# How Moderna (MRNA) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/mrna
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on MRNA alone. It places MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) against 19 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where MRNA stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: MRNA's full trading record, from December 2018 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** Over the past 6 months, MRNA rose 343% against 9.1% for the S&P 500 and 11.2% for the Nasdaq 100. On the flip side, the slide is MRNA's own: it is 50.0% below its high, against 1.3% for the S&P 500.
- **Stock or market?:** MRNA held up far better than its industry: it rose 40.0% over the past month while the biotechnology ETF XBI (State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF) fell 3.2%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%. Last month cut against the tape: MRNA rose 40.0% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** MRNA has run far ahead of the market, rising 789% over the past year against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (201% against 89.3%). A behind 73% of stocks worth at least $300 million over 5 years, but ahead of 87% of the stocks worth at least $300 million over 3 years.
- **Long term:** MRNA turned $10,000 into $7,270 over the past 5 years, against $18,200 in the S&P 500.
- **In a crash:** The 2022 bear market took 49.9% off MRNA, against 24.5% for the S&P 500. That was more than AMGN (Amgen, 11.9%) but less than NVAX (Novavax, 88.2%).
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, MRNA has a correlation of 0.18 over 5 years, less closely than 88% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is a real diversifier. That said, over 5 years, MRNA's beta versus the S&P 500 was 1.09: in the S&P 500's rising months it gained 49% as much as the index, and in falling months it lost 1.7 times as much.
- **Better options**
  - **Popular alternatives:** GILD (Gilead Sciences), AMGN (Amgen) and VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals) earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. GILD returned 22.8% a year at 24.9% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** LLY (Eli Lilly and Company, pharmaceuticals) and JNJ (Johnson & Johnson, pharmaceuticals) earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. LLY returned 40.7% a year at 32.8% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.
  - **Whole market:** 2,890 of the 3,634 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVDA (NVIDIA), AAPL (Apple) and GOOG (Alphabet).

## How much would $10,000 in MRNA have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in MRNA over the past 7 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of MRNA over the same span and MRNA's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in MRNA at the end of September 2019 would have grown to $120,962 by September 2026, more than the $28,402 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of MRNA, and NVDA finished highest, at $528,672.

## MRNA at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- MRNA is still 50.0% below its all-time high.
- MRNA's deepest decline since it began trading in 2018 was 95.4%, from August 2021 to November 2025. It has not yet climbed back to that peak.
- Over seven full calendar years, MRNA's best was 2020, when it returned 434%, and its worst was 2024, when it lost 58.2%. It lost money in four of those years.

- Type: Stock, Healthcare (Biotechnology)
- Trading since: December 7, 2018
- Market value: $97B
- Volatility (5 years): 104%; Sharpe ratio: 0.30
- Worst decline ever: −95.4%, from August 9, 2021 to November 20, 2025; not yet back at its high

| Period | MRNA total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +40.0% |
| 3 months | +307% |
| 6 months | +343% |
| year to date | +684% |
| 1 year | +789% |
| 3 years | +201% |
| 5 years | −27.3% |

## MRNA against the whole market

Where MRNA ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does MRNA rank among all stocks?

This section ranks MRNA on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- MRNA's 1-year return ranks in the top 1% of the 3,287 stocks worth at least $300 million with 1 year of history.
- MRNA is among the more volatile stocks: its price swings rank in the bottom 3% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million, where the top is the calmest.

| Measure | MRNA | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +789% | 2 of 3,287 (top 1%) |
| 3-year return | +201% | 403 of 3,017 (top 14%) |
| 5-year return | −27.3% | 2,105 of 2,893 (top 73%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 104% | 2,803 of 2,893 (top 97%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.30 | 1,540 of 2,893 (top 54%) |

### What has beaten MRNA on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- 1,900 stocks and 990 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than MRNA over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 80% of the 3,634 screened.
- Among those with at least half MRNA's swings, CLS has the best return for its risk: 101% a year at 59.7% volatility, 43% less than MRNA's 104%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.47 against 0.30 for MRNA.
- Among MRNA's popular alternatives, GILD, VRTX and AMGN are in the region. GILD earned 22.8% a year against a loss of 6.2% a year for MRNA, at 24.9% volatility, 76% less than MRNA's 104%.

