# How Marathon Petroleum (MPC) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/mpc
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on MPC alone. It places MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) against 13 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where MPC stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: MPC's full trading record, from June 2011 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** MPC has run far ahead of the market, rising 123% over the past 6 months against 9.1% for the S&P 500 and 11.2% for the Nasdaq 100. After a 44.8% loss from April 2024 to April 2025, MPC has bounced 77.3% off the low.
- **Stock or market?:** More than an industry move: MPC rose 51.1% over the past 3 months, against 20.3% for the oil & gas ETF CRAK (VanEck Oil Refiners ETF). The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Last month cut against the tape: MPC rose 18.1% while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** Over the past year, MPC rose 159% against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (234% against 89.3%). On the flip side, MPC led its oil & gas peers in 2023, then fell behind VLO (Valero Energy) and PBF (PBF Energy) in 2025.
- **Long term:** MPC turned $10,000 into $149,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. MPC's 10-year return of 1,387% puts it ahead of 97% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** Across five sell-offs, MPC has typically fallen 2.3 times as far as the S&P 500. In the Covid crash, MPC fell 72.4%, against 33.7% for the S&P 500. That was more than VLO (Valero Energy, 61.3%) but less than PBF (PBF Energy, 78.8%).
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, MPC has a correlation of 0.26 over 5 years, less closely than 77% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is a real diversifier. MPC moves far less with the S&P 500 than it used to, with a correlation of 0.26 over the past 5 years against 0.71 in the 5 years before.
- **Better options:** Nothing in the whole market did better on both counts: none of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MPC with less volatility over the past 5 years. Across the whole market, MPC outpaced 97% of stocks worth at least $300 million over the past decade.

## How much would $10,000 in MPC have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in MPC over the past 15 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of MPC over the same span and MPC's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in MPC at the end of September 2011 would have grown to $445,808 by September 2026, more than the $87,526 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of MPC, and NVDA finished highest, at $8,017,015.

## MPC at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- MPC's deepest decline since it began trading in 2011 was 79.7%, from October 2018 to March 2020. It took 23 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 14 full calendar years, MPC's best was 2012, when it returned 94.3%, and its worst was 2020, when it lost 27.4%. It lost money in three of those years.
- MPC is 2.0% below its all-time high.

- Type: Stock, Energy (Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing)
- Trading since: June 23, 2011
- Market value: $133B
- Volatility (5 years): 33.4%; Sharpe ratio: 1.41
- Worst decline ever: −79.7%, from October 3, 2018 to March 23, 2020; back at its high by February 2, 2022

| Period | MPC total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | +18.1% |
| 3 months | +51.1% |
| 6 months | +123% |
| year to date | +191% |
| 1 year | +159% |
| 3 years | +234% |
| 5 years | +690% |
| 10 years | +1,387% |

## MPC against the whole market

Where MPC ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does MPC rank among all stocks?

This section ranks MPC on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), MPC ranks in the top 1% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.

| Measure | MPC | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +159% | 64 of 3,287 (top 2%) |
| 3-year return | +234% | 327 of 3,017 (top 11%) |
| 5-year return | +690% | 43 of 2,893 (top 2%) |
| 10-year return | +1,387% | 67 of 2,202 (top 4%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 33.4% | 1,025 of 2,893 (top 36%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 1.41 | 6 of 2,893 (top 1%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −79.7% | 1,632 of 2,187 (top 75%) |

### What has beaten MPC on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- None of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MPC over the past 5 years with less volatility: nothing sits in the green region.

### Is there a better investment than MPC?

The table below lists investments that beat MPC over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Nothing in the whole market did better on both counts: none of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MPC with less volatility over the past 5 years.

## MPC against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against MPC, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do MPC's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- None of the 13 popular alternatives earned more than MPC over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- Eight of the 13 popular alternatives earned less than MPC over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, MPC returned 51.2% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (33.4% against 17.1%).

### Has MPC consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares MPC with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- None of the 13 popular alternatives outperformed MPC in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was VLO.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of MPC | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MPC: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (this page) | +159% | +234% | +690% | +1,387% |  |  | 1.41 |
| [VLO](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo): Valero Energy Corporation | +176% | +259% | +524% | +1,061% | 1/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 1.18 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | +78.5% | +115% | +304% | +1,424% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.80 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | +198% | +235% | +427% | +1,319% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.87 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | +189% | +89.0% | +495% | +427% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.90 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | +146% | +152% | +298% | +649% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | +132% | +226% | +332% | +524% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.82 |
| DKL: Delek Logistics Partners, LP | +41.3% | +80.0% | +77.2% | +511% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.52 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | +138% | +161% | +417% | +504% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.91 |
| [PSX](https://easycompare.io/research/psx): Phillips 66 | +130% | +183% | +319% | +430% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.04 |
| [MPLX](https://easycompare.io/research/mplx): MPLX Lp | +27.2% | +105% | +187% | +350% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.22 |
| DAR: Darling Ingredients Inc. | +86.2% | +42.0% | −23.4% | +342% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.07 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | +51.9% | +53.4% | +144% | +238% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.84 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | +62.4% | +76.7% | +232% | +214% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.04 |

### How did MPC do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2012, along with where MPC ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, MPC finished in the top quarter in six of 14 years and in the bottom quarter in no. In 2025, it ranked 7 of 14.
- MPC finished ahead of the S&P 500 in eight of its 14 full calendar years.
- Among its popular alternatives, CVI came out ahead of MPC most often, in eight of the 14 years both traded.

