# How Phillips 66 (PSX) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/psx
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on PSX alone. It places PSX (Phillips 66) against 18 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where PSX stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: PSX's full trading record, from April 2012 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** PSX has run far ahead of the market, rising 89.2% over the past 6 months against 9.1% for the S&P 500 and 11.2% for the Nasdaq 100. Its oil & gas peers were far apart over the past 6 months, from MPC (Marathon Petroleum, up 123%) to XOM (Exxonmobil, up 22.0%).
- **Stock or market?:** PSX's 40.1% gain over the past 3 months far outran its industry: the oil & gas ETF CRAK (VanEck Oil Refiners ETF) rose 20.3%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. PSX rose 11.2% last month as the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.2%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** Over the past year, PSX rose 130% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (183% against 89.3%).
- **Long term:** PSX turned $10,000 into $53,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. PSX's 10-year return of 430% puts it ahead of 83% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** Across four sell-offs, PSX has typically fallen 1.6 times as far as the S&P 500. In the Covid crash, PSX fell 53.3%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. That was more than XOM (Exxonmobil, 47.9%) but less than PBR (Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras, 71.2%).
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, PSX has a correlation of 0.34 over 5 years, less closely than 62% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge. PSX moves far less with the S&P 500 than it used to, with a correlation of 0.34 over the past 5 years against 0.65 in the 5 years before.
- **Better options**
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** INSW (International Seaways, oil & gas) earned more for the risk it took than PSX over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 57.4%, against 64.2% for PSX.
  - **Whole market:** Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than PSX with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them GE (GE Aerospace), MCK (McKesson) and CAH (Cardinal Health).

## How much would $10,000 in PSX have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in PSX over the past 14 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of PSX over the same span and PSX's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in PSX at the end of September 2012 would have grown to $88,378 by September 2026, more than the $67,346 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of PSX, and LLY finished highest, at $323,653.

## PSX at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- PSX's deepest decline since it began trading in 2012 was 64.2%, from November 2019 to March 2020. It took 27 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 13 full calendar years, PSX's best was 2022, when it returned 49.6%, and its worst was 2020, when it lost 33.9%. It lost money in four of those years.
- PSX is 2.1% below its all-time high.

- Type: Stock, Energy (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
- Trading since: April 12, 2012
- Market value: $117B
- Volatility (5 years): 32.9%; Sharpe ratio: 1.04
- Worst decline ever: −64.2%, from November 8, 2019 to March 23, 2020; back at its high by June 6, 2022

| Period | PSX total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +11.2% |
| 3 months | +40.1% |
| 6 months | +89.2% |
| year to date | +128% |
| 1 year | +130% |
| 3 years | +183% |
| 5 years | +319% |
| 10 years | +430% |

## PSX against the whole market

Where PSX ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does PSX rank among all stocks?

This section ranks PSX on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), PSX ranks in the top 3% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.

| Measure | PSX | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +130% | 106 of 3,287 (top 4%) |
| 3-year return | +183% | 457 of 3,017 (top 16%) |
| 5-year return | +319% | 148 of 2,893 (top 6%) |
| 10-year return | +430% | 377 of 2,202 (top 18%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 32.9% | 989 of 2,893 (top 35%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 1.04 | 76 of 2,893 (top 3%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −64.2% | 1,055 of 2,187 (top 49%) |

### What has beaten PSX on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- Three stocks worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than PSX over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half PSX's swings, CAH has the best return for its risk: 42.1% a year at 24.7% volatility, 25% less than PSX's 32.9%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.55 against 1.04 for PSX.

### Is there a better investment than PSX?

The table below lists investments that beat PSX over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Among PSX's popular alternatives, MPC earned more than PSX over the past 5 years with similar volatility: 51.2% a year at 33.4% volatility, against 33.2% a year at 32.9%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, INSW (oil & gas) earned more for the risk it took than PSX over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 57.4%, against 64.2% for PSX.
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only three of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than PSX with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them GE, MCK and CAH.