### Is there a better investment than MRNA?

The table below lists investments that beat MRNA over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Among MRNA's popular alternatives, GILD, AMGN and VRTX earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. GILD returned 22.8% a year at 24.9% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, LLY (pharmaceuticals) and JNJ (pharmaceuticals) earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. LLY returned 40.7% a year at 32.8% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.
- Across the whole market, 2,890 of the 3,634 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVDA, AAPL and GOOG.

The 15 strongest of 2,890 investments that beat MRNA over the past 5 years, out of 3,634 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 5Y return | Correlation with MRNA | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MRNA: Moderna, Inc. (this page) |  | −6.2% | 104% | 0.30 | −95.4% | −27.3% |  |  |
| [BIL](https://easycompare.io/research/bil): State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Treasury Bonds | +3.7% | 0.3% | 14.05 | −0.2% | +19.9% | 0.01 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [MSFT](https://easycompare.io/research/msft): Microsoft Corporation | Software | +12.5% | 28.2% | 0.56 | −37.1% | +80.3% | 0.02 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [AMZN](https://easycompare.io/research/amzn): Amazon.com, Inc. | E-Commerce | +9.0% | 36.6% | 0.42 | −56.1% | +53.8% | -0.05 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [WMT](https://easycompare.io/research/wmt): Walmart Inc. | Discount Retail | +20.8% | 22.6% | 0.96 | −25.7% | +158% | -0.08 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [HSBC](https://easycompare.io/research/hsbc): HSBC Holdings plc | Banks | +33.1% | 25.9% | 1.24 | −62.3% | +318% | -0.06 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| VRIG: Invesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF | Bonds | +4.7% | 1.3% | 3.51 | −13.1% | +25.6% | 0.00 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [COST](https://easycompare.io/research/cost): Costco Wholesale Corporation | Discount Retail | +17.4% | 22.9% | 0.82 | −31.4% | +123% | 0.08 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| FLRT: Pacer Aristotle Pacific Floating Rate High Income ETF | Financials | +6.0% | 2.3% | 2.55 | −21.0% | +33.9% | 0.04 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | Gold | +17.7% | 18.9% | 0.96 | −26.4% | +126% | 0.19 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [PGR](https://easycompare.io/research/pgr): The Progressive Corporation | Property & Casualty Insurance | +21.3% | 25.6% | 0.89 | −30.3% | +162% | -0.08 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| FLOT: iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF | Floating Rate Bonds | +4.5% | 1.8% | 2.48 | −13.5% | +24.5% | -0.02 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [COR](https://easycompare.io/research/cor): Cencora, Inc. | Health Care Distribution | +24.2% | 22.8% | 1.07 | −32.4% | +195% | 0.05 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [VTIP](https://easycompare.io/research/vtip): Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF | Treasury Bonds | +2.7% | 2.9% | 0.94 | −6.3% | +14.0% | 0.07 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [MNST](https://easycompare.io/research/mnst): Monster Beverage Corporation | Food & Beverages | +17.2% | 24.9% | 0.77 | −30.4% | +121% | 0.00 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |
| [EP-PC](https://easycompare.io/research/ep-pc): El Paso Energy Capital Trust I PFD CV TR SECS | Preferred Stocks | +5.2% | 8.9% | 0.61 | −25.4% | +28.5% | -0.01 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Smaller losses in recent crashes |

## MRNA against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against MRNA, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do MRNA's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- 15 of the 19 popular alternatives, led by EXEL, GILD and VRTX, were both more rewarding and calmer than MRNA over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, MRNA returned -6.2% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (104.4% against 17.1%).

### Has MRNA consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares MRNA with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over seven periods from one month to five years.

