# How Vistra (VST) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/vst
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on VST alone. It places VST (Vistra Corp.) against 19 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where VST stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: VST's full trading record, from October 2016 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** VST is 30.6% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.3% below a record. Over the past 6 months, VST fell 5.5% while the S&P 500 rose 9.1%.
- **Stock or market?:** Not a move of its own: the independent power producers ETF XLU (State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF) fell 6.1% over the past 3 months, with NEE (NextEra Energy, down 9.7%) and SO (Southern, down 3.2%), while the S&P 500 rose 3.9%. VST rose 6.8% last month as the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.2%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** VST has gone against the market, falling 22.2% over the past year while the S&P 500 rose 15.8%.
- **Long term:** VST turned $10,000 into $129,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. VST's 10-year return of 1,195% puts it ahead of 96% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** In the 2022 bear market, VST held up better than its independent power producer peers, including NEE (NextEra Energy), SO and DUK. VST fell less than the S&P 500 in two of the last three sell-offs, including the 2022 bear market (22.1% against 24.5%).
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, VST has a correlation of 0.49 over 5 years, more closely than 72% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge.
- **Better options**
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** SEI (Solaris Energy Infrastructure, natural gas power theme) was ahead of VST in most short and long periods, though with much bigger swings (69.4% volatility against 48.6%).
  - **Whole market:** Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VST with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them ATI, INSW (International Seaways) and LPG (Dorian LPG).

## How much would $10,000 in VST have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in VST over the past 9 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of VST over the same span and VST's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in VST at the end of September 2017 would have grown to $86,899 by September 2026, more than the $34,839 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of VST, and NVDA finished highest, at $519,069.

## VST at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- VST is still 30.6% below its all-time high.
- VST's deepest decline since it began trading in 2016 was 53.3%, from November 2019 to March 2020. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over nine full calendar years, VST's best was 2024, when it returned 262%, and its worst was 2020, when it lost 11.9%. It lost money in one of those years.

- Type: Stock, Utilities (Independent Power Producers)
- Trading since: October 5, 2016
- Market value: $50B
- Volatility (5 years): 48.6%; Sharpe ratio: 1.13
- Worst decline ever: −53.3%, from November 4, 2019 to March 18, 2020; back at its high by April 20, 2022

| Period | VST total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +6.8% |
| 3 months | −4.7% |
| 6 months | −5.5% |
| year to date | −8.6% |
| 1 year | −22.2% |
| 3 years | +383% |
| 5 years | +748% |
| 10 years | +1,195% |

## VST against the whole market

Where VST ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does VST rank among all stocks?

This section ranks VST on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- VST's 5-year return ranks in the top 1% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million with 5 years of history.
- VST's 1-year return ranks in the bottom 18% of the 3,287 stocks worth at least $300 million with 1 year of history.

| Measure | VST | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | −22.2% | 2,695 of 3,287 (top 82%) |
| 3-year return | +383% | 162 of 3,017 (top 6%) |
| 5-year return | +748% | 35 of 2,893 (top 2%) |
| 10-year return | +1,195% | 79 of 2,202 (top 4%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 48.6% | 1,863 of 2,893 (top 65%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 1.13 | 42 of 2,893 (top 2%) |

### What has beaten VST on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- Three stocks worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than VST over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half VST's swings, ATI has the best return for its risk: 61.8% a year at 42.9% volatility, 12% less than VST's 48.6%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.34 against 1.13 for VST.

### Is there a better investment than VST?

The table below lists investments that beat VST over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, SEI (natural gas power theme) was ahead of VST in most short and long periods, though with much bigger swings (69.4% volatility against 48.6%).
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VST with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them ATI, INSW and LPG.

The 3 strongest of 3 investments that beat VST over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with VST | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VST: Vistra Corp. (this page) |  | +53.4% | 48.6% | 1.13 | −53.3% | +1,195% |  |  |
| ATI: ATI Inc. | Metals & Mining | +61.8% | 42.9% | 1.34 | −82.4% | +929% | 0.29 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher return in most periods |
| LPG: Dorian LPG Ltd. | Oil & Gas Midstream | +54.6% | 43.6% | 1.22 | −62.9% | +1,821% | 0.10 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher return in most periods |
| INSW: International Seaways, Inc. | Oil & Gas | +56.5% | 40.5% | 1.31 | −57.4% | — | 0.05 | Higher return, lower volatility |

## VST against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against VST, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do VST's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- None of the 16 popular alternatives earned more than VST over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Over the past 5 years, VST returned 53.4% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (48.6% against 17.1%).

