# How iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/tlt
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on TLT alone. It places TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where TLT stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: TLT's full trading record, from July 2002 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **What you're buying:** TLT charges 0.15% a year; VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) tracks the same thing for 0.03%.
- **Right now:** TLT is 43.4% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.3% below a record. Over the past 6 months, TLT fell 6.1% while the S&P 500 rose 9.1%.
- **Fund or market?:** TLT fell 3.7% over the past 3 months, in line with the US bond market ETF AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF), which fell 1.7%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%.
- **Long term:** TLT turned $10,000 into $7,990 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. TLT's 10-year loss of 20.1% puts it behind 98% of the ETFs with at least $100 million in assets with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** TLT fell less than the S&P 500 in five of six sell-offs, but the 2022 bear market broke the pattern: it fell 30.0%, more than the S&P 500's 24.5%.
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, TLT has a correlation of 0.56 over 5 years, less closely than 82% of ETFs with at least $100 million in assets. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge. TLT cushions stocks less than it used to: its correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.56 over the past 5 years, from -0.28 in the 5 years before.
- **Better options**
  - **Popular alternatives:** VGSH (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF), BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) and GOVT (iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 1.9% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.7% a year at 15.7%.
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** SPSB (State Street SPDR Portfolio Short Term Corporate Bond ETF, investment grade bonds) and NEAR (iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF, short-term bonds) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. SPSB returned 2.8% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.7% a year at 15.7%.
  - **Whole market:** 406 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF), VTV (Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF) and TBB (AT&T Inc. 5.35% GLB NTS 66).

## How much would $10,000 in TLT have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in TLT over the past 23 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of TLT over the same span and TLT's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in TLT at the end of September 2003 would have grown to $19,082 by September 2026, less than the $116,093 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Six of the seven other investments on the chart ended ahead of TLT, and XLP finished highest, at $71,077.

## TLT at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the fund, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- TLT is still 43.4% below its all-time high.
- TLT's deepest decline since it began trading in 2002 was 48.4%, from August 2020 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over 23 full calendar years, TLT's best was 2011, when it returned 34.0%, and its worst was 2022, when it lost 31.2%. It lost money in seven of those years.

- Type: ETF, Bonds (Asset Management - Bonds)
- Trading since: July 30, 2002
- Assets: $47B
- Expense ratio: 0.15%
- Volatility (5 years): 15.7%; Sharpe ratio: -0.44
- Worst decline ever: −48.4%, from August 4, 2020 to October 19, 2023; not yet back at its high

| Period | TLT total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | −1.6% |
| 3 months | −3.7% |
| 6 months | −6.1% |
| year to date | −5.1% |
| 1 year | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +9.0% |
| 5 years | −33.1% |
| 10 years | −20.1% |

## TLT against the whole market

Where TLT ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does TLT rank among all ETFs?

This section ranks TLT on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every ETF worth at least $100 million with enough history.

- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), TLT ranks in the bottom 1% of the 1,560 ETFs with at least $100 million in assets.

| Measure | TLT | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | −8.8% | 2,377 of 2,485 (top 96%) |
| 3-year return | +9.0% | 1,909 of 1,949 (top 98%) |
| 5-year return | −33.1% | 1,530 of 1,560 (top 99%) |
| 10-year return | −20.1% | 943 of 958 (top 99%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 15.7% | 666 of 1,560 (top 43%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | -0.44 | 1,551 of 1,560 (top 100%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −48.4% | 779 of 951 (top 82%) |

### What has beaten TLT on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- 22 stocks and 384 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than TLT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 11% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half TLT's swings, LVHI has the best return for its risk: 17.0% a year at 11.1% volatility, 29% less than TLT's 15.7%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.48 against -0.44 for TLT.
- Among TLT's popular alternatives, VUSB, VGSH and SHY are in the region. VUSB earned 3.7% a year against a loss of 7.7% a year for TLT, at 0.9% volatility, 95% less than TLT's 15.7%.

### Is there a better investment than TLT?

The table below lists investments that beat TLT over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes, and, for funds, the same exposure at a lower expense ratio.

