# How Valero Energy (VLO) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/vlo
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on VLO alone. It places VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) against 13 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where VLO stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: VLO's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** Over the past 6 months, VLO rose 93.2% against 9.1% for the S&P 500 and 11.2% for the Nasdaq 100. Its oil & gas peers were far apart over the past 6 months, from MPC (Marathon Petroleum, up 123%) to PARR (Par Pacific, up 43.9%).
- **Stock or market?:** More than an industry move: VLO rose 38.9% over the past 3 months, against 20.3% for the oil & gas ETF CRAK (VanEck Oil Refiners ETF). The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Last month cut against the tape: VLO rose 10.2% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** VLO has run far ahead of the market, rising 176% over the past year against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (259% against 89.3%).
- **Long term:** VLO turned $10,000 into $116,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. VLO's 10-year return of 1,061% puts it ahead of 96% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** Across seven sell-offs, VLO has typically fallen 1.7 times as far as the S&P 500. The Covid crash took 61.3% off VLO, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. That was more than PSX (Phillips 66, 53.3%) but less than MPC (Marathon Petroleum, 72.4%).
- **Diversification:** VLO is a real diversifier: a correlation of 0.28 with the S&P 500 over 5 years and 0.28 with the total US market, less closely than 74% of stocks worth at least $300 million. VLO moves far less with the S&P 500 than it used to, with a correlation of 0.28 over the past 5 years against 0.66 in the 5 years before.
- **Better options:** Few investments have done better on both counts: only two of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VLO with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them MPC (Marathon Petroleum) and HWM (Howmet Aerospace).

## How much would $10,000 in VLO have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in VLO over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of VLO over the same span and VLO's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in VLO at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $1,019,941 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of VLO, and AAPL finished highest, at $20,534,853.

## VLO at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- VLO's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 81.5%, from July 2007 to November 2008. It took about six years from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, VLO's best was 1997, when it returned 209%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 68.5%. It lost money in ten of those years.
- VLO is 5.7% below its all-time high.

- Type: Stock, Energy (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
- Trading since: October 20, 1986
- Market value: $125B
- Volatility (5 years): 36.9%; Sharpe ratio: 1.18
- Worst decline ever: −81.5%, from July 10, 2007 to November 20, 2008; back at its high by February 23, 2015

| Period | VLO total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +10.2% |
| 3 months | +38.9% |
| 6 months | +93.2% |
| year to date | +166% |
| 1 year | +176% |
| 3 years | +259% |
| 5 years | +524% |
| 10 years | +1,061% |

## VLO against the whole market

Where VLO ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does VLO rank among all stocks?

This section ranks VLO on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), VLO ranks in the top 1% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.

| Measure | VLO | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +176% | 51 of 3,287 (top 2%) |
| 3-year return | +259% | 287 of 3,017 (top 10%) |
| 5-year return | +524% | 59 of 2,893 (top 3%) |
| 10-year return | +1,061% | 94 of 2,202 (top 5%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 36.9% | 1,261 of 2,893 (top 44%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 1.18 | 26 of 2,893 (top 1%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −71.9% | 1,347 of 2,187 (top 62%) |

### What has beaten VLO on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- Two stocks worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than VLO over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half VLO's swings, MPC has the best return for its risk: 51.2% a year at 33.4% volatility, 9% less than VLO's 36.9%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.41 against 1.18 for VLO.
- Among VLO's popular alternatives, MPC is in the region. MPC earned 51.2% a year against 44.2% a year for VLO, at 33.4% volatility, 9% less than VLO's 36.9%.

### Is there a better investment than VLO?

The table below lists investments that beat VLO over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Among VLO's popular alternatives, MPC earned more than VLO with less volatility over the past 5 years: 51.2% a year at 33.4% volatility, against 44.2% a year at 36.9%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, INSW (oil & gas) earned more for the risk it took than VLO over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 57.4%, against 71.9% for VLO.
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only two of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than VLO with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them MPC and HWM.

The 2 strongest of 2 investments that beat VLO over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with VLO | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VLO: Valero Energy Corporation (this page) |  | +44.2% | 36.9% | 1.18 | −71.9% | +1,061% |  |  |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Oil & Gas | +51.2% | 33.4% | 1.41 | −79.7% | +1,387% | 0.88 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher return in most periods |
| [HWM](https://easycompare.io/research/hwm): Howmet Aerospace Inc. | Aerospace & Defense | +47.3% | 32.5% | 1.36 | −68.9% | +1,028% | 0.18 | Higher return, lower volatility |

## VLO against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against VLO, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do VLO's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- Only MPC was both more rewarding and calmer than VLO over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Seven of the 13 popular alternatives earned less than VLO over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, VLO returned 44.2% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (36.9% against 17.1%).

### Has VLO consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares VLO with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- Only one of the 13 popular alternatives, MPC, outperformed VLO in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of VLO | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VLO: Valero Energy Corporation (this page) | +176% | +259% | +524% | +1,061% |  |  | 1.18 |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | +159% | +234% | +690% | +1,387% | 4/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term | consistent | 1.41 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | +78.5% | +115% | +304% | +1,424% | 3/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.80 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | +198% | +235% | +427% | +1,319% | 2/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.87 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | +189% | +89.0% | +495% | +427% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.90 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | +146% | +152% | +298% | +649% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| [PSX](https://easycompare.io/research/psx): Phillips 66 | +130% | +183% | +319% | +430% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.04 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | +132% | +226% | +332% | +524% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.82 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | +51.9% | +53.4% | +144% | +238% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.84 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | +62.4% | +76.7% | +232% | +214% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.04 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | +138% | +161% | +417% | +504% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| DAR: Darling Ingredients Inc. | +86.2% | +42.0% | −23.4% | +342% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.07 |
| [KMI](https://easycompare.io/research/kmi): Kinder Morgan, Inc. | +26.9% | +129% | +136% | +163% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.88 |
| [ADM](https://easycompare.io/research/adm): Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | +31.1% | +22.1% | +42.9% | +156% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.40 |

