# How Caterpillar (CAT) compares with the whole market and its popular alternatives

> Source: EasyCompare research, https://easycompare.io/research/cat
> Data as of October 20, 2026. Total returns include reinvested dividends. Past performance does not predict future results; nothing here is investment advice.

Built by QuantCommons' quantitative engine, this page is about relative opportunity, not data on CAT alone. It places CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) against 20+ popular alternatives, its neighboring categories and the entire market of over 10,000 U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs, and surfaces what has done better on consistent outperformance, return for the risk taken, behavior in real market crashes and diversification. The result is a clearer view of where CAT stands in the market, and of the alternatives worth a closer look.

Period covered: CAT's full trading record, from October 1986 through September 2026. All returns include reinvested dividends. Data as of October 20, 2026.

## Key findings

- **Right now:** Over the past 3 months, CAT fell 15.9% while the S&P 500 rose 3.9%. CAT is 31.6% below its high, bear-market territory, while the S&P 500 sits 1.3% below a record.
- **Stock or market?:** The weakness is CAT's own: it fell 15.9% over the past 3 months while the industrial machinery ETF XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) fell 6.1%. The S&P 500 rose 3.9%. Its industrial machinery peers did not move as one over the past 3 months: WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies) rose 10.1%, while TRN (Trinity Industries) fell 31.1%.
- **Past 1 to 3 years:** CAT has run far ahead of the market, rising 37.7% over the past year against 15.8% for the S&P 500 and 17.9% for the Nasdaq 100. The same gap shows up over 3 years (203% against 89.3%).
- **Long term:** CAT turned $10,000 into $104,000 over the past decade, against $42,100 in the S&P 500. CAT's 10-year return of 936% puts it ahead of 95% of the stocks worth at least $300 million with that much history. The S&P 500 returned 321%.
- **In a crash:** Across seven sell-offs, CAT has typically fallen 1.4 times as far as the S&P 500.
- **Diversification:** Against the S&P 500, CAT has a correlation of 0.65 over 5 years, more closely than 96% of stocks worth at least $300 million. Next to an index fund it is more of the same, not a cushion.
- **Better options**
  - **Nearby categories and themes:** ESLT (Elbit Systems, aerospace & defense) earned more for the risk it took than CAT over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 35.4%, against 43.4% for CAT.
  - **Whole market:** Few investments have done better on both counts: only five of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CAT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them HSBC, MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group) and MCK (McKesson).

## How much would $10,000 in CAT have grown?

This chart tracks a hypothetical $10,000 investment in CAT over the past 29 years, with dividends reinvested, alongside the same amount in the S&P 500, investments that ended ahead of CAT over the same span and CAT's popular alternatives, among those that traded for the entire period.

- $10,000 invested in CAT at the end of September 1997 would have grown to $615,591 by September 2026, more than the $132,907 it would have become in SPY, an S&P 500 fund.
- Five of the eight other investments on the chart ended ahead of CAT, and AAPL finished highest, at $20,534,853.

## CAT at a glance

This section summarizes the key facts about the stock, its returns over periods from one to ten years and the risk it has carried, with dividends reinvested throughout.

- CAT is still 31.6% below its all-time high.
- CAT's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 73.4%, from July 2007 to March 2009. It took 18 months from the low to climb back to its old high.
- Over 29 full calendar years, CAT's best was 2003, when it returned 86.1%, and its worst was 2008, when it lost 36.8%. It lost money in six of those years.

- Type: Stock, Industrials (Agricultural - Machinery)
- Trading since: October 20, 1986
- Market value: $333B
- Volatility (5 years): 31.9%; Sharpe ratio: 1.01
- Worst decline ever: −73.4%, from July 19, 2007 to March 2, 2009; back at its high by September 24, 2010

| Period | CAT total return |
| --- | --- |
| 1 month | −11.2% |
| 3 months | −15.9% |
| 6 months | −8.8% |
| year to date | +22.2% |
| 1 year | +37.7% |
| 3 years | +203% |
| 5 years | +288% |
| 10 years | +936% |

## CAT against the whole market

Where CAT ranks among every stock and fund, and what across the market has done better.

### How does CAT rank among all stocks?

This section ranks CAT on return, volatility, risk-adjusted return and worst decline against every stock worth at least $300 million with enough history.