The 3 strongest of 3 investments that beat PSX over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with PSX | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PSX: Phillips 66 (this page) |  | +33.2% | 32.9% | 1.04 | −64.2% | +430% |  |  |
| [CAH](https://easycompare.io/research/cah): Cardinal Health, Inc. | Health Care Distribution | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.17 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline |
| [MCK](https://easycompare.io/research/mck): McKesson Corporation | Health Care Distribution | +38.7% | 25.0% | 1.44 | −38.1% | +586% | 0.32 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline |
| [GE](https://easycompare.io/research/ge): GE Aerospace | Aerospace & Defense | +36.0% | 31.0% | 1.15 | −80.9% | +139% | 0.23 | Higher return, lower volatility |

## PSX against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against PSX, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do PSX's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- None of the 18 popular alternatives earned more than PSX over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Over the past 5 years, PSX returned 33.2% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (32.9% against 17.1%).

### Has PSX consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares PSX with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- Three of the 18 popular alternatives, MPC, VLO and PBR, outperformed PSX in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes.
- MPC outperformed PSX in every long-term period and in all but one short-term period, the most consistent record in the group.
- XOM earned more for the risk it took than PSX (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in its worst decline of the past 10 years.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of PSX | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PSX: Phillips 66 (this page) | +130% | +183% | +319% | +430% |  |  | 1.04 |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | +159% | +234% | +690% | +1,387% | 5/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | all-weather | 1.41 |
| [VLO](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo): Valero Energy Corporation | +176% | +259% | +524% | +1,061% | 3/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term | consistent | 1.18 |
| [PBR](https://easycompare.io/research/pbr): Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | +140% | +132% | +667% | +674% | 3/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term | consistent | 1.28 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | +198% | +235% | +427% | +1,319% | 2/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term |  | 0.87 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | +132% | +226% | +332% | +524% | 2/5 short-term, 3/3 long-term |  | 0.82 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | +138% | +161% | +417% | +504% | 2/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| YPF: YPF Sociedad Anónima | +102% | +313% | +971% | +173% | 0/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term |  | 1.14 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | +78.5% | +115% | +304% | +1,424% | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.80 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | +146% | +152% | +298% | +649% | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | +189% | +89.0% | +495% | +427% | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.90 |
| [COP](https://easycompare.io/research/cop): ConocoPhillips | +72.9% | +28.5% | +131% | +379% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.68 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | +62.4% | +76.7% | +232% | +214% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.04 |
| EC: Ecopetrol S.A. | +112% | +116% | +129% | +401% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.63 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | +51.9% | +53.4% | +144% | +238% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.84 |
| [EPD](https://easycompare.io/research/epd): Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | +28.4% | +65.2% | +113% | +178% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.98 |
| LYB: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | +49.0% | −15.5% | −9.4% | +38.3% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.11 |
| UGP: Ultrapar Participações S.A. | +119% | +134% | +264% | −4.0% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.83 |
| DOW: Dow Inc. | +48.8% | −25.6% | −32.7% | — | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.06 |

### How did PSX do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2013, along with where PSX ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, PSX finished in the top quarter in three of 13 years and in the bottom quarter in no. In 2025, it ranked 9 of 19.
- PSX finished ahead of the S&P 500 in five of its 13 full calendar years.
- Among its popular alternatives, MPC came out ahead of PSX most often, in eight of the 13 years both traded.

| Year | PSX | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +17.5% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | −11.6% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +33.1% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | +49.6% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +8.4% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | −33.9% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +34.0% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −12.3% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +20.9% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +9.0% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How PSX has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were PSX's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of PSX's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: PSX fell 44.4% from April 2024 to April 2025, while the S&P 500 slipped only 3.2%.
- The slowest recovery came after PSX fell 64.2% from November 2019 to March 2020; it did not regain that peak until June 2022, two years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −64.2% | November 8, 2019 | March 23, 2020 | June 6, 2022 | −27.1% | Covid crash |
| −44.4% | April 3, 2024 | April 8, 2025 | March 4, 2026 | −3.2% |  |
| −35.4% | July 31, 2018 | December 24, 2018 | October 29, 2019 | −15.8% | late-2018 sell-off |
| −32.0% | September 5, 2014 | January 15, 2015 | October 29, 2015 | 0.0% |  |
| −32.0% | June 8, 2022 | September 26, 2022 | November 11, 2022 | −10.7% | 2022 bear market |

### How did PSX do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far PSX, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- PSX fell further than the S&P 500 in five of the six crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when PSX fell 53.3% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.
- Among its popular alternatives, XOM held up best, falling less than PSX in five of the six crashes they both traded through.
- PSX began trading after the 2008 financial crisis, but 11 of its popular alternatives lived through it. The mildest fall among them was XOM's 33.7%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500.