### Has VST consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares VST with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- None of the 19 popular alternatives outperformed VST in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was TLN.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of VST | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VST: Vistra Corp. (this page) | −22.2% | +383% | +748% | +1,195% |  |  | 1.13 |
| TLN: Talen Energy Corporation | −14.1% | +572% | — | — | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | — |
| [PWR](https://easycompare.io/research/pwr): Quanta Services, Inc. | +35.3% | +263% | +425% | +2,045% | 3/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 1.08 |
| [MSFT](https://easycompare.io/research/msft): Microsoft Corporation | +3.8% | +66.6% | +80.3% | +946% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.56 |
| [AEP](https://easycompare.io/research/aep): American Electric Power Company, Inc. | +11.3% | +93.3% | +79.4% | +185% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.68 |
| [SO](https://easycompare.io/research/so): The Southern Company | −4.1% | +53.0% | +70.9% | +170% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.67 |
| WEC: WEC Energy Group, Inc. | −4.3% | +49.1% | +41.6% | +159% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.46 |
| [DUK](https://easycompare.io/research/duk): Duke Energy Corporation | −2.6% | +56.1% | +43.9% | +132% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.50 |
| AES: The AES Corporation | +9.2% | +25.5% | −26.8% | +81.5% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.02 |
| PPL: PPL Corporation | −5.2% | +60.8% | +40.7% | +59.2% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.46 |
| [D](https://easycompare.io/research/d): Dominion Energy, Inc. | +6.6% | +80.8% | +2.7% | +32.5% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.14 |
| [ETR](https://easycompare.io/research/etr): Entergy Corporation | +11.4% | +149% | +141% | +311% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.90 |
| [NEE](https://easycompare.io/research/nee): NextEra Energy, Inc. | −4.3% | +65.9% | +7.5% | +228% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.19 |
| EIX: Edison International | +3.6% | +5.2% | +22.0% | +21.5% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.29 |
| [GEV](https://easycompare.io/research/gev): GE Vernova Inc. | +50.1% | — | — | — | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| CCJ: Cameco Corporation | −6.1% | +112% | +203% | +961% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.70 |
| PEG: Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | −13.6% | +31.9% | +32.3% | +142% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.38 |
| PCG: PG&E Corporation | −19.9% | −16.0% | +16.9% | −77.2% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.26 |
| [CEG](https://easycompare.io/research/ceg): Constellation Energy Corporation | −29.7% | +135% | — | — | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| NRG: NRG Energy, Inc. | −40.7% | +155% | +169% | +933% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.69 |

### How did VST do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2017, along with where VST ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- VST finished ahead of the S&P 500 in four of its nine full calendar years.
- Among its popular alternatives, PWR came out ahead of VST most often, in five of the nine years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, VST finished in the top quarter in four of nine years and in the bottom quarter in two. In 2025, it ranked 10 of 20.

| Year | VST | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | +262% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +70.7% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | +5.1% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +19.5% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | −11.9% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +2.5% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | +24.9% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +18.2% | +21.7% |

## Risk and diversification

How VST has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were VST's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of VST's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: VST fell 38.0% from September 2025 to May 2026, while the S&P 500 rose 10.7%.
- The slowest recovery came after VST fell 53.3% from November 2019 to March 2020; it did not regain that peak until April 2022, two years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −53.3% | November 4, 2019 | March 18, 2020 | April 20, 2022 | −21.5% | Covid crash |
| −48.8% | January 23, 2025 | April 4, 2025 | June 27, 2025 | −16.9% |  |
| −38.0% | September 22, 2025 | May 19, 2026 | not yet | +10.7% |  |
| −34.9% | May 28, 2024 | July 30, 2024 | September 20, 2024 | +2.6% |  |
| −22.1% | June 7, 2022 | September 30, 2022 | July 5, 2023 | −13.4% | 2022 bear market |

### How did VST do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far VST, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- Among its popular alternatives, AEP held up best, falling less than VST in four of the five crashes they both traded through.
- VST began trading after the 2008 financial crisis, but 16 of its popular alternatives lived through it. The mildest fall among them was WEC's 24.4%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500.
- VST fell further than the S&P 500 in three of the five crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when VST fell 45.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

| Crash | Dates | VST fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | not trading | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | not trading | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | not trading | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | not trading | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −8.8% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −17.3% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −45.7% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −22.1% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −7.1% | −3.4% |

### How closely does VST move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- Over the past 5 years, VST captured 187% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 61% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.37. Its share of the market's gains was larger than its share of the losses.
- Only ETR and PWR had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than VST's 3.06, out of 15 popular alternatives with the same record.