- None of the 19 popular alternatives outperformed MRNA in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 2 long-term timeframes. The closest was EXEL.
- GILD, VRTX and AMGN earned more for the risk they took than MRNA (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in their worst decline of the past 10 years.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | Periods ahead of MRNA | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MRNA: Moderna, Inc. (this page) | +789% | +201% | −27.3% |  |  | 0.30 |
| EXEL: Exelixis, Inc. | +86.4% | +205% | +198% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.79 |
| [GILD](https://easycompare.io/research/gild): Gilead Sciences, Inc. | +30.3% | +121% | +180% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.95 |
| [VRTX](https://easycompare.io/research/vrtx): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | +22.8% | +42.2% | +177% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.85 |
| [AMGN](https://easycompare.io/research/amgn): Amgen Inc. | +48.7% | +72.2% | +145% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.85 |
| INCY: Incyte Corporation | +35.3% | +112% | +77.6% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.53 |
| [GSK](https://easycompare.io/research/gsk): GSK plc | +18.9% | +60.0% | +57.2% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.49 |
| IONS: Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | −38.3% | −1.6% | +48.8% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.40 |
| [REGN](https://easycompare.io/research/regn): Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | +40.7% | +0.8% | +44.9% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.40 |
| [TMO](https://easycompare.io/research/tmo): Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | +26.8% | +49.5% | +15.1% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.24 |
| ALNY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | −53.0% | +42.6% | +13.2% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.29 |
| [SNY](https://easycompare.io/research/sny): Sanofi | −13.4% | −10.0% | +3.0% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.15 |
| [PFE](https://easycompare.io/research/pfe): Pfizer Inc. | +30.5% | +19.2% | −8.3% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.06 |
| BIIB: Biogen Inc. | +65.8% | −5.6% | −8.8% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.11 |
| [DHR](https://easycompare.io/research/dhr): Danaher Corporation | +8.3% | +10.8% | −17.6% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | 0.01 |
| BMRN: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | +6.3% | −31.3% | −24.9% | 0/5 short-term, 1/2 long-term |  | -0.01 |
| BNTX: BioNTech SE | −15.5% | +0.3% | −65.7% | 0/5 short-term, 0/2 long-term |  | -0.15 |
| SRPT: Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | −16.8% | −82.8% | −76.0% | 0/5 short-term, 0/2 long-term |  | -0.03 |
| OCGN: Ocugen, Inc. | −49.8% | +103% | −90.7% | 0/5 short-term, 0/2 long-term |  | -0.09 |
| NVAX: Novavax, Inc. | +30.0% | +77.8% | −91.6% | 0/5 short-term, 0/2 long-term |  | 0.01 |

### How did MRNA do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2019, along with where MRNA ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- MRNA finished ahead of the S&P 500 in two of its seven full calendar years, and behind it in each of the last four.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, MRNA finished in the top quarter in two of seven years and in the bottom quarter in four. In 2025, it ranked 19 of 20.
- Among its popular alternatives, VRTX came out ahead of MRNA most often, in five of the seven years both traded.

| Year | MRNA | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | −29.1% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | −58.2% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | −44.6% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −29.3% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +143% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +434% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +28.1% | +31.2% |

## Risk and diversification

How MRNA has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were MRNA's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of MRNA's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: MRNA fell 95.4% from August 2021 to November 2025, while the S&P 500 rose 56.6%.
- None of these declines kept MRNA below its old high for long; the longest climb back took six months.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −95.4% | August 9, 2021 | November 20, 2025 | not yet | +56.6% | 2022 bear market |
| −56.7% | May 2, 2019 | August 5, 2019 | February 26, 2020 | −2.1% |  |
| −42.7% | July 17, 2020 | September 8, 2020 | November 16, 2020 | +3.6% |  |
| −38.5% | December 8, 2020 | December 31, 2020 | January 29, 2021 | +1.4% |  |
| −36.3% | February 8, 2021 | March 30, 2021 | May 3, 2021 | +1.4% |  |

### How did MRNA do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far MRNA, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- Among its popular alternatives, GILD held up best, falling less than MRNA in all three crashes they both traded through.
- MRNA began trading after the 2008 financial crisis, but 17 of its popular alternatives lived through it. The mildest fall among them was AMGN's 31.3%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500.
- MRNA fell less than the S&P 500 in one of the three crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MRNA fell 28.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

| Crash | Dates | MRNA fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | not trading | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | not trading | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | not trading | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | not trading | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | not trading | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | not trading | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −28.7% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −49.9% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −3.3% | −3.4% |

### How closely does MRNA move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- 13 of the 18 popular alternatives had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than MRNA's 0.28, led by VRTX, GILD and AMGN.
- EXEL took just -17% of the S&P 500's losses, against 172% for MRNA, while still keeping 61% of its gains.
- Over the past 5 years, MRNA captured 49% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 172% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.09. Its share of the market's losses was larger than its share of the gains.

