# How Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/gbtc
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on GBTC alone. It places GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF) against 15 popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where GBTC stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: GBTC's full trading record, from May 2015 through September 2026. The crash tests reach back to 2000 using older funds and the S&P 500. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **What you're buying:** GBTC charges 1.50% a year; BTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF) tracks the same thing for 0.15%.
- **Right now:** Over the past 3 months, GBTC rose 26.3% against 3.9% for the S&P 500 and 3.2% for the Nasdaq 100. That said, GBTC is 35.3% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.3% below a record.
- **Fund or market?:** GBTC's 26.3% gain over the past 3 months is part of a broader bitcoin rally: the bitcoin ETF IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) rose 26.6%, with IBIT (up 26.6%) and FBTC (Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, up 26.5%).
- **Long term:** GBTC turned $10,000 into $735,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. On the flip side, over 5 years GBTC trailed the index: 23.1% against 81.7%.
- **In a crash:** In the 2022 bear market, GBTC fell 67.8%, against 24.5% for the S&P 500, and more than similar funds such as BITO (ProShares Bitcoin ETF, 61.9%). GBTC fell further than the S&P 500 in six of the last six sell-offs, including the 2022 bear market (67.8% against 24.5%).
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, GBTC has a correlation of 0.50 over 5 years, less closely than 86% of ETFs with at least $100 million in assets. Next to an index fund it is some diversification, but not a hedge. GBTC now moves more with the S&P 500: a correlation of 0.50 over the past 5 years, up from 0.16 in the 5 years before.
- **Better options**
  - **Popular alternatives:** BLOK (Amplify Blockchain Technology ETF) matched GBTC's return over the past 5 years (4.9% a year against 4.2%) with 29% less volatility.
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** GLD (SPDR Gold Shares, gold) earned more than GBTC with less volatility over the past 5 years: 17.7% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 4.2% a year at 59.6%.
  - **Whole market:** 1,749 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than GBTC with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVDA (NVIDIA), AAPL (Apple) and GOOG (Alphabet).

## How much would $10,000 in GBTC have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in GBTC over the past 10 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of GBTC over the same span and GBTC's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in GBTC at the end of September 2016 would have grown to $733,365 by September 2026, more than the $41,286 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Three of the five other investments on the chart ended ahead of GBTC, and NVDA finished highest, at $1,367,620.

## GBTC at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the fund, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- GBTC is still 35.3% below its all-time high.
- GBTC's deepest decline since it began trading in 2015 was 89.9%, from December 2017 to December 2018. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over ten full calendar years, GBTC's best was 2017, when it returned 1,761%, and its worst was 2018, when it lost 82.1%. It lost money in three of those years.

- Type: ETF, Crypto (Asset Management - Cryptocurrency)
- Trading since: May 11, 2015
- Assets: $10B
- Expense ratio: 1.50%
- Volatility (5 years): 59.6%; Sharpe ratio: 0.37
- Worst decline ever: −89.9%, from December 18, 2017 to December 14, 2018; back at its high by January 5, 2021

| Period | GBTC total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | −4.8% |
| 3 months | +26.3% |
| 6 months | +7.3% |
| year to date | −9.2% |
| 1 year | −26.7% |
| 3 years | +169% |
| 5 years | +23.1% |
| 10 years | +7,255% |

## GBTC against the whole market

Where GBTC ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does GBTC rank among all ETFs?

This section ranks GBTC on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every ETF worth at least $100 million with enough history.

- GBTC's 10-year return ranks in the top 1% of the 958 ETFs with at least $100 million in assets with 10 years of history.
- GBTC's worst decline of the past 10 years ranks in the bottom 1% of the 951 ETFs with at least $100 million in assets, where the top fell the least.

| Measure | GBTC | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | −26.7% | 2,451 of 2,485 (top 99%) |
| 3-year return | +169% | 53 of 1,949 (top 3%) |
| 5-year return | +23.1% | 1,079 of 1,560 (top 70%) |
| 10-year return | +7,255% | 1 of 958 (top 1%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 59.6% | 1,549 of 1,560 (top 100%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 0.37 | 1,138 of 1,560 (top 73%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −89.9% | 947 of 951 (top 100%) |

### What has beaten GBTC on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- 1,081 stocks and 668 ETFs worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than GBTC over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is 48% of the 3,633 screened.
- Among those with at least half GBTC's swings, FIX has the best return for its risk: 77.0% a year at 46.7% volatility, 22% less than GBTC's 59.6%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.46 against 0.37 for GBTC. BELFB earned the most, 78.0% a year, while still swinging less than GBTC (52.1% against 59.6%).
- None of GBTC's popular alternatives made it, but IAUM (gold) did: 18.1% a year at 18.8% volatility, 68% less than GBTC's 59.6%.

### Is there a better investment than GBTC?

The table below lists investments that beat GBTC over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes, and, for funds, the same exposure at a lower expense ratio.