| Year | MPC | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +19.2% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | −4.0% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +30.4% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | +86.6% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +61.0% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | −27.4% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +6.0% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −8.2% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +34.8% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +0.7% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How MPC has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were MPC's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of MPC's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: MPC fell 44.8% from April 2024 to April 2025, while the S&P 500 slipped only 3.0%.
- The longest climb back to a previous high took 23 months, after MPC fell 79.7% from October 2018 to March 2020.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −79.7% | October 3, 2018 | March 23, 2020 | February 2, 2022 | −21.2% | late-2018 sell-off |
| −48.2% | December 1, 2015 | February 8, 2016 | August 1, 2017 | −11.5% | 2015 China and oil sell-off |
| −44.8% | April 5, 2024 | April 8, 2025 | March 3, 2026 | −3.0% |  |
| −39.5% | August 1, 2011 | September 30, 2011 | February 6, 2012 | −11.7% | 2011 euro debt crisis |
| −31.2% | March 20, 2013 | October 9, 2013 | December 31, 2013 | +7.4% |  |

### How did MPC do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far MPC, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- MPC fell further than the S&P 500 in five of the seven crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MPC fell 72.4% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.
- Among its popular alternatives, CVX held up best, falling less than MPC in all seven crashes they both traded through.
- MPC began trading after the 2008 financial crisis, but seven of its popular alternatives lived through it. The mildest fall among them was XOM's 33.7%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500.

| Crash | Dates | MPC fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | not trading | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | not trading | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | −39.5% | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −48.2% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −6.9% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −36.7% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −72.4% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −30.2% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −3.7% | −3.4% |

### How closely does MPC move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- Over the past 10 years, MPC captured 138% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 95% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.29. Its share of the market's gains was larger than its share of the losses.
- Only CLMT had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than MPC's 1.45, out of 13 popular alternatives with the same record.
- CLMT took just 81% of the S&P 500's losses, against 95% for MPC, while still keeping 127% of its gains.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MPC: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (this page) | 138% | 95.0% | 1.29 |
| [VLO](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo): Valero Energy Corporation | 142% | 114% | 1.31 |
| CVI: CVR Energy, Inc. | 169% | 150% | 1.37 |
| CLMT: Calumet Inc. | 127% | 81.0% | 1.67 |
| PBF: PBF Energy Inc. | 137% | 164% | 1.44 |
| DINO: HF Sinclair Corporation | 135% | 140% | 1.21 |
| DK: Delek US Holdings, Inc. | 130% | 136% | 1.31 |
| DKL: Delek Logistics Partners, LP | 131% | 146% | 1.67 |
| PARR: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. | 142% | 150% | 1.64 |
| [PSX](https://easycompare.io/research/psx): Phillips 66 | 116% | 122% | 1.16 |
| [MPLX](https://easycompare.io/research/mplx): MPLX Lp | 87.0% | 76.0% | 1.16 |
| DAR: Darling Ingredients Inc. | 118% | 127% | 1.05 |
| [CVX](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx): Chevron Corporation | 86.0% | 94.0% | 0.89 |
| [XOM](https://easycompare.io/research/xom): Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation | 78.0% | 83.0% | 0.76 |

### What diversifies MPC?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in MPC into SMH would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 16% over the past 5 years while keeping its annual return (+48.2% for MPC alone, +48.2% for the mix).
- FIX made money in three of the three calendar years in which MPC lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of MPC over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.48 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with MPC | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in MPC's 3 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.41 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 1 of 3 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.23 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 2 of 3 |
| EMLP: First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.48 | +101% | 14.5% | 1.04 | 1 of 3 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.07 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 2 of 3 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.30 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 2 of 3 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | -0.01 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 2 of 3 |
| SPMO: Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.16 | +136% | 20.8% | 0.93 | 2 of 3 |
| DFIV: Dimensional - International Value ETF | 0.40 | +99.4% | 16.4% | 0.93 | 1 of 3 |

## Common questions

### What was MPC's worst drawdown?

MPC's deepest decline since it began trading in 2011 was 79.7%, from October 2018 to March 2020. It took 23 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because MPC launched in June 2011, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or the 2010 flash crash.

### What were MPC's best and worst years?

Over 14 full calendar years, MPC's best year was 2012, when it returned 94.3%. Its worst was 2020, with a return of -27.4%.

### Is there a better investment than MPC?

Nothing in the whole market did better on both counts: none of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than MPC with less volatility over the past 5 years.

### Is MPC more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. MPC's volatility over the past 5 years was 33.4%, about twice the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, MPC's return lands within 33.4% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is MPC's Sharpe ratio?

MPC's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.41, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so MPC earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is MPC with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, MPC's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.26 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They are only loosely linked, which makes it a real diversifier next to an index fund. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against MPC instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a MPC holding.

### What are the best alternatives to MPC?

None of the 13 popular alternatives we compared outperformed MPC in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about MPC's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did MPC outperform the S&P 500?

MPC finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in eight of 14 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +19.2%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did MPC do in stock market crashes?

MPC fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in none of the seven major crashes it has traded through, and further in five. The clearest case was the Covid crash, when MPC fell 72.4% and the S&P 500 fell 33.7%.

### What diversifies MPC?

These had a low correlation with MPC over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.41), DXJ (correlation 0.23) and EMLP (correlation 0.48); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.18), CLS (correlation 0.16) and FIX (correlation 0.14). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

- [Valero Energy (VLO) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo)
- [Phillips 66 (PSX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/psx)
- [MPLX Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/mplx)
- [Chevron (CVX) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/cvx)
- [Exxonmobil (XOM) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/xom)
- [Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/schd)
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- [Microsoft (MSFT) Performance, Alternatives and Market Rank](https://easycompare.io/research/msft)
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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/mpc
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against MPC live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=MPC&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research