale Corporation | 93.0% | 50.0% | 0.77 |
| [AMZN](https://easycompare.io/research/amzn): Amazon.com, Inc. | 134% | 139% | 1.31 |
| PSMT: PriceSmart, Inc. | 68.0% | 79.0% | 0.80 |
| SFM: Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 54.0% | 27.0% | 0.47 |
| [TGT](https://easycompare.io/research/tgt): Target Corporation | 83.0% | 87.0% | 1.00 |
| [KO](https://easycompare.io/research/ko): The Coca-Cola Company | 57.0% | 44.0% | 0.47 |
| DG: Dollar General Corporation | 46.0% | 46.0% | 0.37 |
| [ROST](https://easycompare.io/research/rost): Ross Stores, Inc. | 93.0% | 89.0% | 0.93 |
| OLLI: Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 92.0% | 100% | 0.83 |
| [PG](https://easycompare.io/research/pg): The Procter & Gamble Company | 46.0% | 41.0% | 0.41 |
| [MDLZ](https://easycompare.io/research/mdlz): Mondelez International, Inc. | 45.0% | 55.0% | 0.52 |
| DLTR: Dollar Tree, Inc. | 52.0% | 79.0% | 0.75 |
| [KR](https://easycompare.io/research/kr): The Kroger Co. | 49.0% | 36.0% | 0.40 |
| [UPS](https://easycompare.io/research/ups): United Parcel Service, Inc. | 85.0% | 149% | 1.08 |
| [TJX](https://easycompare.io/research/tjx): The TJX Companies, Inc. | 81.0% | 65.0% | 0.78 |
| BURL: Burlington Stores, Inc. | 103% | 121% | 1.22 |
| [PEP](https://easycompare.io/research/pep): PepsiCo, Inc. | 48.0% | 65.0% | 0.48 |

### What diversifies WMT?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in WMT into LVHI would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 16% over the past 5 years while keeping its annual return (+18.9% for WMT alone, +18.9% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and HDV have moved largely independently of WMT over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.37 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- CAH made money in four of the seven calendar years in which WMT lost money.

| Investment | Correlation with WMT | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in WMT's 7 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.37 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 1 of 7 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.24 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 3 of 7 |
| HDV: iShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.35 | +83.3% | 13.0% | 1.00 | 1 of 7 |
| MLPX: Global X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | 0.44 | +135% | 19.7% | 0.97 | 1 of 7 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.16 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 2 of 7 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.42 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 1 of 7 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.20 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 2 of 7 |
| SPMO: Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.37 | +136% | 20.8% | 0.93 | 0 of 7 |

## Common questions

### What was WMT's worst drawdown?

WMT's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 50.6%, from August to December 1987. It took 19 months from the low to climb back to its old high.

### What were WMT's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, WMT's best year was 1998, when it returned 107%. Its worst was 2015, with a return of -26.6%.

### Is there a better investment than WMT?

Few investments have done better on both counts: only two of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than WMT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them MPLX and DXJ.

### Is WMT more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. WMT's volatility over the past 5 years was 22.6%, 1.3 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, WMT's return lands within 22.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is WMT's Sharpe ratio?

WMT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.96, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so WMT earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is WMT with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, WMT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.43 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against WMT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a WMT holding.

### What are the best alternatives to WMT?

None of the 20 popular alternatives we compared outperformed WMT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about WMT's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did WMT outperform the S&P 500?

WMT finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 15 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +24.5%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did WMT do in stock market crashes?

WMT fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in seven of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in two. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when WMT fell 26.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.

### What diversifies WMT?

These had a low correlation with WMT over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.37), DXJ (correlation 0.24) and HDV (correlation 0.35); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.26), CLS (correlation 0.32) and MCK (correlation 0.30). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [Costco Wholesale (COST) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/cost)
- [Amazon.com (AMZN) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/amzn)
- [Target (TGT) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/tgt)
- [Coca-Cola (KO) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/ko)
- [Ross Stores (ROST) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/rost)
- [Procter & Gamble (PG) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/pg)
- [Mondelez International (MDLZ) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/mdlz)
- [Kroger (KR) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/kr)
- [United Parcel Service (UPS) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/ups)
- [TJX Companies (TJX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/tjx)
- [PepsiCo (PEP) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/pep)
- [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/schd)

## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/wmt
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against WMT live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=WMT&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research