### How did VLO do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where VLO ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, VLO finished in the top quarter in seven of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in four. In 2025, it ranked 4 of 14.
- VLO finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 15 of its 29 full calendar years.
- Among its popular alternatives, CVI came out ahead of VLO most often, in ten of the 18 years both traded.

| Year | VLO | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +37.0% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | −2.9% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +5.9% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | +75.0% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +40.3% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | −35.7% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +30.3% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −15.7% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +40.0% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +0.7% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How VLO has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were VLO's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all four of VLO's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: VLO fell 53.3% from March 1998 to March 1999, while the S&P 500 rose 18.6%.
- The slowest recovery came after VLO fell 81.5% from July 2007 to November 2008; it did not regain that peak until February 2015, six years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −81.5% | July 10, 2007 | November 20, 2008 | February 23, 2015 | −48.7% | 2008 financial crisis |
| −71.9% | June 4, 2018 | March 23, 2020 | April 6, 2022 | −15.6% | late-2018 sell-off |
| −67.3% | July 16, 1987 | February 12, 1988 | March 23, 1989 | — |  |
| −54.1% | May 21, 2001 | October 9, 2002 | January 20, 2004 | −39.4% | dot-com bust |
| −53.3% | March 2, 1998 | March 2, 1999 | September 29, 2000 | +18.6% |  |

### How did VLO do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far VLO, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- VLO fell further than the S&P 500 in eight of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when VLO fell 61.3% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.
- Among its popular alternatives, CVX held up best, falling less than VLO in all ten crashes they both traded through.

| Crash | Dates | VLO fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | −54.1% | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | −80.7% | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | −4.3% | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | −35.6% | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −24.2% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −6.9% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −42.0% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −61.3% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −31.9% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −3.5% | −3.4% |

### How closely does VLO move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- Over the past 10 years, VLO captured 142% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 114% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.31. It amplified the market's moves in both directions.
- Only CLMT and MPC had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than VLO's 1.24, out of 13 popular alternatives with the same record.
- CLMT took just 81% of the S&P 500's losses, against 114% for VLO, while still keeping 127% of its gains.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| VLO: Valero Energy Corporation (this page) | 142% | 114% | 1.31 |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 138% | 95.0% | 1.29 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | 169% | 150% | 1.37 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | 127% | 81.0% | 1.67 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | 137% | 164% | 1.44 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | 135% | 140% | 1.21 |
| [PSX](https://easycompare.io/research/psx): Phillips 66 | 116% | 122% | 1.16 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 130% | 136% | 1.31 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | 86.0% | 94.0% | 0.89 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | 78.0% | 83.0% | 0.76 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 142% | 150% | 1.64 |
| DAR: Darling Ingredients Inc. | 118% | 127% | 1.05 |
| [KMI](https://easycompare.io/research/kmi): Kinder Morgan, Inc. | 68.0% | 82.0% | 0.82 |
| [ADM](https://easycompare.io/research/adm): Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | 72.0% | 79.0% | 0.75 |

### What diversifies VLO?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in VLO into CAH would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 16% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+45.0% for VLO alone, +45.2% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and SMH have moved largely independently of VLO over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.49 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- GLD made money in six of the ten calendar years in which VLO lost money.

| Investment | Correlation with VLO | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in VLO's 10 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.49 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 1 of 10 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.31 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 3 of 10 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.10 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 4 of 10 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.36 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 2 of 10 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.03 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 6 of 10 |
| SPMO: Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.15 | +136% | 20.8% | 0.93 | 2 of 10 |
| DFIV: Dimensional - International Value ETF | 0.45 | +99.4% | 16.4% | 0.93 | 1 of 10 |
| [VTV](https://easycompare.io/research/vtv): Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF | 0.49 | +76.6% | 13.7% | 0.90 | 5 of 10 |

## Common questions

### What was VLO's worst drawdown?

VLO's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 81.5%, from July 2007 to November 2008. It took about six years from the low to climb back to its old high.

### What were VLO's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, VLO's best year was 1997, when it returned 209%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -68.5%.

### Is there a better investment than VLO?

Among VLO's popular alternatives, MPC earned more than VLO with less volatility over the past 5 years: 51.2% a year at 33.4% volatility, against 44.2% a year at 36.9%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, INSW (oil & gas) earned more for the risk it took than VLO over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 57.4%, against 71.9% for VLO.

### Is VLO more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. VLO's volatility over the past 5 years was 36.9%, 2.2 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, VLO's return lands within 36.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is VLO's Sharpe ratio?

VLO's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.18, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so VLO earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is VLO with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, VLO's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.28 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against VLO instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a VLO holding.

### What are the best alternatives to VLO?

Of the 13 popular alternatives we compared, one outperformed VLO in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: MPC.

### Did VLO outperform the S&P 500?

VLO finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 15 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +37.0%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did VLO do in stock market crashes?

VLO fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in none of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in eight. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when VLO fell 61.3% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

### What diversifies VLO?

These had a low correlation with VLO over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.49), DXJ (correlation 0.31) and SMH (correlation 0.10); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.14), CLS (correlation 0.21) and FIX (correlation 0.12). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc)
- [Phillips 66 (PSX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/psx)
- [Chevron (CVX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx)
- [Exxonmobil (XOM) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/xom)
- [Kinder Morgan (KMI) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/kmi)
- [Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/adm)
- [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/schd)
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- [Alphabet (GOOG) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/goog)
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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/vlo
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against VLO live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=VLO&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research