Measured over the past 5 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MRNA: Moderna, Inc. (this page) | 49.0% | 172% | 1.09 |
| EXEL: Exelixis, Inc. | 61.0% | −17.0% | 0.47 |
| [GILD](https://easycompare.io/research/gild): Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 73.0% | 17.0% | 0.32 |
| [VRTX](https://easycompare.io/research/vrtx): Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | 77.0% | 8.0% | 0.28 |
| [AMGN](https://easycompare.io/research/amgn): Amgen Inc. | 76.0% | 34.0% | 0.41 |
| INCY: Incyte Corporation | 85.0% | 83.0% | 0.73 |
| [GSK](https://easycompare.io/research/gsk): GSK plc | 51.0% | 39.0% | 0.36 |
| IONS: Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 57.0% | 69.0% | 0.38 |
| [REGN](https://easycompare.io/research/regn): Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 49.0% | 61.0% | 0.16 |
| [TMO](https://easycompare.io/research/tmo): Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 102% | 160% | 0.88 |
| ALNY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 29.0% | 20.0% | 0.27 |
| [SNY](https://easycompare.io/research/sny): Sanofi | 45.0% | 76.0% | 0.34 |
| [PFE](https://easycompare.io/research/pfe): Pfizer Inc. | 34.0% | 79.0% | 0.32 |
| BIIB: Biogen Inc. | 19.0% | 63.0% | 0.09 |
| [DHR](https://easycompare.io/research/dhr): Danaher Corporation | 61.0% | 132% | 0.77 |
| BMRN: BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | 5.0% | 41.0% | 0.22 |
| BNTX: BioNTech SE | 51.0% | 213% | 1.24 |
| SRPT: Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | −26.0% | 152% | 0.38 |
| OCGN: Ocugen, Inc. | 76.0% | 359% | 2.26 |
| NVAX: Novavax, Inc. | 47.0% | 424% | 2.44 |

### What diversifies MRNA?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in MRNA into LVHI would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 20% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (-12.9% for MRNA alone, -3.6% for the mix).
- CLS made money in four of the four calendar years in which MRNA lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of MRNA over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.20 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with MRNA | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in MRNA's 4 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.08 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 4 of 4 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.20 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 4 of 4 |
| EMLP: First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.06 | +101% | 14.5% | 1.04 | 4 of 4 |
| HDV: iShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.18 | +83.3% | 13.0% | 1.00 | 4 of 4 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.28 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 3 of 4 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.24 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 3 of 4 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.19 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 3 of 4 |
| SPMO: Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.20 | +136% | 20.8% | 0.93 | 3 of 4 |

## Common questions

### What was MRNA's worst drawdown?

MRNA's deepest decline since it began trading in 2018 was 95.4%, from August 2021 to November 2025. It has not yet climbed back to that peak. Because MRNA launched in December 2018, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or four other sell-offs.

### What were MRNA's best and worst years?

Over seven full calendar years, MRNA's best year was 2020, when it returned 434%. Its worst was 2024, with a return of -58.2%.

### Is there a better investment than MRNA?

Among MRNA's popular alternatives, GILD, AMGN and VRTX earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. GILD returned 22.8% a year at 24.9% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, LLY (pharmaceuticals) and JNJ (pharmaceuticals) earned more than MRNA with less volatility over the past 5 years. LLY returned 40.7% a year at 32.8% volatility, against a loss of 6.2% a year at 104%.

### Is MRNA more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. MRNA's volatility over the past 5 years was 104%, 6.1 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MRNA's return lands within 104% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is MRNA's Sharpe ratio?

MRNA's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.30, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MRNA earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is MRNA with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, MRNA's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.18 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MRNA instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MRNA holding.

### What are the best alternatives to MRNA?

None of the 19 popular alternatives we compared outperformed MRNA in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 2 long-term timeframes, which says more about MRNA's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did MRNA outperform the S&P 500?

MRNA finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of seven full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -29.1%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did MRNA do in stock market crashes?

MRNA fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in one of the three major crashes it has traded through, and further in one. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MRNA fell 28.7% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

### What diversifies MRNA?

These had a low correlation with MRNA over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.08), DXJ (correlation 0.20) and EMLP (correlation 0.06); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.02), CLS (correlation -0.04) and FIX (correlation 0.05). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/mrna
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against MRNA live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=MRNA&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research