| Crash | Dates | PSX fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | not trading | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | not trading | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | not trading | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −21.1% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −4.7% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −33.2% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −53.3% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −32.0% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −5.6% | −3.4% |

### How closely does PSX move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- PBR took just 63% of the S&P 500's losses, against 122% for PSX, while still keeping 104% of its gains.
- Over the past 10 years, PSX captured 116% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 122% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.16. It amplified the market's moves in both directions.
- Eight of the 17 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than PSX's 0.95, led by PBR, CLMT and MPC.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PSX: Phillips 66 (this page) | 116% | 122% | 1.16 |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 138% | 95.0% | 1.29 |
| [VLO](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo): Valero Energy Corporation | 142% | 114% | 1.31 |
| [PBR](https://easycompare.io/research/pbr): Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | 104% | 63.0% | 0.99 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | 127% | 81.0% | 1.67 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 130% | 136% | 1.31 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 142% | 150% | 1.64 |
| YPF: YPF Sociedad Anónima | 144% | 206% | 1.58 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | 169% | 150% | 1.37 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | 135% | 140% | 1.21 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | 137% | 164% | 1.44 |
| [COP](https://easycompare.io/research/cop): ConocoPhillips | 94.0% | 92.0% | 0.91 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | 78.0% | 83.0% | 0.76 |
| EC: Ecopetrol S.A. | 127% | 139% | 1.13 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | 86.0% | 94.0% | 0.89 |
| [EPD](https://easycompare.io/research/epd): Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | 81.0% | 94.0% | 0.93 |
| LYB: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | 80.0% | 141% | 0.91 |
| UGP: Ultrapar Participações S.A. | 58.0% | 119% | 0.98 |

### What diversifies PSX?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in PSX into DXJ would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 18% over the past 5 years for a small cut in its annual return (+34.3% for PSX alone, +33.8% for the mix).
- SMH made money in three of the four calendar years in which PSX lost money.
- Among large ETFs, DXJ, SMH and DBEF have moved largely independently of PSX over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.35 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with PSX | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in PSX's 4 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.21 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 3 of 4 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.05 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 3 of 4 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.35 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 3 of 4 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | -0.05 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 2 of 4 |
| SPMO: Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.20 | +136% | 20.8% | 0.93 | 2 of 4 |
| VLUE: iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | 0.41 | +109% | 18.4% | 0.90 | 2 of 4 |
| EWT: iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | 0.08 | +153% | 24.2% | 0.89 | 3 of 4 |
| EUFN: iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF | 0.34 | +133% | 21.8% | 0.89 | 1 of 4 |

## Common questions

### What was PSX's worst drawdown?

PSX's deepest decline since it began trading in 2012 was 64.2%, from November 2019 to March 2020. It took 27 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because PSX launched in April 2012, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or two other sell-offs.

### What were PSX's best and worst years?

Over 13 full calendar years, PSX's best year was 2022, when it returned 49.6%. Its worst was 2020, with a return of -33.9%.

### Is there a better investment than PSX?

Among PSX's popular alternatives, MPC earned more than PSX over the past 5 years with similar volatility: 51.2% a year at 33.4% volatility, against 33.2% a year at 32.9%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, INSW (oil & gas) earned more for the risk it took than PSX over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 57.4%, against 64.2% for PSX.

### Is PSX more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. PSX's volatility over the past 5 years was 32.9%, about twice the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, PSX's return lands within 32.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is PSX's Sharpe ratio?

PSX's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.04, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so PSX earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is PSX with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, PSX's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.34 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against PSX instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a PSX holding.

### What are the best alternatives to PSX?

Of the 18 popular alternatives we compared, three outperformed PSX in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, with dividends reinvested: MPC, VLO and PBR.

### Did PSX outperform the S&P 500?

PSX finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in five of 13 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +17.5%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did PSX do in stock market crashes?

PSX fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in one of the six major crashes it has traded through, and further in five. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when PSX fell 53.3% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

### What diversifies PSX?

These had a low correlation with PSX over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, DXJ (correlation 0.21), SMH (correlation 0.05) and DBEF (correlation 0.35); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.17), CLS (correlation 0.19) and FIX (correlation 0.12). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc)
- [Valero Energy (VLO) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo)
- [Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/pbr)
- [ConocoPhillips (COP) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/cop)
- [Exxonmobil (XOM) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/xom)
- [Chevron (CVX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx)
- [Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/epd)
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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/psx
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against PSX live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=PSX&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research