- Among TLT's popular alternatives, VGSH, BND and GOVT earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 1.9% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.7% a year at 15.7%.
- VGLT tracks the same thing for 0.03% a year against TLT's 0.15%, and has kept pace over the past decade: about $120 less in fees on $10,000 over 10 years.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, SPSB (investment grade bonds) and NEAR (short-term bonds) earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. SPSB returned 2.8% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.7% a year at 15.7%.

The 15 strongest of 406 investments that beat TLT over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with TLT | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) |  | −7.7% | 15.7% | -0.44 | −48.4% | −20.1% |  |  |
| [BIL](https://easycompare.io/research/bil): State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Treasury Bonds | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.05 | −0.2% | +25.8% | 0.18 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| FLOT: iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF | Floating Rate Bonds | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +35.9% | 0.12 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [BNDX](https://easycompare.io/research/bndx): Vanguard Total International Bond ETF | International Bonds | +0.2% | 4.9% | 0.06 | −16.2% | +15.0% | 0.82 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| JAAA: Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF | CLO Bonds | +5.1% | 1.7% | 2.98 | −2.6% | — | 0.24 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [MUB](https://easycompare.io/research/mub): iShares National Muni Bond ETF | Municipal Bonds | +0.3% | 4.2% | 0.09 | −13.7% | +17.8% | 0.87 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [IUSB](https://easycompare.io/research/iusb): iShares Core Universal USD Bond ETF | Total Bond Market | 0.0% | 5.9% | 0.04 | −17.9% | +16.9% | 0.93 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| FLRN: State Street SPDR Bloomberg Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF | Bonds | +4.5% | 1.7% | 2.58 | −14.7% | +35.9% | 0.17 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [VTIP](https://easycompare.io/research/vtip): Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF | Treasury Bonds | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +32.7% | 0.57 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| SPSB: State Street SPDR Portfolio Short Term Corporate Bond ETF | Investment Grade Bonds | +2.8% | 2.0% | 1.38 | −11.8% | +29.2% | 0.75 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| NEAR: iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF | Short-Term Bonds | +3.9% | 1.4% | 2.71 | −9.6% | +31.8% | 0.62 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| BLV: Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF | Long-Term Bonds | −4.6% | 12.9% | -0.30 | −38.3% | +1.8% | 0.98 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Same exposure, lower expense ratio |
| RAVI: Northern Trust Ultra-Short Fixed Income ETF | Bonds | +3.8% | 1.4% | 2.61 | −3.7% | +30.8% | 0.43 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| MEAR: iShares Short Maturity Municipal Bond Active ETF | Bonds | +2.4% | 1.0% | 2.37 | −2.7% | +19.3% | 0.67 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| SCHO: Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | Treasury Bonds | +2.0% | 2.0% | 0.96 | −5.7% | +18.9% | 0.70 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| STIP: iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | Treasury Bonds | +2.6% | 2.8% | 0.94 | −6.5% | +32.4% | 0.53 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods; Smaller losses in recent crashes |

## TLT against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against TLT, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do TLT's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- 16 of the 18 popular alternatives, led by VUSB, VGSH and SHY, were both more rewarding and calmer than TLT over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, TLT returned -7.7% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with lower volatility (15.7% against 17.1%).