- On return for the risk taken (the Sharpe ratio), CAT ranks in the top 3% of the 2,893 stocks worth at least $300 million.

| Measure | CAT | Rank |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1-year return | +37.7% | 785 of 3,287 (top 24%) |
| 3-year return | +203% | 398 of 3,017 (top 14%) |
| 5-year return | +288% | 185 of 2,893 (top 7%) |
| 10-year return | +936% | 120 of 2,202 (top 6%) |
| Volatility, 5 years | 31.9% | 899 of 2,893 (top 32%) |
| Sharpe ratio, 5 years | 1.01 | 93 of 2,893 (top 4%) |
| Worst decline, past 10 years | −43.4% | 239 of 2,187 (top 11%) |

### What has beaten CAT on both return and risk?

Each dot is an investment, placed by how much it earned a year over the past 5 years (higher is better) and how much its price swung, its volatility (further left is calmer).

- Five stocks worth at least $500 million sit in the green region: each earned more than CAT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings. That is fewer than 1% of the 3,633 screened. Few investments beat it on both counts.
- Among those with at least half CAT's swings, CAH has the best return for its risk: 42.1% a year at 24.7% volatility, 22% less than CAT's 31.9%, and a Sharpe ratio (return above cash per unit of volatility) of 1.55 against 1.01 for CAT.

### Is there a better investment than CAT?

The table below lists investments that beat CAT over the past 5 years on at least one of these measures: a higher annual return with lower volatility, a higher annual return at similar volatility, a similar return with lower volatility, a higher Sharpe ratio with a smaller worst decline, a higher total return in most periods from 3 months to 10 years, or smaller losses in recent market crashes.

- Looking beyond its popular alternatives, ESLT (aerospace & defense) earned more for the risk it took than CAT over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 35.4%, against 43.4% for CAT.
- Few investments have done better on both counts: only five of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CAT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them HSBC, MUFG and MCK.

The 5 strongest of 5 investments that beat CAT over the past 5 years, out of 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million.

| Investment | Group | Annual return (5 years) | Volatility | Sharpe | Worst decline (10 years) | 10Y return | Correlation with CAT | Better on |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CAT: Caterpillar Inc. (this page) |  | +31.1% | 31.9% | 1.01 | −43.4% | +936% |  |  |
| [MCK](https://easycompare.io/research/mck): McKesson Corporation | Health Care Distribution | +38.7% | 25.0% | 1.44 | −38.1% | +586% | 0.15 | Higher return, lower volatility; Higher Sharpe, smaller worst decline |
| [CAH](https://easycompare.io/research/cah): Cardinal Health, Inc. | Health Care Distribution | +42.1% | 24.7% | 1.55 | −46.1% | +349% | 0.38 | Higher return, lower volatility |
| [HSBC](https://easycompare.io/research/hsbc): HSBC Holdings plc | Banks | +33.1% | 25.9% | 1.24 | −62.3% | +319% | 0.21 | Higher return, lower volatility |
| [MUFG](https://easycompare.io/research/mufg): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | Banks | +33.2% | 29.4% | 1.13 | −54.9% | +483% | 0.26 | Higher return, lower volatility |
| [SMFG](https://easycompare.io/research/smfg): Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. | Banks | +33.7% | 29.4% | 1.14 | −47.6% | +474% | 0.20 | Higher return, lower volatility |

## CAT against its popular alternatives

The investments people most often weigh against CAT, compared period by period and year by year.

### How do CAT's risk and return compare with its alternatives?

This map plots each investment's annual return over the past 5 years against its volatility, the size of its typical price swings.

- None of the 20 popular alternatives earned more than CAT over the past 5 years with smaller price swings, so every higher return on the map came with a bumpier ride.
- 13 of the 20 popular alternatives earned less than CAT over the past 5 years while swinging more, the weaker corner of the map.
- Over the past 5 years, CAT returned 31.1% a year, more than the S&P 500's 12.7%, with higher volatility (31.9% against 17.1%).

### Has CAT consistently beaten its popular alternatives?

This section compares CAT with the investments people most often weigh against it, checking each one over eight periods from one month to ten years.