- Among GBTC's popular alternatives, BLOK matched GBTC's return over the past 5 years (4.9% a year against 4.2%) with 29% less volatility.
- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, GLD (gold) earned more than GBTC with less volatility over the past 5 years: 17.7% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 4.2% a year at 59.6%.
- Across the whole market, 1,749 of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than GBTC with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them NVDA, AAPL and GOOG.

The 15 strongest of 1,749 investments that beat GBTC over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with GBTC | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GBTC: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (this page) |  | +4.2% | 59.6% | 0.37 | −89.9% | +7,255% |  |  |
| [MPC](https://easycompare.io/research/mpc): Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Oil & Gas | +51.2% | 33.4% | 1.41 | −79.7% | +1,387% | 0.25 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [CAH](https://easycompare.io/research/cah): Cardinal Health, Inc. | Health Care Distribution | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.03 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [TSM](https://easycompare.io/research/tsm): Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Semiconductors | +31.5% | 38.5% | 0.91 | −56.6% | +1,505% | 0.16 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| ATI: ATI Inc. | Metals & Mining | +61.8% | 42.9% | 1.34 | −82.4% | +929% | 0.15 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [DELL](https://easycompare.io/research/dell): Dell Technologies Inc. | Computer Hardware | +55.2% | 54.4% | 1.08 | −59.6% | +3,701% | 0.11 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [ASML](https://easycompare.io/research/asml): ASML Holding N.V. | Semiconductor Equipment | +17.4% | 43.4% | 0.59 | −56.9% | +1,628% | 0.25 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [MUFG](https://easycompare.io/research/mufg): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | Banks | +33.2% | 29.4% | 1.13 | −54.9% | +483% | 0.08 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [ANET](https://easycompare.io/research/anet): Arista Networks, Inc. | Communications Equipment | +49.0% | 49.0% | 1.06 | −52.2% | +3,439% | 0.38 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| INSW: International Seaways, Inc. | Oil & Gas | +56.5% | 40.5% | 1.31 | −57.4% | — | -0.03 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [PANW](https://easycompare.io/research/panw): Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | Cybersecurity | +31.9% | 43.4% | 0.86 | −48.0% | +1,274% | 0.18 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [STX](https://easycompare.io/research/stx): Seagate Technology Holdings plc | Computer Hardware | +57.4% | 48.7% | 1.18 | −57.0% | +2,698% | 0.21 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [WELL](https://easycompare.io/research/well): Welltower Inc. | Healthcare REITs | +26.0% | 23.8% | 1.09 | −63.3% | +379% | 0.11 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [BBVA](https://easycompare.io/research/bbva): Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | Banks | +38.7% | 33.3% | 1.16 | −69.6% | +542% | 0.17 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [VLO](https://easycompare.io/research/vlo): Valero Energy Corporation | Oil & Gas | +44.2% | 36.9% | 1.18 | −71.9% | +1,061% | 0.15 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |
| [CRWD](https://easycompare.io/research/crwd): CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | Cybersecurity | +26.3% | 52.7% | 0.71 | −67.7% | — | 0.30 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline; Higher return in most periods |

## GBTC against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against GBTC, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do GBTC's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- Only BLOK was both more rewarding and calmer than GBTC over the past 5 years, earning a higher annual return with lower volatility.
- Over the past 5 years, GBTC returned 4.2% a year, less than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (59.6% against 17.1%).

### Has GBTC consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares GBTC with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- None of the 15 popular alternatives outperformed GBTC in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was BLOK.
- MSTR earned more for the risk it took than GBTC (a higher Sharpe ratio) and fell less in its worst decline of the past 10 years.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of GBTC | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| GBTC: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (this page) | −26.7% | +169% | +23.1% | +7,255% |  |  | 0.37 |
| BLOK: Amplify Blockchain Technology ETF | −22.4% | +205% | +27.0% | — | 2/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term |  | 0.33 |
| [MSTR](https://easycompare.io/research/mstr): Strategy Inc | −51.9% | +310% | +88.2% | +748% | 1/5 short-term, 2/3 long-term |  | 0.59 |
| ARKB: ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| BITB: Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| BRRR: CoinShares Bitcoin ETF | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| BTC: Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | −25.7% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| BTCO: Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| EZBC: Franklin Bitcoin ETF | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| FBTC: Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| HODL: VanEck Bitcoin ETF | −25.6% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| [IBIT](https://easycompare.io/research/ibit): iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | −25.8% | — | — | — | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| ETHA: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | −39.1% | — | — | — | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | — |
| MARA: Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | −63.9% | −3.6% | −85.9% | −79.2% | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.15 |
| BITO: ProShares Bitcoin ETF | −28.3% | +131% | −4.9% | — | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.25 |
| [COIN](https://easycompare.io/research/coin): Coinbase Global, Inc. | −50.3% | +129% | −45.7% | — | 0/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.29 |