### Has TLT consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares TLT with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- 18 of the 22 popular alternatives, led by TIP, VGSH and SHY, outperformed TLT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- TIP, VGSH and SHY outperformed TLT in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- VUSB, VGSH and SHY earned more for the risk they took than TLT (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of TLT | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) | −8.8% | +9.0% | −33.1% | −20.1% |  |  | -0.44 |
| TIP: iShares TIPS Bond ETF | −1.5% | +13.3% | −0.3% | +23.5% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.02 |
| VGSH: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | +1.2% | +12.5% | +9.9% | +18.8% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.95 |
| SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +1.1% | +12.1% | +9.3% | +17.7% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.89 |
| [AGG](https://easycompare.io/research/agg): iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | −1.9% | +16.2% | −1.5% | +13.3% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.02 |
| [BND](https://easycompare.io/research/bnd): Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | −2.1% | +15.7% | −1.8% | +13.2% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.03 |
| SPTI: State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | −1.9% | +13.1% | −0.4% | +12.0% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.01 |
| IEI: iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −1.9% | +12.3% | +0.6% | +11.2% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.05 |
| SCHR: Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | −1.9% | +13.1% | −0.5% | +10.8% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.01 |
| [VGIT](https://easycompare.io/research/vgit): Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF | −2.3% | +12.6% | −0.7% | +10.5% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.00 |
| MBB: iShares MBS ETF | −1.9% | +18.5% | −0.8% | +9.5% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 0.01 |
| [GOVT](https://easycompare.io/research/govt): iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | −1.8% | +12.7% | −3.5% | +7.1% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.09 |
| [IEF](https://easycompare.io/research/ief): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −4.1% | +12.4% | −8.0% | +3.0% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.18 |
| GOVI: Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | −5.2% | +11.3% | −16.5% | −4.4% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.32 |
| LQD: iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | −3.9% | +19.7% | −4.3% | +20.5% | 4/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.06 |
| TLH: iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | −6.2% | +13.8% | −22.0% | −11.7% | 4/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.34 |
| SPTL: State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | −7.3% | +11.8% | −28.8% | −15.0% | 4/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | -0.40 |
| VUSB: Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF | +3.4% | +16.1% | +19.7% | — | 5/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term | consistent | 4.22 |
| SCHQ: Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | −7.3% | +11.9% | −28.7% | — | 4/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term | consistent | -0.40 |
| VGLT: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | −7.7% | +11.3% | −29.0% | −15.2% | 1/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term |  | -0.41 |
| EDV: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | −13.8% | +5.0% | −47.4% | −34.3% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.49 |
| ZROZ: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | −14.8% | −0.1% | −52.2% | −39.6% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.50 |
| GOVZ: iShares 25+ Year Treasury STRIPS Bond ETF | −15.0% | 0.0% | −51.9% | — | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.50 |

### How did TLT do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2003, along with where TLT ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- TLT finished ahead of the S&P 500 in six of its 23 full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last five.
- Among its popular alternatives, LQD came out ahead of TLT most often, in 13 of the 23 years both traded.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, TLT finished in the top quarter in eight of 22 years and in the bottom quarter in eight. In 2025, it ranked 16 of 19.

| Year | TLT | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +4.2% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | −8.1% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +2.8% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −31.2% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | −4.6% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +18.1% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +14.1% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −1.6% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +9.2% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +1.2% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How TLT has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were TLT's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of TLT's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: TLT fell 48.4% from August 2020 to October 2023, while the S&P 500 rose 35.6%.
- The slowest recovery came after TLT fell 17.9% from July to December 2016; it did not regain that peak until July 2019, three years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −48.4% | August 4, 2020 | October 19, 2023 | not yet | +35.6% | 2022 bear market |
| −26.6% | December 30, 2008 | June 10, 2009 | August 18, 2011 | +6.9% | 2008 financial crisis |
| −20.5% | July 25, 2012 | August 21, 2013 | December 10, 2014 | +25.6% |  |
| −17.9% | July 8, 2016 | December 14, 2016 | July 2, 2019 | +6.8% |  |
| −15.8% | January 30, 2015 | June 26, 2015 | June 9, 2016 | +6.2% |  |

### How did TLT do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far TLT, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- TLT fell less than the S&P 500 in seven of the nine crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when TLT fell 16.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
- Among its popular alternatives, TIP held up best, falling less than TLT in eight of the nine crashes they both traded through.

| Crash | Dates | TLT fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | −16.2% | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | −1.3% | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | −5.0% | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −5.8% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −2.3% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −4.3% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −15.7% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −30.0% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | 0.0% | −3.4% |