- None of the 20 popular alternatives outperformed CAT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes. The closest was URI.

| Investment | 1Y return | 3Y return | 5Y return | 10Y return | Periods ahead of CAT | Verdict | Sharpe |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CAT: Caterpillar Inc. (this page) | +37.7% | +203% | +288% | +936% |  |  | 1.01 |
| [URI](https://easycompare.io/research/uri): United Rentals, Inc. | +5.2% | +164% | +196% | +1,270% | 4/5 short-term, 1/3 long-term |  | 0.75 |
| [FCX](https://easycompare.io/research/fcx): Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | +64.8% | +111% | +89.6% | +650% | 5/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.51 |
| [WAB](https://easycompare.io/research/wab): Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | +45.3% | +189% | +212% | +264% | 5/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 1.00 |
| MTW: The Manitowoc Company, Inc. | +98.2% | +69.4% | +8.4% | +28.0% | 5/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.28 |
| WNC: Wabash National Corporation | +45.3% | −34.4% | −12.4% | +15.8% | 5/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.19 |
| [DE](https://easycompare.io/research/de): Deere & Company | +38.3% | +75.4% | +96.1% | +755% | 4/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.60 |
| CNH: CNH Industrial N.V. | +10.9% | +10.3% | −24.3% | +78.9% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.04 |
| LNN: Lindsay Corporation | −16.2% | −4.3% | −29.2% | +56.3% | 3/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | -0.05 |
| HRI: Herc Holdings Inc. | −0.4% | +23.5% | −26.7% | +365% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.14 |
| [PCAR](https://easycompare.io/research/pcar): PACCAR Inc | +15.7% | +50.2% | +128% | +314% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.76 |
| MLM: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | −18.6% | +26.0% | +37.1% | +206% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.37 |
| OSK: Oshkosh Corp | +0.1% | +57.3% | +36.2% | +192% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.35 |
| VMC: Vulcan Materials Company | −10.7% | +32.9% | +46.8% | +159% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.42 |
| ALG: Alamo Group Inc. | −18.1% | −7.4% | +4.3% | +141% | 2/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.18 |
| [CMI](https://easycompare.io/research/cmi): Cummins Inc. | +31.4% | +160% | +148% | +444% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.77 |
| AGCO: AGCO Corporation | −2.0% | −2.5% | −7.5% | +155% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.14 |
| TEX: Terex Corporation | −3.4% | +14.8% | +21.6% | +141% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.31 |
| TRN: Trinity Industries, Inc. | −8.8% | +29.7% | +2.5% | +107% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.19 |
| GBX: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | −15.7% | −0.7% | −9.4% | +38.6% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.16 |
| ASTE: Astec Industries, Inc. | −16.1% | −3.3% | −21.1% | −26.1% | 1/5 short-term, 0/3 long-term |  | 0.11 |

### How did CAT do year by year?

This table shows each investment's total return in every full calendar year since 1997, along with where CAT ranked among its popular alternatives each year.

- Ranked against its popular alternatives each year, CAT finished in the top quarter in nine of 29 years and in the bottom quarter in four. In 2025, it ranked 1 of 21.
- CAT finished ahead of the S&P 500 in 14 of its 29 full calendar years.
- Among its popular alternatives, WAB came out ahead of CAT most often, in 15 of the 29 years both traded.

| Year | CAT | SPY |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 | +60.3% | +17.7% |
| 2024 | +24.7% | +24.9% |
| 2023 | +25.9% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | +18.6% | −18.2% |
| 2021 | +16.0% | +28.7% |
| 2020 | +27.0% | +18.3% |
| 2019 | +19.5% | +31.2% |
| 2018 | −17.6% | −4.6% |
| 2017 | +75.0% | +21.7% |
| 2016 | +42.1% | +12.0% |

## Risk and diversification

How CAT has fallen, how it held up in crashes beside the S&P 500 and its popular alternatives, and what moves independently of it.

### What were CAT's worst declines?

A drawdown is the decline from a peak to the lowest point before a new high.

- In all four of CAT's worst declines, the S&P 500 held up better over the same dates.
- Not every decline was the market's doing: CAT fell 52.3% from April 1999 to October 2000, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%.
- The slowest recovery came after CAT fell 52.3% from April 1999 to October 2000; it did not regain that peak until July 2003, three years later.

| Decline | Peak | Low | Back at the high | SPY over the same dates | Market event |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| −73.4% | July 19, 2007 | March 2, 2009 | September 24, 2010 | −52.9% | 2008 financial crisis |
| −52.3% | April 29, 1999 | October 18, 2000 | July 15, 2003 | +1.5% | dot-com bust |
| −44.7% | October 5, 1987 | October 17, 1990 | April 22, 1993 | — |  |
| −44.6% | July 16, 2014 | January 25, 2016 | April 25, 2017 | −2.3% | 2015 China and oil sell-off |
| −43.4% | January 22, 2018 | March 23, 2020 | October 12, 2020 | −17.6% | late-2018 sell-off |

### How did CAT do in stock market crashes?

This section measures how far CAT, the S&P 500 and each alternative fell from peak to trough during every major market crash since 2000.