### How did GBTC do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 2016, along with where GBTC ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- None of the three popular alternatives came out ahead of GBTC in most of the years they have in common.
- GBTC finished ahead of the S&P 500 in six of its ten full calendar years.
- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, GBTC finished in the top quarter in one of four years and in the bottom quarter in no. In 2025, it ranked 3 of 8.

| Year | GBTC | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | −7.6% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | +114% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +318% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −75.8% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +7.0% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +291% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +106% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −82.1% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +1,761% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +93.0% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How GBTC has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were GBTC's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all five of GBTC's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: GBTC fell 89.9% from December 2017 to December 2018, while the S&P 500 slipped only 1.6%.
- The slowest recovery came after GBTC fell 89.9% from December 2017 to December 2018; it did not regain that peak until January 2021, two years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −89.9% | December 18, 2017 | December 14, 2018 | January 5, 2021 | −1.6% | late-2018 sell-off |
| −86.2% | February 19, 2021 | December 28, 2022 | March 4, 2024 | −0.5% | 2022 bear market |
| −53.8% | May 11, 2015 | August 26, 2015 | November 4, 2015 | −7.2% | 2015 China and oil sell-off |
| −53.8% | October 6, 2025 | June 30, 2026 | not yet | +12.1% |  |
| −48.5% | August 31, 2017 | September 14, 2017 | November 3, 2017 | +1.1% |  |

### How did GBTC do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far GBTC, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- GBTC fell further than the S&P 500 in all six crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2022 bear market, when GBTC fell 67.8% and the S&P 500 fell 24.5%.
- Among its popular alternatives, BLOK held up best, falling less than GBTC in all five crashes they both traded through.

| Crash | Dates | GBTC fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | not trading | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | not trading | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | not trading | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | not trading | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −36.9% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −16.3% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −56.6% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −57.8% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −67.8% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −15.2% | −3.4% |

### What diversifies GBTC?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in GBTC into LVHI would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 20% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+13.8% for GBTC alone, +18.3% for the mix).
- FIX made money in three of the three calendar years in which GBTC lost money.
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and EMLP have moved largely independently of GBTC over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.28 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with GBTC | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in GBTC's 3 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.11 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 2 of 3 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.17 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 2 of 3 |
| EMLP: First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure Fund | 0.28 | +101% | 14.5% | 1.04 | 2 of 3 |
| HDV: iShares Core High Dividend ETF | 0.12 | +83.3% | 13.0% | 1.00 | 2 of 3 |
| [SMH](https://easycompare.io/research/smh): VanEck Semiconductor ETF | 0.31 | +323% | 36.9% | 0.97 | 1 of 3 |
| DBEF: Xtrackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF | 0.29 | +85.0% | 13.8% | 0.96 | 1 of 3 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.16 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 1 of 3 |
| FFLC: Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF | 0.44 | +107% | 16.8% | 0.95 | 1 of 3 |

## Common questions

### What was GBTC's worst drawdown?

GBTC's deepest decline since it began trading in 2015 was 89.9%, from December 2017 to December 2018. It took 25 months from the low to climb back to its old high. Because GBTC launched in May 2015, that record does not include the dot-com bust, the 2008 financial crisis or two other sell-offs.

### What were GBTC's best and worst years?

Over ten full calendar years, GBTC's best year was 2017, when it returned 1,761%. Its worst was 2018, with a return of -82.1%.

### Is there a better investment than GBTC?

Among GBTC's popular alternatives, BLOK matched GBTC's return over the past 5 years (4.9% a year against 4.2%) with 29% less volatility. Looking beyond its popular alternatives, GLD (gold) earned more than GBTC with less volatility over the past 5 years: 17.7% a year at 18.9% volatility, against 4.2% a year at 59.6%.

### Is GBTC more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. GBTC's volatility over the past 5 years was 59.6%, 3.5 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, GBTC's return lands within 59.6% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is GBTC's Sharpe ratio?

GBTC's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 0.37, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so GBTC earned less for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is GBTC with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, GBTC's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.50 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against GBTC instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a GBTC holding.

### What are the best alternatives to GBTC?

None of the 15 popular alternatives we compared outperformed GBTC in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about GBTC's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did GBTC outperform the S&P 500?

GBTC finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in six of ten full calendar years. In 2025, it returned -7.6%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did GBTC do in stock market crashes?

GBTC fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in none of the six major crashes it has traded through, and further in six. The clearest case was the 2022 bear market, when GBTC fell 67.8% and the S&P 500 fell 24.5%.

### What diversifies GBTC?

These had a low correlation with GBTC over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.11), DXJ (correlation 0.17) and EMLP (correlation 0.28); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.03), CLS (correlation 0.31) and FIX (correlation 0.41). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/gbtc
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against GBTC live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=GBTC&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research