### How closely does TLT move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- Over the past 10 years, TLT captured 6% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 32% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 0.16. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.
- 13 of the 15 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than TLT's 0.19, led by IEI, SPTI and SCHR.
- VGSH took just -1% of the S&P 500's losses, against 32% for TLT, while still keeping 5% of its gains.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TLT: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (this page) | 6.0% | 32.0% | 0.16 |
| TIP: iShares TIPS Bond ETF | 15.0% | 17.0% | 0.18 |
| VGSH: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 5.0% | −1.0% | 0.01 |
| SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 5.0% | −1.0% | 0.01 |
| [AGG](https://easycompare.io/research/agg): iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 12.0% | 17.0% | 0.14 |
| SPTI: State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0.05 |
| IEI: iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.04 |
| SCHR: Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. Treasury ETF | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.05 |
| MBB: iShares MBS ETF | 13.0% | 21.0% | 0.14 |
| [GOVT](https://easycompare.io/research/govt): iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 6.0% | 8.0% | 0.06 |
| [IEF](https://easycompare.io/research/ief): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 7.0% | 14.0% | 0.08 |
| GOVI: Invesco Equal Weight 0-30 Year Treasury ETF | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.10 |
| LQD: iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 25.0% | 39.0% | 0.33 |
| TLH: iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 8.0% | 27.0% | 0.14 |
| SPTL: State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF | 7.0% | 28.0% | 0.15 |
| VGLT: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 7.0% | 29.0% | 0.15 |
| EDV: Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF | 5.0% | 46.0% | 0.22 |
| ZROZ: PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund | 4.0% | 50.0% | 0.24 |

### What diversifies TLT?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in TLT into POCT would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 15% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (-8.5% for TLT alone, -4.9% for the mix).
- FIX made money in seven of the seven calendar years in which TLT lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and POCT have moved largely independently of TLT over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.49 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with TLT | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in TLT's 7 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.45 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 3 of 7 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.18 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 6 of 7 |
| POCT: Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF | 0.49 | +60.9% | 8.0% | 1.23 | 2 of 7 |
| PVAL: Putnam Focused Large Cap Value ETF | 0.48 | +111% | 15.1% | 1.07 | 1 of 7 |
| GCOW: Pacer Global Cash Cows Dividend ETF | 0.48 | +93.4% | 13.6% | 1.04 | 3 of 7 |
| EMLP: First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.43 | +101% | 14.5% | 1.04 | 4 of 7 |
| FTLS: First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF | 0.45 | +62.9% | 10.4% | 0.99 | 3 of 7 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.38 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 2 of 7 |

## Common questions

### What was TLT's worst drawdown?

TLT's deepest decline since it began trading in 2002 was 48.4%, from August 2020 to October 2023. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.

### What were TLT's best and worst years?

Over 23 full calendar years, TLT's best year was 2011, when it returned 34.0%. Its worst was 2022, with a return of -31.2%.

### Is there a better investment than TLT?

Among TLT's popular alternatives, VGSH, BND and GOVT earned more than TLT with less volatility over the past 5 years. VGSH returned 1.9% a year at 2.0% volatility, against a loss of 7.7% a year at 15.7%. VGLT tracks the same thing for 0.03% a year against TLT's 0.15%, and has kept pace over the past decade: about $120 less in fees on $10,000 over 10 years.

### Is TLT more volatile than the S&P 500?

No. TLT's volatility over the past 5 years was 15.7%, 91% of the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, TLT's return lands within 15.7% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is TLT's Sharpe ratio?

TLT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was -0.44, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so TLT earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is TLT with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, TLT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.56 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against TLT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a TLT holding.

### What are the best alternatives to TLT?

Of the 22 popular alternatives we compared, 18 outperformed TLT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: TIP, VGSH and SHY.

### Did TLT outperform the S&P 500?

TLT finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in six of 23 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +4.2%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did TLT do in stock market crashes?

TLT fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in seven of the nine major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when TLT fell 16.2% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.

### What diversifies TLT?

These had a low correlation with TLT over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.45), DXJ (correlation 0.18) and POCT (correlation 0.49); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.24), CLS (correlation 0.07) and FIX (correlation 0.19). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/agg)
- [Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/bnd)
- [Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/vgit)
- [iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (GOVT) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/govt)
- [iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/ief)
- [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/schd)
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- [Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/vti)

## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/tlt
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against TLT live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=TLT&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research