- CAT fell further than the S&P 500 in eight of the ten crashes it has traded through. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when CAT fell 73.3% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.
- Among its popular alternatives, LNN held up best, falling less than CAT in seven of the ten crashes they both traded through.

| Crash | Dates | CAT fall | SPY fall |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dot-com bust | March 10, 2000 to October 9, 2002 | −42.5% | −47.5% |
| Global financial crisis | October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009 | −73.3% | −55.2% |
| Flash crash | May 6, 2010 to May 7, 2010 | −2.2% | −1.5% |
| Euro debt crisis | July 22, 2011 to October 3, 2011 | −33.2% | −17.9% |
| China devaluation & oil rout | August 10, 2015 to February 11, 2016 | −26.0% | −12.8% |
| Volmageddon | February 2, 2018 to February 9, 2018 | −7.3% | −6.5% |
| Q4 2018 selloff | September 21, 2018 to December 24, 2018 | −28.5% | −19.3% |
| COVID crash | February 19, 2020 to March 23, 2020 | −33.1% | −33.7% |
| 2022 bear market | January 4, 2022 to October 12, 2022 | −30.1% | −24.5% |
| SVB / regional bank stress | March 8, 2023 to March 13, 2023 | −9.7% | −3.4% |

### How closely does CAT move with the S&P 500?

Upside capture measures how much of the S&P 500's gains an investment kept in the months the market rose, and downside capture how much of its losses it took in the months the market fell.

- Over the past 10 years, CAT captured 148% of the S&P 500's gains in rising months and 122% of its losses in falling months, with a beta of 1.27. It amplified the market's moves in both directions.
- Only DE had a higher capture ratio (upside capture divided by downside capture) than CAT's 1.21, out of 20 popular alternatives with the same record.

Measured over the past 10 years of monthly returns against SPY.

| Investment | Upside capture | Downside capture | Beta |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CAT: Caterpillar Inc. (this page) | 148% | 122% | 1.27 |
| [URI](https://easycompare.io/research/uri): United Rentals, Inc. | 177% | 165% | 1.90 |
| [FCX](https://easycompare.io/research/fcx): Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 164% | 181% | 1.74 |
| [WAB](https://easycompare.io/research/wab): Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | 111% | 127% | 1.28 |
| MTW: The Manitowoc Company, Inc. | 153% | 279% | 2.07 |
| WNC: Wabash National Corporation | 115% | 217% | 1.64 |
| [DE](https://easycompare.io/research/de): Deere & Company | 110% | 66.0% | 0.98 |
| CNH: CNH Industrial N.V. | 113% | 168% | 1.48 |
| LNN: Lindsay Corporation | 43.0% | 50.0% | 0.53 |
| HRI: Herc Holdings Inc. | 196% | 272% | 2.46 |
| [PCAR](https://easycompare.io/research/pcar): PACCAR Inc | 103% | 108% | 0.97 |
| MLM: Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | 83.0% | 93.0% | 0.88 |
| OSK: Oshkosh Corp | 127% | 178% | 1.41 |
| VMC: Vulcan Materials Company | 75.0% | 91.0% | 0.83 |
| ALG: Alamo Group Inc. | 80.0% | 97.0% | 1.05 |
| [CMI](https://easycompare.io/research/cmi): Cummins Inc. | 118% | 118% | 1.15 |
| AGCO: AGCO Corporation | 99.0% | 121% | 1.22 |
| TEX: Terex Corporation | 133% | 199% | 1.60 |
| TRN: Trinity Industries, Inc. | 110% | 165% | 1.38 |
| GBX: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 124% | 211% | 1.50 |
| ASTE: Astec Industries, Inc. | 69.0% | 155% | 1.35 |

### What diversifies CAT?

Correlation measures how closely two investments move together, on a scale from 1 (in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to -1 (in opposite directions).