Measured over the past 5 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VST: Vistra Corp. (this page) | 187% | 61.0% | 1.37 |
| [PWR](https://easycompare.io/research/pwr): Quanta Services, Inc. | 146% | 46.0% | 1.26 |
| [MSFT](https://easycompare.io/research/msft): Microsoft Corporation | 115% | 126% | 1.10 |
| [AEP](https://easycompare.io/research/aep): American Electric Power Company, Inc. | 55.0% | 31.0% | 0.48 |
| [SO](https://easycompare.io/research/so): The Southern Company | 44.0% | 21.0% | 0.31 |
| WEC: WEC Energy Group, Inc. | 47.0% | 47.0% | 0.45 |
| [DUK](https://easycompare.io/research/duk): Duke Energy Corporation | 43.0% | 36.0% | 0.36 |
| AES: The AES Corporation | 70.0% | 153% | 0.98 |
| PPL: PPL Corporation | 60.0% | 66.0% | 0.57 |
| [D](https://easycompare.io/research/d): Dominion Energy, Inc. | 53.0% | 92.0% | 0.64 |
| [ETR](https://easycompare.io/research/etr): Entergy Corporation | 64.0% | 8.0% | 0.46 |
| [NEE](https://easycompare.io/research/nee): NextEra Energy, Inc. | 63.0% | 102% | 0.65 |
| EIX: Edison International | 43.0% | 54.0% | 0.63 |
| CCJ: Cameco Corporation | 137% | 71.0% | 1.18 |
| PEG: Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | 48.0% | 55.0% | 0.50 |
| PCG: PG&E Corporation | 17.0% | −2.0% | 0.28 |
| NRG: NRG Energy, Inc. | 119% | 92.0% | 1.17 |

### What diversifies VST?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in VST into MPC would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 17% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+54.5% for VST alone, +56.0% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of VST over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.48 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- In 2020, the one year VST lost money (-11.9%), GLD returned +24.8%.

| Investment | Correlation with VST | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in VST's 1 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.28 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 0 of 1 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.25 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 1 of 1 |
| EMLP: First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.48 | +101% | 14.5% | 1.04 | 0 of 1 |
| HDV: iShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.27 | +83.3% | 13.0% | 1.00 | 0 of 1 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.35 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 1 of 1 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.40 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 1 of 1 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.10 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 1 of 1 |
| [XLE](https://easycompare.io/research/xle): State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.16 | +177% | 25.5% | 0.93 | 0 of 1 |

## Common questions

### What was VST's worst drawdown?

VST's deepest decline since it began trading in 2016 was 53.3%, from November 2019 to March 2020. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because VST launched in October 2016, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or three other sell-offs.

### What were VST's best and worst years?

Over nine full calendar years, VST's best year was 2024, when it returned 262%. Its worst was 2020, with a return of -11.9%.

### Is there a better investment than VST?

Looking beyond its popular alternatives, SEI (natural gas power theme) was ahead of VST in most short and long periods, though with much bigger swings (69.4% volatility against 48.6%). Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VST with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them ATI, INSW and LPG.

### Is VST more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. VST's volatility over the past 5 years was 48.6%, 2.8 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, VST's return lands within 48.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is VST's Sharpe ratio?

VST's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.13, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so VST earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is VST with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, VST's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.49 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against VST instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a VST holding.

### What are the best alternatives to VST?

None of the 19 popular alternatives we compared outperformed VST in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about VST's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did VST outperform the S&P 500?

VST finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in four of nine full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +17.7%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did VST do in stock market crashes?

VST fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of the five major crashes it has traded through, and further in three. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when VST fell 45.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

### What diversifies VST?

These had a low correlation with VST over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.28), DXJ (correlation 0.25) and EMLP (correlation 0.48); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.13), CLS (correlation 0.49) and MCK (correlation 0.19). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [Quanta Services (PWR) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/pwr)
- [Microsoft (MSFT) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/msft)
- [American Electric Power (AEP) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/aep)
- [Southern (SO) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/so)
- [Duke Energy (DUK) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/duk)
- [Dominion Energy (D) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/d)
- [Entergy (ETR) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/etr)
- [NextEra Energy (NEE) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/nee)
- [GE Vernova (GEV) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/gev)
- [Constellation Energy (CEG) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/ceg)
- [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/schd)
- [NVIDIA (NVDA) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/nvda)

## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/vst
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against VST live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=VST&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research