- Moving a fifth of the money in CAT into MCK would have cut the portfolio's volatility by 17% over the past 5 years and raised its annual return (+35.8% for CAT alone, +37.4% for the mix).
- Among large ETFs, LVHI, DXJ and FDL have moved largely independently of CAT over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.49 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.
- Among large stocks, CAH, MCK and MPC have moved largely independently of CAT over the past 5 years, with correlations of 0.38 or lower, and each still earned a positive 5-year return.

| Investment | Correlation with CAT | 5Y return | Volatility | Sharpe | Rose in CAT's 6 down years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LVHI: Franklin International Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF | 0.46 | +119% | 11.1% | 1.48 | 0 of 6 |
| DXJ: WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund | 0.46 | +225% | 19.1% | 1.34 | 1 of 6 |
| FDL: First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund | 0.49 | +91.8% | 14.4% | 0.98 | 2 of 6 |
| EWP: iShares MSCI Spain ETF | 0.44 | +140% | 20.3% | 0.97 | 1 of 6 |
| MLPX: Global X - MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF | 0.48 | +135% | 19.7% | 0.97 | 0 of 6 |
| [GLD](https://easycompare.io/research/gld): SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00 | +126% | 18.9% | 0.96 | 2 of 6 |
| [XLE](https://easycompare.io/research/xle): State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.37 | +177% | 25.5% | 0.93 | 1 of 6 |
| AMLP: Alerian MLP ETF | 0.39 | +111% | 18.9% | 0.89 | 1 of 6 |

## Common questions

### What was CAT's worst drawdown?

CAT's deepest decline since it began trading in 1986 was 73.4%, from July 2007 to March 2009. It took 18 months from the low to climb back to its old high.

### What were CAT's best and worst years?

Over 29 full calendar years, CAT's best year was 2003, when it returned 86.1%. Its worst was 2008, with a return of -36.8%.

### Is there a better investment than CAT?

Looking beyond its popular alternatives, ESLT (aerospace & defense) earned more for the risk it took than CAT over the past 5 years, and its worst fall in 10 years was 35.4%, against 43.4% for CAT. Few investments have done better on both counts: only five of the 3,633 stocks and funds worth at least $500 million earned more than CAT with less volatility over the past 5 years, among them HSBC, MUFG and MCK.

### Is CAT more volatile than the S&P 500?

Yes. CAT's volatility over the past 5 years was 31.9%, 1.9 times the S&P 500's 17.1%. Volatility measures how widely returns swing around their average: in roughly two years out of three, CAT's return lands within 31.9% of its average, either way. The higher it is, the rougher the ride and the harder it is to hold through a slump.

### What is CAT's Sharpe ratio?

CAT's Sharpe ratio over the past 5 years was 1.01, against 0.79 for the S&P 500, so CAT earned more for each unit of risk than an index fund did. The Sharpe ratio is the return earned above cash for each unit of volatility: two investments with the same return are not equal if one got there with far bigger swings.

### How correlated is CAT with the S&P 500?

Over the past 5 years, CAT's monthly returns had a correlation of 0.65 with the S&P 500. Correlation runs from 1 (moving in lockstep) through 0 (unrelated) to −1 (moving in opposite directions). They often move together: some diversification next to an index fund, but not a cushion. In the table, the correlation column measures each option against CAT instead: the lower it is, the more that option would diversify a CAT holding.

### What are the best alternatives to CAT?

None of the 20 popular alternatives we compared outperformed CAT in at least 3 of 5 short-term and 2 of 3 long-term timeframes, which says more about CAT's strength than about its alternatives.

### Did CAT outperform the S&P 500?

CAT finished ahead of the S&P 500 (SPY) in 14 of 29 full calendar years. In 2025, it returned +60.3%, against +17.7% for the index.

### How did CAT do in stock market crashes?

CAT fell less than the S&P 500 (SPY) in two of the ten major crashes it has traded through, and further in eight. The clearest case was the 2008 financial crisis, when CAT fell 73.3% and the S&P 500 fell 55.2%.

### What diversifies CAT?

These had a low correlation with CAT over the past 5 years and still earned a positive 5-year return: among large ETFs, LVHI (correlation 0.46), DXJ (correlation 0.46) and FDL (correlation 0.49); among large stocks, CAH (correlation 0.38), MCK (correlation 0.15) and MPC (correlation 0.26). A correlation near zero means the two have moved largely independently.

## More research

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## Explore further

- Full page with charts: https://easycompare.io/research/cat
- All research pages: https://easycompare.io/llms.txt
- Compare the entire market against CAT live: https://betterthanspy.com/?b=CAT&utm_source=easycompare&utm_medium=research